Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) announces she will not run for reelection

[JMT]

As I said:
https://twitter.com/AbrahamHamadeh/status/1714432657223016506

Republican voters are cultish now, but it feels so wrong for candidates to say they're running to serve a particular individual. Surely they should be running because they have policies they believe in and want to make their constituents' lives better?

Right? Isn’t it so pathetic that people a). believe candidates are being authentic when they say things like this and b). actually find this appealing? It’s so bizarre that the entire Republican Party has become so fixated on one individual.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

As I said:
https://twitter.com/AbrahamHamadeh/status/1714432657223016506

He only lost by less than 200 Votes so he probably wins this Seat!

Hamadeh will easily win the general, but I don’t think he has the primary in the bag.

Lake endorsed him, which may be all he needs.

Almost certainly gets Trump's as well

Only if Masters doesn't get in.

[xavier110]

This district is definitely trending toward Ds. Hobbs actually had 2nd biggest swing her way vs Biden/Trump in this CD, after CD6 (which Ciscomani may lose in 2024).

I’d guess it’s a 6-3 D/R map in AZ before redistricting.

[windjammer]

Btw, Hamadeh is the exact kind of person that I think would likely end up being an underperformer and could plausibly cause Republicans to lose this seat earlier than they should.

He's clearly a Lunatic but he's clearly someone who isn't completely radioactive with the suburban moderates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are dropping like flies like 2018 inevitable what 24 will turnout

[Tekken_Guy]

This district is definitely trending toward Ds. Hobbs actually had 2nd biggest swing her way vs Biden/Trump in this CD, after CD6 (which Ciscomani may lose in 2024).

I’d guess it’s a 6-3 D/R map in AZ before redistricting.

What about Andy Biggs’ district?

[xavier110]

This district is definitely trending toward Ds. Hobbs actually had 2nd biggest swing her way vs Biden/Trump in this CD, after CD6 (which Ciscomani may lose in 2024).

I’d guess it’s a 6-3 D/R map in AZ before redistricting.

What about Andy Biggs’ district?

It swung 2 points toward Hobbs vs Biden. (every district but AZ-2 and AZ-9 swung toward Hobbs.) But she still lost Biggs’ district by 15 points vs 10 points for Lesko’s. I don’t know if Ds can come overcome a 15-pt deficit in AZ-5 over the next decade, but they - aka Kelly and Fontes - have proven already that they can get to almost a 5-pt deficit in AZ-8, which seems more doable.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1714405971219382626

If there's anyone who could lose this seat, it'd be Masters. This seat iirc has a ton of retirement communities. If he somehow becomes nominee, I'd expect Dems to have his statements in favor of privatizing social security blasting on all airwaves nonstop.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1714405971219382626

If there's anyone who could lose this seat, it'd be Masters. This seat iirc has a ton of retirement communities. If he somehow becomes nominee, I'd expect Dems to have his statements in favor of privatizing social security blasting on all airwaves nonstop.

He can also be attacked as a carpetbagger: https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1714410659859828930

[Oryxslayer]

Masters is officially running, despite living in Tuscon.

In theory this matters less in high-transplant AZ then in the midwest, see the actions of Ann Kirkpatrick for example. However, it will almost certainly become an anchor around his neck. This is because State House Speaker Ben Toma is also going to run, and he actually represents Glendale and Peoria.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1714405971219382626

If there's anyone who could lose this seat, it'd be Masters. This seat iirc has a ton of retirement communities. If he somehow becomes nominee, I'd expect Dems to have his statements in favor of privatizing social security blasting on all airwaves nonstop.

He can also be attacked as a carpetbagger: https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1714410659859828930

Those suburbs are filled with migrants from SoCal and transplant retirees from the Midwest. I doubt they care that much about someone carpetbagging from a different part of the state.

[xavier110]

This is gonna be a weird, weird race. No idea who is favored between Masters and Hamadeh. Each has his own vulnerabilities …I’m assuming they suck the air out of the race, leaving Toma and actual local candidates unable to break through.

[Oryxslayer]

This is gonna be a weird, weird race. No idea who is favored between Masters and Hamadeh. Each has his own vulnerabilities …I’m assuming they suck the air out of the race, leaving Toma and actual local candidates unable to break through.

