In light of Shawn Wilson getting either 44.0% (primary) or 35.6% (general) of the Edwards vote, I thought I'd sniff around to find candidates from an incumbent party who got a vote
total less than 50% of the incumbent Governor in the prior election, i.e., a total collapse.
I know this isn't a perfect comparison given Louisiana's system, but Wilson was essentially the Democratic nominee, and I wanted to point out that it is extremely rare in other states. (Even Dan Cox got
slightly more than half of the Hogan vote. Even
Cruz Bustamante got more than half of Davis voters in the 2003 recall.)
Incumbent party losses are often not a case of the incumbent vote cratering but by the opposition really gaining. Terry McAuliffe actually got
more votes than Northam in 2021, and Bevin
gained votes in 2019 despite his (alleged) unpopularity.
Here races I found
since 1990.
In more than half of these cases, the presence of a third party in one or both races accounts for the decline. Edward DiPrete is the
only one who was actually the incumbent himself, and that's basically because of two-year elections in Rhode Island:
Candidate | State | Year | Percentage | Prior Vote | Vote Total |
Susan Collins | ME | 1994 | 48.4% | 243,766 | 117,990 |
Geoff Diehl | MA | 2022 | 48.2% | 1,781,341 | 859,343 |
Tim Penny | MN | 2002 | 47.1% | 773,713 | 364,534 |
Eunice Groark | CT | 1994 | 47.0% | 460,576 | 216,585 |
Edward DiPrete | RI | 1990 | 45.3% | 203,550 | 92,177 |
Mike McWherter | TN | 2010 | 42.5% | 1,247,491 | 529,851 |
Bruce Morrison | CT | 1990 | 41.1% | 575,638 | 236,641 |
Leslie Petersen | WY | 2010 | 31.9% | 135,516 | 43,240 |
Feel free to point out any I missed or go back further. I may return to expand the chart. (Fun Fact: In Mississippi, 1951, Democratic nominee Hugh White only got 26% of the vote that Fielding Wright received in 1947—and won the election. That was because Wright's election coincided with a five-way special election for the U.S. Senate. Otherwise, general elections in the solid South usually had abysmal turnout.)