How would you feel with these early results?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Georgia:
Washington: Trump +13
Brantley: Trump +88

North Carolina:
Anson: Trump +13
Washington: Trump +7

Florida:
Miami-Dade (early): Biden +11, Mucarsel-Powell +22
Pinellas: Biden +4, Mucarsel-Powell +9, Luna goes down
Orange: Biden +32, Mucarsel-Powell +37
Jacksonville: Biden +3, Scott +1

Texas:

Collin (early): Trump +5, Cruz +5
Tarrant (early): Trump +1, Cruz +2
Harris (early): Biden +10, Allred +6

Virginia:
Buchanan: Trump +75

Ohio:
Mahoning (early): Biden +14, Brown +30
Cuyahoga (early): Biden +42, Brown +50
Summit (early): Biden +40, Brown +48

Pennsylvania:
Allegheny (mail-in): Biden +60, Casey +66


Michigan:
Wayne (initial returns, no inner city Detroit): Biden +3, Slotkin +7

[pbrower2a]

Georgia:
Washington: Trump +13
Brantley: Trump +88

Not good news, except that these counties will be dwarfed by the giant urban counties.

North Carolina:
Anson: Trump +13
Washington: Trump +7

As in Georgia.

Florida:
Miami-Dade (early): Biden +11, Mucarsel-Powell +22
Pinellas: Biden +4, Mucarsel-Powell +9, Luna goes down
Orange: Biden +32, Mucarsel-Powell +37
Jacksonville: Biden +3, Scott +1

It looks good for Biden. Good chance of a win. This says nothing of western Florida, but the urban vote will decide Florida.

Texas:

Collin (early): Trump +5, Cruz +5
Tarrant (early): Trump +1, Cruz +2
Harris (early): Biden +10, Allred +6

Biden actually opened with a slight lead in Texas in 2020. If the later vote is pro-Biden, then Biden wins Texas. A Texas win for Biden practically clinches the election, but Texas comes with a Texas-sized parcel of "if's" for any Democrat running in a statewide election. The urban counties are becoming more dominant in Texas politics.

Virginia:
Buchanan: Trump +75

About as in the 2020 result. Counties like this one get dwarfed by the urban giants.

Ohio:
Mahoning (early): Biden +14, Brown +30
Cuyahoga (early): Biden +42, Brown +50
Summit (early): Biden +40, Brown +48

Ohio seems to be bouncing back as a legitimate swing state. I would expect much the same for Lucas (Toledo), Montgomery (Dayton), and Hamilton (Cincinnati). Most Ohio cities are hemorrhaging population to the increase of importance of the rural vote (Ohio is clearly Rust Belt, but it is also a big farm state). A return of usual Democratic voters to the D fold can only hurt Trump. Brown gets re-elected.

Pennsylvania:
Allegheny (mail-in): Biden +60, Casey +66

This county went by a 20% margin for Biden in 2020. I believe that Pennsylvania counts mail-in votes last, and the state was not called until Biden had a bare lead and the remaining votes were mail-in ballots were all in Philadelphia. We wouldn't see these for a while.

Michigan:
Wayne (initial returns, no inner city Detroit): Biden +3, Slotkin +7

I'd be more interested in results from Genesee, Ingham, Kent, Kalamazoo, and Macomb. Even outside of Detroit, Wayne County is rather liberal. This said, any early D lead in Michigan will be called early for Biden and Slotkin because of the huge vote from Detroit about as predictable as is possible.  

.....

Nothing is said of Arizona, Iowa, Nevada, or Wisconsin. Early votes in Arizona and Nevada (which will be decided in their dominant Maricopa [Phoenix] and Clark [Las Vegas] counties, respectively). Arizona is increasingly voting like New Mexico due to the fast-growing Mexican-American population. Bounce-backs by Democrats in Florida and Ohio would indicate big trouble for a Party that increasingly acts like a fascist party. A hint: FDR practically drafted Lincoln as the definitive anti-fascist.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Georgia:
Washington: Trump +13
Brantley: Trump +88

North Carolina:
Anson: Trump +13
Washington: Trump +7

Florida:
Miami-Dade (early): Biden +11, Mucarsel-Powell +22
Pinellas: Biden +4, Mucarsel-Powell +9, Luna goes down
Orange: Biden +32, Mucarsel-Powell +37
Jacksonville: Biden +3, Scott +1

