Swiss Elections and Politics CH(Federal election on 22 October 2023)

[Good Habit]

•   Participation was 46.6 % - that is a 1.5 % increase from 4 years ago (45.1%).
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•   What did cause the (mostly modest) shifts?
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SVP gains - that were generally moderate, but happened relatively uniform (the party gained never more than 1 extra seat per canton, so no landslide...), but mostly in suburban and rural areas, are often explained by their  "Anti-migration" stand by the main-stream media. And while it's true that the SVP did try to push the asylum issue, it's probably not the full picture. Most of the migration is from labor coming due to the freedom of movement agreement with the EU - and yes - the strong immigration does contribute to the housing shortage and the bottlenecks in infrastructure – but it’s not the only cause. To the problems of the health care system (Exploding rates of the mandatory health insurance, due to fast rising health care expenditures) – it doesn’t contribute at all (migrants mostly being younger adults, (including many health workers) paying full premiums, but usually below average usage of the health system… - so they should be a mitigating influence…
So, the other 2 main points the SVP was bringing forward, and that are not discussed really honestly in Main-Stream media – are their strong Anti-EU (Sovereignty) positions / no framework agreement, strict neutrality towards Russia-Ukraine (no sanctions) – no arms deliveries to Ukraine AND their opposition to renewal energy (no wind generators or large solar farms on mountain tops – they compromise the landscape and are unreliable – better use more fossil fuels and renew – probably build more – nuclear power. And their support for a more motorist friendly policy – less taxes on gasoline, more funds for highway construction, less restrictions for drivers.
These are also the positions that are not popular in the big urban centers, and that’s the reason the SVP didn’t gain there at all…

In the cities, the main winner was the SP – gaining 5 seats (one each in Geneva, Vaud (with Lausanne), Bern, Zürich and Luzern each… - usually at the cost of their Green alliance partners) – because economic issues – like Housing, health care cost, general cost of living – dominated more, and may be some social issues also played a role… OTOH, the SP lost 2 seats to the SVP in more rural areas (Fribourg, Graubünden), mostly due to weakness of their alliance partners, and 1 seat, because Basel could elect one seat less compared to the last election, and so the left alliance lost the seat, and within the alliance, the Greens narrowly preserved their seat, so SP lost their second seat. So – in total, SP only gained 2 seats…

FDP was generally stagnant, was even relegated to 4 place the first time in history…

Mitte did a bit better than expected, as, particularly in traditionally protestant – and urban – areas – the drop of the C in the party name (standing for Christian, but practically for Catholic) did help a bit.

As to the big losers – the Greens lost around half of their gains in voter shares from 4 years ago, but their losses in seats were only moderate (5) – of which 4 went to SP – so more a shift within the left camp. The main reason for the losses seems to be that people do care less about the environment – not because they don’t care, but because other issues have becoming more pressing – and thus, the Greens, still somewhat considered a monothematic party, lost. But with still 23 seats, they remain a “Big” party – but couldn’t surpass FDP or Mitte…

And the worst losses – particularly in seat shares, happened for the Green-Liberals (GLP) – loosing 6 of their 16 seats, down to 10. (So they definitely are not a “big” party anymore…). They lost relatively uniform voters shares, but not that much – some of their losses happened due to their weakened position in Alliances – GLP had earlier gained many seats due to  clever alliances, but this didn’t pay well for them this time.

Minor Parties: The far left lost both their seats in Geneva and Neuchatel – the Evangelist Christian Party EDU, that already held 1 seat in Bern, got a second one in Zürich due to their alliance with other far right parties, especially 2 list of COVID-measure opponents, that blew their chance by splitting in 2 different movements. And the local right wing populist parties Lega (TI) kept their seat, while their Geneva equivalent MCG gained even 2 seats und returned to parliament.

[Ragnaroni]

Greens got pummeled because most Swiss think they're just the PS with a green coat of paint.
My canton sent another SVP rep and reduced their Green-Liberal Greens by 2 seats. PS gained

[Double Carpet]

Many thanks for the update GH, really appreciate.

[Good Habit]

I did a calculation what a full proportional seat distribution would have changed (instead of the cantons doing the seat allocation locally...) - ignoring the shares of "others" - as I couldn't find sufficient detailed data if some of them would have a chance...

(Differences compared to the actual total)

SVP 60 (-2), SP 38 (-3), Mitte 30 (+1), FDP 30 (+2), GP 19 (-4) GLP 15 (+5) EVP 3 (+1) EDU 2, Lega 1, MCR 1 (-1), PdA 1 (+1)

So, the differences wouldn't be that big - with the exception of GLP - in earlier elections, they had won many seats due to clever alliances, but many of them didn't pay off this year.

So, the parties that actually benefited most from their solid alliance where SP and Greens - together they got 7 seats more nationally than their vote share would have suggested..,

[Jingizu]

So, the worst possible party did the best. Lovely.

