What does the LA election tell us about the remaining 2023 races?

[David Hume]

I moved my rating of MS from likely to save R, KY from lean D to toss up, and a few changes in VA with large minorities.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

[Birdish]

Nothing.

[Skill and Chance]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

[David Hume]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

I have SD 16 and 31 toss up, SD 24 tilt R. HD 82 and 97 tilt R, HD 22 lean R, HD 65 toss up

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not 2023 races, but those black belt seats that are low dd Biden are not safe

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Absolutely nothing about any races in 2023 or 2024

[Skill and Chance]

OK, so going into a bit more detail on the VA legislative races.

HoD:  The Republican path to a hold probably just got a seat or 2 easier.  I would say it's back to more of a pure toss up overall vs. Lean D like some of the ratings had it.  Of note:

HD-82: Petersburg and surrounding rural areas south of the Richmond suburbs, R incumbent with little known Dem challenger who won the primary out of nowhere (Biden +10.7, Youngkin +2, 2022 House Dems +1)- A lot of analysts have this as a toss up and close to the decisive seat, probably because they are leaning on the Biden #'s.  I think it should be at least Lean R now.

HD-84: Suffolk and surrounding rural areas west of the Hampton Roads cities, technically no incumbent, but a Dem incumbent from a nearby district on the old map moved here to run (Biden +16.4, McAuliffe +2.3, 2022 House Dems +12)- This is probably the single best opportunity for an R upset in an expected D seat.  Dems are heavily dependent on rural black turnout here and the Dem candidate is extremely liberal (professional activist background, including organizing BLM protests in 2020).  He also just moved to the district this year from a near unanimous Dem seat he won on the previous map.  For all of these reasons, this was only being treated as Lean D and it might even be a toss up now.    

HD-89: Parts of Chesapeake and Portsmouth extending into surrounding rural areas, no incumbent (Biden +2.4, Youngkin +7.5, 2022 House Dems +2)- For some reason, this was being treated by some analysts as only Lean R.  I doubt it will even be competitive.

HD-94: Part of Norfolk, no incumbent (Biden +16.6, McAuliffe +4, 2022 House Dems +14)- not overly dependent on black turnout, includes a number of strong Dem trending suburban areas, probably still safe Dem.

HD-97: Inland part of Virginia Beach, R incumbent (Biden +12.3,  Youngkin  +2.2, 2022 House Dems +5)-  The CW is this would be a bit left of the decisive seat.  It is almost entirely urban, so it may not be subject to the same risks as the seats above, but it's still at least somewhat dependent on high black turnout/Dem margin.  I could see it actually being slightly right of the decisive seat.


The other Southside/Hampton Roads Dem seats are all Biden +20ish or better and double digits for 2022 House Dems, so probably little or no risk there.  

There is also a plurality Hispanic seat in NOVA that includes Manassas where the margin could be an interesting test case for reverse Dobbs backlash among Catholic Dems, but the toplines are just so Dem there's no way it flips and that area isn't exactly known for being devoutly religious.

Note Dems could still make up for this statewide by winning some Biden +5ish suburban seats around Richmond and NOVA.  


State Senate: Overall, much less Dem exposure to a rural non-white R shift as the 2.5X larger district size means the VRA seats in this chamber are all at least Biden +20ish and all include major cities.  Of  note:

SD-17: Southside VA from Suffolk to west of Emporia, no incumbent (Biden +7.0, Youngkin +5, 2022 House Dems +1)- This was already considered Lean R and the Louisiana results probably just reinforced the CW that the Biden numbers in a seat like this one are null and void going forward.  I would put it at Likely R now.

SD-24: Williamsburg area to northern Hampton Roads, Dem incumbent (Biden +8.8, Youngkin +3, 2022 House Dems +1)- This was widely considered to be the most likely 22nd Dem seat (so not strictly needed for control).  It might move to 23rd now.  Dems do have some real exposure here to lower black turnout/Dem margin, but they could counter it with strong college turnout in Williamsburg and/or from the surrounding suburbs that have moved notably Dem in the Trump era.  Tilt R would be reasonable.

