Israel-Gaza war

[CumbrianLefty]

Israeli military analyst: The legitimization window is closing quickly the longer Israel waits (CNN, Youtube)

Reminds me a bit of the July Crisis of 1914. Had Austria-Hungary acted immediately by invading Serbia right after the Sarajevo assassination, they might have gotten away with it without a world war. Russia had already thrown the Serbian cause under the bus once in 1908 when they had recognised Bosnia's annexation into Austria-Hungary. But in 1914 Vienna waited a month before taking action, and by that point Russia had decided to stand with Serbia, and France had decided to stand with Russia.

This is starting to seriously concern me. If they dawdle too long about going in, it'll be a massive clusterf**k, and if they never go in, this whole thing will have essentially been for nothing (and Hamas will inevitably do something like the initial attack again in a few years anyway, and Israel will inevitably respond with collective-punishment-oriented shock and awe again, and and and...).

Altertnatively, after literal Hamas enabler Netanyahu is deposed Israel can go about finally pursuing a political solution - with its neighbours - to all this (one that isn't "expel millions of people" btw)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/Hbomberguy/status/1716682303546818752?s=20
Seriously, whoever is running the 'Israel' twitter account needs to be replaced, even if you support Israel in this conflict you've got to realize how bad it's been going PR wise (which yes, like it or not, is apart of any conflict).

And this is all after Ukraine provided a stellar model for how to do so in the modern age.

[strangerinthealps]

Peace with Saudi Arabia might still be on.

Essentially every public statement made by the Israeli government in Hebrew implies or outright states that they're going into Gaza and the only things left to decide are timing and the objectives beyond "destroying Hamas" (whether that means full reoccupation, forcibly installing the PLO, or asking a foreign coalition to be the occupiers -- latter seems unlikely as no one wants it).

Unserious meme suggestion: if Jordan and Egypt don't want them, and independence is a non-starter, maybe Gaza should become a Saudi exclave? No Jewish political control, all local political factions ruthlessly suppressed, lots of educational and economic opportunities opened for Palestinians by attaching them to a country with a developed-world standard of living. (Yes, this has many obvious problems -- the most obvious being that not all Palestinians are Muslim and even most Muslim Palestinians would not be enthusiastic about becoming part of Saudi Arabia -- but I don't think it's any more ridiculous or less realistic than the pre-1967 three-state solution, and people still talk about that.)

Honestly, the leadership of most of the Arab nations don't give a crap about killing jews and would love to establish ties with Israel and drag their nations into the western world kicking and screaming.

Having said that, their populations are relatively uneducated, and the education they have received didn't exactly stress tolerance, so they are forced to tread lightly or risk a coup.

Iran kicked this whole thing off the hamstring the Abraham Accords.

I have faith in humanity that some day, we can all set aside out differences and get along. Just not any day soon, sadly.

[MasterJedi]

https://twitter.com/SALHACHIMI/status/1716482966124155291

Peace with Saudi Arabia might still be on.

Essentially every public statement made by the Israeli government in Hebrew implies or outright states that they're going into Gaza and the only things left to decide are timing and the objectives beyond "destroying Hamas" (whether that means full reoccupation, forcibly installing the PLO, or asking a foreign coalition to be the occupiers -- latter seems unlikely as no one wants it).

Unserious meme suggestion: if Jordan and Egypt don't want them, and independence is a non-starter, maybe Gaza should become a Saudi exclave? No Jewish political control, all local political factions ruthlessly suppressed, lots of educational and economic opportunities opened for Palestinians by attaching them to a country with a developed-world standard of living. (Yes, this has many obvious problems -- the most obvious being that not all Palestinians are Muslim and even most Muslim Palestinians would not be enthusiastic about becoming part of Saudi Arabia -- but I don't think it's any more ridiculous or less realistic than the pre-1967 three-state solution, and people still talk about that.)

The house of Saud doesn’t care about Israel existing anymore and certainly doesn’t care about that Palestinians. Their population might be a different story so they’ll probably “cool” on peace for a bit but it will move forward. Especially since the peace hurts Iran and their proxy wars.

[strangerinthealps]

Not sure why you posted this in response to my post. I have no issues with Israel defending itself. I do have a problem with statements like “there are no civilians in Gaza”. I do have a problem with Israel denying food and water to the Gazans. I do have a problem with the apartheid state set up in the West Bank that is continually expanding with more and more settlers. Israel is stepping up its bombing campaign and we will see how it evolves. Looks like US diplomacy might be helping in ramping down the response by Israel. Hope it continues to force Israel to stick to a proportional response. They should have started by assassinating the hamas leaders living the good life in Qatar before bombing civilian areas in Gaza with white phosphorus.

