Why is Beshear likely going to outpeform his 2019 win, despite worse fundamentals?

[Matty]

1) In 2019, he was facing an incumbent with a awful approval rating
2) in 2019, he benefited from an unpopular trump in the WH

Biden's ratings in KY are probably-40 or worse, and cameron isn't as toxic.

Is there a "thing" that made besehar so liked among even center right voters in the state?

[Skill and Chance]

1. Incumbency
2. Kentucky appears to be more pro-choice than anyone would have expected given R presidential #'s.
3. R legislature with veto override ability keeps him from doing anything too controversial anyway

[Roll Roons]

Because Republicans have such huge majorities in the legislature, he can't really go ahead with trying to implement any big liberal policies and is effectively a figurehead. Despite Biden's unpopularity, there's just no good reason to fire Beshear so voters probably won't do it.

He also seems like a nice, likable and competent guy who is focused on Kentucky rather than trying to be a national figure, despite the fact that he would likely be the strongest possible Democratic presidential nominee.

[MT Treasurer]

Beshear is seen as a non-partisan but strong leader, Cameron hasn’t lived up the hype (think of his response to the abortion attacks as a striking example of this), lower turnout increasingly benefits Democrats in this day and age (this is especially true in a state like KY), and Democrats have actually done incredibly well in elections under Biden — it’s just that Biden himself is very weak.

[Duke of York]

because he's popular and has a incumbency advantage and voters likely see no reason to fire him.

Cameron has run a terrible campaign.

Just because a President is unpopular doesn't mean a popular incumbent will lose. This is like asking how did Charlie Baker do so well in Massachusetts in 2018.

[Matty]

because he's popular and has a incumbency advantage and voters likely see no reason to fire him.

Cameron has run a terrible campaign.

Just because a President is unpopular doesn't mean a popular incumbent will lose. This is like asking how did Charlie Baker do so well in Massachusetts in 2018.

Obama being toxic in kentucky in 2015 is the only reason Conway lost. Conway is a beshear clone, yet still lost

[Roll Roons]

because he's popular and has a incumbency advantage and voters likely see no reason to fire him.

Cameron has run a terrible campaign.

Just because a President is unpopular doesn't mean a popular incumbent will lose. This is like asking how did Charlie Baker do so well in Massachusetts in 2018.

Obama being toxic in kentucky in 2015 is the only reason Conway lost. Conway is a beshear clone, yet still lost

Conway was not a popular incumbent governor.

[Skill and Chance]

because he's popular and has a incumbency advantage and voters likely see no reason to fire him.

Cameron has run a terrible campaign.

Just because a President is unpopular doesn't mean a popular incumbent will lose. This is like asking how did Charlie Baker do so well in Massachusetts in 2018.

Obama being toxic in kentucky in 2015 is the only reason Conway lost. Conway is a beshear clone, yet still lost

Conway was not a popular incumbent governor.

Conway had also already done some notably incompetent things in his 2010 run against Rand Paul and underperformed (relative to the state level Dem landslide at the time) when running for reelection as AG in 2011.

[Person Man]

If it wasn't Kentucky, I would say it rhymes with sushmortion.

[Tekken_Guy]

Beshear is seen as a non-partisan but strong leader, Cameron hasn’t lived up the hype (think of his response to the abortion attacks as a striking example of this), lower turnout increasingly benefits Democrats in this day and age (this is especially true in a state like KY), and Democrats have actually done incredibly well in elections under Biden — it’s just that Biden himself is very weak.

Biden is not a weak candidate. He’s in no worse position than Obama and Trump were three years into their first term. Obama was widely expected to be in for a very tough re-election too, and Trump was looking dead on arrival for 2020 at this point, while all polls show Biden still in the fight.

[2016]

Kentucky is just a very Democratic State at the State Level compared to Federal Level (Senate + Presidential).

If Beshear wins in a couple of weeks time the Democrats would have held the Kentucky Governorship for 20 of the last 28 years.

Paul Patton (D) [1999 - 2003]
Ernie Fletcher (R) [2003 - 2007]
Steve Beshear (D) [2007 - 2015]
Matt Bevin (R) [2015 - 2019]
Andy Beshear (D) [2019 - 2027]

and 16 of those 28 years by a Beshear Family Member.