SD-27: Fredericksburg and surrounding outer NOVA suburbs (Biden +5.8, Youngkin +8.5, 2022 House Dems +2.2)- Notable because it's quite possible this now jumps ahead of SD-24 for the most likely 22nd Dem seat.  There's a lot going on in this district.  On the one hand, that's a big Youngkin margin.  On the other hand, the 2022 result suggests significant Dobbs backlash.  A pro-choice independent on the ballot would seem to hurt Dem chances, but the very out-there Republican who narrowly lost the primary (practically his entire campaign was that the government should have completely ignored COVID) is also running a write-in campaign.  The Dem candidate is a veteran and small business owner who gives off moderate vibes.

In any event, the overall outlook for control of the chamber would still be Lean D, because R's would still need a Biden +13.1 NOVA upscale suburban seat or a Biden +16.7 Richmond upscale suburban seat for control.

[wbrocks67]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

I'm quite confused as to why people are making such changes, considering this isn't about "oh minority turnout is low" .... there is a reason here, and a lot of context, that does not crossover to pretty much any race.

The bottom line in LA is that Democrats did not invest. There wasn't a turnout operation; given how awful NOLA turnout was. Wilson barely had money; Landry did. RGA spent, DGA didn't. This isn't very hard to understand. 2022 showed us that were Dems *did* invest, they did pretty well. That's why LA is nothing like VA, KY, even MS at this point, given all those states are getting somewhat of a level of investment for GOTV from Democrats, while LA didn't. That's pretty much what this boils down to.

Exactly why FL-GOV was a mess for Democrats last year. They just didn't even try.

[Skill and Chance]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

I have SD 16 and 31 toss up, SD 24 tilt R. HD 82 and 97 tilt R, HD 22 lean R, HD 65 toss up

Double digit Biden upscale suburban seats that voted left of statewide as toss ups definitely seems like an overreaction!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

I'm quite confused as to why people are making such changes, considering this isn't about "oh minority turnout is low" .... there is a reason here, and a lot of context, that does not crossover to pretty much any race.

The bottom line in LA is that Democrats did not invest. There wasn't a turnout operation; given how awful NOLA turnout was. Wilson barely had money; Landry did. RGA spent, DGA didn't. This isn't very hard to understand. 2022 showed us that were Dems *did* invest, they did pretty well. That's why LA is nothing like VA, KY, even MS at this point, given all those states are getting somewhat of a level of investment for GOTV from Democrats, while LA didn't. That's pretty much what this boils down to.

Exactly why FL-GOV was a mess for Democrats last year. They just didn't even try.

FL-GOV had an incumbent that was popular at that time, which generally leads to a gigantic outperformance. It's similar to Beshear probably outperforming Biden by 30 points. On the other hand, LA-GOV was completely open, with a popular outgoing Democratic incumbent, so such an outperformance was actually impressive.

[wbrocks67]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

I'm quite confused as to why people are making such changes, considering this isn't about "oh minority turnout is low" .... there is a reason here, and a lot of context, that does not crossover to pretty much any race.

The bottom line in LA is that Democrats did not invest. There wasn't a turnout operation; given how awful NOLA turnout was. Wilson barely had money; Landry did. RGA spent, DGA didn't. This isn't very hard to understand. 2022 showed us that were Dems *did* invest, they did pretty well. That's why LA is nothing like VA, KY, even MS at this point, given all those states are getting somewhat of a level of investment for GOTV from Democrats, while LA didn't. That's pretty much what this boils down to.

Exactly why FL-GOV was a mess for Democrats last year. They just didn't even try.

FL-GOV had an incumbent that was popular at that time, which generally leads to a gigantic outperformance. It's similar to Beshear probably outperforming Biden by 30 points. On the other hand, LA-GOV was completely open, with a popular outgoing Democratic incumbent, so such an outperformance was actually impressive.

I honestly don't think FL-GOV had much to do with DeSantis being an incumbent. Sure, probably a little but that's not my point. The overarching situation in FL, even with FL-SEN and all of their statewide races was because Dems didn't try. That's the quick of it. LA-GOV having a popular outgoing Dem incumbent really has nothing to do with anything given that he wasn't close to Wilson and didn't seem involved at all. Landry was well known as a statewide elected official and had millions behind him. It would be surprising if he didn't win given those fundamentals.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

I'm quite confused as to why people are making such changes, considering this isn't about "oh minority turnout is low" .... there is a reason here, and a lot of context, that does not crossover to pretty much any race.

