Why is Beshear likely going to outpeform his 2019 win, despite worse fundamentals?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact it's fatigue about COVID Voters agree with Biden on Issues as keep saying. The only bragging rights are Ayotte and Justice winning and Landry

This is a warning sign to Rs that red states are vulnerable

[Xing]

I mean, Republicans did way better in gubernatorial races in MA, MD, and VT in 2018 than in the previous elections in these states, which took place during far better years for Republicans. Being a popular incumbent really makes a big difference.

Except Laura Kelly and JBE were both "popular incumbents" and did worse in their re-election bids than in their first race. If Beshear wins by a lopsided margin and Democrats also have strong showings in the VA legislative races, PA-SC, MS-GOV, etc., there’s no way to spin it as anything other than a very bad sign for Republicans nationally.

Yes, but my point was that it's not unheard of for popular governors to do even better in their re-election bids even in unfavorable years for their party. Democrats would've gotten crushed in the two races you mentioned if not for having popular incumbents. I would agree that if Democrats do well across the board this year (which I'm not sure will be the case) that it's a potentially bad sign for Republicans, though it's not necessarily predicative. I thought the same thing about a Youngkin win in Virginia in 2021, and that didn't exactly pan out in 2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

1. Incumbency: more often than not, as recent history shows, incumbent Governors are very difficult to dislodge. It also helps that Beshear is very popular in terms of approvals.

2. His campaign seems very competent and he isn't taking the race for granted, even if he is favored.

3. His polling: he is often hitting 50% or more, while Cameron hasn't exceeded 47% in any poll.

4. Cameron himself: while on paper he seemed like a strong candidate, his campaign has barely gained any traction, from what it seems, and is being outspent.

The only question is how much or how little Beshear will be elected by, but it's certainly going to be more than the sub 1% margin from 2019.