Why Youngkin keeps advocating 15 week abortion ban before the election?

[David Hume]

Does he really think it is a winning message? I understand he may indeed want to do it, but the he needs to win both Houses first. Some key districts are upscale suburban. How could this play well there? Is he that delusional?
https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714661451846078895

[Progressive Pessimist]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Because he supports it and either
A- Feels like it won't make much of a difference
B- Feels Strongly enough about it that he doesn't care about electoral consequences

[David Hume]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

[Progressive Pessimist]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

Hubris.

[Red Wall]

Because it hasn't made him any less popular

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because it hasn't made him any less popular

He is certainly testing that. McAuliffe brought up abortion at times in 2021 and I have to wonder if some voters are remorseful for not listening then.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

[wbrocks67]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

[David Hume]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

[Skill and Chance]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

I don't think it was crazy or unwinnable to run on a 15 week limit in VA, but he may have created an EV/PV style problem for his party for this reason.  FWIW 2021 was like an R+4 PV and they only won the HoD 52/48 through recounts.  The map was if anything more R back then, too.

[David Hume]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

I don't think it was crazy or unwinnable to run on a 15 week limit in VA, but he may have created an EV/PV style problem for his party for this reason.  FWIW 2021 was like an R+4 PV and they only won the HoD 52/48 through recounts.  The map was if anything more R back then, too.

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714661451846078895

[Skill and Chance]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

I don't think it was crazy or unwinnable to run on a 15 week limit in VA, but he may have created an EV/PV style problem for his party for this reason.  FWIW 2021 was like an R+4 PV and they only won the HoD 52/48 through recounts.  The map was if anything more R back then, too.

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714661451846078895

My point is that the PV is only D+1 (consistently now, in pretty much every poll of this that has ever been released)!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

I don't think it was crazy or unwinnable to run on a 15 week limit in VA, but he may have created an EV/PV style problem for his party for this reason.  FWIW 2021 was like an R+4 PV and they only won the HoD 52/48 through recounts.  The map was if anything more R back then, too.

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714661451846078895

My point is that the PV is only D+1 (consistently now, in pretty much every poll of this that has ever been released)!

My guess right now is a tied PV, 21 D Senate, and 50-50 House.

[David Hume]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

I don't think it was crazy or unwinnable to run on a 15 week limit in VA, but he may have created an EV/PV style problem for his party for this reason.  FWIW 2021 was like an R+4 PV and they only won the HoD 52/48 through recounts.  The map was if anything more R back then, too.

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714661451846078895

My point is that the PV is only D+1 (consistently now, in pretty much every poll of this that has ever been released)!

If he didn't campaign on abortion ban, he may actually flip the sensate and keep the house.

[Skill and Chance]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

I don't think it was crazy or unwinnable to run on a 15 week limit in VA, but he may have created an EV/PV style problem for his party for this reason.  FWIW 2021 was like an R+4 PV and they only won the HoD 52/48 through recounts.  The map was if anything more R back then, too.

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714661451846078895

My point is that the PV is only D+1 (consistently now, in pretty much every poll of this that has ever been released)!

If he didn't campaign on abortion ban, he may actually flip the sensate and keep the house.

Perhaps, but the math starts to look a lot different if Republicans have accepted that the state senate is out of reach absent something extraordinary and are playing to hold or at least tie the HoD.  There are a ton of 30-40% black/Hispanic seats near the median in the HoD that extend into some rural areas as well.  Those districts might actually be more pro-life than traditionally Republican.  If you don't expect to make much headway in the suburbs anyway, this is a reasonable strategy. 

The risk is driving up college turnout or blowing narrow Biden districts in outer NOVA.  The major downstate college town seats in the HoD are well right of median and showing unremarkable tunout so far, but the latter risk might actually be playing out in HD-30.  Overall, this approach worked for Youngkin as well.  He didn't gain as much you would expect in Richmond, college towns, and parts of NOVA but made up for it everywhere else.

[Person Man]

He is overconfident that his party can win in spite of that because muh DeSantis, DeWine, and Kemp; probably.

I say, let him. If it's a bad year for his party, ultimately, it will have proved him to be a lucky candidate back in 2021 rather than a truly formidable one.

He should know well enough that his state is well to the left of these ones. And even these governors did not campaign on abortion. I can understand that Youngkin would ban it after he get trifecta, but why campaign on it before election???

His state is to the right of Florida on the abortion issue.

Not really, a 15-week ban is at 39/54 in the new Wason poll. VA seems pretty pro-choice.

FL is pro-choice +16. VA is only pro-choice +13, according to aggregate of 3 polls.

VA may have a lot of prolifers in the deep red rurals, but they don't matter for legislative elections. What decide the control are the few suburban seats, which abortion is toxic.

DeSantis can afford to lose tons of suburban seats since he supermajorities of over 2:1 margin. Youngkin cannot.

I don't think it was crazy or unwinnable to run on a 15 week limit in VA, but he may have created an EV/PV style problem for his party for this reason.  FWIW 2021 was like an R+4 PV and they only won the HoD 52/48 through recounts.  The map was if anything more R back then, too.

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714661451846078895

My point is that the PV is only D+1 (consistently now, in pretty much every poll of this that has ever been released)!

If he didn't campaign on abortion ban, he may actually flip the sensate and keep the house.

Perhaps, but the math starts to look a lot different if Republicans have accepted that the state senate is out of reach absent something extraordinary and are playing to hold or at least tie the HoD.  There are a ton of 30-40% black/Hispanic seats near the median in the HoD that extend into some rural areas as well.  Those districts might actually be more pro-life than traditionally Republican.  If you don't expect to make much headway in the suburbs anyway, this is a reasonable strategy. 

The risk is driving up college turnout or blowing narrow Biden districts in outer NOVA.  The major downstate college town seats in the HoD are well right of median and showing unremarkable tunout so far, but the latter risk might actually be playing out in HD-30.  Overall, this approach worked for Youngkin as well.  He didn't gain as much you would expect in Richmond, college towns, and parts of NOVA but made up for it everywhere else.

So going all in on abortion is, in your mind, a circle the wagons type of thing?

[DaleCooper]

He's just being plain ol' silly. It's part of his appeal.