Also do you have a source on Israel only bombing Hamas leadership or troops/ returning fire on the rockets fired from Gaza?

Do I have an intelligence source within the IDF? Of course not.

I simply have an intimate knowledge of how this sort of warfare works, and the goals of both sides in the conflict.

Why would Israel intentionally target civilians when every civilian death is effectively a win for Hamas and Iran, placing pressure on Israel from the international community to stand down?

Hamas and Iran are actively sacrificing civilians in the belief that Israel will be forced into a cease-fire before they can remove Hamas from control of Gaza. It may work.

On the other hand, Iran would happily sacrifice every Palestinian in Gaza, as the more unrest in the region grows, the more recruits their movement will have, and the more influence they will be able to exert in their neighbors' countries.

They already have Hezbollah forces in Syria and Lebanon that are too numerous for those nations to control, and forces with effectively free reign in Iraq, outside the major cities. They have the Houthis in Yemen. They enjoy large followings in Saudi, Egypt and Jordan that they would love to similarly convert into military forces beyond the control of those governments, which force those governments to tread lightly.

This is simply my tactical assessment. Feel free to take it or leave it.

[strangerinthealps]

The current leadership and especially the far right groups within it would do it if they could get away with it. Look at what they are doing to the people of the West Bank. Their goal is to annex all of the land of the West Bank and they aren't even quiet about it. What are they going to do with all the Palestinians already living there?

They are certainly due for a change in leadership, but look who's talking. Glass houses.

I will say that there was much hope for the 2 state solution early on. Every time a step was taken forward, Hamas would fire some rockets, or kidnap someone and it would be two steps back, and frankly, the Israeli response would often be exactly what Iran was hoping for...

I wish they could go back to 1948 and accept that solution. It was reoffered as recently as 2008, but that was a long time ago, now.

[strangerinthealps]

This is starting to seriously concern me. If they dawdle too long about going in, it'll be a massive clusterf**k, and if they never go in, this whole thing will have essentially been for nothing (and Hamas will inevitably do something like the initial attack again in a few years anyway, and Israel will inevitably respond with collective-punishment-oriented shock and awe again, and and and...).

Yeah, if they fail to remove Hamas, this will have been a huge loss for Israel, and the longer they wait, the more opinion turns against them.

[strangerinthealps]

Alright tax dodgers, back to the 2023 Holy War.

Looks like the USA is gearing up for an escalation in the region, particularly against US military bases.

PBS Hews Hour

https://youtu.be/nZ1VqYHeplo?t=718

8 attacks against US troops in the region. Syria, Iraq bases etc. The US are not just being drawn into the battle to defend against Iran, but in fact, simply to defend their existing interests from all manner of evil-doers.

Hezbollah getting itchy in the north.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-24/israels-northern-town-elders-are-preparing-for-an-escalation/103008576


An Israeli soldier instructs an ABC team to take cover and stay put during the heaviest rocket barrage from Lebanon since the war's start.(ABC News: Tom Joyner)
 
Since the October 7 attacks, this region has seen the deadliest outbreak of violence since Israel's all-out war with Lebanon in 2006.

There have been relentless rocket bombardments, exchanges of gunfire and even several infiltration attempts by Hezbollah militants.

Interesting interview with Joni Erst, R-Iowa, who visited Israel last week. She looked shocked.

Joni Ernst, R-Iowa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsVMmFVzCUc

Trey looks like Max Headroom. She revealed a lot of information quickly without complication. She has a remarkably effective method of communication and speaks so clearly.

The question that they are raising is all about Iran.

And finally, Barack Obama released a five page Instagram Post about the conflict:

Thoughts From Barack Obama

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cywh4YzvftG/

Of course. Its a win-win for Iran, who absolutely does NOT want the Abraham Accords to proceed or a two-state solution in Israel to ever work.

As long as they can keep their hands clean enough not to give the US a legitimate reason to attack them, they can sit back and sew the 'rewards' from the comfort of their borders while their proxy armies fight the Israel, the US, and any other allies.

If we back down, we continue to look weak, and isolate an Israel that could legitimately be overwhelmed through the sheer number of warm bodies that Iran is willing to throw at them.

If we are drawn into the fight, the whole region descends into chaos and any peace is kicked 20+ years down the road.

