If the south won the Civil War, would they have joined the Allies or the Axis during WWII?

[Mr. Ukucasha]

In this hypothetical scenario, the CSA was formed after the South won the Civil War. Obviously, this would change the timeline so much that, if a WWII happens, it would unfold entirely differently than it does in this timeline. But say nothing else really changes. World War I takes place in the same way with the same victors (with the CSA remaining neutral for this hypothetical scenario), Hitler's party wins a democratic election as the largest party in Germany, Hitler passes the Enabling Act giving him dictatorial powers, Hitler annexes Austria, Czechoslovakia, etc, the UK and France declare war on Germany after it invades Poland, Germany backstabs the USSR and invades it, etc.

It may initially seem as if the CSA would join the Axis given their similar racial views. The Nazis admired the South's segregation laws and used them as models for their Nuremberg Laws.

However, beyond a cursory glance, it appears highly unlikely that the South would join the Axis. First of all, the British and French supported the South during the Civil War, and if the CSA had won, it would have been due to their support. Thus, the CSA would be closer to France and the United Kingdom and therefore more likely to join their side in a conflict.

By far, Southerners were the most hostile towards the Nazis and most likely to support American intervention on behalf of the Allies in this timeline. Support for the Axis was primarily found in the North due to the large ethnic German populations, particularly in the Midwest, rather than in the South. Those living in the South were most likely to disdain the Nazis and their authoritarian policies. As well, although the Nazis admired some aspects of Southern racism, they also viewed it as an "unsophisticated" and "redneck" form of racism as opposed to their own "sophisticated" "(pseudo)scientific" approach. Take a look at this Nazi propaganda poster to gain a better understanding of how the Nazis viewed the Ku Klux Klan:




Thus, it seems more likely that the South would have joined the Allies and the US would have joined the Axis than the reverse.

[Alben Barkley]

You are correct that the South was the most interventionist region and anti-German, while parts of the Midwest with a heavier German presence were relatively more Axis-sympathetic (though this was NOT the case for the Northeast and West).

Ultimately, in a hypothetical world where the USA and CSA both still exist as independent nations and WW2 still goes down pretty much the same (remember the USA's intervention in WW1 was potentially decisive, and there is no WW2 as we know it without WW1 ending as it did, so this is questionable), I think it is likely that both join the Allies, if either still join either side. It's likely that any world in which the CSA won is a world in which Britain/France intervened on their behalf, so they might still have an affinity for them if not an active alliance. It would also likely be in their economic interests for the Allies to win. Meanwhile it's likely still in the best interests of the USA as well to side with the Allies. Remember most of the world did, to one degree or another, as it was. Few people wanted to see the armies of darkness take over Europe or the rest of the world. I can see this being something that brings the USA and CSA closer together, if it doesn't ultimately bring the nation back together again. And it's likely that in the years since the Civil War, both nations would have been close trading partners at least anyway. It might not be completely water under the bridge, but there's no particular reason to think they'd have to always be on opposing sides in a world war, any more than the US would for some reason have to always oppose Britain because we broke away from them in the first place.

Also, hilariously ironic that the Nazis of all people seem to be attacking the US's racism in that poster, while using racist and anti-semitic tropes themselves in the process. They just couldn't help themselves could they? At least the Soviets tended to keep their own evils out of their "And you are hanging negroes" style whataboutism propaganda.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Would not have lasted until 1939

[Mr. Smith]

Neither.

[HillGoose]

neither they would of all been to busy dying of cholera bcuz the old south was basically a third world hell hole

[VBM]

Considering that the Venn diagram of Americans who are neo-Nazis and Americans who support the Confederacy is basically a complete circle, I think it’s pretty obvious who the CSA would side with

[SWE]

A fun alt history hypothetical I've thought about - instead of the Zimmerman Telegraph offering Mexico a chance to reclaim the southwest, Germany offers the US a chance to reconquer the CSA

[7,052,770]

The CSA falls to a communist revolution between 1910 and 1940 (either a white one or a black one, probably not a multiracial one) and joins the Soviet side. So Allies I guess, with a nasty escalation of the Cold War afterward.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I have flirted with a Confederate timeline after I finish my current project. The CSA realistically wouldn't have held out that long, but that seemed boring to me. In my sketch of the timeline, which I probably won't ever even write, I have Huey Long keeping the CSA a neutral state that is semi-inclined to the Axis powers much like Spain or Siam was.