The bottom line in LA is that Democrats did not invest. There wasn't a turnout operation; given how awful NOLA turnout was. Wilson barely had money; Landry did. RGA spent, DGA didn't. This isn't very hard to understand. 2022 showed us that were Dems *did* invest, they did pretty well. That's why LA is nothing like VA, KY, even MS at this point, given all those states are getting somewhat of a level of investment for GOTV from Democrats, while LA didn't. That's pretty much what this boils down to.

Exactly why FL-GOV was a mess for Democrats last year. They just didn't even try.

Charlie Crist was literally the governor of the state for 4 years, was the gubernatorial nominee in 2014, ran for Senate in 2010 and served in Congress for Six years. He had massive name recognition and should have had a floor of at least 45% without even trying!

[Senator Incitatus]

Mississippi is probably the only place you can read anything into this, but it fits with my baseline assumption that the black Democratic vote will decrease.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’s a good sign for Reeves in Mississippi, but I can’t really extrapolate anything out of Kentucky, as that state has a very tiny black population.

In Virginia I’d say it’s a bad sign for Dems in racially polarized rural seats like SD-17 and HD-82 but less meaningful in suburban seats with sizable black minorities like SD-24 and HD-97.

[wbrocks67]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

I'm quite confused as to why people are making such changes, considering this isn't about "oh minority turnout is low" .... there is a reason here, and a lot of context, that does not crossover to pretty much any race.

The bottom line in LA is that Democrats did not invest. There wasn't a turnout operation; given how awful NOLA turnout was. Wilson barely had money; Landry did. RGA spent, DGA didn't. This isn't very hard to understand. 2022 showed us that were Dems *did* invest, they did pretty well. That's why LA is nothing like VA, KY, even MS at this point, given all those states are getting somewhat of a level of investment for GOTV from Democrats, while LA didn't. That's pretty much what this boils down to.

Exactly why FL-GOV was a mess for Democrats last year. They just didn't even try.

Charlie Crist was literally the governor of the state for 4 years, was the gubernatorial nominee in 2014, ran for Senate in 2010 and served in Congress for Six years. He had massive name recognition and should have had a floor of at least 45% without even trying!

I'm not sure what name recognition does when you have no infrastructure?

[jamestroll]

LOL! This will have very little impact, if any, on Virginia. With the only exception of some south side districts. Hampton Roads is not even comparable to Louisiana, and VA democrats seem more ENGAGED than Louisiana Democrats at this point.

I do not think VA is as pro choice as made out to be but it NOT a Louisiana in being a reverse "DOBBS EFFECT".

There was low turnout in the Orleans Parish. The only thing this proves me to though is that a reverse 2016 is possible in 2024 if Democrats collapse in black rural areas in the south.

[wbrocks67]

It’s a good sign for Reeves in Mississippi, but I can’t really extrapolate anything out of Kentucky, as that state has a very tiny black population.

In Virginia I’d say it’s a bad sign for Dems in racially polarized rural seats like SD-17 and HD-82 but less meaningful in suburban seats with sizable black minorities like SD-24 and HD-97.

I feel like people are simply ignoring what's happening here. Why are we extrapolating out of this when Democrats *are* putting money and effort into VA and MS?

Democrats did not put anything into making black voters turnout in LA. That is clearly not the case in VA and MS. So why are we comparing these two?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D

VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R

Agree with all of this.  It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond.  No reason to change KY, though.

I'm quite confused as to why people are making such changes, considering this isn't about "oh minority turnout is low" .... there is a reason here, and a lot of context, that does not crossover to pretty much any race.

The bottom line in LA is that Democrats did not invest. There wasn't a turnout operation; given how awful NOLA turnout was. Wilson barely had money; Landry did. RGA spent, DGA didn't. This isn't very hard to understand. 2022 showed us that were Dems *did* invest, they did pretty well. That's why LA is nothing like VA, KY, even MS at this point, given all those states are getting somewhat of a level of investment for GOTV from Democrats, while LA didn't. That's pretty much what this boils down to.

