MS-GOV Mason-Dixon: Reeves + 8

[2016]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1709945565885452555

This is actually a disaster for Reeves! He should be up by more given how unpopular Pres Biden is in the State.

[BigZuck08]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

[2016]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

Reeves also seems a very unpopular guy too. He got only 51.9 % against Jim Hood in 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election

Meanwhile former Governors Phil Bryant & Haley Babour got nearly 60 % of the Vote when they ran for Re-Election in MS. Babour even beat an Incumbent D Governor in 2003.

[BigZuck08]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

Reeves also seems a very unpopular guy too. He got only 51.9 % against Jim Hood in 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election

Meanwhile former Governors Phil Bryant & Haley Babour got nearly 60 % of the Vote when they ran for Re-Election in MS. Babour even beat an Incumbent D Governor in 2003.

True, but it's Mississippi, and polling shows Reeves winning re-election. Though I don't think it'll be Reeves +17 like his internals suggest, but I can, however, see it being much like 2019.

[2016]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

Reeves also seems a very unpopular guy too. He got only 51.9 % against Jim Hood in 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election

Meanwhile former Governors Phil Bryant & Haley Babour got nearly 60 % of the Vote when they ran for Re-Election in MS. Babour even beat an Incumbent D Governor in 2003.

True, but it's Mississippi, and polling shows Reeves winning re-election. Though I don't think it'll be Reeves +17 like his internals suggest, but I can, however, see it being much like 2019.

Democrats consistently say they are making inroads in the Deep South but aside from Georgia (Where they have 2 DEM Senators) and Louisiana (Where they do have a DEM Governor for now) IMO it is just blowing up smoke. What do you think?

[Xing]

Pretty close to what I expect. I just don't think a really competitive race is that likely here.

[BigZuck08]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

Reeves also seems a very unpopular guy too. He got only 51.9 % against Jim Hood in 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election

Meanwhile former Governors Phil Bryant & Haley Babour got nearly 60 % of the Vote when they ran for Re-Election in MS. Babour even beat an Incumbent D Governor in 2003.

True, but it's Mississippi, and polling shows Reeves winning re-election. Though I don't think it'll be Reeves +17 like his internals suggest, but I can, however, see it being much like 2019.

Democrats consistently say they are making inroads in the Deep South but aside from Georgia (Where they have 2 DEM Senators) and Louisiana (Where they do have a DEM Governor for now) IMO it is just blowing up smoke. What do you think?

Yeah I don't see Democrats making inroads in the South besides Georgia and Texas. Louisiana is all but guaranteed to flip R this year and if Democrats keep going towards the progressive, far-left wing of the party the Deep South might only get more ailenated towards them because the Deep South is pretty conservative. Heck Mississippi itself is one of if not the most pro-life state in the union.

[2016]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

Reeves also seems a very unpopular guy too. He got only 51.9 % against Jim Hood in 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election

Meanwhile former Governors Phil Bryant & Haley Babour got nearly 60 % of the Vote when they ran for Re-Election in MS. Babour even beat an Incumbent D Governor in 2003.

True, but it's Mississippi, and polling shows Reeves winning re-election. Though I don't think it'll be Reeves +17 like his internals suggest, but I can, however, see it being much like 2019.

Democrats consistently say they are making inroads in the Deep South but aside from Georgia (Where they have 2 DEM Senators) and Louisiana (Where they do have a DEM Governor for now) IMO it is just blowing up smoke. What do you think?

Yeah I don't see Democrats making inroads in the South besides Georgia and Texas. Louisiana is all but guaranteed to flip R this year and if Democrats keep going towards the progressive, far-left wing of the party the Deep South might only get more ailenated towards them because the Deep South is pretty conservative. Heck Mississippi itself is one of if not the most pro-life state in the union.

Yeah, I think so too. The Florida Story is truly amazing: Republicans outnumber Democrats now by nearly 600,000!
I also think Ossoff is an accidential Senator in GA just like Sherrod Brown is in OH. They are voting like GA and OH is Massachusetts. If Governor Kemp runs for Senate in 2026 Republicans will get that Seat back.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pretty close to what I expect. I just don't think a really competitive race is that likely here.

LoL it's still 30 days, these G races aren't following of 303 and Reeves won by 5 it should be interesting

[BigZuck08]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

Reeves also seems a very unpopular guy too. He got only 51.9 % against Jim Hood in 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election

Meanwhile former Governors Phil Bryant & Haley Babour got nearly 60 % of the Vote when they ran for Re-Election in MS. Babour even beat an Incumbent D Governor in 2003.

True, but it's Mississippi, and polling shows Reeves winning re-election. Though I don't think it'll be Reeves +17 like his internals suggest, but I can, however, see it being much like 2019.

