1982 CA-Gov: Would Jerry Brown have won a third term?

[President Johnson]

California didn't have term-limits before 1990, so Governor Jerry Brown could have chosen to seek a third term. He instead sought a senate seat and was defeated by future governor Pete Wilson by around seven points. What if he ran for a third term in Sacramento instead? Would he have won against George Deukmejian. Given how close it was, you would think so, but on the other hand, Brown lost his senate race pretty easily.

[Podgy the Bear]

I don't think so--for three reasons:

1.  Brown was in significant political trouble from the Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) infestation in 1981 and 1982--which devastated the fruit crops in California. 
2.  The 1982 recession was especially hard in California.  In the era of less nationalized elections, even though the Republicans did suffer significantly, economic downturns tended to affect the local parties in power--to the detriment of Brown. 
3. Brown's quixotic presidential campaign in 1980 did him no favors.

If he had run for a third term rather than the open Senate seat, Brown probably would have done comparatively better.  But I believe that he would have still run behind Bradley's performance.    George Deukmejian was a strong candidate and was less polarizing than his primary opponent, Lieutenant Governor Mike Curb.