That being said Democrats haven't broken through at the Federal Level and all those Democrats who recently ran against Mitch McConnell like Bruce Lunsford (2008), Allison Lundergan-Grimes (2014) and Amy McGrath (2020) have basically disappeared.

[MT Treasurer]

Kentucky is just a very Democratic State at the State Level compared to Federal Level (Senate + Presidential).

This is R copium and you know it — Republicans are in control of all statewide offices except Governor (which they lost by the skin of their teeth against a joke incumbent who couldn’t even be bothered to run a serious campaign in either of his races) and have supermajorities in the legislature.

Both parties have been using this race as a proxy for their 2024 messaging.

[Pericles]

Beshear is seen as a non-partisan but strong leader, Cameron hasn’t lived up the hype (think of his response to the abortion attacks as a striking example of this), lower turnout increasingly benefits Democrats in this day and age (this is especially true in a state like KY), and Democrats have actually done incredibly well in elections under Biden — it’s just that Biden himself is very weak.

If Democrats keep doing well in elections, what basis is there to assume that Biden won't do well? It just defies logic about how modern American politics works.

[2016]

Beshear is seen as a non-partisan but strong leader, Cameron hasn’t lived up the hype (think of his response to the abortion attacks as a striking example of this), lower turnout increasingly benefits Democrats in this day and age (this is especially true in a state like KY), and Democrats have actually done incredibly well in elections under Biden — it’s just that Biden himself is very weak.

If Democrats keep doing well in elections, what basis is there to assume that Biden won't do well? It just defies logic about how modern American politics works.

Cameron should have never ran this year. I wonder who has given him this bad advice running for Governor. Cameron was a shoe-in, almost a lock up to win McConnells Senate Seat in 2026. If he loses by close to double digits to Beshear then he's done in Politics in KY.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cameron has frankly been a terrible candidate. Just awful.

[Senator Incitatus]

Because Republicans have such huge majorities in the legislature, he can't really go ahead with trying to implement any big liberal policies and is effectively a figurehead. Despite Biden's unpopularity, there's just no good reason to fire Beshear so voters probably won't do it.

He also seems like a nice, likable and competent guy who is focused on Kentucky rather than trying to be a national figure, despite the fact that he would likely be the strongest possible Democratic presidential nominee.

Basically the Charlie Baker factor.

[PSOL]

The fundamentals support Beshear

[Xing]

I mean, Republicans did way better in gubernatorial races in MA, MD, and VT in 2018 than in the previous elections in these states, which took place during far better years for Republicans. Being a popular incumbent really makes a big difference.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, Republicans did way better in gubernatorial races in MA, MD, and VT in 2018 than in the previous elections in these states, which took place during far better years for Republicans. Being a popular incumbent really makes a big difference.

Except Laura Kelly and JBE were both "popular incumbents" and did worse in their re-election bids than in their first race. If Beshear wins by a lopsided margin and Democrats also have strong showings in the VA legislative races, PA-SC, MS-GOV, etc., there’s no way to spin it as anything other than a very bad sign for Republicans nationally.

[EastwoodS]

Kentucky is just a very Democratic State at the State Level compared to Federal Level (Senate + Presidential).

This is R copium and you know it — Republicans are in control of all statewide offices except Governor (which they lost by the skin of their teeth against a joke incumbent who couldn’t even be bothered to run a serious campaign in either of his races) and have supermajorities in the legislature.

Both parties have been using this race as a proxy for their 2024 messaging.

Um.. he's not coping. Kentucky has had 3 republican governors in its history: Louie B. Nunn in 1967-1971, Ernie Fletcher 2003-2007, and Bevin 2015-2019. None of these men would go on to win reelection, and up until 2016, the state legislature was often dominated by democrats. It make every sense in the world for a Democrat to win the gubernatorial election in November. Kentuckians like state-level democrat's. So while it's not "super Democratic" that's going way too far, it was historically fairly moderate.
Kentuckians don't vote for governors based on national politics. Kentuckians vote based on state issues still. Why is that so hard to grasp..

[MT Treasurer]

Kentucky is just a very Democratic State at the State Level compared to Federal Level (Senate + Presidential).

