Incumbent party candidate getting less than half their predecessor's vote
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 09:03:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Incumbent party candidate getting less than half their predecessor's vote
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Incumbent party candidate getting less than half their predecessor's vote  (Read 260 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,506
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 17, 2023, 10:01:53 PM »
« edited: October 17, 2023, 10:08:58 PM by Senator Incitatus »

In light of Shawn Wilson getting either 44.0% (primary) or 35.6% (general) of the Edwards vote, I thought I'd sniff around to find candidates from an incumbent party who got a vote total less than 50% of the incumbent Governor in the prior election, i.e., a total collapse.

I know this isn't a perfect comparison given Louisiana's system, but Wilson was essentially the Democratic nominee, and I wanted to point out that it is extremely rare in other states. (Even Dan Cox got slightly more than half of the Hogan vote. Even Cruz Bustamante got more than half of Davis voters in the 2003 recall.)

Incumbent party losses are often not a case of the incumbent vote cratering but by the opposition really gaining. Terry McAuliffe actually got more votes than Northam in 2021, and Bevin gained votes in 2019 despite his (alleged) unpopularity.

Here races I found since 1990.
In more than half of these cases, the presence of a third party in one or both races accounts for the decline. Edward DiPrete is the only one who was actually the incumbent himself, and that's basically because of two-year elections in Rhode Island:

CandidateStateYearPercentagePrior VoteVote Total
Susan CollinsME199448.4%243,766117,990
Geoff DiehlMA202248.2%1,781,341859,343
Tim PennyMN200247.1%773,713364,534
Eunice GroarkCT199447.0%460,576216,585
Edward DiPreteRI199045.3%203,55092,177
Mike McWherterTN201042.5%1,247,491529,851
Bruce MorrisonCT199041.1%575,638236,641
Leslie PetersenWY201031.9%135,51643,240

Feel free to point out any I missed or go back further. I may return to expand the chart. (Fun Fact: In Mississippi, 1951, Democratic nominee Hugh White only got 26% of the vote that Fielding Wright received in 1947—and won the election. That was because Wright's election coincided with a five-way special election for the U.S. Senate. Otherwise, general elections in the solid South usually had abysmal turnout.)
Logged
Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
johnzaharoff
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 955


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2023, 10:36:28 PM »

Maine 1994 is just such a weird election, possibly benefiting of its own post at some point. The winner, King, won with less than 36% of the vote. Collins would two years latter more than double her vote share and become Senator defeating former governor and 1994 runner up Brennan, despte 1996 not being as good for the GOP as 1994. Collins and King of course now serve in the Senate together and have had a fairly close relationship.

Additionally at the same time the GOP saw its vote share halved in the Gov race they picked up the Senate seat with  the first lady of Maine running in an open seat.

It had most of Main's prominent politicians of since 1970 involved in some way.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 11 queries.