In 20+ years, a majority of Americans might support, or at least wash their hands of an Israeli genocide.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Here is an interesting documentary on Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Rise of Netanyahu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W-xxpXzAC0

As a soldier from the 1967 war, his career really took off when he was an SAS soldier. Netanyahu, dressed as an aircraft mechanic stormed a hijacked plane and killed the Islamic terrorists on board. He was literally a hero after he put himself in harms was for a plane load of people. It has been noted as one of the most successful attacks on Islamic hijackers.

Starting in the USA, Netanyahu rose to prominence only because of the timing of Hamas terrorist attacks during his political career.

For 2023, it would appear Israel have the right person for the job making it surprising his southern border was so ill prepared for the terrorist attacks of Oct 7.

I guess with Islamic terrorist attacks, everything looks easy in hindsight. Similar to September 11, 2001.

[Sbane]

Not sure why you posted this in response to my post. I have no issues with Israel defending itself. I do have a problem with statements like “there are no civilians in Gaza”. I do have a problem with Israel denying food and water to the Gazans. I do have a problem with the apartheid state set up in the West Bank that is continually expanding with more and more settlers. Israel is stepping up its bombing campaign and we will see how it evolves. Looks like US diplomacy might be helping in ramping down the response by Israel. Hope it continues to force Israel to stick to a proportional response. They should have started by assassinating the hamas leaders living the good life in Qatar before bombing civilian areas in Gaza with white phosphorus.

Also do you have a source on Israel only bombing Hamas leadership or troops/ returning fire on the rockets fired from Gaza?

Do I have an intelligence source within the IDF? Of course not.

I simply have an intimate knowledge of how this sort of warfare works, and the goals of both sides in the conflict.

Why would Israel intentionally target civilians when every civilian death is effectively a win for Hamas and Iran, placing pressure on Israel from the international community to stand down?

Hamas and Iran are actively sacrificing civilians in the belief that Israel will be forced into a cease-fire before they can remove Hamas from control of Gaza. It may work.

On the other hand, Iran would happily sacrifice every Palestinian in Gaza, as the more unrest in the region grows, the more recruits their movement will have, and the more influence they will be able to exert in their neighbors' countries.

They already have Hezbollah forces in Syria and Lebanon that are too numerous for those nations to control, and forces with effectively free reign in Iraq, outside the major cities. They have the Houthis in Yemen. They enjoy large followings in Saudi, Egypt and Jordan that they would love to similarly convert into military forces beyond the control of those governments, which force those governments to tread lightly.

This is simply my tactical assessment. Feel free to take it or leave it.

Multiple Israeli officials, including their President, made threatening comments implyng that they do not discriminate between Hamas and Gazan civilians. Then they started the bombing campaign with a bit of white phosphorus. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and they will focus strictly on military targets, which I understand are usually close to civilian areas and thus can cause civilian deaths if attacked. I am simply reacting to what I have heard from Israeli officials. There is a change in Israel in how they talk now versus how they did during the last intifadah, for example. Hopefully that is all talk and doesn't translate into indiscriminate bombing of civilians. Right now there is just not enough information to ascertain what exactly is going on in Gaza. Everything needs to be taken with a mountain of salt.

[Sbane]

The current leadership and especially the far right groups within it would do it if they could get away with it. Look at what they are doing to the people of the West Bank. Their goal is to annex all of the land of the West Bank and they aren't even quiet about it. What are they going to do with all the Palestinians already living there?

They are certainly due for a change in leadership, but look who's talking. Glass houses.

I will say that there was much hope for the 2 state solution early on. Every time a step was taken forward, Hamas would fire some rockets, or kidnap someone and it would be two steps back, and frankly, the Israeli response would often be exactly what Iran was hoping for...

I wish they could go back to 1948 and accept that solution. It was reoffered as recently as 2008, but that was a long time ago, now.

I have already stated in this thread that I completely blame Hamas and other groups with a similar ideology of "eliminate the jews" for the failure of a two state solution when offered by moderate voices within Israel. Unfortunately that has led to the rise of the far right in Israel that also doesn't want a two state solution. In fact the Netanyahu government helped prop up Hamas because they know it makes a two state solution impossible. Both extremes in Israel and Palestine need to be condemned for this as their actions led to the murder of 1500+ Isrealis on 10/7 and is leading to thousands of civilian deaths right now in Gaza.

[strangerinthealps]

Not sure why you posted this in response to my post. I have no issues with Israel defending itself. I do have a problem with statements like “there are no civilians in Gaza”. I do have a problem with Israel denying food and water to the Gazans. I do have a problem with the apartheid state set up in the West Bank that is continually expanding with more and more settlers. Israel is stepping up its bombing campaign and we will see how it evolves. Looks like US diplomacy might be helping in ramping down the response by Israel. Hope it continues to force Israel to stick to a proportional response. They should have started by assassinating the hamas leaders living the good life in Qatar before bombing civilian areas in Gaza with white phosphorus.

