Wales 2007; results thread

[minionofmidas]

(Cont. of post on overhang in Scottish thread)

In Wales, because the relation of direct seats to total seats is worse, and also because of Labours giant-among-dwarves-but-not-actually-a-giant position, there was a good bit more overhang.

Rather than the official
Labour 26 - PC 15 - Con 12 - LD 6 - i 1 result,
a proportional result would be
Labour 22 - PC 15 - Con 15 - LD 8,
with Labour winning two overhang seats in S Wales W, and one each in N Wales and S Wales C, and Trish Law winning an "overhang" seat in S Wales E. The Con gains come in N, SE and SW, the LD gains in SC and SW.
A Bundestag style assembly would be
Labour 26 - PC 15 - Con 15 - LD 8 - i 1
Because of the Indy win, trying to make the SE's result proportional again is a riot. Even assuming that that one indy slate was related to Trish Law (I've no idea whether that's accurate), you'd have top add 7 Labour, 4 Tory, 3 PC, 3 LD, 1 BNP, 1 UKUP and 1 Green MA to be proportional again... and then SE Wales is, of course, ridiculously overrepresented.
In N and SC Wales, Labour are next in line anyways. but in the SW, making things proportional again requires extra seats for PC, the Tories, and the BNP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently LibDem internal troubles are causing a great deal of confusion as far as coalition making goes; there are even hints that some LibDem AM's don't want to be involved in *any* coalition, period.

If all that is true, there's really only one option left, though it could take various different forms.

And along the general lines of infighting, a lot of Tory AM's aren't happy with how things turned out either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I just noticed that the Labour % is about the same as in the last two European elections. While the 2004 Euros were only published at local authority level, results in 1999 were at constituency level.



Obviously the fact that the Euro elections aren't FPTP make a difference in some areas, as does the all those Ind Lab candidates (especially in the Monmouthshire Valleys) this year. Marek too o/c. And different boundaries.

Btw, I'm still pissed off that list figures at constituency level can't be found anywhere yet; especially as the media are running with snippets (ie; BNP 9% in Wrexham and so on). Bah. Lot's of maps to be made when they are found though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh and list vote maps will be made for the following parties:

Labour
Plaid
Tories
LibDems
UKIP
BNP
Greenies
That Indie in SWE (linked to Ron Davies IIRC)
---
And maybe these as well at some point...

SLP (Scargill)
WCP (Fundies)
CPB (Commies)
ED (Monmouthshire only. They polled 0.9% in SWE, btw).
Maybe some of the other fringe parties that were in SWC only. And maybe one of the Indies in MWW if the pattern of support be of interest.

---
Strongest region for each party:

Labour: SWE or SWW
Tories: NW
Plaid: MWW
LDems: SWC
UKIP: SWE
BNP: SWW (!)
Greenies: MWW
SLP: SWE
WCP: SWE
CPB: SWE

Minor parties/Indies polled close to 20% in SWE, btw. The really odd thing is that I have a suspicion that quite a few of their voters were Labour at constituency level, while quite a few Indy voters at constituency level were Labour at list level. But until the list numbers are published at constituency level it's impossible to tell.

[Harry Hayfield]

If we are discussing alternative electoral methods, here's a couple to consider:

Closed Lists (a la Euros): Lab 19 PC 14 Con 14 Lib Dem 7 BNP 2 Green 2 UKIP 2
50% Majority Elected Method: (Impossible to calculate)
STV: (Impossible to calculate)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More LibDem internal stuff... Peter Black (list AM for SWW) has now come out formally against a coalition with Labour (and using language that hints at opposition to any coalition with anyone) and has called on Mike German to quit as leader.
He's basically been told, and publically, to shut up by Eleanor Burnham (list AM for NW).

Meanwhile, the noble Lord Dafydd El has indicated that he likes the idea of a minority Labour administration being propped up by Plaid... in return for a few constitutional concessions here and there.

[minionofmidas]

And the swings required for Labour to win less than half the seats in Wales... (ie: 19, five less than at present):
2.9 to the Tories (winning them Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd, Delyn, Gower, and Clwyd S)
or 3.3 to the LDs (winning them Newport E and Swansea W, as well as pushing Delyn and the Vale seats to the Tories)
or 4.4 to PC (winning them Neath and Caerphilly, as well as pushing Delyn and the Vale seats to the Tories. And also Gower. And Newport E to the LDs. 4.3 would do only Neath and the three stronger Tory seats, though.)
or 2.2 to whoever the strongest challenger in each constituency is (the four Tory gains except Clwyd S, plus Newport E.)

