New York Siena : Biden +7

[oldtimer]

Biden 38 (Yep)
Trump 31
Kennedy 13
West 5

H2H

Biden 46
Trump 37

https://scri.siena.edu/2023/10/24/biden-with-worst-ever-favorability-only-leads-by-7-points-if-rfk-52-of-dems-want-party-to-nominate-someone-other-tha/

[GAinDC]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

[jaichind]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

[GAinDC]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, that didn’t take long.

You can acknowledge that Donald Trump and Joe Biden are both abysmal candidates, you know that, right?

Oh please, spare us the false equivalencies your vile cult uses to try and pretend it's members are not even worse than their despicable cult leader.

The pretense that Joe Biden is not orders of magnitude better as a human being and politician than Donald Trump is a disgusting piece of willful self-degradation.

Say it again for the folks in the back!

Told you the folks in the back wouldn’t listen to it.

Do you still think an incumbent should be renominated no matter what even when he’s polling at levels unseen since the last landslide defeat of an incumbent Democrat? (To be clear about this, he won’t lose in a landslide, but that’s on the GOP and Trump, not him.)

[Redban]

They had Biden +21% just last month though  … there was really a 12% swing in one month ?

[jaichind]

They had Biden +21% just last month though

Their Aug poll was Biden +13 which is not too far away from Biden +9 this time

[wbrocks67]

They had Biden +21% just last month though  … there was really a 12% swing in one month ?

MTE; Siena's swings in New York have been whiplashing. IIRC, it has gone +20 > +12 > +21 > +9 in the last 4 months/last 4 polls.

Also we have to take into account that RFK Jr. is still coasting on nearly complete name recognition at this point. His favorability is 41/37 here, which above all else, there is no way that nearly 80% of the entire New York state has already formed an opinion on this man.

[GAinDC]

Well, that didn’t take long.

You can acknowledge that Donald Trump and Joe Biden are both abysmal candidates, you know that, right?

Oh please, spare us the false equivalencies your vile cult uses to try and pretend it's members are not even worse than their despicable cult leader.

The pretense that Joe Biden is not orders of magnitude better as a human being and politician than Donald Trump is a disgusting piece of willful self-degradation.

Say it again for the folks in the back!

Told you the folks in the back wouldn’t listen to it.

Do you still think an incumbent should be renominated no matter what even when he’s polling at levels unseen since the last landslide defeat of an incumbent Democrat? (To be clear about this, he won’t lose in a landslide, but that’s on the GOP and Trump, not him.)

I can acknowledge that this is a bad poll for Biden but still support him because he is a much, much better choice than Donald Trump. Democrats aren’t expected to perform undying fealty to our party leaders, unlike Republicans, so I can see how my post might have confused you.

I can also recognize that this is one data point out of hundreds so far in this election cycle, and we’re still a year out from anybody casting a ballot.

[Birdish]

It's giving "Trump is up single digits in a red state" that we saw quite often in 2020.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They had Biden +21% just last month though  … there was really a 12% swing in one month ?

MTE; Siena's swings in New York have been whiplashing. IIRC, it has gone +20 > +12 > +21 > +9 in the last 4 months/last 4 polls.

Also we have to take into account that RFK Jr. is still coasting on nearly complete name recognition at this point. His favorability is 41/37 here, which above all else, there is no way that nearly 80% of the entire New York state has already formed an opinion on this man.

New York is probably around Biden +15 right now averaging these. I still think it will swing right more than other states (same with California and Texas. Florida is the only big state that doesn’t swing right significantly).

[jaichind]

It's giving "Trump is up single digits in a red state" that we saw quite often in 2020.

And 2016

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

There could be a large NYC specific shift, like Miami-Dade 2020.

[Farmlands]

It's giving "Trump is up single digits in a red state" that we saw quite often in 2020.

I still remember the legendary Trump +2 in Arkansas poll. Good times. In any case, the result will almost certainly be at least 10 points off from this, at best. A lot more polarization in presidential vs gubernatorial races.

[Vosem]

Siena historically has a good record within the state of New York, right? Although I agree that their polls this year have not been very consistent.

I also agree with jaichind that this is probably not a good poll for Trump. Many national cross-tab patterns are suggestive of a situation where Republican gains are concentrated in the largest American megacities, which are mostly not found in competitive states. NYC is the most megacity of them all and it would make sense for patterns flowing from density or recent immigrant background to hit it harder than other places.

[Redban]

Siena historically has a good record within the state of New York, right? Although I agree that their polls this year have not been very consistent.

I also agree with jaichind that this is probably not a good poll for Trump. Many national cross-tab patterns are suggestive of a situation where Republican gains are concentrated in the largest American megacities, which are mostly not found in competitive states. NYC is the most megacity of them all and it would make sense for patterns flowing from density or recent immigrant background to hit it harder than other places.

Can we trash this notion that “this poll is bad for Trump”? NY has not had an overwhelming influence on the popular vote since the 1940s. Unless Trump outright wins the state, the NY results wont swing the national vote by 1% (if even that). If we get polls with Trump within 10% in California and over 15% in Texas, then this argument can arise  

If your argument is that, “this NY poll means there is a similar swing in Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco too” … the issue is that NY is facing a more vicious anti-Democrat backlash because of the migrant crisis than those other cities are facing, and Zeldin’s performance gives Repubs a groundwork for a swing . It’s possible that NY swings right while those other cities stay as they are

[Vosem]

Siena historically has a good record within the state of New York, right? Although I agree that their polls this year have not been very consistent.