[Good Habit]

Aehm... there have been some humble errors in the official figures... (ts, ts, ts..) - the BFS (Federal Office of Statistics) who did the calculation of national vote shares had to admit, that they wrongly calculated those shares, as they included the results of 3 tiny cantons with FPTP Elections several times (3-5 times, that is...) - and as the respective seats were won by SVP 2x and Mitte 1 x - and many parties didn't compete in those cantons, the vote share of SVP, Mitte, and somewhat less FDP, was to high - (so SVP didn't win that many votes actually) - and inversly, the results for SP, Greens and GLP were shown to low - so in fact GLP - who lost 6 seats, barely lost any votes...

The correct vote shares are: SVP 27.9, SP 18.3%, FDP 14.3, Mitte 14.1, GP 9.8, GLP 7.6

While this gets some attention (as the statement that FDP for the first time in history fell below the total of Mitte/CVP) now is not really correct... - and the gains of SVP were overstatet, those of SP understated, and the losses of Greens and GLP smaller or almoust inexistent - this doesn't influence the seat distribution at all (seats are always distributed in the cantons, and not on a national level).

(But in a fully proportional distribution on the national level, this differences would actually have moved some seats - recalculated the fully proportional distribution with the new numbers - (diffences to the earlier calculation) SVP 58 (-2) Mitte 29 (-1) EVP 4 (+1) GL 16 (+1) GP 20 (+1)

Differences of real numbers to (full proportional)

SVP 62 (+4) , SP 41 (+3) FDP 28 (-2), Mitte 29 (nc), GP 23 (+3), GLP 10 (-6), EVP 2 (-2), EDU 2 (nc), Lega 1, MCR 2 (+1) - PdA 0 (-1)

[Good Habit]

Ständerat (Senate) – until Sunday, October 22nd, only 31 of the 46 seats could be filled, as no one got elected for 15 more seats, so there should be second rounds in November.

The results as far: Mitte 10 Seats, FDP 9,  SP 5, SVP 4, GP 3
Per canton: LU 1x FDP / 1xMitte – UR: 1xFDP / 1xMitte – SZ: 1xFDP / 1xSVP – NW 1x FDP – OW 1xMitte – GL 1xGP / 1xFDP – ZG 1xMitte /1xFDP – BS 1xSP – BL 1xGP – AR 1xFDP – AI  1xMitte – GR 1xMitte/1xFDP – SG 1xSVP/1xMitte – TG 1xMitte/1xSVP – NE 1xSP/1xGP – JU 1xSP/1xMitte.

In 5 cantons, only one Ständerat got elected in the first round ZH – Daniel Jositsch (SP – incumbent), SO Pirmin Bischoff (Mitte – inc) ), SH Hannes Germann – (SVP – inc), AG Tierry Burkhart (FDP -inc – party president)and VD Jean-Yves Maillard (SP – long time former NR – Union Leader etc.etc…)

And in 5 cantons – BE, FR, TI, VS and GE – no one got elected in the first round:

So – actually – the formation of new alliances for the second round – game of withdrawal and support – is going on…

In Bern, the 2 top votegeters from round one, Werner Salzmann (SVP inc.) and Flavia Wasserfallen (SP) were declared elected after the withdrawal of the next to  candidates from GP and FDP, who had been far behind…

In Zürich, the second placed Gregor Rutz (SVP) and 4th placed Tiana Moser (GLP) will remain in the race, 3th placed Regine Sauter (FDP) withdrew in favor of Rutz because under the condition of the SVP/FDP election agreement the candidate with less votes should support the one with more… (this is not uncontroversial in FDP – as not everyone loves Rutz).. And the 5th places Daniel Leupi (GP) – who had been barely behind Moser, finally withdrew after SP signaled that they would prefer Moser to stop Rutz..,.

In Aargau, the 3, 5 and 6 placed women from SP, GP and GLP all withdrew in favor of 4th placed Mitte candidate Marianne Binder-Keller, to stop SVP candidate Benjamin Giezendanner.

Similar, in Solothurn, the center left candidates got behind SP candidate Franziska Roth – to stop SVP Christian Imark.

In Schaffhausen, independent incumbent Thomas Minder (who had been caucusing with SVP), and only got the 3 place, is challenged by SP candidate Simon Stocker, with an eventual spoiler by FDP remaining in the race…

In Wallis, the 2 incumbents from Mitte are likely to get reelected, although the 3 placed FDP candidate decided no to withdraw…

In Geneva, the SP Green alliance still hopes to defend the 2 seats of their incumbents Carlo Sommaruga (SP) and Lisa Mazzone (GP), they are challenged by the far right duo of Mauro Poggia (MCR) and Celine Amaudruz (SVP)

In Vaud, Pascal Broulis (2nd) (FDP) and Raphael Mahaim (4th)(GP) will remain in the race – while the 3th placed SVP candidate withdrew in favor of Broulis…

No information about decision in TI and FR – yet…


And just in other news, the two SP co-presidents – Cedric Wehrmuth and Matthea Meyer – announced that they will both not seek the nomination for the sucession of Alain Berset, the only Member of the Bundesrat (Government) not seeking re-election in December.

