How would Warren 2016 have done?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In 2014 and 2015, there was a movement to draft Elizabeth Warren to run for president as a progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton. This fizzled out after she refused to run, and the people behind said draft movement jumped on to the Sanders campaign. Assuming she runs in 2016 instead of Bernie Sanders, how does she perform?

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think she would've done slightly better than Clinton, at least flipping Michigan, although I don't think she would've gained enough of the Obama-Trump voters to win the EV.

[Agonized-Statism]

It's hard to say. The reason she didn't even win her home state in the primaries and would have done badly as nominee in 2020 is primarily because she was trying to run on a middle ground between liberals and progressives that didn't really exist (also "dId YoU cAlL mE a LiAr On NaTiOnAl Tv" being an embarrassment rather than an "I'm speaking" or "because you'd be in jail" moment like she clearly hoped it would). But if Sanders doesn't run in 2016 and she does, she's the progressive standard bearer and that's that.

That said, it would come down to the less easily quantifiable and more subjective matter of messaging. Sanders would have been able to defuse Trump's appeal to the white working class Rust Belters with his old, gruff, angry anti-establishment persona. He gives the impression that he's not trying to play a character to win votes, which I personally don't buy into but it's nevertheless there for most people, and that's important in counteracting Trumpian populism. Warren would botch the messaging, whether you attribute that more to the voters' sexism or her own incompetence. Here's her attempt at folksiness if anyone forgot:

She's not winning the nomination. If she does:


Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) ✓
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / HUD Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX)

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

She would have done worse in the primary and the general should she somehow get it.

Waren managed to come in third place in her home state, and did not win a county.

She also manages to underperform in Massachusetts in general elections.  She did over 5 points worse in 2018 than Biden in 2020. She also underperformed each Contested Congress person both times she has ran.

She is the only Democrat in to lose a county to a Republican in a regularly scheduled federal election since John Kerry lost some to Bill Weld (the incumbent governor at the time) in 1996.

Her underperformances would matter if she was in an actually close state. 

[Zedonathin2020]

Does better in Minnesota and New Hampshire, but she still loses, wouldn’t be surprised of Nevada goes to Trump

[Pres Mike]

If its Hillary vs Warren in the primary, Warren loses. Worst than Bernie. The small increase in wine moms doesn't make up for the lost of white working class dudes Bernie got. Hillary has a solid lock on minorities age 40+, the biggest part of the Democratic electorate.

If she did win the nomination, she probably loses to Trump. She has the weaknesses of Hillary without the strenghts. She is a woman and can come across as a nagging teacher. Doesn't have the same connections to black and hispanic communities and no WWC appeal in the midwest. She probably loses Nevada but does better in MN and NH.

(Important to note that at certain points in the 2020 primary, I supported Warren. Her position in 2020 was far stronger than if she ran in 2016. In fact, had Bernie not run in 2020 she very well could have won the nomination if she consiladated the progressive vote.)

[Mister Mets]

If Warren didn't overperform Sanders in 2020, I don't think she would have done the same in 2020.

She was still too much of a wine track candidate.