With small swings in 5 elections, California would have voted for the winner from 1852-1996

[E-Dawg]

As is, California voted for the winner in all but 5 elections during this timeframe.  It was only on the losing side in 1880, 1884, 1912, 1960, & 1976. Here were the margins in those 5 elections:

1880: Hancock (D) + 0.09%
1884: Blaine (R) + 6.64%
1912: Roosevelt (R) + 0.006%
1960: Nixon (R) + 0.55%
1976: Ford (R) + 1.78%

In order for California to have been a perfect bellwether during this entire 144 year period, the only greater than 2 point swing that would have been needed was 1884. And with how elastic and low population the state was then, even that was very feasible. Outside of that, Carter would have needed to swing it just under 2 points, Kennedy just 0.55 points, and Garfield & Wilson needed a less than 0.1 point swing. It's crazy just how close California was to being a perfect bellwether for 144 years with extremely small vote changes in just 5 elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1884 isn’t exactly a small swing

[E-Dawg]

1884 isn’t exactly a small swing

True, but as I said, it was not a big lift considering the circumstances, and the other 4 swings would have been tiny.