[Хahar 🤔]

It is really not feasible to imagine an independent Confederate state having the ability to seriously oppose the United States. At most you might see Irish-style neutrality.

Like every other American, I thought about what it would have been like if the result of the Civil War had gone the other way when I was 12, and then like most Americans I put it away after that, but lately I have been thinking about the social structure of an independent Confederate state. This would be an overwhelmingly Protestant country, but its only city would be Catholic New Orleans. The lack of free land and the general structure of the agrarian economy would serve to strongly discourage agrarian-oriented immigration from northern Europe, so what immigration the country did receive would be focused on New Orleans and predominantly from Catholic countries. This would maybe produce interesting social pressures even outside of the color line.

[Mr. Smith]

It is really not feasible to imagine an independent Confederate state having the ability to seriously oppose the United States. At most you might see Irish-style neutrality.

Like every other American, I thought about what it would have been like if the result of the Civil War had gone the other way when I was 12, and then like most Americans I put it away after that, but lately I have been thinking about the social structure of an independent Confederate state. This would be an overwhelmingly Protestant country, but its only city would be Catholic New Orleans. The lack of free land and the general structure of the agrarian economy would serve to strongly discourage agrarian-oriented immigration from northern Europe, so what immigration the country did receive would be focused on New Orleans and predominantly from Catholic countries. This would maybe produce interesting social pressures even outside of the color line.

More curious to me is where The Pacific goes, especially given how divided Oregon and California were....should they have joined, which America does Russia sell Alaska to? [Come to think of it, I don't know which way The Tsar was pointing to otl.]  Does the CSA overthrow Hawaii even sooner?

[Alben Barkley]

Considering that the Venn diagram of Americans who are neo-Nazis and Americans who support the Confederacy is basically a complete circle, I think it’s pretty obvious who the CSA would side with

That's today though, not in 1939 in an alternate world where the CSA won. It IS true that the South was generally the most interventionist and anti-Nazi part of the nation in WW2, believe it or not. Their population was overwhelmingly sympathetic to England, not Germany, since antebellum times. And what dumbass rednecks think isn't that relevant to what governments do anyway. Economic interests and foreign relations are going to have much more impact. I can't imagine the CSA wanting to antagonize the UK, France, and likely their neighbors to the North by joining the Axis; those would likely be their three biggest trading partners, for one thing. They have nothing to gain and everything to lose by siding with Germany; it not only would result in them being economically sanctioned and isolated, it could well lead to open conflict with the USA again, and this time they're not likely to win. Yeah they might have German backing, but the US will have British and ultimately Soviet backing, and an even larger advantage in population and industry than there was during the Civil War.

Simplifying this down to "both Nazis and Confederates are racist therefore they would be allies" just isn't a logical way of thinking about it, frankly. It didn't on paper make much sense for us to ally with the Soviets, after all, given our opposing ideologies, but our interests were aligned so it happened. I see no reason why this would be any different. Usually, interests trump ideology. Also keep in mind that South American nations like Brazil had even harsher slavery for even longer than the South did, and they still sided with the Allies.

Plus there's the fact that a Jewish Confederate, Judah P. Benjamin, was their Secretary of State who would have been instrumental to securing British/French support for the Confederacy to win in the first place. The CSA betraying not only Britain and France but also one of their founding fathers by siding with the Nazis because of some shared general racism simply makes no sense. Especially because the CSA's racism was so focused on Africans, which ironically in some ways is more like the colonial powers of Britain/France than the German anti-Semitism and otherwise bizarre racial theories about the superiority of Aryans to Slavs, etc. They also had an aristocracy more like Britain/France, yet at the same time still more focus on individual rights and liberties than the collectivist totalitarian Nazis.