Exactly why FL-GOV was a mess for Democrats last year. They just didn't even try.

Charlie Crist was literally the governor of the state for 4 years, was the gubernatorial nominee in 2014, ran for Senate in 2010 and served in Congress for Six years. He had massive name recognition and should have had a floor of at least 45% without even trying!

Yes but he was the wrong guy at the wrong time in 2022. "COVID freedoms" were the main selling point for Republicans at the time, and Crist as an old, white basement guy is a horrific fit for this. It's the same reason why Biden was an absolutely terrible fit for Florida in 2020 (but maybe not in 2024 where COVID is now a distant memory and where polls seem to show age depolarization).

[SnowLabrador]

Nothing good for Democrats, that's for sure.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’s a good sign for Reeves in Mississippi, but I can’t really extrapolate anything out of Kentucky, as that state has a very tiny black population.

In Virginia I’d say it’s a bad sign for Dems in racially polarized rural seats like SD-17 and HD-82 but less meaningful in suburban seats with sizable black minorities like SD-24 and HD-97.

I feel like people are simply ignoring what's happening here. Why are we extrapolating out of this when Democrats *are* putting money and effort into VA and MS?

Democrats did not put anything into making black voters turnout in LA. That is clearly not the case in VA and MS. So why are we comparing these two?

This is true. Ron DeSantis cruised to victory the same night Raphael Warnock almost won outright.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It’s a good sign for Reeves in Mississippi, but I can’t really extrapolate anything out of Kentucky, as that state has a very tiny black population.

In Virginia I’d say it’s a bad sign for Dems in racially polarized rural seats like SD-17 and HD-82 but less meaningful in suburban seats with sizable black minorities like SD-24 and HD-97.

I feel like people are simply ignoring what's happening here. Why are we extrapolating out of this when Democrats *are* putting money and effort into VA and MS?

Democrats did not put anything into making black voters turnout in LA. That is clearly not the case in VA and MS. So why are we comparing these two?

Agreed.  It is pretty clear that certain folks are tying themselves in knots desperately trying to justify their pre-existing doomer and Republican wishcasting narratives and simply ignoring any facts or analysis that doesn’t fit neatly into the narratives they’re pushing.

[President Johnson]

Nothing at all.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It’s a good sign for Reeves in Mississippi, but I can’t really extrapolate anything out of Kentucky, as that state has a very tiny black population.

In Virginia I’d say it’s a bad sign for Dems in racially polarized rural seats like SD-17 and HD-82 but less meaningful in suburban seats with sizable black minorities like SD-24 and HD-97.

I feel like people are simply ignoring what's happening here. Why are we extrapolating out of this when Democrats *are* putting money and effort into VA and MS?

Democrats did not put anything into making black voters turnout in LA. That is clearly not the case in VA and MS. So why are we comparing these two?

Agreed.  It is pretty clear that certain folks are tying themselves in knots desperately trying to justify their pre-existing doomer and Republican wishcasting narratives and simply ignoring any facts or analysis that doesn’t fit neatly into the narratives they’re pushing.

Polling (showing Trump gaining massively with black voters) and every single 2022/2023 result in the South points to the black belt collapsing for Biden in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

It’s a good sign for Reeves in Mississippi, but I can’t really extrapolate anything out of Kentucky, as that state has a very tiny black population.

In Virginia I’d say it’s a bad sign for Dems in racially polarized rural seats like SD-17 and HD-82 but less meaningful in suburban seats with sizable black minorities like SD-24 and HD-97.

I feel like people are simply ignoring what's happening here. Why are we extrapolating out of this when Democrats *are* putting money and effort into VA and MS?

Democrats did not put anything into making black voters turnout in LA. That is clearly not the case in VA and MS. So why are we comparing these two?

Agreed.  It is pretty clear that certain folks are tying themselves in knots desperately trying to justify their pre-existing doomer and Republican wishcasting narratives and simply ignoring any facts or analysis that doesn’t fit neatly into the narratives they’re pushing.

Polling (showing Trump gaining massively with black voters) and every single 2022/2023 result in the South points to the black belt collapsing for Biden in 2024.

Most of the polling showed Republicans gaining with black voters in 2022 too, and it did not happen.