Scotland and Wales 2007 Forecast Thread

[Harry Hayfield]

With a week to go until polling, it's time to put your cards on the table. Please post your definitive forecasts (i.e once you've posted there is no going back) for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. To help, all existing parties in the devolved institutions are:

Wales: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Plaid, Ind
Scotland: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Plaid, Green, SSP, Solidarity, Others

My guesses are:

Wales: Con 15 (+3) Lab 24 (-5) Lib Dem 7 (+1) Plaid 12 (n/c) Ind 2 (+1)
Scotland: Con 18 (+1) Lab 36 (-14) Lib Dem 23 (+5) SNP 43 (+18) Green 2 (-5) Solidarity 1 (-1) Others 5 (-4)

[Verily]

I don't know much about Wales. I know a bit more about Scotland.

Labour: 24 (-6)
Conservative: 14 (+3)
Plaid: 13 (+1)
Lib Dem: 7 (+1)
Ind: 2 (+1, Law and Marek)

-----

SNP: 44 (+17)
Labour: 36 (-14)
Lib Dem: 22 (+5)
Conservative: 18 (nc)
Green: 6 (-1)
Solidarity: 1 (+1)
SSCUP: 1 (nc)
Ind: 2 (-2, MacDonald and Turner)
[SSP: 0 (-6)]

[afleitch]

There are only two outcomes in Scotland according to a Herald commentator that I have to say I agree with;

1. The SNP win
2. All the polls are wrong

Which one it is I couldn't say!

While I shall be mercilessly slaughtered here goes

SNP - 42
LAB - 38
CON - 20
LIB - 19
GRE - 6
SOL - 1
SSP - 1
IND - 2

[afleitch]

Any more takers? I'm beginning to think i've been over generous to Labour.

[minionofmidas]

I'm predicting that more votes will be cast in Scotland than in Wales.

[Verily]

I'm predicting that more votes will be cast in Scotland than in Wales.

I predict that you will correct.

[Peter]

Welsh constituencies:

I have taken a few risks in my assessments here. No tossups, so some seats (e.g. Aberconwy) are just guesses.

Scale: Safe - Likely - Lean

Aberavon: Safe Labour Hold
Aberconwy: Lean Tory Gain from notional Plaid, actual Labour
Alyn & Deeside: Likely Labour Hold
Arfon: Safe Plaid Hold
Blaenau Gwent: Lean Independent Hold (I know nothing about what has happened on the ground here)
Brecon & Radnorshire: Safe Lib Dem Hold
Bridgend: Likely Labour Hold
Caerphillly: Lean Labour Hold (Ron Davies[Ind] acts as possible spoiler)
Cardiff Central: Safe Lib Dem Hold
Cardiff North: Lean Tory Gain from Labour
Cardiff South & Penarth: Safe Labour Hold
Cardiff West: Safe Labour Hold
Carmathen East & Dinefwr: Safe Plaid Hold
Carmathen West & Pembrokeshire South: Lean Plaid Gain from Labour
Ceredigion: Likely Plaid Hold
Clwyd South: Likely Labour Hold
Clwyd West: Lean Labor Hold, because of this
Cynon Valley: Safe Labour Hold
Delyn: Lean Labour Hold
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Safe Plaid Hold
Gower: Safe Labour Hold
Islwyn: Safe Labour Hold
Llanelli: Lean Plaid Gain from Labour
Merthyr Tydfil: Safe Labour Hold
Monmouth: Safe Tory Hold
Montgomeryshire: Likely Lib Dem Hold
Neath: Safe Labour Hold
Newport East: Likely Labour Hold
Newport West: Lean Labour Hold
Ogmore: Safe Labour Hold
Pontypridd: Safe Labour Hold
Preseli Pembrokeshire: Likely Tory Gain from Labour
Rhonnda: Safe Labour Hold
Swansea East: Likely Labour Hold
Swansea West: Likely Labour Hold
Torfaen: Safe Labour Hold
Vale of Clwyd: Likely Labour Hold
Vale of Glamorgan: Lean Tory Gain from Labour
Wrexham: Likely John Marek Hold
Ynys Mon: Safe Plaid Hold

Labour - 23
Plaid - 7
Conservative - 5
Lib Dem - 3
Indies - 2

God knows where the topup seats end up.

[Harry Hayfield]

Based on your forecast, this is how the regional list divisors would go:

North Wales: Con / 2, Lab / 7, Lib Dem / 1, PC / 4
Mid and West Wales: Con / 2,  Lab / 1,  Lib Dem / 3,  PC / 6
South Wales Central: Con / 3, Lab / 6, Lib Dem / 2 PC / 1
South Wales West: Con / 1, Lab / 8, Lib Dem / 1, PC / 1
South Wales East: Con / 2, Lab / 7, Lib Dem / 1, PC / 1, Ind / 2