MI (Detroit News/Marketing Resource Group)- Trump +7/Whitmer +6

[kwabbit]

Detroit News Article (paywalled)

Trump 42
Biden 35

Whitmer 46
Trump 40

[wbrocks67]

Biden approval -12 in NV but -27 in MI.... very real!

Only thing I gleam from this though is that Trump's % pretty much stays the same, which shows once again that his voters are pretty much locked in. The fact that Whitmer has 46% and Biden only 35% just says to me that there's lots of people who may not love Biden but will come home in the end for the Democrat against Trump.

Having a 20% "someone else" is just unrealistic.

[DaleCooper]

Biden approval -12 in NV but -27 in MI.... very real!

Only thing I gleam from this though is that Trump's % pretty much stays the same, which shows once again that his voters are pretty much locked in. The fact that Whitmer has 46% and Biden only 35% just says to me that there's lots of people who may not love Biden but will come home in the end for the Democrat against Trump.

Having a 20% "someone else" is just unrealistic.

It's actually very real to me that one in five people would refuse to pick between Trump and Biden but the question is whether or not those people will eventually pick one and vote for him in the end, or just not vote at all.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump is more likely to win Nevada by 7 points than he is to win MI by that much(let alone at all)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, PPP already polled it 48/44, they already said Twitter polls lie don't take them all literally

NOTE IF PPP OR MARIST DONT HAVE DS LOSING THEY ARE INVALID WE WENT THRU SAME SPILL WITH INSUDE ADVANTAGE ABD TRAFALGAR 22

Trump isn't up 7 anyways in MI if he is ahead it would be 3

[heatcharger]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Lol blks aren't gonna vote Trump are you serious it's a poll not result's , do you see the Whitener poll that's the true Biden number they have Biden at 39 percentage pts no he isn't he is at 47, users get so excited over a poll the Trump lead uts 1 yr away

[BigZuck08]

I highly doubt Trump is winning MI by 7, but if he is winning that much it will likely be due to a massive decline in black turnout in places like Detroit combined with Dem vote splitting from the likes of No Labels, Cornel West, and RFK Jr, which would help Trump win a plurality of suburban counties that were Trump 16/Biden 20.

[heatcharger]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Lol blks aren't gonna vote Trump are you serious it's a poll not result's , do you see the Whitener poll that's the true Biden number they have Biden at 39 percentage pts no he isn't he is at 47, users get so excited over a poll the Trump lead uts 1 yr away

Lol no blks see Biden as LAME DUCK PREZ

[DaleCooper]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

[Rand]

Biden campaign announces, with just over a year until election day and a single poll showing him with Bush ‘92 numbers in Michigan, that they are conceding the state to Donald Trump. Trump is now 255 electoral votes away from his second presidential term.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time.

Some rapper said nice things about Trump.

[DaleCooper]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time.

Some rapper said nice things about Trump.

Is that really all it is? Like I said, if there's a possibility that there's this huge collapse among black support for Democrats or at least Biden then I am interested in hearing about it. But I'm not seeing it. Admittedly, I have no connections to black America so I can't go off personal anecdotes, but I can look at election results.

In Michigan last year, if you trust the exit polls, Whitmer apparently won 94% of the black vote, and the Secretary of State won at least 90% of the black vote. So basically we're talking about there being many tens of thousands of black voters in Michigan who hate Biden, love Whitmer, love no-name down-ballot Democrats, and also love Donald Trump but they didn't fall in love with him until after 2020 and they also inexplicably refuse to vote for any Trump-endorsed candidates.

Even if I try to be as charitable as possible and agree that midterm turnout may not reflect 2024 turnout and that Trump will outperform down-ballot Republicans, it still seems statistically impossible (to use an obnoxious term) that none of these black Trump supporters are voting Republican in any elections. Where is this coming from?

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time.

Some rapper said nice things about Trump.

Is that really all it is? Like I said, if there's a possibility that there's this huge collapse among black support for Democrats or at least Biden then I am interested in hearing about it. But I'm not seeing it. Admittedly, I have no connections to black America so I can't go off personal anecdotes, but I can look at election results.

In Michigan last year, if you trust the exit polls, Whitmer apparently won 94% of the black vote, and the Secretary of State won at least 90% of the black vote. So basically we're talking about there being many tens of thousands of black voters in Michigan who hate Biden, love Whitmer, love no-name down-ballot Democrats, and also love Donald Trump but they didn't fall in love with him until after 2020 and they also inexplicably refuse to vote for any Trump-endorsed candidates.

Even if I try to be as charitable as possible and agree that midterm turnout may not reflect 2024 turnout and that Trump will outperform down-ballot Republicans, it still seems statistically impossible (to use an obnoxious term) that none of these black Trump supporters are voting Republican in any elections. Where is this coming from?

