KY-GOV (Emerson): Beshear +16

[wbrocks67]

Beshear (D) 49%
Cameron (R) 33%
Someone else 5%
Undecided 13%

Beshear approval: 44/28 (with 28% “neutral” as well)

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2023-poll-beshear-holds-16-point-lead-over-cameron-in-gubernatorial-election/

Is there even a 3rd party on the ballot?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

[Skill and Chance]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

If Beshear wins significantly, that would be an indication that current polling methods are relatively accurate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

If Beshear wins significantly, that would be an indication that current polling methods are relatively accurate.

Nope, sorry. John Bel Edward's had very high approvals and did not win by this much. This would not match with Trump +4 in the PV

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably an outlier, but I'm moving this to Lean D. Even closer to Likely at this point.

Initially I thought the polls might tighten by the fall, but Cameron as a candidate just cratered badly. The dude made a strategic error by not sitting the gov race out and wait to take McTurtleman's seat once the time has come. Now that ship might have sailed as he's damaged goods.

[Roll Roons]

Cameron won't lose by 16 points, but he's unquestionably the underdog here.

Though I don't think this has any real national implication aside from a possible Beshear presidential bid in 2028.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

I'd be more interested in the reaction of SnowLabrador, lol.

[SnowLabrador]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

I'd be more interested in the reaction of SnowLabrador, lol.

I've said this before and I'll say it again: It'll mostly mean that Beshear is a better messenger than most red-state Democrats, and that Cameron was a horrible candidate. It means a lot less for 2024 than people think it does.

This of course assumes that polling is accurate in this race, which is far from guaranteed; recall that in 2015 Matt Bevin was seen as the underdog in the general election.

[Xing]

Almost definitely an outlier, but Cameron would need a bigger polling error than 2015/2016/2020 to win. I don't think a decent-sized Beshear win necessarily means that Biden will win as well, since it's a very different race and a lot can change in a year, but I don't think there will be an overwhelming number of Trump/D downballot voters (some yes, but not enough for results like a 50/50 Senate and a Trump victory.)

[Lief 🗽]

Just FYI the undecideds in this poll would vote for Trump in 2024 by a 59-2 margin. Still a good poll for Beshear obviously though.

[wbrocks67]

Just FYI the undecideds in this poll would vote for Trump in 2024 by a 59-2 margin. Still a good poll for Beshear obviously though.

Though at the same time, pretty ambivalent about Beshear: 16/10 approval.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I like it therefore I think it’s accurate

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

The same poll has Trump +29, outperforming his 2020 results by 3 points and outperforming Cameron by 45.

[Vosem]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

The same poll has Trump +29, outperforming his 2020 results by 3 points and outperforming Cameron by 45.

And KY/WV are some of the states with the most persistently Democratic-favorable polling, at least in presidential years (less sure for gubernatorial races). Trump+29 in KY is actually a really strong poll for Trump 2024, which makes it even wackier (and more impressive for Beshear) that the same poll has him up 16 points.

[Skill and Chance]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

The same poll has Trump +29, outperforming his 2020 results by 3 points and outperforming Cameron by 45.

And KY/WV are some of the states with the most persistently Democratic-favorable polling, at least in presidential years (less sure for gubernatorial races). Trump+29 in KY is actually a really strong poll for Trump 2024, which makes it even wackier (and more impressive for Beshear) that the same poll has him up 16 points.

3rd year state level elections happen on their own planet IMO.

[GALeftist]

Why did Cameron even run for Governor? Not saying he can't win but this is literally the only statewide race in Kentucky in the next generation or so that he could plausibly lose.

[Pollster]

Have to imagine that Cameron losing decisively here would further the GOP primary base's rejection of "establishment" and/or McConnell-aligned candidates and electability arguments.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

I mean it could just mean a popular governor from an opposite party state wins big like Beebe in 2010 and Baker in 2018

[GALeftist]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

I mean it could just mean a popular governor from an opposite party state wins big like Beebe in 2010 and Baker in 2018

2023 Kentucky is a lot more polarized than 2010 Arkansas or 2018 Massachusetts.

[Atlas Force]

Why did Cameron even run for Governor? Not saying he can't win but this is literally the only statewide race in Kentucky in the next generation or so that he could plausibly lose.

Practice and/or raising funds for his real ambition: succeeding McConnell.

[President Johnson]

A strong Lean Democratic, maybe even Likely.

Beshear is almost certainly going to win at this point, even though this poll seems like an outlier. I could see a result like 52-46% though. And there goes another supposedly strong Republican candidate.

[BigZuck08]

Lean D --> Likely D

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

You do realize Emerson is showing results like that lmao.

If you believe this poll, you have to believe that poll.

[junior chįmp]

Beshear won't win by that much but don't be surprised if he wins. He's taken left wing positions on trans rights and abortion but he's still leading. Why? Because issues don't matter. Just look like Howdy Doodie with an "awe shucks" personality and no one cares.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obvious outlier as far as the margin goes, but he is clearly in the drivers' seat and coasting to a win. It's just going to be a matter of how much he wins by.

Can you imagine if he won by this much though!?