Yeah, I just don't see it at all. The idea that they would have been allies simply relies on the most basic "both racists hurr durr" thinking, ignoring all the historical context and socioeconomic/political factors.

[Alben Barkley]

It is really not feasible to imagine an independent Confederate state having the ability to seriously oppose the United States. At most you might see Irish-style neutrality.

Like every other American, I thought about what it would have been like if the result of the Civil War had gone the other way when I was 12, and then like most Americans I put it away after that, but lately I have been thinking about the social structure of an independent Confederate state. This would be an overwhelmingly Protestant country, but its only city would be Catholic New Orleans. The lack of free land and the general structure of the agrarian economy would serve to strongly discourage agrarian-oriented immigration from northern Europe, so what immigration the country did receive would be focused on New Orleans and predominantly from Catholic countries. This would maybe produce interesting social pressures even outside of the color line.

More curious to me is where The Pacific goes, especially given how divided Oregon and California were....should they have joined, which America does Russia sell Alaska to? [Come to think of it, I don't know which way The Tsar was pointing to otl.]  Does the CSA overthrow Hawaii even sooner?

Russia supported the North in the Civil War.

[WalterWhite]

I think both the Union and the Confederacy would have developed a close economic relationship with the UK and France by the turn of the century. Both the Union and the Confederacy likely would have joined the Allies in both WWI and WWII.

[Senator Incitatus]

The Allies, undeniably beyond a shadow of a doubt. There is a better-than-decent chance the CSA would have tried to rejoin the British Empire around the turn of the century, rather than risk likely collapse. They would at least have been wholly dependent on British trade for the duration of their existence and would have remained distinctly Atlanticist in foreign policy, as they did in reality despite remaining in the Union.

But the U.S. would have remained neutral. You should have included this option.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

South Africa supported the Allies which I think underscores Alben's point. Assuming they would've sided with the Nazis due to also being racist is a pretty lazy and laughable assumption.

An independent CSA would have to be very heavily linked economically to the UK and France. It would also be downright suicidal to join the Axis with the US being part of the Allies.

[Alben Barkley]

I'd also like to add that a lot of those neo-Confederates aren't even Southern anymore! I've seen the Confederate flag flying in as far away places as Northern Michigan, and plenty of other places where it certainly would never have been flown in the 1860s. So what these idiots (who see it as a symbol of racism "rebellion" more than Southern pride) think today says precisely nothing about what the foreign policy of a hypothetical Southern state would have been during WW2. Probably not many German-Americans in the Midwest are sympathetic to the Nazis anymore or still wishing we had stayed neutral either. It was just a totally different time under totally different circumstances. Regional, ethnic, and ideological alignments, etc. were simply not the same at all.

[Ferguson97]

Their military would not have been strong enough for them to even entertain the idea of intervening.

[Senator Incitatus]

If the South Africa example doesn't underscore the point strongly enough, just look at where, in 1939–41, various interventionists (Cordell Hull, J. William Fulbright, Tom Connally, Walter F. George, Carter Glass, Alben Barkley himself) and non-interventionists (Hamilton Fish III, Charles Lindbergh, Ernest Lundeen, Chester Bowles, the Kennedy family) were from. Where you had a Southern anti-interventionist, like the fascist sympathizer Robert Reynolds, that man would be considered "exceptional."

I'm not sure a single notable member of the America First Committee was Southern, and it was the only region of the country which supported entering the war prior to Pearl Harbor. This almost feels like it was a test of historical knowledge and intelligence rather than an opinion poll.

[Aurelius2]

Yeah, if you think the Confederates would have joined the Axis on the basis of racism alone you know absolutely nothing about the history of Southern society and political thought. If anything, the sort of racial theories that had common ground with Nazism were much more in vogue in the north than in the south in the era before the war. Lothrop Stoddard and Madison Grant, who the Nazis borrowed extensively from in attempting to ideologically justify their racism, were both Northerners.

The idea that the North would have sided with the Axis is even more laughable. Likely in the European theater they either make a very late entry a la WW2, or stay out. Japanese aggression would have eventually forced the North into the Pacific theater one way or another.

