Predict KY-GOV

[MT Treasurer]

I feel that people are giving too much weight to a single poll, and I trust internals (adjusted for partisanship) more than Emerson, who were famously inaccurate in 2022.

Except most people aren’t basing this on a single poll. Rather, this single poll is a data point supporting a general trend which many were picking up on even before said poll was released.

If you trust internals more than Emerson, that’s totally fine, but that doesn’t mean everybody will.

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel that people are giving too much weight to a single poll, and I trust internals (adjusted for partisanship) more than Emerson, who were famously inaccurate in 2022.

Except most people aren’t basing this on a single poll. Rather, this single poll is a data point supporting a general trend which many were picking up on even before said poll was released.

If you trust internals more than Emerson, that’s totally fine, but that doesn’t mean everybody will.

I haven’t seen any real evidence of a pro-Cameron trend in the race.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beshear+8

[Duke of York]

Beshear+8

Hope this comes to pass.

[MT Treasurer]

I feel that people are giving too much weight to a single poll, and I trust internals (adjusted for partisanship) more than Emerson, who were famously inaccurate in 2022.

Except most people aren’t basing this on a single poll. Rather, this single poll is a data point supporting a general trend which many were picking up on even before said poll was released.

If you trust internals more than Emerson, that’s totally fine, but that doesn’t mean everybody will.

I haven’t seen any real evidence of a pro-Cameron trend in the race.

If "feelings" were quantifiable by "hard data" / "real evidence," they would no longer be "feelings." No one was using the word "facts."

[Xing]

Revisiting this and saying Beshear +2 (which was my original prediction.) I wouldn’t be surprised by a narrow win for Cameron, but a “2015 redux” certainly would surprise me.

[windjammer]

Cameron +1

You don’t suddenly believe Cameron is going to win because of one poll, right?

It's just fundamentally I have been following us politics for a long time and I know how flawed the polls in Kentucky Can be.

I have Always been suspicious that this race was going to tighten up. While I do take into account Emerson, this is more what the dem operatives are saying that is changing my mind (that this race is Indeed closing).


I Hope I'm wrong

[Tekken_Guy]

Cameron +1

You don’t suddenly believe Cameron is going to win because of one poll, right?

It's just fundamentally I have been following us politics for a long time and I know how flawed the polls in Kentucky Can be.

I have Always been suspicious that this race was going to tighten up. While I do take into account Emerson, this is more what the dem operatives are saying that is changing my mind (that this race is Indeed closing).


I Hope I'm wrong

What exactly have you been hearing?

[windjammer]

Cameron +1

You don’t suddenly believe Cameron is going to win because of one poll, right?

It's just fundamentally I have been following us politics for a long time and I know how flawed the polls in Kentucky Can be.

I have Always been suspicious that this race was going to tighten up. While I do take into account Emerson, this is more what the dem operatives are saying that is changing my mind (that this race is Indeed closing).


I Hope I'm wrong

What exactly have you been hearing?

That the dem operatives are seeing as well the race closing even if that Beshear is still leading him at this moment

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I guess it's gonna be:

53% Beshear
47% Cameron

From what I know, there are no other candidates on the ballot?

52-48 Beshear now.

[Splash]

Beshear +3

[Tekken_Guy]

Cameron +1

Can you explain?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Cameron by a small margin.

This race is becoming nationalized, and this diminishes Beshear's advantages.

[politicallefty]

I'll revise my initial prediction to Beshear+4.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I still want to stick with Beshear+3, but I might revisit this on Tuesday morning.

[EastwoodS]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 925,622, 51.25%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,671, 48.24%
(Write-in) - 90, <1%

Total vote estimate: 1,805,896 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.

Talented wow

[Duke of York]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doensn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

[BigSkyBob]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

[SnowLabrador]

If I could remove my vote, I would switch to Cameron +5.

[oldtimer]

I think Beshear wins, but think of it this way, if Cameron wins McConnell is retired by his staff the next day.

It's kind of a victory for everyone.

[Duke of York]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

[jvmh2009]

If I could remove my vote, I would switch to Cameron +5.

You can

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map  would be a Beshear win 49-48.

I don't see how Cameron can win if he lost Elliott county.

[BigSkyBob]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

A governor with Beshear's approval numbers should really be waltzing to victory. I think if this was a popular R incumbent in a strong blue state, they'd probably be cruising to a double-digit win like Phil Scott last year. It's just very noticeable how popular R governors in blue states still seem to crush it in reelection bids while popular D governors in red states only tend to squeak through by a whisker. Opinion polling has consistently shown that people in the state approve of Beshear's job performance, but he might well be about to get thrown out anyway because he has the wrong letter in front of his name. All the indications I see suggest Cameron has run an uninspiring campaign and has no real platform/vision; just shout Joe Biden's name a lot and hope that gets people angry and charged up to pull the R lever en masse.