I was being sarcastic, but some unknown rapper saying they like Trump because of the COVID checks and getting black people out of prison was unironically cited by heatcharger as evidence.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

There does seem to be a shift in the rural black belt - even Walker outperformed Trump there out of all candidates, and there was also a huge shift right in eastern North Carolina. The same phenomenon was seen in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

In any case, midterm trends are usually muted compared to President - most of the time the midterm results is just a uniform shift from the last Presidential result based on candidate quality. For example, Starr went from Clinton +60 to O'Rourke +54 to Biden +5.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time.

Some rapper said nice things about Trump.

Is that really all it is? Like I said, if there's a possibility that there's this huge collapse among black support for Democrats or at least Biden then I am interested in hearing about it. But I'm not seeing it. Admittedly, I have no connections to black America so I can't go off personal anecdotes, but I can look at election results.

In Michigan last year, if you trust the exit polls, Whitmer apparently won 94% of the black vote, and the Secretary of State won at least 90% of the black vote. So basically we're talking about there being many tens of thousands of black voters in Michigan who hate Biden, love Whitmer, love no-name down-ballot Democrats, and also love Donald Trump but they didn't fall in love with him until after 2020 and they also inexplicably refuse to vote for any Trump-endorsed candidates.

Even if I try to be as charitable as possible and agree that midterm turnout may not reflect 2024 turnout and that Trump will outperform down-ballot Republicans, it still seems statistically impossible (to use an obnoxious term) that none of these black Trump supporters are voting Republican in any elections. Where is this coming from?

Also the claim that Trump's arrests and mug shot will make blacks more sympathetic to him.

[DaleCooper]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

There does seem to be a shift in the rural black belt - even Walker outperformed Trump there out of all candidates, and there was also a huge shift right in eastern North Carolina. The same phenomenon was seen in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

In any case, midterm trends are usually muted compared to President - most of the time the midterm results is just a uniform shift from the last Presidential result based on candidate quality. For example, Starr went from Clinton +60 to O'Rourke +54 to Biden +5.

Even in Georgia, both Warnock and Abrams apparently got 90% of the black vote. As for Texas, those numbers look exciting, but in context I actually think that O'Rourke only getting +54 in Starr when doing dramatically better than Clinton statewide is a pretty good sign in hindsight that Democrats were having issues with RGV hispanic voters. None of that seems comparable to a potential Miami-Dade style shift in Michigan black voters after they were Whitmer +90 in 2022 when Biden was supposedly the most unpopular incumbent ever.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

There does seem to be a shift in the rural black belt - even Walker outperformed Trump there out of all candidates, and there was also a huge shift right in eastern North Carolina. The same phenomenon was seen in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

In any case, midterm trends are usually muted compared to President - most of the time the midterm results is just a uniform shift from the last Presidential result based on candidate quality. For example, Starr went from Clinton +60 to O'Rourke +54 to Biden +5.

Even in Georgia, both Warnock and Abrams apparently got 90% of the black vote. As for Texas, those numbers look exciting, but in context I actually think that O'Rourke only getting +54 in Starr when doing dramatically better than Clinton statewide is a pretty good sign in hindsight that Democrats were having issues with RGV hispanic voters. None of that seems comparable to a potential Miami-Dade style shift in Michigan black voters after they were Whitmer +90 in 2022 when Biden was supposedly the most unpopular incumbent ever.

To be clear: I don't think there will be a significant shift among urban black voters. I think Trump will go from 5% to 6-7% in Detroit and Atlanta. The rural black belt in the South is a different story.

[pbrower2a]

Under 45 does not count in my state polling thread.

Trump is campaigning, and Biden isn't. 45 is close to Trump's ceiling in Michigan, and that is far from enough for him to win Michigan.

[heatcharger]

Under 45 does not count in my state polling thread.

Trump is campaigning, and Biden isn't. 45 is close to Trump's ceiling in Michigan, and that is far from enough for him to win Michigan.

Forget RCP and 538. What does the PBOWER polling map say about the state of the race?

[President Johnson]

Under 45 does not count in my state polling thread.

Trump is campaigning, and Biden isn't. 45 is close to Trump's ceiling in Michigan, and that is far from enough for him to win Michigan.

Yeah, neither Trump nor Biden will get less than 45-46% of the vote in Michigan and Pennsylvania under any circumstances.

It seems like with the exception of 2018, polls every cycle since at least 2016 totally suck.

[TodayJunior]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

Maybe Biden is really that weak. Whitmer's numbers are believable.

[President Johnson]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

Maybe Biden is really that weak. Whitmer's numbers are believable.

It's not just polls with Biden, the same picture in the senate. The Pennsylvania poll has Casey up 41-33%, which is literally worthless.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

Maybe Biden is really that weak. Whitmer's numbers are believable.

It's not just polls with Biden, the same picture in the senate. The Pennsylvania poll has Casey up 41-33%, which is literally worthless.

Fetterman just won by 5. Casey winning by 8 is believable with incumbency advantage + Presidential turnout.