[Senator Incitatus]

Yeah, if you think the Confederates would have joined the Axis you know absolutely nothing about the history of Southern society and political thought.

The idea that the North would have sided with the Axis is even more laughable. Likely in the European theater they either make a very late entry a la WW2, or stay out. Japanese aggression would have eventually forced the North into the Pacific theater one way or another.

In this alternate history, the North possibly never takes the Philippines or even Hawaii and therefore does not run into a conflict with Japan over Pacific resources. Annexation in the Pacific was at least heavily reliant on Southern support from men like John Morgan and ultimately on the Spanish-American War, which almost certainly would not have happened as it did if there were another country between the U.S. and Cuba.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, if you think the Confederates would have joined the Axis on the basis of racism alone you know absolutely nothing about the history of Southern society and political thought. If anything, the sort of racial theories that had common ground with Nazism were much more in vogue in the north than in the south in the era before the war. Lothrop Stoddard and Madison Grant, who the Nazis borrowed extensively from in attempting to ideologically justify their racism, were both Northerners.

The idea that the North would have sided with the Axis is even more laughable. Likely in the European theater they either make a very late entry a la WW2, or stay out. Japanese aggression would have eventually forced the North into the Pacific theater one way or another.

As I've noted before there's kind of a talking point spread by tankies and edgy online leftist types that the US almost joined the Axis and only didn't because of Pearl Harbor which is obviously complete bullsh!t and anyone who takes it even remotely seriously has proven themselves to an utter f[inks]ing moron, there's no other explanation for such a thing. Almost as dumb which I've brought up before is the claim that Japan didn't want to join the Axis but only did because pressure from the US forced them which is another claim that if someone makes you know they're an imbecile who should not be worth taken seriously on anything. (Even more hilarious is the justification that the Japanese obviously would've wanted to join the Axis because "they aren't even white".)

[Senator Incitatus]

There's this weird strain of pop history that assumes because the Axis was doing something very bad (to a large extent without public knowledge or foresight), the Allies were opposing them for very good reasons, and every historical villain would have backed the Axis. (We can apportion David Frum and George W. Bush some of the blame here.)

In reality, nearly every party to the conflict was fighting for definable territorial ambitions, perhaps even more so than in World War I, where there were major intra- and transnational ideological components at play. World War II was largely about addressing a distorted and dissolving world map.

But because the Axis were far more vicious than their predecessors in the Central Powers, we cast World War II in that light. It was a struggle between good (or at least neutral) and evil, but it wasn't a struggle over good and evil.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A fun alt history hypothetical I've thought about - instead of the Zimmerman Telegraph offering Mexico a chance to reclaim the southwest, Germany offers the US a chance to reconquer the CSA

The CSA probably would've joined WWI before the US did so this is feasible. Especially the Zimmerman Telegram was basically a joke (Mexico was in a civil war in 1917! Not a wise idea to start a new one. Also the US could easily have blockaded Mexixo and crippled its economy in months.), but this kind of underscores a big issue with the question: the CSA would've been so weak militarily that the odds of it not being retaken by the US in a later war are remote. Of course this scenario also involves the Confederacy winning the Civil War in the first place, which also is impossible without some stretches of reality.

[Mr. Smith]

Yeah, if you think the Confederates would have joined the Axis on the basis of racism alone you know absolutely nothing about the history of Southern society and political thought. If anything, the sort of racial theories that had common ground with Nazism were much more in vogue in the north than in the south in the era before the war. Lothrop Stoddard and Madison Grant, who the Nazis borrowed extensively from in attempting to ideologically justify their racism, were both Northerners.

The idea that the North would have sided with the Axis is even more laughable. Likely in the European theater they either make a very late entry a la WW2, or stay out. Japanese aggression would have eventually forced the North into the Pacific theater one way or another.

Only if The North keeps The West, which I'm not entirely sure does happen...in fact I'm only mostly certain Seward still gets Alaska from the Russians.

Breckinridge's running mate was Oregonian after all.