I also agree with jaichind that this is probably not a good poll for Trump. Many national cross-tab patterns are suggestive of a situation where Republican gains are concentrated in the largest American megacities, which are mostly not found in competitive states. NYC is the most megacity of them all and it would make sense for patterns flowing from density or recent immigrant background to hit it harder than other places.

Can we trash this notion that “this poll is bad for Trump”? NY has not had an overwhelming influence on the popular vote since the 1940s. Unless Trump outright wins the state, the NY results wont swing the national vote by 1% (if even that). If we get polls with Trump within 10% in California and over 15% in Texas, then this argument can arise  

If your argument is that, “this NY poll means there is a similar swing in Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco too” … the issue is that NY is facing a more vicious anti-Democrat backlash because of the migrant crisis than those other cities are facing, and Zeldin’s performance gives Repubs a groundwork for a swing

I don't know about Boston or San Francisco, but I suspect there is one in Los Angeles (very much so), Chicago, Miami, and other cities which have a bad "migrant crisis". I think it is strongest in NYC, as my own post says, but I don't think it is at all limited to NYC.

California polls largely have had Trump doing 10 points better than 2020, but nobody is taking this seriously because CA polls always overestimate Republicans and also this doesn't put Republicans anywhere close to winning statewide (whereas Zeldin, who wasn't even particularly moderate, losing 47-53 in a Leans R year feels like something a different Republican in a different year could turn into an actual victory). Maybe this time around they're right, though.

[kwabbit]

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

[Vosem]

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

I think it isn't happening evenly in every metropolitan area, with the two greatest predictors being that more educated metropolitan areas (like Boston and San Francisco) and those with less recent immigrant background are lagging, but I don't think it's only NYC which is seeing a backlash. In the context of the national environment, I think Democrats did quite poorly in both the LA and Chicago areas in 2022.

(I think this is also associated with a pretty tight pattern where areas whose population is declining start trending Republican -- it's been pretty widely reported that NYC, LA, and Chicago are all losing population. I think this is not as true for the Bay Area.)

Urban immigrant enclaves certainly do not flip "on a dime", but they can have their own trends dissociated from national ones based on parochial issues they care about.

[Devils30]

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

Yep, Dems are bleeding with working class Asians and some Puerto Ricans. That said, it does seem like Trump's 2024 gains are going to be like the 2022 midterms and happen in NY, CA, FL which will help his popular vote but not help him much in EC. I don't think the EC would bounce to having a Dem bias but it does seem that Biden is slipping less in PA/WI/MI compared to urban areas. Perhaps a Hillary style popular vote at 48-46 will do it for him.

[Devils30]

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

I think it isn't happening evenly in every metropolitan area, with the two greatest predictors being that more educated metropolitan areas (like Boston and San Francisco) and those with less recent immigrant background are lagging, but I don't think it's only NYC which is seeing a backlash. In the context of the national environment, I think Democrats did quite poorly in both the LA and Chicago areas in 2022.

(I think this is also associated with a pretty tight pattern where areas whose population is declining start trending Republican -- it's been pretty widely reported that NYC, LA, and Chicago are all losing population. I think this is not as true for the Bay Area.)

Urban immigrant enclaves certainly do not flip "on a dime", but they can have their own trends dissociated from national ones based on parochial issues they care about.

Sections of Queens might be the Starr County, TX of 2024.

[Fancyarcher]

Trump getting 37% in New York is believable, that's the same percentage he got in 2020.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

I think it isn't happening evenly in every metropolitan area, with the two greatest predictors being that more educated metropolitan areas (like Boston and San Francisco) and those with less recent immigrant background are lagging, but I don't think it's only NYC which is seeing a backlash. In the context of the national environment, I think Democrats did quite poorly in both the LA and Chicago areas in 2022.

(I think this is also associated with a pretty tight pattern where areas whose population is declining start trending Republican -- it's been pretty widely reported that NYC, LA, and Chicago are all losing population. I think this is not as true for the Bay Area.)

Urban immigrant enclaves certainly do not flip "on a dime", but they can have their own trends dissociated from national ones based on parochial issues they care about.

Sections of Queens might be the Starr County, TX of 2024.

Nah Miami-Dade is a more accurate comparison given that NYC is urban. I could see places like Washington County, GA being the starr county though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

Lol with Gillibrand Biden will win 60/40

[Redban]

Trump getting 37% in New York is believable, that's the same percentage he got in 2020.

Would people knock it off with this?

He got 38% last time where 99% of all NY voters went for either Biden or Trump. He has 37% in this poll where Biden and Trump are getting 83% of the vote altogether. That means his 37% in this poll is far more than the 38% that he got last time

To say, “well Trump is at the same percentage as he got last time. He hasn’t improved!!!”  .. that implies that literally all of the 17% remainder will break for Biden (and I mean literally in its correct usage).. But logically, Trump is going to get some of them. Say they break 70-30% in Biden’s favor. That puts Biden at 57% vs Trump’s 42%