When will Biden regain the lead on RCP?

[soundchaser]

Not next week but the following, following a Trump conviction in New York.

Voters don't care about Trump's conviction, it has no impact on their lives. Most of the country views it as a politically motivated witchhunt including many swing voters.

They care about crime, immigration, and the prices of necessities such as gas, housing, and food far more.

The (admittedly limited) polling we have on that issue suggests otherwise!

[YE]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

Yeah, I have accepted the fact Trump will be elected. It boggles my mind, but we're almost to June of the election year and Biden has not consistently led in polls at any point. I don't even see a conviction stopping Trump. People seem willing to elect a convicted criminal because he promises to bring the price of food down even though he won't do any of that.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I don't get why people are saying RCP is biased when 538 has showed Trump leading by similar amounts for the last 3 months, which is exactly what RCP is showing.

[TechbroMBA]

Poll are Tobias.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

They Pred Laxalt to win and Real clear had 53RS and 230RH does this have to do with inflation

[Minnesota Mike]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

That is not a huge miss.

[soundchaser]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

That is not a huge miss.

Yeah, it's a miss of 2.7 points. Compare that to their 9.6-point miss in MI-GOV 2022...

[wbrocks67]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

This- unless Biden has an unequivocal lead, they'll try and make Trump hang on as much as humanly possible.

Same reason why they give a spot in their average to every new Harris incarnation but don't do the same for other pollsters (Ipsos for example) that also have a lot of clients.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Never.

[Woody]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

Of course not. There's not enough polls at the moment to give him a lead at all.

[TodayJunior]

Probably once early voting actually begins …. You know, actual votes.

Dems bank their votes early and will do so again. Republicans really need to embrace early
Voting and vote by mail if they want to have half a hallelujah of winning nationally ever again.

[Dumbo]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

Yeah, I have accepted the fact Trump will be elected. It boggles my mind, but we're almost to June of the election year and Biden has not consistently led in polls at any point. I don't even see a conviction stopping Trump. People seem willing to elect a convicted criminal because he promises to bring the price of food down even though he won't do any of that.

They all know that Trump is a liar but they love him. Trump the notorious liar would look so old and wrinkled against a young powerful energetic candidate but the Democrats decided to nominate an old man with mental problems. Almost every Democrat wants Biden to faint tomorrow and drop out of the race.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

That is not a huge miss.

Yeah, it's a miss of 2.7 points. Compare that to their 9.6-point miss in MI-GOV 2022...

Presidential elections are not comparable to midterms, and states such as OH, IA, and WI also saw high-single-digit Biden overestimation. RCP doesn't have a record of consistently overestimating either side.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

This- unless Biden has an unequivocal lead, they'll try and make Trump hang on as much as humanly possible.

Same reason why they give a spot in their average to every new Harris incarnation but don't do the same for other pollsters (Ipsos for example) that also have a lot of clients.

Why has 538 never shown a Biden lead then?

The real answer is, Trump is leading in a greater percentage of high-quality polls than Biden is, making it a mathematical impossibility for Biden in his current state to regain the lead.

[Skill and Chance]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

They hugely overestimated Biden in 2020, having him lead the PV by 7 when he ultimately only won by 4. They were dead on nationally in 2022.

That is not a huge miss.

Yeah, it's a miss of 2.7 points. Compare that to their 9.6-point miss in MI-GOV 2022...

It was the biggest presidential election NPV polling miss since 1996.

[wbrocks67]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

This- unless Biden has an unequivocal lead, they'll try and make Trump hang on as much as humanly possible.

Same reason why they give a spot in their average to every new Harris incarnation but don't do the same for other pollsters (Ipsos for example) that also have a lot of clients.

Why has 538 never shown a Biden lead then?

The real answer is, Trump is leading in a greater percentage of high-quality polls than Biden is, making it a mathematical impossibility for Biden in his current state to regain the lead.

That's not my point. My point was that until Biden has an unequivocal lead, RCP will do what it can to make it look like Trump is winning. There have been many times where Biden has nearly overtaken him on RCP but then RCP fulls its usual BS. Just take the Emerson poll out today - they make sure to put Trump +2 and not the tied leaned vote. They continually do things like that to make sure Trump stays in the lead. I'm not saying Biden should be in the lead in their average right now, but even if he was supposed to be, they'd make sure to only include the polls to keep Trump afloat as long as possible.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

This- unless Biden has an unequivocal lead, they'll try and make Trump hang on as much as humanly possible.

Same reason why they give a spot in their average to every new Harris incarnation but don't do the same for other pollsters (Ipsos for example) that also have a lot of clients.

Why has 538 never shown a Biden lead then?

The real answer is, Trump is leading in a greater percentage of high-quality polls than Biden is, making it a mathematical impossibility for Biden in his current state to regain the lead.

That's not my point. My point was that until Biden has an unequivocal lead, RCP will do what it can to make it look like Trump is winning. There have been many times where Biden has nearly overtaken him on RCP but then RCP fulls its usual BS. Just take the Emerson poll out today - they make sure to put Trump +2 and not the tied leaned vote. They continually do things like that to make sure Trump stays in the lead. I'm not saying Biden should be in the lead in their average right now, but even if he was supposed to be, they'd make sure to only include the polls to keep Trump afloat as long as possible.

It’s not like Biden is doing better on 538. In fact, by many metrics he’s doing worse on 538.

I don’t like 538 btw. RCP all the way - been a loyal follower since 2010.

[Tekken_Guy]

RCPwill never let Biden have a lead.

This- unless Biden has an unequivocal lead, they'll try and make Trump hang on as much as humanly possible.

Same reason why they give a spot in their average to every new Harris incarnation but don't do the same for other pollsters (Ipsos for example) that also have a lot of clients.

Why has 538 never shown a Biden lead then?

The real answer is, Trump is leading in a greater percentage of high-quality polls than Biden is, making it a mathematical impossibility for Biden in his current state to regain the lead.

That's not my point. My point was that until Biden has an unequivocal lead, RCP will do what it can to make it look like Trump is winning. There have been many times where Biden has nearly overtaken him on RCP but then RCP fulls its usual BS. Just take the Emerson poll out today - they make sure to put Trump +2 and not the tied leaned vote. They continually do things like that to make sure Trump stays in the lead. I'm not saying Biden should be in the lead in their average right now, but even if he was supposed to be, they'd make sure to only include the polls to keep Trump afloat as long as possible.

Or the Cook poll from yesterday, which they just added today because they’re good for Trump in PA and MI.