This is R copium and you know it — Republicans are in control of all statewide offices except Governor (which they lost by the skin of their teeth against a joke incumbent who couldn’t even be bothered to run a serious campaign in either of his races) and have supermajorities in the legislature.

Both parties have been using this race as a proxy for their 2024 messaging.

Um.. he's not coping. Kentucky has had 3 republican governors in its history: Louie B. Nunn in 1967-1973, Ernie Fletcher 2003-2007, and Bevin 2015-2019. None of these men would go on to win reelection, and up until 2016, the state legislature was often dominated by democrats. It make every sense in the world for a Democrat to win the gubernatorial election in November. Kentuckians like state-level democrat's. So while it's not "super Democratic" that's going way too far, it was historically fairly moderate.
Kentuckians don't vote for governors based on national politics. Kentuckians vote based on state issues still. Why is that so hard to grasp..

I know all of this but I don’t care what has "historically" been the case. This is like saying some dude who just lost his virginity has "historically" been a virgin. Delaware and Missouri had "historically" been bellwether states.. until they weren’t. WV has "historically" had far more D Senators than R Senators.. but we all know that Manchin will almost certainly still lose to Justice.

KY is a deeply Republican state that, yes, is usually less Republican at the state level but hardly overwhelmingly so. And the gap has been narrowing for quite some time — this is why I pointed out the GOP sweep of every other statewide executive office and the GOP margins in the legislature.

The truth is that Republicans can’t win elections anymore unless they’re handed to them on a silver platter (like in 2016), and even then, they’re trying their utmost to blow it. The party is in really, really bad shape, which has been true for a long time now, and it does you no good to pretend that everything’s okay.

It’s not even like Beshear is some conservadem or anything. The guy holds standard D positions on nearly all issues.

[EastwoodS]

Kentucky is just a very Democratic State at the State Level compared to Federal Level (Senate + Presidential).

This is R copium and you know it — Republicans are in control of all statewide offices except Governor (which they lost by the skin of their teeth against a joke incumbent who couldn’t even be bothered to run a serious campaign in either of his races) and have supermajorities in the legislature.

Both parties have been using this race as a proxy for their 2024 messaging.

Um.. he's not coping. Kentucky has had 3 republican governors in its history: Louie B. Nunn in 1967-1973, Ernie Fletcher 2003-2007, and Bevin 2015-2019. None of these men would go on to win reelection, and up until 2016, the state legislature was often dominated by democrats. It make every sense in the world for a Democrat to win the gubernatorial election in November. Kentuckians like state-level democrat's. So while it's not "super Democratic" that's going way too far, it was historically fairly moderate.
Kentuckians don't vote for governors based on national politics. Kentuckians vote based on state issues still. Why is that so hard to grasp..

I know all of this but I don’t care what has "historically" been the case. This is like saying some dude who just lost his virginity has "historically" been a virgin. Delaware and Missouri had "historically" been bellwether states.. until they weren’t. WV has "historically" had far more D Senators than R Senators.. but we all know that Manchin will almost certainly still lose to Justice.

KY is a deeply Republican state that, yes, is usually less Republican at the state level but hardly overwhelmingly so. And the gap has been narrowing for quite some time — this is why I pointed out the GOP sweep of every other statewide executive office and the GOP margins in the legislature.

The truth is that Republicans can’t win elections anymore unless they’re handed to them on a silver platter (like in 2016), and even then, they’re trying their utmost to blow it. The party is in really, really bad shape, which has been true for a long time now, and it does you no good to pretend that everything’s okay.

I just struggle to believe this race was winnable for republicans, no matter what.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It’s not even like Beshear is some conservadem or anything. The guy holds standard D positions on nearly all issues.

He signed a really bad Republican tax bill. But I think this hurts him politically.

[oldkyhome]

It’s easy to forget Andy wasn’t particularly popular in 2019, compared to where he is now.

[Pollster]

Spending.

Bevin and the RGA/Republican-aligned groups narrowly outspent Beshear and the DGA/Dem-aligned groups in 2019.

As of this writing, Beshear/Dems have outspent Cameron/Republicans by almost $20 million, and have a nearly $5 million advantage in future TV ad reservations (which is not the only kind of spending, but certainly the most important) through election day.