Would John Bel Edwards have been re-elected had he been eligible?

[Tekken_Guy]

Would John Bel Edwards have won a third term had he been eligible to run again?

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think so. Just face it: The national environment is not as D-favorable as 2019's was.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think so. Just face it: The national environment is not as D-favorable as 2019's was.

I agree he would have lost, though it would have been a very close race most likely.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

No, but he would've made it a runoff.

[smoltchanov]

No, but he would've made it a runoff.

+101. I would add, that he would lose a close race, but still lose. He had rather weak opponent in 2019 and level of polarization was high, but still lower then. Now it's almost astonishing.

[Skill and Chance]

No.  Given Louisiana's election system, there is probably more potential to develop a progressive R faction over time than for Dems to get anywhere over the next generation or so.

[Spectator]

No.  Given Louisiana's election system, there is probably more potential to develop a progressive R faction over time than for Dems to get anywhere over the next generation or so.

Yeah I don’t think we’ll see a Democrat win statewide in LA, AR, OK, AL, MS, or KY after Beshear leaves again in our lives. There’s just no bench or really any significant bases to draw from. Roy Moore only lost by 1% in 2017, and I’m willing to bet he’d win a rerun of that race in this day and age.

[Alben Barkley]

No.  Given Louisiana's election system, there is probably more potential to develop a progressive R faction over time than for Dems to get anywhere over the next generation or so.

Yeah I don’t think we’ll see a Democrat win statewide in LA, AR, OK, AL, MS, or KY after Beshear leaves again in our lives. There’s just no bench or really any significant bases to draw from. Roy Moore only lost by 1% in 2017, and I’m willing to bet he’d win a rerun of that race in this day and age.

I don't know about you, but I intend to live long enough that I hope to see Democrats win statewide in one or more of these states at some point. After all, there are still people alive today born at a time when it seemed unfathomable Louisiana or Mississippi would ever vote for a Republican.

[Dave Hedgehog]

I was bullish on his hypothetical chances at a third term when I saw he had a net +18 approval rating. After seeing what happened over the weekend, I now think he would have lost and it wouldn't have been particularly close in the end. Republicans just cleaned up here; there's no other way of looking at it.

[Xing]

I actually wouldn't count it out. Democrats did not invest at all in the race this year, which obviously wouldn't have been the case if JBE had been the candidate, and a popular incumbent running really does make a whole world of difference. I'm sure that Baker would have won re-election if he had run in 2022, despite Democrats winning an open race by nearly 30 points.

[Del Tachi]

The dynamic of the race would have been completely different had JBE been eligible for a third-term.  Not only would an entirely different crop of GOP candidates been open to running, but Edwards would have governed differently knowing he could extend his shelf-life.  If Beshear can win this year, then it's absolutely the case that Edwards could have too (i.e., LA is less Republican than KY, and Republicans even won MA/MD in super D-friendly 2018.) 

[TML]

I actually wouldn't count it out. Democrats did not invest at all in the race this year, which obviously wouldn't have been the case if JBE had been the candidate, and a popular incumbent running really does make a whole world of difference. I'm sure that Baker would have won re-election if he had run in 2022, despite Democrats winning an open race by nearly 30 points.

In Baker’s case, though, polls indicate that he would probably have lost renomination had he run again.

[Samof94]

No.  Given Louisiana's election system, there is probably more potential to develop a progressive R faction over time than for Dems to get anywhere over the next generation or so.

Yeah I don’t think we’ll see a Democrat win statewide in LA, AR, OK, AL, MS, or KY after Beshear leaves again in our lives. There’s just no bench or really any significant bases to draw from. Roy Moore only lost by 1% in 2017, and I’m willing to bet he’d win a rerun of that race in this day and age.

What about Kansas?

[I’m not Stu]

Is this assuming Jeff Landry still would have been the GOP nominee?

[Zedonathin2020]

He would’ve made it to a runoff, but I think he loses in said Runoff by 5

[soundchaser]

Is this assuming Jeff Landry still would have been the GOP nominee?

Presumably -- although it's more likely that Landry doesn't run against Edwards at all in this scenario.

[I’m not Stu]

I thought Edwards would narrowly win if the GOP nominee was more obscure than Jeff Landry.

[Spectator]

No.  Given Louisiana's election system, there is probably more potential to develop a progressive R faction over time than for Dems to get anywhere over the next generation or so.

Yeah I don’t think we’ll see a Democrat win statewide in LA, AR, OK, AL, MS, or KY after Beshear leaves again in our lives. There’s just no bench or really any significant bases to draw from. Roy Moore only lost by 1% in 2017, and I’m willing to bet he’d win a rerun of that race in this day and age.

What about Kansas?

Yes, I expect Democrats to win the governorship and/or a Senate race in Kansas within the next 20 years.

[Rjjr77]

Would John Bel Edwards have won a third term had he been eligible to run again?

No way, he squeaked by a throw away in Rispone because of a lot of internal Louisiana politics, but he couldnt beat Landry.

[Vice President Christian Man]

No.  Given Louisiana's election system, there is probably more potential to develop a progressive R faction over time than for Dems to get anywhere over the next generation or so.

Yeah I don’t think we’ll see a Democrat win statewide in LA, AR, OK, AL, MS, or KY after Beshear leaves again in our lives. There’s just no bench or really any significant bases to draw from. Roy Moore only lost by 1% in 2017, and I’m willing to bet he’d win a rerun of that race in this day and age.

It's possible that Dems might have an easier time winning MS as blacks are expected to become a plurality in the next few decades at least among younger generations, although by then it's likely that enough blacks might have switched over that we would see it as similar to how Texas and Florida are viewed currently.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't think so. Just face it: The national environment is not as D-favorable as 2019's was.

This.  I like Edwards, but there were special circumstances in each election that don't apply now.