Predict KY-GOV

[Ragnaroni]

Beshear only won because of anti Trump backlash and by a tiny margin. Anti Biden backlash will happen.

Just like how anti-Biden backlash killed Laura Kelly in 2022, right? And how a Trump midterm was fatal to the likes of Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan?

Laura Kelly tied herself to trump, she went out of her way to appeal to trumpists, she did the thing. Beshear will lose by a small margin.

[EastwoodS]

I think I'm going down to Beshear +5. Would like to see a couple more final polls

[Respect and Compassion]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

[EastwoodS]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

the averages of all the polls on this race is an average of about Beshear +6.75%. The doesn't seem too unreasonable.

[Respect and Compassion]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

the averages of all the polls on this race is an average of about Beshear +6.75%. The doesn't seem too unreasonable.

in a state like Kentucky I'd expect the Republican to outperform the polling average, though in this case I don't expect it to be by much given Beshear's spending advantage and crossover appeal

[2016]

I am not predicting this Race, however I say this:

If Cameron comes within 5 Points it will be considered a good Night for him and he may still have a future in Politics.

If on the other hand Beshear wins by high single to low double digits Camerons Political Career is finished.

How much is the Republican Brand damaged because of the 3-Week Speaker Fight? We don't know but it could be considerable.

Recent CNN Poll showed Republicans took a hit during this fight.

[Pielover]

Beshear only won because of anti Trump backlash and by a tiny margin. Anti Biden backlash will happen.

Just like how anti-Biden backlash killed Laura Kelly in 2022, right? And how a Trump midterm was fatal to the likes of Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan?

Laura Kelly tied herself to trump, she went out of her way to appeal to trumpists, she did the thing. Beshear will lose by a small margin.

How exactly did Laura Kelly tie herself to Trump? I’m from Kansas and followed her campaign (both times) and I don’t recall her ever really acknowledging Trump.

[heatcharger]

I’d be shocked if Cameron won.

[MT Treasurer]

KY: Beshear
MS: Pressley, runoff or not
VA-Leg: not familiar enough but above-average performance for the GOP

Have adjusted my model after missing NV-SEN last cycle, let’s see if it works..

[Frodo]

KY Gov: Gov. Andrew Beshear wins re-election
MS Gov: Brandon Presley elected in an upset
VA Legis: Democrats win narrow majorities in both chambers

[Galeel]

Beshear +3. He's in a solid position right now IMO, but partisanship will end up keeping his margin towards the lower end. Still a great result for a dem in Kentucky.

[SnowLabrador]

KY: Beshear
MS: Pressley, runoff or not
VA-Leg: not familiar enough but above-average performance for the GOP

Have adjusted my model after missing NV-SEN last cycle, let’s see if it works..

Presley has not led in a single poll. Partisanship will kick in.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Reeves is more likely to be re-elected by double digits than Presley winning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beshear by 5-7.
Reeves by 1-3.
Democrats take both VA chambers.

[MT Treasurer]

Reeves is more likely to be re-elected by double digits than Presley winning.

Well, you can’t say that there hasn’t been a *bold* range of views on this particular race. We’ve had everything from a Pressley win to a Reeves +15-20 win.

Reputations at stake, guys..

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Reeves is more likely to be re-elected by double digits than Presley winning.

Well, you can’t say that there hasn’t been a *bold* range of views on this particular race. We’ve had everything from a Pressley win to a Reeves +15-20 win.

Reputations at stake, guys..

I mean if I had any evidence pointing to a Pressley win..

Reeves has consistently led in polling and its a stubbornly inelastic red state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess if we're putting our Mississippi predictions in here too, mine would be: Reeves+5.

[windjammer]

Beshear by 2.


It's not helping how crappy the polls are in Kentucky. In 2015 they significantly underestimated the reps.

Honestly Beshear would have to win or lose by more than  5 points to have any kind of impact on the next pres election.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Beshear by 6
Reeves by 8
Virginia Senate: 22-18 D
Virginia House: 52-48 D

[Mr. Smith]

The new question is, can Beshear hold Elliott County again? Or at least will it remain left of state, or flip in all ways just like when Amy McGrift and Charles Booker ran for Senate?

[Schiff for Senate]

Beshear wins but by less than the polls indicate and what most people think. Voted Beshear by 1-3 points, though I wouldn't be surprised if the final result was in the 3-5 range.

[Schiff for Senate]

Beshear 51
Cameron 48

I'm moving my prediction to this as well.  This feels like a classical "fake double digit Dem lead in an Appalachian state" scenario, but I still think Beshear is favored.

Agreed.

[BigZuck08]

I say Beshear 5-7, though it wouldn't surprise me if the actual results were a bit lower.

[Ferguson97]

I'll be bold

Beshear 53
Cameron 46

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Beshear+4
Reeves+8