Has a Democrat ever won a NY statewide race through NYC alone?

[electionsguy259]

I've noticed that Jimmy Carter won New York state by a narrow margin in 1976 despite only winning three counties outside of NYC (Albany, Erie, and Sullivan). Likewise, in 1928, FDR won the gubernatorial race by an even narrower margin, again winning only three counties outside the City.

Does anyone know of a statewide race where the Dem candidate won despite not winning any areas outside NYC?

[DrScholl]

The closest example seems to be when Elliot Spitzer narrowly beat Attorney General Dennis Vacco in 1998 by carrying only four NYC Boroughs plus Rockland and Westchester.

[Senator Incitatus]

I've noticed that Jimmy Carter won New York state by a narrow margin in 1976 despite only winning three counties outside of NYC (Albany, Erie, and Sullivan). Likewise, in 1928, FDR won the gubernatorial race by an even narrower margin, again winning only three counties outside the City.

Does anyone know of a statewide race where the Dem candidate won despite not winning any areas outside NYC?

Herbert Lehman immediately came to mind, but he narrowly won Albany in 1949 and slightly less narrowly in 1938.

Al Smith also won Albany in 1924 but by a huge margin. He lost Albany but carried two rural counties in 1918.

[oldtimer]

Probably most of them since the 1850's.

[SWE]

It's basically impossible to imagine this happening now given that Tompkins county is bluer than NYC - if a Democrat is underperforming so badly they've lost every upstate county, they're probably not well enough to make up for it in NYC

[Del Tachi]

D primaries would be the place to look.

[Vosem]

If you mean 'won zero counties outside of NYC', then many races have come close but I can't think of any that have hit that benchmark.

If you mean 'their entire margin of victory came from NYC, the rest of the state voted for the Republican candidate', then sure, this happens all the time. I think this was true for most or all of the statewide elections in 2022. I did the math and it was just narrowly not true of 2016-POTUS (Clinton won NYC by 1,670,026 votes and the rest of the state by 66,559 votes).

I think it was true of all the 2022 races: did the math and Schumer won NYC by 850,700 votes, which means he lost the rest of the state to Pinion by 31,290 votes. He ran ahead of all the other Democrats basically everywhere, so all of them also won solely on account of NYC.

[Tekken_Guy]

If you mean 'won zero counties outside of NYC', then many races have come close but I can't think of any that have hit that benchmark.

If you mean 'their entire margin of victory came from NYC, the rest of the state voted for the Republican candidate', then sure, this happens all the time. I think this was true for most or all of the statewide elections in 2022. I did the math and it was just narrowly not true of 2016-POTUS (Clinton won NYC by 1,670,026 votes and the rest of the state by 66,559 votes).

I think it was true of all the 2022 races: did the math and Schumer won NYC by 850,700 votes, which means he lost the rest of the state to Pinion by 31,290 votes. He ran ahead of all the other Democrats basically everywhere, so all of them also won solely on account of NYC.

If you moved Staten Island to the “rest of state” column does it change anything?

[President Johnson]

It's interesting that Franklin D. Roosevelt in all of his elections won New York with a narrower margin than nationwide and just a few counties outside the city. Especially 1940 was pretty close and Willkie won almost everything in Upstate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If you mean 'won zero counties outside of NYC', then many races have come close but I can't think of any that have hit that benchmark.

If you mean 'their entire margin of victory came from NYC, the rest of the state voted for the Republican candidate', then sure, this happens all the time. I think this was true for most or all of the statewide elections in 2022. I did the math and it was just narrowly not true of 2016-POTUS (Clinton won NYC by 1,670,026 votes and the rest of the state by 66,559 votes).

I think it was true of all the 2022 races: did the math and Schumer won NYC by 850,700 votes, which means he lost the rest of the state to Pinion by 31,290 votes. He ran ahead of all the other Democrats basically everywhere, so all of them also won solely on account of NYC.

If you moved Staten Island to the “rest of state” column does it change anything?

Staten Island is <6% of the population of NYC so I doubt it will.

