NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[wbrocks67]

Early in-person: 23,710
Dem: 11,493 (48.5%)
Rep: 8,151 (34.4%)

Wonder how much more this gap will close.

Yep, curious which way it will go.

For reference, 2022 had 214k early in-person votes, 47% D, 30% R. Curious how close will get to that number.

[Senator Incitatus]

Early in-person: 23,710
Dem: 11,493 (48.5%)
Rep: 8,151 (34.4%)

Wonder how much more this gap will close.

Yep, curious which way it will go.

For reference, 2022 had 214k early in-person votes, 47% D, 30% R. Curious how close will get to that number.

Certainly lower in turnout and the unaffiliated vote, it being an off-off election. Likely (though not necessarily a lower Democratic vote too, given the environment and decreasing Republican skepticism about early voting.

Any idea what the 2021 numbers were? They are probably still our best comparison.

[oldtimer]

VBM returned: 328,843
Dem: 215,747 (65.6%)
Rep: 69,519 (21.1%)

Early in-person: 23,710
Dem: 11,493 (48.5%)
Rep: 8,151 (34.4%)

This doesn't look that fresh for Democrats when compared with 2021.

I wonder if both Virginia and N.J. spring similar surprises.

[wbrocks67]

VBM returned: 328,843
Dem: 215,747 (65.6%)
Rep: 69,519 (21.1%)

Early in-person: 23,710
Dem: 11,493 (48.5%)
Rep: 8,151 (34.4%)

This doesn't look that fresh for Democrats when compared with 2021.

I wonder if both Virginia and N.J. spring similar surprises.

On the contrary. Early in person voting was only D+12 in 2021.

[wbrocks67]

Here's what I have for final comparisons. I've found the breakdown for in-person early from 2021, but haven't found the exact #s for either VBM or in-person in terms of votes.

2023
Total early vote: 353k — D+43 [65-22]
In-person: 24k — D+14 [49-34]
VBM: 329k — D+45 [66-21]

2022
Total early vote: 726k — D+36 [59-23]
In-person: 214k — D+17 [47-30]
VBM: 512k — D+44 [64-20]

2021
Total early vote: 761k — D+37 [59-22]
In-person: — D+12 [44-32]
VBM:

[Duke of York]

Here's what I have for final comparisons. I've found the breakdown for in-person early from 2021, but haven't found the exact #s for either VBM or in-person in terms of votes.

2023
Total early vote: 353k — D+43 [65-22]
In-person: 24k — D+14 [49-34]
VBM: 329k — D+45 [66-21]

2022
Total early vote: 726k — D+36 [59-23]
In-person: 214k — D+17 [47-30]
VBM: 512k — D+44 [64-20]

2021
Total early vote: 761k — D+37 [59-22]
In-person: — D+12 [44-32]
VBM:

So its more Democratic this year than 2021.

[Senator Incitatus]

So its more Democratic this year than 2021.

So far, yes, though (a) the early vote gap closed significantly on day two and (b) VBM is a fraction of, and only matters relative to, election day turnout.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So its more Democratic this year than 2021.

So far, yes, though (a) the early vote gap closed significantly on day two and (b) VBM is a fraction of, and only matters relative to, election day turnout.

This is the key thing everyone ignores. I'll also throw in (c) overall turnout isn't very important, only turnout in a few districts.

It seems every election people ignore the constantly thrown out explanations about how this stuff really doesn't matter outside of Nevada. And even if New Jersey had some Ralston-equivalent guru who was able to crunch this sort of data and make meaningful projections and that guy had access to district-specific info, any projections would have to come from him, not random people on the site formerly known as Twitter.

[Roll Roons]

What was Murphy’s approval in Morning Consult?

[Senator Incitatus]

To emphasize a point I made earlier about Republicans largely spending indirectly and being hard to compare, the total overall spend is $22M to $8M. Still a large Democratic advantage, but not zero on the Republican side as an earlier tweet here implied.

What was Murphy’s approval in Morning Consult?

I don’t think they’re making their data immediately public anymore.

[wbrocks67]

What was Murphy’s approval in Morning Consult?

54/38

[Progressive Pessimist]

To emphasize a point I made earlier about Republicans largely spending indirectly and being hard to compare, the total overall spend is $22M to $8M. Still a large Democratic advantage, but not zero on the Republican side as an earlier tweet here implied.

What was Murphy’s approval in Morning Consult?

I don’t think they’re making their data immediately public anymore.

I'm starting to get mailers from the Republicans nearly every day now-they seem to be ramping up. However, Democrats haven't stopped and I am still seeing their ads and mailers even more frequently.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 932,070
Dem: 531,980 (57.1%)
Rep: 174,017 (18.7%)

Total ballots returned: 341,172
Dem: 223,433 (65.5%)
Rep: 72,066 (21.1%)

Dem return rate: 42.0%
Rep return rate: 41.4%

In-Person Early Voting: 35,588
Dem: 16,925 (47.6%)
Rep: 12,440 (35.0%)

Total EV: 376,760
Dem: 240,358 (63.8%)
Rep: 84,506 (22.4%)

[Senator Incitatus]

What was Murphy’s approval in Morning Consult?