Texas:

Collin (early): Trump +5, Cruz +5
Tarrant (early): Trump +1, Cruz +2
Harris (early): Biden +10, Allred +6

Virginia:
Buchanan: Trump +75

Ohio:
Mahoning (early): Biden +14, Brown +30
Cuyahoga (early): Biden +42, Brown +50
Summit (early): Biden +40, Brown +48

Pennsylvania:
Allegheny (mail-in): Biden +60, Casey +66


Michigan:
Wayne (initial returns, no inner city Detroit): Biden +3, Slotkin +7

Georgia good for Trump, but its difficult to say who is favored without Atlanta results.

North Carolina is also good for Trump.

Florida is also pointing towards a Trump win. Biden is on track to win Miami-Dade by high single digits, slightly outpacing his 2020 win there. He is also doing decent in other parts of the state but it won't be enough to win. Trump wins Florida by slightly smaller margin than 2020.

Texas looks decent for Trump, maybe a 2pt win or so?

Virginia is meaningless as we basically need NOVA, Richmond, and VA Beach to decide. I guess good for Biden though since he is still favored to win the state.

Ohio, Trump will still win but by less than 2020 and quite possibly less than Vance's margin in 2022.

Pennsylvania

Good for Biden probably

Michigan

Good for Trump and I would view the state as a tossup based off that

[Skill and Chance]

Georgia:  Strongly suggests a Trump win, but we still need to wait and see if Biden got like 80% in Fulton because then nothing rural would matter.  If it was Clayton County swinging double digits to Trump, it would be over.

North Carolina: Extremely good for Trump, basically over.  He should be winning by at least 5 statewide unless something crazy happened in Charlotte or RDU.

Florida: This implies Dems are going to flip the senate seat and Biden is doing weirdly well along I-4 (I'm assuming all those other counties are final totals and not just early vote like it's specifically labeled in Miami, especially because you noted a congressional swing seat was already called).  Those Orange numbers are particularly great for Biden and if that carries over to the entire Orlando area and the slightly better Miami result carries over to West Palm Beach and Broward, Biden might actually win statewide.  Maybe we get another crazy recount situation?!

Virginia: Implies a Trump improvement in VA-09, but that area is so different from the rest of the state that we can't make any broader assumptions.  Biden can lose a lot of ground from 2020 and still win.

Ohio:  Looks really good for Brown.  Good for Biden relative to 2020 and 2016, but not by enough to win.

Pennsylvania: Looks good for Biden, at least comparable to 2020, maybe comparable to Fetterman 2022?

Michigan:  Do they still report everything from election day 1st?  If so, good for Biden.  If this is in-person EV, bad but not hopeless for Biden.  If this is mail-ins, hopeless for Biden,  but in a way that doesn't fit with any of the other results anywhere, so I don't think that was your intent.



Texas: This result would be pretty great for Trump assuming it's all early vote.  Implies he's going to do considerably better than 2020 in all those urban/suburban counties.  Trump could win statewide by double digits pending the Austin area and majority-Hispanic south Texas.  note Beto led statewide for quite a while in the 2018 Texas early vote.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There is no way Biden wins MD if he's losing ground in places like Harris

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Beto led statewide for quite a while in the 2018 Texas early vote, so this result should be considerably good for Trump.  Implies he's going to do considerably better than 2020 in all those urban counties.

I'm mainly following the patterns of 2022 in early vote reporting. In 2022, Abbott led Tarrant by 3.8, and finished winning it by 4.5. Texas seems to have very little early vote bias (as well as Miami-Dade) - both should be only 1-2 points left of the actual result at most (and possibly less in 2024 if people depolarize in vote methods).

Washington and Brantley were the first finished counties in the GA runoff between Walker/Warnock, so I included them first.

On the other hand, PA and OH have gigantic early vote counting biases - I based the results off issue 1 early votes that I recalled, then shifted them towards Trump to make the margin reasonable.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There is no way Biden wins MD if he's losing ground in places like Harris

They diverged significantly in 2020, so they are not alike at all. Harris is way more religious than MD, as well as Texas having no abortion referendum.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Michigan:  Do they still report everything from election day 1st?  If so, good for Biden.  If this is in-person EV, bad but not hopeless for Biden.  If this is mail-ins, hopeless for Biden,  but in a way that doesn't fit with any of the other results anywhere, so I don't think that was your intent.

