what do you expect American involvement in Iraq to look like in 18 months?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, here's a question: What do you expect American involvement in Iraq to look like 18 months from now (late October 2008, on the eve of the 2008 election)?  Not what you want it to be, but what you expect it to be.  Will there still be 100,000+ American troops there?

Because I've seen a lot of predictions about how the Iraq War is going to kill the GOP in 2008, and I can't shake the feeling that a lot of people may be underestimating the probability that there's going to be a significant change in policy between now and then.  Not a complete withdrawal, but some sort of scaling down of the mission to training Iraqi forces and special forces / air support of Iraqi combat forces in fighting al Qaeda in Iraq.....which would require far fewer troops than are there now.

When even Mitch McConnell is saying that the surge is a "last chance" that has to produce results by the fall, I have to wonder if Bush isn't about to be backed into a corner, in which all Democrats and even many Republicans will threaten to pull the plug on funding completely if Bush doesn't scale back the mission and withdraw most of the troops.  But it's difficult to gauge how likely this scenario is, which is why I started this thread to see what other people think.

[The Duke]

Option A
The surge works, people see it is working, the civil war is effectivbely ended, the Awakening Council supplants Al Qaeda as the dominant power in Anbar, the militias are being disarmed, and the central government is stabilized.

Option B
In desparation, the US pulls the plug on the democracy experiment, removes Maliki, and installs a tmeporary leader drawn from the Iraqi National Army brass.  By decree, he passes an oil revenue sharing law and a de-de-Ba'athification law.  These decrees quell the Sunni insurgency, and the absence of the threat that Shi'ite religious parties will dominate the government and seek revenge on Sunnis quells it further.  This general should be a Shi'ite, and this manuever will parrallel what we did in Afghanistan.  In Afghanistan, we found a Pusthun who had fought the Taliban (The Taliban's base of support was among Pushtuns).  He was Pushtun enough to have the support of Pushtuns but anti-Taliban enough to have the support of the non-Pushtuns.  If we find an anti-Badr Shi'ite, both the Shi'ites and Sunnis can be soewhat satisfied.  This will be our "political settlement", violence will fall, and we can announce troop reductions starting in 2009.

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For the record, I think Option B is the actual backup plan to the surge.  I am not sure yet if we will need it.

[David S]

If I had a crystal ball I'd just pick the right lottery numbers and spend the rest of my time on my yacht. Lacking a crystal ball I have to say my predictions come with no guarantee. But for what its worth I'd guess that in 2008 things in Iraq will look much the same as today.

[Wakie]

Exactly the same as today.

[Serenity Now]

An attempt at "Peace with honor"..

[nlm]

Barring Bush waking up or the democrats doing something as foolish as pulling the plug completely - thing will look very similar as they do today. The result of that will be the election of a President that will pull the plug.

[Mr. Morden]

So no one thinks that a handful of congressional Republicans will team up with congressional Dems to threaten to pull the plug, and force Bush to scale back the mission and withdraw a significant number of the troops?

[nlm]

So no one thinks that a handful of congressional Republicans will team up with congressional Dems to threaten to pull the plug, and force Bush to scale back the mission and withdraw a significant number of the troops?

It could happen - but what would be the result of that? It's not the scale of the mission that is the problem - the goal of the mission is the problem. If they scale this back without changing the goal - the region is screwed.

[Mr. Morden]

Whatever the stated goals of the mission are, if, say, the US was to scale back its role to training Iraqi forces and providing air support for Iraqi forces against al Qaeda in Iraq, one would think that could have pretty significant consequences (either good or bad, depending on your point of view), both for Iraq and for the American political situation.  Perhaps, for example, you think that under such a scenario, the present Iraqi government would be overthrown, as there wouldn't be American troops around to prop it up?  I don't know.  That's just an example.  There are a lot of different ways it could go.

I'm just curious as to what people think are the most likely scenarios.  Because it seems like people are constantly presupposing that American policy isn't going to change much until the next president is sworn in, and I'm wondering how firmly people have really thought through the issue.  Are they just assuming that nothing will change because that's the simplest scenario?

[nlm]

Let's just say say I hope we change course in the next 18 months to something that isn't a pipe dream.

If we don't - what do you think the chances are that the plug will be pulled on the whole thing?