Milwaukee Scramble

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

For most of American political history, the major party conventions mattered more than anything other than perhaps the presidential elections themselves. Smoke-filled rooms of party bosses hammered out deals that fundamentally shaped the direction of the party and the country. Factions held together by threads jockeyed for dominance, sometimes overpowering their rivals and sometimes being forced into unhappy compromises.

Since 1984, however, the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations have been decided months prior to the convention via the nationwide primaries and caucuses. The conventions, once the decisive arena, now serves as little more than fanfare to rally the faithful ahead before the campaign begins in earnest. Pundits and prognosticators always float the possibility of all candidates failing to attain a majority of delegates before the convention, a topic floated in 2020, 2016, and 2008, but this has always been averted. But what if that streak breaks, and the convention suddenly matters for real? This timeline will explore one path to this situation, and probably the most likely path of them all--a scenario where Trump wins the primaries but is seemingly unable to serve as the Republican nominee--as well as the events leading up to and in the wake of a contested Republican National Convention in 2024.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

PROLOGUE

RFK JR. DROPS FROM DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES, TO RUN AS INDEPENDENT

STEVE SCALICE SUCCEEDS MCCARTHY AS NEXT SPEAKER OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ON 8TH BALLOT
The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it.

JUDGE CHUTKAN ISSUES GAG ORDER ON TRUMP IN JAN 6TH CASE
Effectively unable to comment on his false assertions that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, and surprisingly unwilling to defy the court order and pay the fines it would incur, the entire Trump campaign ground to a halt. Yet, for a while, it seemingly didn't matter. Trump's overwhelming lead in national primary polling continued, and despite his ongoing legal troubles, continued to poll even with or ahead of President Biden in most polls. Trump's supporters and others on the right excoriated the courts, but Trump himself was still conspicuously silent as his campaign figured out how to restart rallies while avoiding his single most animating topic.

LOUISIANA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION HEADED TO RUNOFF
In Louisiana, where incumbent John Bel Edwards is term-limited, Republican Jeff Landry and Democrat Shawn Wilson were the top two candidates in the jungle primary, and will face off in a runoff election on November 18th. Landry is strongly favored to flip the state red.

FORMER TEXAS CONGRESSMAN WILL HURD EXITS REPUBLICAN CONTEST

INCUMBENT GOVERNORS IN MISSISSIPPI, KENTUCKY FEND OFF CHALLENGERS
In deep-red Kentucky, incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear prevailed over Republican challenger Daniel Cameron by a 53%-47% margin of victory, while in Missisippi, embattled Republican incumbent Tate Reeves won by a similar margin against Elvis relative Brandon Presley.

DEMOCRAT MCCAFFERY TRIUMPHS IN KEY PA SUPREME COURT RACE

GOV. DOUG BURGUM WITHDRAWS FROM REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES AFTER FAILURE TO QUALIFY FOR THIRD DEBATE
The debate itself, once again, was focused on the man not in the room. Ramaswamy was the most vocal in his defense of Trump and in his attacks on the gag orders, while Christie excoriated the former president's conduce. Haley and Pence offered more tempered criticisms, while DeSantis and Scott deflected and focused on the supposed politicization of the Justice Department itself. Immediate post-debate polls suggested that audiences were divided between Ramaswamy, Haley, and DeSantis as to who won the debate, while voting preferences recorded only a small dip in Trump's overwhelming lead.

NEW JERSEY'S MENENDEZ DECLINES TO SEEK RE-ELECTION, REFUSES TO RESIGN

BIDEN CAMPAIGN CONSIDERING "RESET" AHEAD OF LOOMING SHUTDOWN
Despite President Biden's personal desire to focus his re-election bid on his domestic policy successes, his poor numbers on the economy and continued polling woes have left his team discussing a pivot to pushing Biden as the candidate of protecting abortion rights and democracy, with the latter seeking to loop in January 6th with the chaos in the Republican-controlled House, both issues where voters prefer Democrats. Behind the scenes, Vice President Harris is pushing for renewed action on student loan forgiveness, with pressure from borrowers and progressives mounting.