Inner city Detroit hasn't reported yet; it's just the suburbs. I don't remember 2020, but  in 2016 Clinton led only by 4 early in Wayne, then it grew to 8 then eventually to 37.

[Skill and Chance]

Beto led statewide for quite a while in the 2018 Texas early vote, so this result should be considerably good for Trump.  Implies he's going to do considerably better than 2020 in all those urban counties.

I'm mainly following the patterns of 2022 in early vote reporting. In 2022, Abbott led Tarrant by 3.8, and finished winning it by 4.5. Texas seems to have very little early vote bias (as well as Miami-Dade) - both should be only 1-2 points left of the actual result at most (and possibly less in 2024 if people depolarize in vote methods).

Washington and Brantley were the first finished counties in the GA runoff between Walker/Warnock, so I included them first.

On the other hand, PA and OH have gigantic early vote counting biases - I based the results off issue 1 early votes that I recalled, then shifted them towards Trump to make the margin reasonable.

Well, if that was your intent, this suggests Biden won Florida.  If he wins M-D by 10% and also does a few % better than 2020 in Broward and West Palm Beach, that should be sufficient with those I-4 county numbers 

Regarding Texas, Harris probably ends up Biden +8, so 5% more R than 2020, while Tarrant and Collin are like 1% more R than 2020.  Trump probably wins by 7 or 8 statewide. 

[Skill and Chance]

Michigan:  Do they still report everything from election day 1st?  If so, good for Biden.  If this is in-person EV, bad but not hopeless for Biden.  If this is mail-ins, hopeless for Biden,  but in a way that doesn't fit with any of the other results anywhere, so I don't think that was your intent.

Inner city Detroit hasn't reported yet; it's just the suburbs. I don't remember 2020, but  in 2016 Clinton led only by 4 early in Wayne, then it grew to 8 then eventually to 37.

2020 in Michigan was like Trump +9 statewide for the first several hours due to election day reporting first everywhere.  This would be narrowly good for Biden then.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Stop with the fantasy scenarios!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Beto led statewide for quite a while in the 2018 Texas early vote, so this result should be considerably good for Trump.  Implies he's going to do considerably better than 2020 in all those urban counties.

I'm mainly following the patterns of 2022 in early vote reporting. In 2022, Abbott led Tarrant by 3.8, and finished winning it by 4.5. Texas seems to have very little early vote bias (as well as Miami-Dade) - both should be only 1-2 points left of the actual result at most (and possibly less in 2024 if people depolarize in vote methods).

Washington and Brantley were the first finished counties in the GA runoff between Walker/Warnock, so I included them first.

On the other hand, PA and OH have gigantic early vote counting biases - I based the results off issue 1 early votes that I recalled, then shifted them towards Trump to make the margin reasonable.

Well, if that was your intent, this suggests Biden won Florida.  If he wins M-D by 10% and also does a few % better than 2020 in Broward and West Palm Beach, that should be sufficient with those I-4 county numbers 

Regarding Texas, Harris probably ends up Biden +8, so 5% more R than 2020, while Tarrant and Collin are like 1% more R than 2020.  Trump probably wins by 7 or 8 statewide. 

Well keep in mind that Florida does have a panhandle, which is probably exposed to the same trends as the rest of the Deep South.

[Roll Roons]

Beto led statewide for quite a while in the 2018 Texas early vote, so this result should be considerably good for Trump.  Implies he's going to do considerably better than 2020 in all those urban counties.

I'm mainly following the patterns of 2022 in early vote reporting. In 2022, Abbott led Tarrant by 3.8, and finished winning it by 4.5. Texas seems to have very little early vote bias (as well as Miami-Dade) - both should be only 1-2 points left of the actual result at most (and possibly less in 2024 if people depolarize in vote methods).

Washington and Brantley were the first finished counties in the GA runoff between Walker/Warnock, so I included them first.