Its either that or they beat each other up so much that Toma or someone else exploits the lack of attention, similar to Braun in Indiana 2018.

[MargieCat]

Toma endorsed DeSantis, if I'm not mistaking.

I expect Trump, Lake, Ward, Rogers, and TPUSA to really push Hamadeh.

Wouldn't be surprised if they bully Masters into suspending his run here.

It would be interesting if this turns into a proxy MAGA vs. establishment race with Hamadeh vs. Toma. It's the new Lake vs. KTR primary.

[Atlas Force]

Hamadeh would be the first Muslim Republican in Congress.

This is gonna be a weird, weird race. No idea who is favored between Masters and Hamadeh. Each has his own vulnerabilities …I’m assuming they suck the air out of the race, leaving Toma and actual local candidates unable to break through.

Its either that or they beat each other up so much that Toma or someone else exploits the lack of attention, similar to Braun in Indiana 2018.

That part is already happening: https://twitter.com/AbrahamHamadeh/status/1717606770708029882

[JMT]

Toma endorsed DeSantis, if I'm not mistaking.

I expect Trump, Lake, Ward, Rogers, and TPUSA to really push Hamadeh.

Wouldn't be surprised if they bully Masters into suspending his run here.

It would be interesting if this turns into a proxy MAGA vs. establishment race with Hamadeh vs. Toma. It's the new Lake vs. KTR primary.

Yeah this will be interesting. I could see this still being a 3-way race, with MAGA types (Trump, Lake, Rogers etc) backing Hamadeh, the establishment/local officials backing Toma, and the more classic “Tea Party” types (e.g., Club for Growth, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee etc) backing Blake Masters.

Ultimately, I think Hamadeh is the favorite to win.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

How much did Hamadeh win the seat in his AG bid?

[xavier110]

How much did Hamadeh win the seat in his AG bid?

Do you mean primary or general?

For the general, here’s how AZ-08 went:

GOV: Lake +11
SEN: Masters +7
SOS: Finchem +5
AG: Hamadeh +12
SUPINT: Horne +11

It was Trump +13/14 in 2020.

It’s funny to me how the press keeps declaring this a safe GOP seat. I mean, I guess, sure, but… it’s clearly inching toward likely/lean R status. When you have single digit margins for statewide candidates, is it really safe R?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

How much did Hamadeh win the seat in his AG bid?

Do you mean primary or general?

For the general, here’s how AZ-08 went:

GOV: Lake +11
SEN: Masters +7
SOS: Finchem +5
AG: Hamadeh +12
SUPINT: Horne +11

It was Trump +13/14 in 2020.

It’s funny to me how the press keeps declaring this a safe GOP seat. I mean, I guess, sure, but… it’s clearly inching toward likely/lean R status. When you have single digit margins for statewide candidates, is it really safe R?

Yea I’d be curious if/when Hamadeh is the nominee how “safe” he makes it

[Oryxslayer]

Senator Anthony Kern of district 27 is running. He argues his long service for the region, recent results from 2022, and past Trump endorsements make him the principled conservative option. The clown car expands.

[xavier110]

He’s worse than Hamadeh and Masters, lol

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Senator Anthony Kern of district 27 is running. He argues his long service for the region, recent results from 2022, and past Trump endorsements make him the principled conservative option. The clown car expands.

Is he an idiot? Why is he running lmao.

[brucejoel99]

Senator Anthony Kern of district 27 is running. He argues his long service for the region, recent results from 2022, and past Trump endorsements make him the principled conservative option. The clown car expands.

Is he an idiot? Why is he running lmao.

The 1992 Wisconsin Senate Democratic Primary & 2018 Indiana Senate Republican Primary.

See:

This is gonna be a weird, weird race. No idea who is favored between Masters and Hamadeh. Each has his own vulnerabilities …I’m assuming they suck the air out of the race, leaving Toma and actual local candidates unable to break through.

Its either that or they beat each other up so much that Toma or someone else exploits the lack of attention, similar to Braun in Indiana 2018.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1719797579003859133

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1719797579003859133

Can he make the district competitive if he wins the primary or has he rehabilitated his image?