[TDAS04]

It's interesting that Franklin D. Roosevelt in all of his elections won New York with a narrower margin than nationwide and just a few counties outside the city. Especially 1940 was pretty close and Willkie won almost everything in Upstate.

It’s also a bit interesting that FDR lost Queens in the latter two of the four presidential elections that he won. Then Truman lost it. But Adlai Stevenson and George McGovern have been the only Queens-losing Democrats since then.

[WalterWhite]

It is mathematically impossible to win a New York statewide race with only votes from New York City. New York state has 19.84 million people, but New York City only has 8.47 million people.

[Open Source Intelligence]

It is mathematically impossible to win a New York statewide race with only votes from New York City. New York state has 19.84 million people, but New York City only has 8.47 million people.

Scenario 1: not everyone votes

Scenario 2: Candidate A - 8.47 million
Candidate B - 8.46 million
Candidate C - 2.91 million

[Tintrlvr]

It's interesting that Franklin D. Roosevelt in all of his elections won New York with a narrower margin than nationwide and just a few counties outside the city. Especially 1940 was pretty close and Willkie won almost everything in Upstate.

It’s also a bit interesting that FDR lost Queens in the latter two of the four presidential elections that he won. Then Truman lost it. But Adlai Stevenson and George McGovern have been the only Queens-losing Democrats since then.

In the 1940s, lots of Queens was still barely developed, much less urban than Staten Island is today. Not super surprising.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's interesting that Franklin D. Roosevelt in all of his elections won New York with a narrower margin than nationwide and just a few counties outside the city. Especially 1940 was pretty close and Willkie won almost everything in Upstate.

It’s also a bit interesting that FDR lost Queens in the latter two of the four presidential elections that he won. Then Truman lost it. But Adlai Stevenson and George McGovern have been the only Queens-losing Democrats since then.

In the 1940s, lots of Queens was still barely developed, much less urban than Staten Island is today. Not super surprising.

What were the demographics of Queens in the 1940s?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It is mathematically impossible to win a New York statewide race with only votes from New York City. New York state has 19.84 million people, but New York City only has 8.47 million people.

Scenario 1: not everyone votes

Scenario 2: Candidate A - 8.47 million
Candidate B - 8.46 million
Candidate C - 2.91 million

Or a candidate gets 49% in every other county and 80% in NYC should work

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_New_York_state_election

1954 NY Gubernatorial, where W. Averell Harriman won by 0.21% despite only winning 4 counties, 3 of which were in the NYC area.

[Roll Roons]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_New_York_state_election

1954 NY Gubernatorial, where W. Averell Harriman won by 0.21% despite only winning 4 counties, 3 of which were in the NYC area.

He won 5 counties - all the NYC boroughs besides Staten Island, plus Albany.

The thing is that Albany has also been very Democratic for a long time, so it's usually voted for Democrats in close statewide victories, even if Erie/Monroe/Onondaga/Tompkins haven't. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Albany County is the most Democratic County in NY State outside of NYC.  Erie County (Buffalo) has a suburban vote that has caused the county to go Republican at times, but the only Democrat running statewide that I can think of that lost Albany County was George McGovern in 1972.  And Nixon got only 54% of the vote; the fifth best McGovern county in NY State in 1972.

Whereas Buffalo had lackluster Democratic leadership (save for Joe Crangle, Erie County Democratic Leader from 1965-1988 (State Chair from 1971-1974), Albany County had the last great urban political machine with Dan O'Connell as Albany County Democratic Chair and Erastus Corning II as Mayor.  Uncle Dan died in 1977, but Mayor Corning took over running the party until his death in 1983.

The more Republican areas of NY's Capital District are in surrounding counties.  Rensaeleer County (Troy) and Schenectady County (Schenectady) are more Republican than Albany County, then and now.  Albany does not have the Republican suburbs that Buffalo has.  It's a one-party county, period.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It is mathematically impossible to win a New York statewide race with only votes from New York City. New York state has 19.84 million people, but New York City only has 8.47 million people.

Not true. And theoretically you could lose every county and win the election in a close 3-way race.

Maybe a plausible example where something like this could have happened is Perot wins ME-02, Bush wins ME-01, and Clinton wins the 2 at large electors.