On the other hand, PA and OH have gigantic early vote counting biases - I based the results off issue 1 early votes that I recalled, then shifted them towards Trump to make the margin reasonable.

Well, if that was your intent, this suggests Biden won Florida.  If he wins M-D by 10% and also does a few % better than 2020 in Broward and West Palm Beach, that should be sufficient with those I-4 county numbers 

Regarding Texas, Harris probably ends up Biden +8, so 5% more R than 2020, while Tarrant and Collin are like 1% more R than 2020.  Trump probably wins by 7 or 8 statewide. 

Well keep in mind that Florida does have a panhandle, which is probably exposed to the same trends as the rest of the Deep South.

Something possibly worth considering: despite Rubio doing 9 points better statewide in 2022 compared to 2016, there were still ten counties that swung left. Three of those were the westernmost Panhandle counties of Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa. Those three also swung and trended left in 2020 despite Florida being one of the few states to swing right.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Beto led statewide for quite a while in the 2018 Texas early vote, so this result should be considerably good for Trump.  Implies he's going to do considerably better than 2020 in all those urban counties.

I'm mainly following the patterns of 2022 in early vote reporting. In 2022, Abbott led Tarrant by 3.8, and finished winning it by 4.5. Texas seems to have very little early vote bias (as well as Miami-Dade) - both should be only 1-2 points left of the actual result at most (and possibly less in 2024 if people depolarize in vote methods).

Washington and Brantley were the first finished counties in the GA runoff between Walker/Warnock, so I included them first.

On the other hand, PA and OH have gigantic early vote counting biases - I based the results off issue 1 early votes that I recalled, then shifted them towards Trump to make the margin reasonable.

Well, if that was your intent, this suggests Biden won Florida.  If he wins M-D by 10% and also does a few % better than 2020 in Broward and West Palm Beach, that should be sufficient with those I-4 county numbers  

Regarding Texas, Harris probably ends up Biden +8, so 5% more R than 2020, while Tarrant and Collin are like 1% more R than 2020.  Trump probably wins by 7 or 8 statewide.  

Well keep in mind that Florida does have a panhandle, which is probably exposed to the same trends as the rest of the Deep South.

Something possibly worth considering: despite Rubio doing 9 points better statewide in 2022 compared to 2016, there were still ten counties that swung left. Three of those were the westernmost Panhandle counties of Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa. Those three also swung and trended left in 2020 despite Florida being one of the few states to swing right.

I think 2020 is a more accurate baseline. I also think Dobbs has changed the environment, and the Deep South will be the area that trends right the most (compared to 2020, when the trends were mostly caused by the COVID issue environment). Even regarding Rubio 2016 vs 2022, the area just east of Tallahassee swung hard right from 2016 to 2022.

[Skill and Chance]

Beto led statewide for quite a while in the 2018 Texas early vote, so this result should be considerably good for Trump.  Implies he's going to do considerably better than 2020 in all those urban counties.

I'm mainly following the patterns of 2022 in early vote reporting. In 2022, Abbott led Tarrant by 3.8, and finished winning it by 4.5. Texas seems to have very little early vote bias (as well as Miami-Dade) - both should be only 1-2 points left of the actual result at most (and possibly less in 2024 if people depolarize in vote methods).

Washington and Brantley were the first finished counties in the GA runoff between Walker/Warnock, so I included them first.

On the other hand, PA and OH have gigantic early vote counting biases - I based the results off issue 1 early votes that I recalled, then shifted them towards Trump to make the margin reasonable.

Well, if that was your intent, this suggests Biden won Florida.  If he wins M-D by 10% and also does a few % better than 2020 in Broward and West Palm Beach, that should be sufficient with those I-4 county numbers 

Regarding Texas, Harris probably ends up Biden +8, so 5% more R than 2020, while Tarrant and Collin are like 1% more R than 2020.  Trump probably wins by 7 or 8 statewide. 

Well keep in mind that Florida does have a panhandle, which is probably exposed to the same trends as the rest of the Deep South.

Something possibly worth considering: despite Rubio doing 9 points better statewide in 2022 compared to 2016, there were still ten counties that swung left. Three of those were the westernmost Panhandle counties of Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa. Those three also swung and trended left in 2020 despite Florida being one of the few states to swing right.

Makes sense because the military vote has been moving left recently.