Also do you have a source on Israel only bombing Hamas leadership or troops/ returning fire on the rockets fired from Gaza?

Do I have an intelligence source within the IDF? Of course not.

I simply have an intimate knowledge of how this sort of warfare works, and the goals of both sides in the conflict.

Why would Israel intentionally target civilians when every civilian death is effectively a win for Hamas and Iran, placing pressure on Israel from the international community to stand down?

Hamas and Iran are actively sacrificing civilians in the belief that Israel will be forced into a cease-fire before they can remove Hamas from control of Gaza. It may work.

On the other hand, Iran would happily sacrifice every Palestinian in Gaza, as the more unrest in the region grows, the more recruits their movement will have, and the more influence they will be able to exert in their neighbors' countries.

They already have Hezbollah forces in Syria and Lebanon that are too numerous for those nations to control, and forces with effectively free reign in Iraq, outside the major cities. They have the Houthis in Yemen. They enjoy large followings in Saudi, Egypt and Jordan that they would love to similarly convert into military forces beyond the control of those governments, which force those governments to tread lightly.

This is simply my tactical assessment. Feel free to take it or leave it.

Multiple Israeli officials, including their President, made threatening comments implyng that they do not discriminate between Hamas and Gazan civilians. Then they started the bombing campaign with a bit of white phosphorus. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and they will focus strictly on military targets, which I understand are usually close to civilian areas and thus can cause civilian deaths if attacked. I am simply reacting to what I have heard from Israeli officials. There is a change in Israel in how they talk now versus how they did during the last intifadah, for example. Hopefully that is all talk and doesn't translate into indiscriminate bombing of civilians. Right now there is just not enough information to ascertain what exactly is going on in Gaza. Everything needs to be taken with a mountain of salt.

Quite frankly, it's difficult to discriminate Hamas from civilians even from a practical academic standpoint, sitting behind a desk, much less in the heat of battle.

I think that the Israelis may be trying to pull a Prince Hal at Harfleur and scare any legitimate non-combatants into getting out of the way.

But what is a Hamas 'soldier' vs a civilian when, outside of a photo op, they never wear uniforms, or wear Israeli uniforms? Folks who seem like civilians and throw their hands up for mercy one second can draw a firearm or detonate an explosive the next second.

They utilize children as riflemen, to carry bombs, suicide or otherwise, or just to provide a distraction by throwing stones and molotovs.

They utilize 'unarmed' women as suicide bombers and human shields.

Hell, the closest thing they have to a uniform is their standard issue body armor, the ubiquitous, seemingly willing woman in a hajib from which to shoot behind.

In all that, during the heat of battle, how do you effectively discriminate between Hamas and civilian.

If you have a good solution, please share it.

[strangerinthealps]

I have already stated in this thread that I completely blame Hamas and other groups with a similar ideology of "eliminate the jews" for the failure of a two state solution when offered by moderate voices within Israel. Unfortunately that has led to the rise of the far right in Israel that also doesn't want a two state solution. In fact the Netanyahu government helped prop up Hamas because they know it makes a two state solution impossible. Both extremes in Israel and Palestine need to be condemned for this as their actions led to the murder of 1500+ Isrealis on 10/7 and is leading to thousands of civilian deaths right now in Gaza.

If it seems like I am bagging on you, that is not my intention. I am speaking WITH you, and honestly in agreement with much you are saying.

My apologies if that is unclear.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If we back down, we continue to look weak, and isolate an Israel that could legitimately be overwhelmed through the sheer number of warm bodies that Iran is willing to throw at them.

As each new video comes out from Oct 7 showing the activities of our Islamic terrorist friends, it would appear that the Israeli's are becoming more incensed.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Uh, but some high schoolers in San Francisco said "from the river to the sea". That's more important.
https://twitter.com/Mondoweiss/status/1716605435523080490?s=20

[Silent Hunter]

Spoiler alert: The ties are it's headed by a former National Security Adviser to Bibi.

[afleitch]

Israeli public relations has been, broadly, successful even with the ongoing bombardment of Gazans because it's victims are effectively 'named'. Their story, the hostage stories, interviews with family etc are rightly, out there and discussed.

What's painful is that Gazans are either in a literal blackout or their plight is seen as conditional. They are unseen.

