Predict KY-GOV

[BigSkyBob]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

A governor with Beshear's approval numbers should really be waltzing to victory. I think if this was a popular R incumbent in a strong blue state, they'd probably be cruising to a double-digit win like Phil Scott last year. It's just very noticeable how popular R governors in blue states still seem to crush it in reelection bids while popular D governors in red states only tend to squeak through by a whisker. Opinion polling has consistently shown that people in the state approve of Beshear's job performance, but he might well be about to get thrown out anyway because he has the wrong letter in front of his name. All the indications I see suggest Cameron has run an uninspiring campaign and has no real platform/vision; just shout Joe Biden's name a lot and hope that gets people angry and charged up to pull the R lever en masse.

Former-slave-state-elects-first-Black-governor isn't "inspiring?" I find it highly hypocritical to denounce voters for voting policy preferences when Bashear, himself, tried to make this election a referendum on abortion.  Let me be clear, Bashear has a D in front of his name, and, Cameron has an R. Those are their chosen letters for better or for worse. The voters are entitled to make of those facts what they will.

All my life I have witnessed White liberals insinuate that Black Republicans don't have political talent simply because they are conservative [somewhat in Cameron's case] when I don't see those same liberals make the same automatic accusation against White Republicans. That's a form of racism, really.

[SnowLabrador]

If I could remove my vote, I would switch to Cameron +5.

You can

Thanks. I have now done so.

[Tekken_Guy]

If I could remove my vote, I would switch to Cameron +5.

You can

Thanks. I have now done so.

What was your old vote?

[SnowLabrador]

If I could remove my vote, I would switch to Cameron +5.

You can

Thanks. I have now done so.

What was your old vote?

Beshear +1-3.

[Tekken_Guy]

If I could remove my vote, I would switch to Cameron +5.

You can

Thanks. I have now done so.

What was your old vote?

Beshear +1-3.

How have your predictions changed with time?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Retracting my earlier Prediction. I'm going with a very slight Beshear win.



Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 948,681 votes, 51.43%
Daniel Cameron (R) - 895,919 votes, 48.57%

County flips (from 2019)
Bourbon - GOP --> DEM
Magoffin - DEM --> GOP
Breathitt - DEM --> GOP
Knott - DEM --> GOP


The Memerson poll could be an outlier. Cameron was very partisan and polarizing during his time as AG. The national environment may help him though. I think he flips back some of coal country in Eastern KY, but Beshear romps in suburbia, Louisville and Lexington cracking >65%.

Any ground lost by Beshear will be made up through turnout from those areas. Cameron is helped by there being no third party (Libertarian) on the ballot. I'm not confident on this one though, the data shows anywhere from a Cameron win by at most 2-3 (50-48) to Beshear winning by 4-5 (52-47). I'm going to settle on a Beshear +2 win for now.
 
It's hard to see a popular incumbent Governor going down despite the state's partisan lean.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Changing prediction .

Cameron +1.

[Tekken_Guy]

Changing prediction .

Cameron +1.

What changed your prediction?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

A governor with Beshear's approval numbers should really be waltzing to victory. I think if this was a popular R incumbent in a strong blue state, they'd probably be cruising to a double-digit win like Phil Scott last year. It's just very noticeable how popular R governors in blue states still seem to crush it in reelection bids while popular D governors in red states only tend to squeak through by a whisker. Opinion polling has consistently shown that people in the state approve of Beshear's job performance, but he might well be about to get thrown out anyway because he has the wrong letter in front of his name. All the indications I see suggest Cameron has run an uninspiring campaign and has no real platform/vision; just shout Joe Biden's name a lot and hope that gets people angry and charged up to pull the R lever en masse.

Phil Scott was basically a liberal, and Charlie Baker was a centrist with a slight Dem tilt. Beshear is not a DINO, or centrist, he is pretty obviously a liberal Democrat that you could see speak at the DNC. A better comparison for someone like Beshear would be Hogan who was a moderate R in a safe state.

[Tekken_Guy]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

A governor with Beshear's approval numbers should really be waltzing to victory. I think if this was a popular R incumbent in a strong blue state, they'd probably be cruising to a double-digit win like Phil Scott last year. It's just very noticeable how popular R governors in blue states still seem to crush it in reelection bids while popular D governors in red states only tend to squeak through by a whisker. Opinion polling has consistently shown that people in the state approve of Beshear's job performance, but he might well be about to get thrown out anyway because he has the wrong letter in front of his name. All the indications I see suggest Cameron has run an uninspiring campaign and has no real platform/vision; just shout Joe Biden's name a lot and hope that gets people angry and charged up to pull the R lever en masse.

Phil Scott was basically a liberal, and Charlie Baker was a centrist with a slight Dem tilt. Beshear is not a DINO, or centrist, he is pretty obviously a liberal Democrat that you could see speak at the DNC. A better comparison for someone like Beshear would be Hogan who was a moderate R in a safe state.

And Hogan ended up winning re-election, so that portends well for Beshear.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

A governor with Beshear's approval numbers should really be waltzing to victory. I think if this was a popular R incumbent in a strong blue state, they'd probably be cruising to a double-digit win like Phil Scott last year. It's just very noticeable how popular R governors in blue states still seem to crush it in reelection bids while popular D governors in red states only tend to squeak through by a whisker. Opinion polling has consistently shown that people in the state approve of Beshear's job performance, but he might well be about to get thrown out anyway because he has the wrong letter in front of his name. All the indications I see suggest Cameron has run an uninspiring campaign and has no real platform/vision; just shout Joe Biden's name a lot and hope that gets people angry and charged up to pull the R lever en masse.

Phil Scott was basically a liberal, and Charlie Baker was a centrist with a slight Dem tilt. Beshear is not a DINO, or centrist, he is pretty obviously a liberal Democrat that you could see speak at the DNC. A better comparison for someone like Beshear would be Hogan who was a moderate R in a safe state.

And Hogan ended up winning re-election, so that portends well for Beshear.

I agree which is why I have Beshear as the slight favorite. Although I think the difference is that in 2018 Dems pretty much triaged the race, whereas Rs found a good candidate and Cameron has nationalized the race.

[heatcharger]

I’d be shocked if Cameron won.

I’ll be mildly surprised if Cameron won.

[Respect and Compassion]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

Hm, is my Beshear+4 tentative prediction going to turn out to be more prescient than I realized?

I haven't updated it despite the last few polls, though the rosier-for-Cameron polls made me wonder if I should bump it down to Beshear+2.5 or something

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beshear+5.

Out of caution I am going to move my prediction to Beshear÷3.

I did this with the Louisiana 2019 race too though, only for my original prediction to be dead-on. I'm kind of getting the same vibe here, but am still confident Beshear wins no matter what.

I'm sticking with my gut feeling from now on.