New Hampshire - POS (DeSantis internal) - Trump +28

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1708932895207747915?t=3Cg-PxG_XZQzGYXr-Lz...

[GALeftist]

>Distant third place in your own internal

[Respect and Compassion]

so many of us were hyping up DeSantis's strength as our opponent while saying Trump would be a relatively easy win for the pro-Democracy side

I know there are some people here (e.g. SnowLabrador) who are pointing out that 2024 won't necessarily be an easy win for Democracy, but there's a part of me that really wants to point out the goggles that make candidates like DeSantis surprisingly underperform and candidates like Trump overperform

This isn't a midterm where low propensity working class voters are likely to stay home more than college ed voters, nor is it a case where the incumbent Democrat (Biden) has decent favorabilities (e.g. Whitmer, Cortez-Masto, Mark Kelly, Laura Kelly). It looks more like a Sisolak and Mandela Barnes type of scenario in terms of our candidate's favorabilities, and while Trump is probably going to be outspent it likely won't be as impactful with Presidential media dynamics than statewide candidate media dynamics. He can also run on an ostensibly more sellable record (e.g. arguably better economic conditions and less foreign policy chaos) than Dr. Oz (not a prior officeholder, nevermind the fact that low propensity white working class favored Trump a lot more than Oz).

Ron was a red herring all along. Don is currently on track to have a better outcome than 2016. Things can change between now and November 5, 2024 but they definitely need to change for the better because I'm having a very hard time picturing a Democratic win without a combination of an improving economy and things like the Russo-Ukranian confident paying off well in an obvious way.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

None of this surprises me. I always said Rob would never bring back the type of voter the GOP has bled over the last decade nor does he appeal to the people Trump brought into the GOP because he isn't Trump.

It was always silly to believe Rob was the man who would restore the GOP to somewhat respectability.

[Respect and Compassion]

None of this surprises me. I always said Rob would never bring back the type of voter the GOP has bled over the last decade nor does he appeal to the people Trump brought into the GOP because he isn't Trump.

It was always silly to believe Rob was the man who would restore the GOP to somewhat respectability.

Indeed, your take should have been pretty obvious from the get-go, but a lot of other posters here bought into the Ron hype. Riding the Florida GOP machine to victory in 2018 mainly thanks to Rick Scott was never an indicator of a strong Presidential candidacy. Nor was beating Charlie Crist who the Democrats gave up on from the start, with a massive war chest and trends working out in your favor. Beating Florida Democrats in a midterm is not too dissimilar from beating Pennsylvania Republicans in a midterm (see: 2014), except that the former is arguably easier than the latter when you average things out.

[ꙮ]

Humiliating for DeSantis. Just an absolute dud of a campaign.

I do think it's interesting that New Hampshire is consistently Trump's worst state in the primary according to polling, he's usually polling 25-25 points lower in margin than his national numbers. There might be worse numbers in Utah, Vermont, or D.C., but nobody is exactly polling those places.

[xavier110]

Humiliating for DeSantis. Just an absolute dud of a campaign.

I do think it's interesting that New Hampshire is consistently Trump's worst state in the primary according to polling, he's usually polling 25-25 points lower in margin than his national numbers. There might be worse numbers in Utah, Vermont, or D.C., but nobody is exactly polling those places.

NH indies are going to overwhelmingly favor whoever is the de facto Trump alternative by the primary. This is a race (as evidenced by DeSantis/Haley/RDS totaling almost 40 percent of the vote) that Trump could lose in a 1-on-1 type environment. It’s one of the few early contests that won’t just be Trumper fan club meetings, based on the composition of voters.