Countless, nameless, thousands are dead and the best we can get are Western based Palestinians recounting frantic phone calls. Or no phone calls.

The problem for Israel, being a democracy, is that a ground war will have to allow for the expected media access that goes with such an operation. And independent access to war zones. And sites they have already bombed.

Now if Israel is correct that lobbing missiles into apartment buildings is based on accurate intel, and is an appropriate response, a partial ground invasion shouldn't be an issue for them. It would justify current and past tactics and journalistic and independent verification would support them.

But that means allowing the world to be embedded in Gaza with them.

[afleitch]

Quite a significant UN intervention

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1716825618728603907

[PSOL]

Saudi Arabian citizens are leaving Beirut.

[GALeftist]

The house of Saud doesn’t care about Israel existing anymore and certainly doesn’t care about that Palestinians. Their population might be a different story so they’ll probably “cool” on peace for a bit but it will move forward. Especially since the peace hurts Iran and their proxy wars.

This is true, but they won't want to be one-upped by the UAE, so they likely will press for concessions of some sort.

[Logical]

There is literally no way for Israel to win isn't there?
Launch a ground invasion -> fight on multiple fronts -> suffer heavy casualties -> get bogged down -> lose western support
Back down -> admit defeat -> restart an even more vicious internal unrest

[Jingizu]

The last time there was a winning option would’ve been if Israel went into Gaza to remove Hamas following Hamas’ coup against Fatah. But we’ve learned why that didn’t ever happen, right Bibi?

[OSR stands with Israel]

There is literally no way for Israel to win isn't there?
Launch a ground invasion -> fight on multiple fronts -> suffer heavy casualties -> get bogged down -> lose western support
Back down -> admit defeat -> restart an even more vicious internal unrest

That is the thing. There is literally no way to defeat Hamas without a massive ground invasion or a massive bombing campaign, both of which would be deemed as war crimes and get condemnation from the international community . The fact is sometimes there is no good options and you cant expect nations to put "international law" over their own self interest especially when those laws would make it so you cant respond effectively at all.

[Vosem]

There is literally no way for Israel to win isn't there?
Launch a ground invasion -> fight on multiple fronts -> suffer heavy casualties -> get bogged down -> lose western support
Back down -> admit defeat -> restart an even more vicious internal unrest

The problem is that this part seems to be mythical. Basically any look at polling shows that support for Israel increases during patterns of acute confrontation with the Palestinians (including this time around; as we're moving further from the actual terrorist attack support for Israel has continued to, uh, grow, in spite of hospital-bombing news and whatnot); news of intensified Israeli bombing of Gaza has caused support for Israel to grow, not shrink, in the past. This piece is framed in a kind of doomer-ish way, and I think the 2013 result was a pro-Israel outlier, but observe obvious spikes associated with the 2006 war in Lebanon, associated with Operation Protective Edge in 2014, and associated with border clashes in 2018. There's little reason to think this time would be different.

(Similarly, in spite of vague declines on the right, over the course of 2022 support for Ukraine among ordinary Americans actually increased a lot. There is a pattern where many ordinary people are leery about becoming involved in a conflict when it begins, even by sending aid -- although this was much more of a problem for Ukraine at the outset than it is for Israel right now, since they have so much stored goodwill -- but when "our ally" begins winning in some visible way, people become more supportive of helping them.)

People really don't like this, because I think it is not how they imagine public opinion working. (But I think most of the people who disagree with this also thought that Israeli public relations strategies before 2018 had been failing for many years, when the state's position in American public opinion actually continued to improve throughout the 2010s.)

(None of this to deny the existence of a backlash post-2018 -- I think this is definitely real and associated with the general turn away from positions associated with Donald Trump, particularly among self-identified progressive Democrats. Nor is it to deny that periods of intensified conflict with the Palestinians cause worse media depictions, which they definitely do -- it is just that popular American opinion regarding Israel is not really downstream from mainstream media portrayals of the country, so among ordinary voters these bounce off, although they probably do affect policymakers. Nor is it even to deny the existence of a large and active anti-Israeli movement on campus before 2018 -- as I've said elsewhere, I think this movement actually peaked before 2018, at sometime around 2014, after which you saw a renaissance of campus left-wing pro-Israel activism, from which the Biden and Buttigieg campaigns -- and given certain patterns perhaps Harris, though I did not observe that -- recruited activists during the 2020 Democratic primaries.)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/10/justin-amash-relatives-killed-israel-airstrike-gaza-church
Former US Rep Amash has family who was killed in Gaza.