Did Beau's passing indirectly prevent Trump's reelection?

[Sir Mohamed]

This question already crossed my mind earlier. Did the tragic death of Beau Biden indirectly prevent Trump from being reelected in 2020?

Think of it that way: Given the election results, it's at least fair to say not every other Dem candidate would have beaten Trump. If Biden won the 413 map, I would have said almost anyone of the 2020 Dem field would have won too, though the actual results indicate Biden might have been maybe not the only one, but one of just few who could do it. So if Beau didn't die in 2015, Biden might actually have jumped into the 2016 race. While it's possible he would have had a serious shot at the nomination given HRC was more vulnerable than it seemed and lot of anti-Clinton Sanders voters would have had no issue with voting for Biden instead (especially if a Biden/Warren ticket was possible, as floated in 2015), I believe it's more likely Biden would have done not that great in the primaries. Imagine the incumbent VP dropping out after an embarrassing showing in IA or after losing badly in all February states. It's reasonable to assume he wouldn't have been a candidate in 2020 then either. I mean, someone who can't win the nomination sitting VP would have been doubted to pull it off in as a 77-year old former VP. Consquently, someone else is the 2020 nominee (not necessarily Sanders though) and he or she might have lost to Trump.

So is it possible Beau's passing indirectly caused Trump's loss?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I think Bloomberg and Kloubuchar would've still won 2020 (possibly by more than Biden did, especially Kloubuchar), but Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren would've lost.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Bloomberg and Kloubuchar would've still won 2020 (possibly by more than Biden did, especially Kloubuchar), but Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren would've lost.

Bloomberg? I'm not sure, tbh. Especially since he did so poorly in that one debate. Yes, Biden also had bad debate moments, but not that bad.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Beau living is the normal universe. Non-zero chance he'd have been the nominee in 2020 if he already had a term as Governor of Delaware under his belt. I've long felt like Joe Biden really ran in 2020 out of duty to his son, moreso than duty to his country.

[President Johnson]

I'm not 100% convinced would have run in 2016, had Beau lived on. There was internal pressure for him to stay out in order not to finish his career with a resounding defeat in Iowa. I think even Obama advised him to stay out.

I wonder whether Beau - if indeed elected governor - could have been a formidable candidate for 2020 or 2024. I guess he would have had a lot of potential. His death is just so incredibly sad, especially after Biden already had to go through this before.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If anything Beau's passing mentally traumatized Biden and contributes to a lot of his cognative decline. He hasn't been the same since 2015.

[President Johnson]

If anything Beau's passing mentally traumatized Biden and contributes to a lot of his cognative decline. He hasn't been the same since 2015.

The timing is more of a co-indidence in my view. I think Biden seemed more agile in 2016 still. He got slower during the four years out of office, so around 2017-2019.

[LabourJersey]

I'm not 100% certain that Biden would have won the 2016 primaries, but I think a Biden/Clinton/Sanders race would have been a lot better for the Democratic party, in that it wouldn't have taken on the airs of a Manichean struggle that the Clinton/Sanders race ultimately turned out - I think it wouldn't have been as ugly of a race as it was in real life, and would have damaged the nominee less than it damaged Clinton IRL.

2016 Biden would have absolutely beaten Trump, in my opinion. What happens in this alternate 2020 depends a lot of how Biden does, whether the pandemic happens in the same way as it did in IRL, whether Trump goes into media like people expected him to do in 2016, and others.

[darklordoftech]

Beau might be President now if he was alive.

[Del Tachi]

Yeah, had Beau lived he's quite possibly elected Governor of Delaware in 2016.  Joe Biden likely steps aside in this scenario, so that Beau can have a clearer path to running for president in 2020 or 2024. 

[SWE]

I doubt Beau would win in 2020. Hard to imagine the Democratic party electorate itching to run someone from a political dynasty after Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush choked in 2016. If Joe Biden doesn't run, it's hard to see anyone but Bernie winning the nomination.

Granted we don't know what his governorship would be like, for all I know maybe he does endear himself to the country (or at least enough important pieces of the Democratic base)

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I’ll play devil’s advocate here and say I think Biden could have and would have won the primary and the general in 2016. I have no idea if that means 2020 is a Trump redux or if the GOP completely shifts strategies. But Biden, at his prime, appealed to the working class and the base of the Democratic Party much better than Hillary. And I think, with Biden as an alternative, Bernie only would’ve caught fire with the usual progressive voters. Biden picks Warren as his running mate, assuaging any fears they may have had.