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency
Conservatives 219,003 (22.37%) winning 5 seats (+4)
Labour 314,836 (32.16%) winning 24 seats (-5)
Liberal Democrats 144,541 (14.77%) winning 3 seats (n/c)
Plaid 219,382 (22.41%) winning 7 seats (+1)
Ind 59,066 (6.03%) winning 1 seat (n/c)
UKIP 16,838 (1.72%)
English Democrats 1,867 (0.19%)
Ratepayers 2,561 (0.26%)
Others 840 (0.09%)

Regional
British National Party 42,197 (4.33%)
Conservatives 207,013 (21.25%) winning 7 seats (-4)
Christian People's Alliance 2,694 (0.28%)
Communists 3,708 (0.38%)
English Democrats 1,655 (0.17%)
Greens 33,803 (3.47%)
Ind 7,056 (0.72%)
Labour 288,954 (29.66%) winning 2 seats (+2)
Liberal Democrats 113,897 (11.69%) winning 3 seats (n/c)
Plaid 210,120 (21.57%) winning 8 seats (+2)
Respect 1,792 (0.18%)
Socialist Alternative 838 (0.09%)
Socialist Equality 292 (0.03%)
Socialist Labour 12,209 (1.25%)
UKIP 38,490 (3.95%)
Veritas 502 (0.05%)
Welsh Christian Party 8,963 (0.92%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The irritating pre-election shadow-boxing about coalitions and so on has returned and is even more irritating.
The most likely outcome still seems to be a Labour/Plaid deal of some sort, but rumours (and threats) of pretty much all other technically possible options continue to fly around.
To be honest, I have to say that I've been disappointed (but not surprised...) at quite how immature a lot of people involved in this seem to be acting.
Hopefully we'll get a clear indication of what's going on fairly soon...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Various confusing signals have come out of most of the parties in recent days.

The most recent from Plaid; after a group meeting they have decided... that they have not decided what to do. Apparently they are debating whether or not the party actually has any principles (ie; IWJ seems to like the idea of becoming First Minister in some ghastly three-party coalition that, if polls during the election are to be believed, has little support from the Welsh electorate, while some of his collegues think that this would be a bad idea) and will talk to all other parties in the Assembly about what to do next. Which is what they've been doing for the past few weeks anyway.
Meanwhile, there are indications that Morgan and German are not capable of understanding hints that they might or might not have given each other.

Etc, etc, ad nasuem and so on.

Anyway, I think its become increasingly clear that setup of the Welsh Assembly is an undemocratic joke; it seems as though that, as far as the party leaders are concerned, the sole point of having elections is to share out bargaining chips and not to determine who runs the Assembly (a task that may only be carried out in smoke filled rooms it seems). Either that or they quite genuinely think that they own their voters. Not sure which is worse actually.

I do hope that no media outlet used the expression "Wales Decides" to cover the election as it now seems pretty obvious that the decisions of the Welsh electorate are not, and were never going to be, respected by the politicians, except, perhaps by accident.

Quite a few things could be blamed for all this, but the stupid electoral system (which manages to combine the worst aspects of FPTP and the worst aspects of PR) hasn't exactly helped matters.

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, I spoke to an Assembly Staff member this afternoon (asking when the Assembly will next sit) and he said "Don't bank on anything soon!"

I have the dreadful feeling in my waters that it's going to be October 1974 all over again (but just in Wales)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, I spoke to an Assembly Staff member this afternoon (asking when the Assembly will next sit) and he said "Don't bank on anything soon!"

I have the dreadful feeling in my waters that it's going to be October 1974 all over again (but just in Wales)

I blame Peter Black

[afleitch]

Anyway, I think its become increasingly clear that setup of the Welsh Assembly is an undemocratic joke; it seems as though that, as far as the party leaders are concerned, the sole point of having elections is to share out bargaining chips and not to determine who runs the Assembly (a task that may only be carried out in smoke filled rooms it seems). Either that or they quite genuinely think that they own their voters. Not sure which is worse actually.