54/38

For context, this is (insignificantly) lower than it was in their October 2021 poll (57%). Biden is also significantly lower in most NJ polling than he was in 2021, when he was barely underwater in most polling.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/state-government/offshore-wind-in-new-jersey-is-off-as-orsted-drops-out/

The offshore wind project that was a big campaign issue in two coastal districts (LDs 2 and 11) has been canceled. Democrats were betting big on this one.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/state-government/offshore-wind-in-new-jersey-is-off-as-orsted-drops-out/

The offshore wind project that was a big campaign issue in two coastal districts (LDs 2 and 11) has been canceled. Democrats were betting big on this one.

The $1B subsidy was also sponsored by Paul Moriarty, running in the 4th, and his opponent has been hitting him for months for throwing money out of the district at an unpopular project. It's probably going to be a bigger impact there than the 2nd, which I don't think anyone has been stressing over (though it is a fringe pickup opportunity).

The 11th is tricky to handicap on the issue; Gopal criticized the deal and voted against it. Dnistrian has been trying to make an issue out of it, but I'm not sure he has been successful. Gopal has tried to turn it on him by pointing out he did previously work for an offshore wind company, but I'm not sure that has stuck either.

[Birdish]

It will be fun watching Van Drew(or any republican) run on anti-Wind in the upcoming governor's race after reading his released statement. That plays really well on the shore, but even with Republican opposition, Wind Energy is still relatively popular in the state. The dead whales bit isn't going to fly among suburban swing voters who believe in climate change.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 926,497
Dem: 528,839 (57.1%)
Rep: 172,873 (18.7%)

Total ballots returned: 352,342
Dem: 230,228 (65.3%)
Rep: 74,379 (21.1%)

Dem return rate: 43.5%
Rep return rate: 43.0%

In-person early vote: 45,972
Dem: 21,658 (47.1%)
Rep: 16,119 (35.1%)

Total EV: 398,314
Dem: 251,886 (63.2%)
Rep: 90,498 (22.7%)

[Senator Incitatus]

The Globe (Wildstein) has put out a comprehensive voter guide with town by town 2021 results, district results across multiple races, and district demographics. I haven’t read the full-page descriptions of each race, but it’s hard to argue too strongly with the headline ratings. Maybe they are a little favorable to Republicans if you don’t think 2021 is a realistic baseline post-Dobbs. This is probably the best thing to read if you want to follow on election night.

[Senator Incitatus]

There’s an interesting tidbit buried in today’s news: Bob Hugin, who is usually pretty savvy, wrote a $10,000 personal check to Republicans in the 36th district, which is a Murphy +6 district on the extreme fringe of being competitive. They’re running on culture issues in a district with some slightly Republican Bergen and Meadowlands suburbs anchored by Passaic city, which is heavily Hispanic and Muslim and trended heavily to Trump in 2020. (One of the Assembly candidates is a convicted criminal who has been basically abandoned; the other is the twin of the Senate candidate. Neat!)

It could be a sign of extreme Republican optimism or Hugin could just be playing internal party politics by shoring up his support in the area. (Even though New Jersey was forced to go proportional for the legislature, the party is still governed on a per-county basis which incentivizes spending in deep Democratic areas.)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 924,890
Dem: 526,984 (57.0%)
Rep: 171,621 (18.6%)
= D+39.6

Total ballots returned: 363,422
Dem: 236,966 (65.2%)
Rep: 76,722 (21.1%)
= D+44.1

Dem return rate: 45.0%
Rep return rate: 44.7%

In-Person early voting: 57,085
Dem: 26,368 (46.2%)
Rep: 20,268 (35.5%)
= D+10.7

Total EV: 420,507
Dem: 263,334 (62.6%)
Rep: 96,990 (23.1%)
= D+39.5

Seems like we're very likely to end up right around the D+36-37 total EV from 2021/2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I got an ad accusing New Jersey Democrats of being "radical." This is normal for both sides to do to each other, but Democrats are focusing on abortion in this regards and Republicans are going back to the gas stove thing...really?

[Senator Incitatus]

I got an ad accusing New Jersey Democrats of being "radical." This is normal for both sides to do to each other, but Democrats are focusing on abortion in this regards and Republicans are going back to the gas stove thing...really?

I hate the use of a buzzword, but the gas car ban is a real formal policy proposal, unlike the stove thing. It’s shown to be politically potent this year.

The interesting dynamic is that the Democratic legislative caucus, even without Sweeney, is still led by relatively moderate members. Unlike the national Democratic Party, they’ve failed to isolate their radical members from their image. I think Murphy’s effort to be the “most progressive” governor is a big part of that. If the unlikely happens and the legislature flips, I expect a lot of fingers pointed at him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Supposed to drizzle on Tuesday in the north.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 924,915
Dem: 526,956 (57.0%)
Rep: 171,644 (18.6%)
= D+39.4

Total ballots returned: 377,143
Dem: 245,662 (65.1%)
Rep: 79,219 (21.0%)
= D+44.1

Dem return rate: 46.6%
Rep return rate: 46.2%

In-person early vote: 68,805
Dem: 31,422 (45.7%)
Rep: 24,524 (35.6%)
= D+10.1

Total EV: 445,948
Dem: 277,084 (62.1%)
Rep: 103,743 (23.3%)
= D+38.8