[Pres Mike]

I’ll play devil’s advocate here and say I think Biden could have and would have won the primary and the general in 2016. I have no idea if that means 2020 is a Trump redux or if the GOP completely shifts strategies. But Biden, at his prime, appealed to the working class and the base of the Democratic Party much better than Hillary. And I think, with Biden as an alternative, Bernie only would’ve caught fire with the usual progressive voters. Biden picks Warren as his running mate, assuaging any fears they may have had.

I agree. I know Biden easily beats Trump in 2016 in the general. But the primary? Not sure but I think he could have won. The Biden/Warren ticket plus a potential Sanders endorsement might do the trick (Sanders and Biden are genuine friends). Biden is the only white politician that rivals the Clinton with black outreach.

It all depends on Obama. If he is neutral, Biden has a chance. If he puts the thumbs down for Hillary, it would be tough

[Sumner 1868]

Trump was never getting reelected. Without COVID he would have faced a recession.

[LabourJersey]

I doubt Beau would win in 2020. Hard to imagine the Democratic party electorate itching to run someone from a political dynasty after Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush choked in 2016. If Joe Biden doesn't run, it's hard to see anyone but Bernie winning the nomination.

Granted we don't know what his governorship would be like, for all I know maybe he does endear himself to the country (or at least enough important pieces of the Democratic base)

I would disagree with the bolded here. The Democratic establishment clearly wouldn't have wanted a Sanders nomination in 2020, and it's clear that they would have had the inclination to coalesce around a single non-Bernie candidate.

That non-Bernie candidate - be it Klochubar, Buttigieg, Harris, whomever - may not have had the very specific benefits that Biden had, but the median Democratic voters would still have probably preferred them to Sanders.

I should note that I firmly disagree with the notion that "Biden was the only one who could have beaten Trump/beaten Sanders" because I don't think most successful candidates were the "only ones" who could win their respective races.

[dw93]

Trump was never getting reelected. Without COVID he would have faced a recession.

Even if a recession hit, I think it would've been like the 2001 recession and been mild enough to where the effects wouldn't be felt enough by key voters in order for Trump to lose.

[SWE]

I doubt Beau would win in 2020. Hard to imagine the Democratic party electorate itching to run someone from a political dynasty after Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush choked in 2016. If Joe Biden doesn't run, it's hard to see anyone but Bernie winning the nomination.

Granted we don't know what his governorship would be like, for all I know maybe he does endear himself to the country (or at least enough important pieces of the Democratic base)

I would disagree with the bolded here. The Democratic establishment clearly wouldn't have wanted a Sanders nomination in 2020, and it's clear that they would have had the inclination to coalesce around a single non-Bernie candidate.

That non-Bernie candidate - be it Klochubar, Buttigieg, Harris, whomever - may not have had the very specific benefits that Biden had, but the median Democratic voters would still have probably preferred them to Sanders.

I should note that I firmly disagree with the notion that "Biden was the only one who could have beaten Trump/beaten Sanders" because I don't think most successful candidates were the "only ones" who could win their respective races.

Most of Biden's coalition would have gone to Bernie. None of the other candidates you named would have been able to garner enough support to counteract that. Warren on paper could have put something together but we've only ever seen her make bad strategic choices and show historically awful political instincts so I doubt she'd have been able to pull off a come from behind victory

[Pres Mike]

Trump was never getting reelected. Without COVID he would have faced a recession.

Even if a recession hit, I think it would've been like the 2001 recession and been mild enough to where the effects wouldn't be felt enough by key voters in order for Trump to lose.

Yeah, the evidence for a non COVID recession in 2020 was weak. The logic was "we never had growth this long". Democrats wanted a recession to hurt Trump. I find this thinking to be disgusting. Families lose homes in recession. Businesses go bankrupt. Kids graduate college and can't find jobs.

[SnowLabrador]

No, it just delayed it by four years.

[Flyersfan232]

Beau living is the normal universe. Non-zero chance he'd have been the nominee in 2020 if he already had a term as Governor of Delaware under his belt. I've long felt like Joe Biden really ran in 2020 out of duty to his son, moreso than duty to his country.

beau is likely president is that universe right now instead of joe

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump was never getting reelected. Without COVID he would have faced a recession.

Given how close the election was in the EC, I think Trump absolutely have won against candidates like Warren and Butti. Sanders at least is a coin flip.