I do hope that no media outlet used the expression "Wales Decides" to cover the election as it now seems pretty obvious that the decisions of the Welsh electorate are not, and were never going to be, respected by the politicians, except, perhaps by accident.

Quite a few things could be blamed for all this, but the stupid electoral system (which manages to combine the worst aspects of FPTP and the worst aspects of PR) hasn't exactly helped matters.

Labour won the election in Wales; it has the right to form an administration. If it is a minority one, then that will make politics interesting but by no means unstable. Likewise in Scotland, the SNP won the election. Alex Salmond is now First Minister and is forming a minority government. It would have been nice if the Lib Dems or Conservatives had negotiated with them, but to their credit they also turned down advances from Labour to ‘usurp’ the SNP and remain in office. Labour’s victory in Wales must be respected as the SNP’s victory was respected in Scotland. I am looking forward to a minority government. Comparisons are often made with Italy, ignoring the fact that most governments collapsed because of internal divisions, defections and splits. If the SNP can avoid that, then they may do well enough to earn a stronger mandate in 2011.

My problem with the Welsh Assembly, is that its powers are too limited. While they will be expanded this year, it is not enough. Apologies in advance for making this assumption   but deal making in the Assembly is reminiscent of what occurs in council bodies, with deals, promises and unlikely alliances. Not Assembly material!

I’ve always thought a chamber of 60 is too small, in comparison to Scotland and especially in comparison to Northern Ireland (which has it’s own reasons for being quite so large) If Wales had the same proportion of regional seats to constituency seats in Scotland it would have 70 members. Yet I don’t believe that FPTP in Wales or Scotland is preferable. While it works in the UK and allows for changes in government, minorities and landslides, lets be honest in Wales and Scotland it would result in rock solid Labour dominance and in 2007 would have seen Labour as the largest party despite the SNP winning the vote. That would be unhealthy for democracy, because even in a bad year, they still win the most constituency seats.

I’m a recent convert to the merits of STV. I think it works well and still maintains a geographical link with voters. Wales would benefit from not only an 80 member Assembly, but 20 STV seats electing 4 members each. Or there abouts! Majorities would still be unlikely, but the elections would be more competitive.

And Huey Lewis would be more fun than Huw Lewis

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just to give an idea how bad things have got, this is a recent post from the blog of the political editor of BBC Wales:

Betsan Powys 16 May 07, 03:43 PM:

Negotiating teams have been chosen and sent into action. Three of the four sides at least have stopped talking about talking and started talking. Mike German must continue to talk about talking until tomorrow night's National Executive let him and his negotiating team start the real thing.

The Plaid Cymru group had a lengthy meeting this morning and having listened to Ieuan Wyn Jones stressing afterards that Plaid are talking just as intensely to the Lib Dems and the Tories as they are to Labour, it's easier to believe that the rainbow coalition isn't dead after all.

Downstairs a little group is spotted huddled over a copy of the Government of Wales Act: the Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis-Thomas, Ieuan Wyn Jones and Mike German. Were they looking for wriggle room on dates?

What of the Tories? One - who'd have little interest in a cabinet seat - suggests that the group is hostile to a rainbow coalition. The group dynamic is quite different now, with brand new constituency AMs who've just been fighting strong Plaid candidates at the election and who'd rather keep it that way. Better he thinks to watch Rhodri Morgan strike a deal with Ieuan Wyn Jones and then squeeze Plaid's vote for all it's worth come the next election.

But from others in the group - perhaps with more to gain - the mood music is quite different. A formal agreement? No way. A full on rainbow coalition? Yes but only as long as cabinet seats are involved. They'd be in it to govern. No cabinet seats, no need to apply. no other reason. Are there dissenting voices? Yes but no more than that. The group meets tomorrow.

What next? The Lib Dem Executive meet tomorrow night. The Labour group meets again lunchtime Friday, Plaid any time between Friday and the middle of next week.

No swear box here but there's a fine for using the phrase "crucial forty eight hours!"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Post-Election Fiasco update: the Tories have said that they will only enter into any agreement with Plaid if they get cabinet seats. Full stop. There is also some speculation that the LibDems are in no shape to enter into a formal coalition with any party. As for the possibility of a confidence-and-supply deal between them and Labour, even Peter Black (and on the subject of Black, that he intends to depose German as LibDem leader grows more obvious by the day...) wouldn't be (instantly) opposed if STV in local government was introduced (but obviously Labour councils aren't "too keen" on the idea...).
Meanwhile, details of the sort of deal that Morgan is offering Plaid/the LibDems have been leaked to the Western Mail... as have some critical comments by Huw Lewis about the details of the proposed deal(s). I, generally, agree with Lewis's criticisms, though I suspect he's in a minority.