HEAD OF RUSSIAN OCCUPATION OF ZAPORIZHZHIA KILLED IN MELITOPOL BLAST

KENYAN-LED PEACEKEEPING FORCE IN HAITI SUSTAINS HEAVY LOSSES
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley suggested that the United States take leadership of the anti-gang operation, tying it to drug smuggling and illegal immigration while asserting without evidence that Russia and China were using Haiti as a place to expand their influence in the Americas.

REPUBLICAN JEFF LANDRY TRIUMPHS IN LOUISIANA

FORMER ARKANSAS GOVERNOR HUTCHINSON EXITS REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

IOWA GOV. KIM REYNOLDS REFUSES TO ENDORSE AHEAD OF IOWA CAUCUS

WEST VIRGINIA SEN. JOE MANCHIN ANNOUNCES PLANS TO RUN FOR RE-ELECTION, WILL NOT SEEK PRESIDENCY WITH NO LABELS
Defying his state's massive Republican shift, Manchin joins red state democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown in running for re-election. His most likely opponent, Governor Jim Justice, leads him by double-digits in most polls taken, though polls against more conservative congressman Alex Mooney, suggest a close race.

BERNIE SANDERS WILL SEEK RE-ELECTION TO U.S. SENATE IN VERMONT

FORMER PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER DIES AT HOME, AGED 99
President Biden, who served in the United States Senate for the entirety of Carter's presidency, is confirmed to provide a eulogy at his funeral.

NATIONAL ZOO'S PANDAS RETURN TO CHINA AFTER OVER 50 YEARS

LAI DECLARED PROVISIONAL WINNER OF TAIWANESE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, KO REFUSES TO CONCEDE AND DEMANDS RECOUNT

FINAL DMR/SELZER IOWA POLL: TRUMP 44, DESANTIS 22, HALEY 14

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

IOWA

Former President Donald J. Trump of Florida - 39% - 16 delegates
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida - 27% - 11 delegates
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley of South Carolina - 19% -  7 delegates
Former Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana - 4% - 2 delegates
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy of Ohio - 4% - 2 delegates
Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey - 3% - 1 delegate
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina - 3% - 1 delegate
Others - 1%

Political observers have a funny tendency to treat weaker-than-expected victories as defeats, and vice versa. While polling in the fifties nationwide, the state which Trump shifted from a blue-tinted swing state to a fairly red one was his first of many major disappointments in the year 2024. In a state where retail politics and local endorsements still mattered, Trump's lack of real caucus organization and his lack of support from local politicians mattered. But he was still Donald Trump, and that alone was enough to brute-force a victory in unfriendly territory. Publicly, Trump celebrated his victory as the first of many; privately, he was fuming.

Meanwhile, despite having collapsed from a serious contender to a joke at a national level, and despite having gone from the donors' favorite to near-broke, Ron DeSantis had, like Rick Santorum twelve years prior, put all his hopes on Iowa, where his social conservatism won the support of important kingmakers like Bob Vander Plaats, and where his ground game let him snap up rural counties in the west and north of the state. He lost, but it felt like a win, and for the first time in almost a year, Ron felt like things were finally looking up with New Hampshire ahead.

For Nikki Haley, who for the past couple of months had consistently polled in second nationwide, everything was going according to plan. The campaign had privately adopted a version of Marco Rubio's 3-2-1 strategy from 2016, wherein   she would place a respectable third in Iowa, a strong second in New Hampshire, and then win her home state outright. That was the only path to engage in a one-on-one fight with Trump.

Otherwise, the field continued to narrow. With his backers gone, Tim Scott had almost no choice but to end his campaign. Mike Pence was still chugging along, but he hardly knew what for. Christie put almost all his efforts into New Hampshire, and Ramaswamy too continued on as a stalking horse for Trump.