Predict KY-GOV

[ꙮ]

Beshear+2

Reeves+5

[Mr.Phips]

Sticking with Beshear + 2.

[brucejoel99]

Beshear: 52.7%
Cameron: 47.3%

[Miked0920]

Id say Beshear from 0.5-5% Low to mid single digit margin. Beshear is personally very popular but he is running in Kentucky which is a Heavily and Increasingly Republican State. Id say the race Leans Dem.

[EastwoodS]

52-48 Beshear

[TDAS04]

Beshear+4.

[EastwoodS]

51-49 Beshear. That is my final prediction.

[wbrocks67]

Beshear +3/4 feels right. Don't feel like it will be as close as 2019 but also not as big of an outright win as we'd want. (though any win in KY is fine with me lol)

I really don't see any actual evidence of Cameron momentum. He hasn't really ramped up spending, he's getting swamped there. His ads, if anything, have gotten worse as time goes on, and Republicans have only put a very, very mild dent in Beshear's approval.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Beshear +2.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Beshear +1.5 - 2.5.

[Talleyrand]

Cameron + 1
Reeves + 7

[MT Treasurer]

Beshear +3/4 feels right. Don't feel like it will be as close as 2019 but also not as big of an outright win as we'd want. (though any win in KY is fine with me lol)

I really don't see any actual evidence of Cameron momentum. He hasn't really ramped up spending, he's getting swamped there. His ads, if anything, have gotten worse as time goes on, and Republicans have only put a very, very mild dent in Beshear's approval.

I don’t think there’s ever been an ad from a Republican candidate for any office anywhere that you considered "good."

[Roll Roons]

Beshear +3/4 feels right. Don't feel like it will be as close as 2019 but also not as big of an outright win as we'd want. (though any win in KY is fine with me lol)

I really don't see any actual evidence of Cameron momentum. He hasn't really ramped up spending, he's getting swamped there. His ads, if anything, have gotten worse as time goes on, and Republicans have only put a very, very mild dent in Beshear's approval.

I don’t think there’s ever been an ad from a Republican candidate for any office anywhere that you considered "good."

FTFY.

[wbrocks67]

Beshear +3/4 feels right. Don't feel like it will be as close as 2019 but also not as big of an outright win as we'd want. (though any win in KY is fine with me lol)

I really don't see any actual evidence of Cameron momentum. He hasn't really ramped up spending, he's getting swamped there. His ads, if anything, have gotten worse as time goes on, and Republicans have only put a very, very mild dent in Beshear's approval.

I don’t think there’s ever been an ad from a Republican candidate for any office anywhere that you considered "good."

FTFY.

Maybe Republicans should offer better candidates then

[Roll Roons]

Beshear +3/4 feels right. Don't feel like it will be as close as 2019 but also not as big of an outright win as we'd want. (though any win in KY is fine with me lol)

I really don't see any actual evidence of Cameron momentum. He hasn't really ramped up spending, he's getting swamped there. His ads, if anything, have gotten worse as time goes on, and Republicans have only put a very, very mild dent in Beshear's approval.

I don’t think there’s ever been an ad from a Republican candidate for any office anywhere that you considered "good."

FTFY.

Maybe Republicans should offer better candidates then

Glenn Youngkin, Brian Fitzpatrick and Jack Ciattarelli are bad candidates?

[Old Man Willow]

Cameron +0.5

[Duke of York]

Cameron +1

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Beshear +2-3

[Birdish]

Beshear +3

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beshear+5.

Out of caution I am going to move my prediction to Beshear÷3.

I did this with the Louisiana 2019 race too though, only for my original prediction to be dead-on. I'm kind of getting the same vibe here, but am still confident Beshear wins no matter what.

[Mr. Matt]

Beshear+5.

Out of caution I am going to move my prediction to Beshear÷3.

Moving to new forms of political arithmetic!

[windjammer]

Cameron +1

[Tekken_Guy]

Cameron +1

You don’t suddenly believe Cameron is going to win because of one poll, right?

[MT Treasurer]

Cameron +1

You don’t suddenly believe Cameron is going to win because of one poll, right?

Not to sound rude, but what exactly is the point of you responding to everybody who thinks Cameron has momentum/will win narrowly? Just accept that people may have different views on a particular race.

I don’t think you’re changing anybody's mind with this either. Just because you feel strongly that Beshear will win doesn’t mean people aren’t entitled to their own predictions.

[Tekken_Guy]

Cameron +1

You don’t suddenly believe Cameron is going to win because of one poll, right?

Not to sound rude, but what exactly is the point of you responding to everybody who thinks Cameron has momentum/will win narrowly? Just accept that people may have different views on a particular race.

I don’t think you’re changing anybody's mind with this either. Just because you feel strongly that Beshear will win doesn’t mean people aren’t entitled to their own predictions.

I feel that people are giving too much weight to a single poll, and I trust internals (adjusted for partisanship) more than Emerson, who were famously inaccurate in 2022.