Democrats consistently say they are making inroads in the Deep South but aside from Georgia (Where they have 2 DEM Senators) and Louisiana (Where they do have a DEM Governor for now) IMO it is just blowing up smoke. What do you think?

Yeah I don't see Democrats making inroads in the South besides Georgia and Texas. Louisiana is all but guaranteed to flip R this year and if Democrats keep going towards the progressive, far-left wing of the party the Deep South might only get more ailenated towards them because the Deep South is pretty conservative. Heck Mississippi itself is one of if not the most pro-life state in the union.

Yeah, I think so too. The Florida Story is truly amazing: Republicans outnumber Democrats now by nearly 600,000!
I also think Ossoff is an accidential Senator in GA just like Sherrod Brown is in OH. They are voting like GA and OH is Massachusetts. If Governor Kemp runs for Senate in 2026 Republicans will get that Seat back.

Yeah I agree, assuming Kemp can make it past a Republican Primary. Then again, he is decently popular in the state despite his anti-Trump positions, so it is possible.

I also think OH will flip in 2024 because of Brown voting 99% of the time with President Biden and his policy positions not falling in line with the majority of Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Tossup Reeves only won by 5 last time

[Del Tachi]

Yeah, I'm coming around to the idea that Pressley will probably do worse than Hood. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, I'm coming around to the idea that Pressley will probably do worse than Hood. 

LoL D's have been overperform polls and Biden Approvals, WI by 11 and PA 5 straight

[wbrocks67]

It's too bad Presley is not getting more $$$ help, because I feel like it could definitely make this closer.

Depressing though that Reeves is still winning Independents and even wins "education" voters.

[Duke of York]

Reeves is going to win though I could see it being close.

[2016]

Reeves is going to win though I could see it being close.

Presley is no Jim Hood. Hood was pretty much an Institution in MS despite being a Democrat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reeves is going to win though I could see it being close.

Presley is no Jim Hood. Hood was pretty much an Institution in MS despite being a Democrat.

Reeves is clearly fav but D's have been overperform Biden Approvals WI by 11 and 5 PA specials it's winnable not to mention Landry runoff problem in LA

Reeves only win by 5 MOE it's not 8 it's 5, it's called upset and Kunce def Hawaley would be an upset

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

MS GOP is awful. Like Brownback-era KS terrible. It's a shame moderate Dems like Hood and Pressley can't get elected.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MS GOP is awful. Like Brownback-era KS terrible. It's a shame moderate Dems like Hood and Pressley can't get elected.

NC/TX/WI- Hold my beer

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R, but this would be a decent showing by Pressley.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Darn you beat me to it. I just posted this same poll after you did so I had to delete it.

But overall I expect Reeves to win re-election.

Lean R still.

Reeves also seems a very unpopular guy too. He got only 51.9 % against Jim Hood in 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election

Meanwhile former Governors Phil Bryant & Haley Babour got nearly 60 % of the Vote when they ran for Re-Election in MS. Babour even beat an Incumbent D Governor in 2003.

True, but it's Mississippi, and polling shows Reeves winning re-election. Though I don't think it'll be Reeves +17 like his internals suggest, but I can, however, see it being much like 2019.

Democrats consistently say they are making inroads in the Deep South but aside from Georgia (Where they have 2 DEM Senators) and Louisiana (Where they do have a DEM Governor for now) IMO it is just blowing up smoke. What do you think?

Yeah I don't see Democrats making inroads in the South besides Georgia and Texas. Louisiana is all but guaranteed to flip R this year and if Democrats keep going towards the progressive, far-left wing of the party the Deep South might only get more ailenated towards them because the Deep South is pretty conservative. Heck Mississippi itself is one of if not the most pro-life state in the union.

Yeah, I think so too. The Florida Story is truly amazing: Republicans outnumber Democrats now by nearly 600,000!
I also think Ossoff is an accidential Senator in GA just like Sherrod Brown is in OH. They are voting like GA and OH is Massachusetts. If Governor Kemp runs for Senate in 2026 Republicans will get that Seat back.

Sherrod Brown is definitely vulnerable next cycle but the idea of him being an "accidental" senator in that state despite having won three terms already (the first time decisively against a long-term incumbent) and having a political career there going back nearly 50 years is total BS, frankly. More inclined to agree with Ossoff though.

As for the poll results, playing exactly in line with my expectation that this will be a fairly easy R hold, but I could easily see it coming to single digits in the end. Presley is perhaps the best the D's could put up in a state like this nowadays.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's have overperform polls and Approvals all yrs long Reeves only won by 5, it's called an upset if the unexpected happened

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R.