There's probably some stuff I've missed. I'm still less-than-happy about what's going on.

One thing of interest is that the Tories are driving a very hard bargain (they are in a position to do so as well; after all they polled only a handful less votes than Plaid in the constituencies and actually led them on the list vote). Personally I think that Plaid would be mad to accept it (IWJ's ego can't be *that* big can he? After all, he's such a little man in all other ways), and even if they did it might be for nothing because of internal LibDem troubles.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Peter Hain has endorsed a deal between Labour and the LibDems. Not really a surprise, but this comment (the bolded bit) from him is interesting:

"I think there is a prospect of a very good agreement for stable government in which the Liberal Democrats will get some gains in which they'll have the opportunity to influence policy. "

An indication that Labour might be prepared to accept STV in local government, perhaps?

[afleitch]

An indication that Labour might be prepared to accept STV in local government, perhaps?

Good luck!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An indication that Labour might be prepared to accept STV in local government, perhaps?

Good luck!

Well, a grudging acceptence is the best possibility as far as it goes. Not to be ruled out though.

[afleitch]

An indication that Labour might be prepared to accept STV in local government, perhaps?

Good luck!

Well, a grudging acceptence is the best possibility as far as it goes. Not to be ruled out though.

It's do-able. It also maintains a close community link, sometimes closer as towns and communities are not split and parceled.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the LibDems have decided to suspend all talks with Labour and go for a crooked three party coalition with Plaid and the Tories instead.

Bastards.

"There lived a man on Highgate Mount, he won the votes but did not count."

Horace Cutler to Andrew McIntosh the day after the 1981 GLC elections. Not quite the same situation o/c, but the quote more-or-less fits (except for Highgate Mount, obviously).

[afleitch]

I can't say I'm happy. I think it is unfair and improper for the largest party not to form an administration. The attitudes of the Welsh Tories and Lib Dems are of a market contrast to the parties in Scotland....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't say I'm happy. I think it is unfair and improper for the largest party not to form an administration.

Yeah, I'll admit that partisanship is one reason why I'm as angry about this as I am (no harm in being honest), but I also feel quite genuinely offended as a voter, as a citizen and as someone who believes in democracy.

And one other thing; as someone who supports PR (and a fairly recent convert at that) I'm just a *little* bit worried about the knock on effects of this sort of thing on attempts to introduce it at Westminster.

[Verily]

I can't say I'm happy. I think it is unfair and improper for the largest party not to form an administration. The attitudes of the Welsh Tories and Lib Dems are of a market contrast to the parties in Scotland....

I can't say I'm surprised. Lib Dems in places like Montgomeryshire may be loyal to the party, but they're more Tory than Lib Dem. Really, this is a consequence of Labour angering everyone in the UK with their policies. I would be inclined to say that the largest party should not necessarily form the government given that they may not reflect the views of the majority of the population. Since I imagine the anti-Labour coalition will be highly unstable, the voters will get a chance to affirm or deny their support of Plaid-Tory-Lib Dem sooner than 2011.

Would you like to see the Radical Party in government in Serbia? They're the largest party. Should Fianna Fail have been in every Irish government since 1932? They've been the largest since then. Should the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan have still been in government in 1993 even after it was massively rejected by voters? Should the Tories have formed the government in 1923?

That said, I'd support a Labour-Lib Dem coalition over this one. I'm not sure about Labour-Plaid, but probably.

[Democratic Hawk]

All elections should be conducted under a FPTP-majority system like alternative vote or second-ballot run-off between the two highest polling candidates in any given single member constituency

There you have it! Systems, which 1) are fair in that the winning candidate ultimately secures a majority of all votes cast and which 2) retain accountability between the elected and their electorate

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Since I imagine the anti-Labour coalition will be highly unstable , the voters will get a chance to affirm or deny their support of Plaid-Tory-Lib Dem sooner than 2011.

And that can only be ultimately bad for Wales

Dave