There are already six official candidates – 5 men and  1 women… - but lets save this for another time…

[Good Habit]

Follow UP - now, after all the second round for Ständerat seats are over, the composition of both houses of parliament is clear.. - of the 46 seats, the

Mitte got 15 (+2)
FDP         11 (-1)
SP             9 (nc)
SVP           6 (nc)
GP             3 (-2)
GLP            1 (+1)
MCR           1 (+1)

The results of the second rounds in Western (French-speaking) Switzerland on November 12th

Fribourg - in a all womens race - saw the incumbent Mitte and FDP women re-elected, the later barely before her SP challenger. Geneva saw a win of the local populist Mauro Poggia ahead of the incumbents of SP and Greens, were the experienced SP man C. Sommaruga narowly beat the young Green Liza Mazzone...In Valais, the incumbents from the Mitte both won easily against their remaining challenger from FDP. And in Vaud - were only one remaining seat had to be filled - the FDP heavyweight Pascal Broulis won against the Green Raphael Mahaim...

And in the final group of second rounds on November 19th, the SVP severly underperformed in all the cantons were only one seat had to be filled - although the FDP usually (nominally) supported the SVP candidates in those races, the support of the base was luckwarm...

So: In AG - Marianne Binder-Keller (Mitte) did beat Benjamin Giezendanner (SVP) with a difference of ca 3%. In SH, Simon Stocker (SP) did beat Thomas Minder (independent/incumbent - who had been caucusing with SVP) by more than 8% - in SO, Franziska Roth, SP - did beat Christian Inmark, SVP, by 9 %, while in ZH, Tiana Moser, GLP - won against Gregor Rutz, SVP, by almoust 13%.

Only in Ticino (TI), were both seats had to be filled in the second round, did SVP national party chair Marco Chiesa sucessfully defend his seat, while the second seat was narowly won by the candidate of Mitte ahead of those of FDP and Greens.


For the renewal of the Bundesrat (Government), which is sheduled to held by the Federal Assembly (joint session of NR and SR) on December 13th, 6 of the 7 incumbents will seek re-election, only Alain Berset (SP) - the longest serving (but still youngest) member will not run again..

The Greens - who claim that they would still have a better claim to one seat then FDP to 2 - nominated Gerhard Andrey (FR) - he is offically not running for the empty seat, but will challenge both incumbent FDP members (Ignacio Cassis and Karin Keller-Sutter). While the claim is mathematically posibel, it is still widely seen as a token candidature...

OTOH, the SP has the choice of 6 candidates, 5 men / 1 woman / 5 German speakers (or Rumantsch), one francophone...
In alphabetic order: Matthias Aebischer, NR, BE, Evi Allemann (member of canton government, BE), former NR, Beat Jans, (President of Canton Government, BS) former NR, Daniel Jositsch, SR, ZH (and already in discussion because he challenged the position of the party leadership in the last BR by-election, who had asked for an all women ticket...) Roger Nordmann NR/VD - leader of the parliamentary party group and last but not least Jon Pult NR/GR - at age 39 clearly the youngest of the candidates...

The SP's parliamentary Group will select 2 or 3 of those as official candidates (it has become usus to offer a 'selection' - so that the MP's will elect an 'official' candidate - earlier, there had been many elections of party members against their own party...)

[Good Habit]

Finally, the SP parliamentary group took her choice of candidates for the succesion of Alain Berset yesterday...

For the first place, they picked Beat Jans, 59, from Basel, president of the cantonal goverment and former NR

and for the second line on the ticket, they choosed Jon Pult, 39, Nationalrat from Grisons.

The only women in the race, Evi Allemann (who was already running a year ago for the replacement of S. Sommaruga, but didn't make it on the offical ticket) - failed again - she was close (or main challenger) in the first round - but this was probably part of tactial voting. (Some media claim that the Pult camp wanted Jans on the first line because they considered him the easiest to beat in the Federal Assembly...).

To fill the first space on the ticket, the Group took  10 rounds of voting...

Pult was choosen for the second line (from the remaining candidates) in the 8 round of voting - in the final round against Roger Nordman...

Daniel Jositsch, best elected Ständerat from Zurich, seems really have to upset most of his fellow SP MP's, because he got really humilated, coming last in all races, and eliminated first... 
 And Matthias Aebischer never really had a chance, but still get many more votes than Jositsch...


So, on december 13th, the federal assemply will elect the 7 members of the federal council, with the  6 incumbents seeking re-election heavily favoured to win.

The election will seat by seat, with the incumbents having their turn in order in anciennity.

So, Guy Parmelin (SVP) will go first (likely no challenge), Ignazio Cassis (FDP) - second (the GP has announced a challenge by Gerhard Andrey - not likely to succeed), Viola Amherd (Mitte) third (likely no challenge) Karin Keller-Sutter (FDP) fourth (GP may also challenge her...), Albert Rösti (SVP) fifth (likely NC) and Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (SP) sixt (rather NC) - and then, in the 7th round, the Assembly should choose beetween Jans und Pult for the remaining seat...

If there are no suprises in the earlier rounds, this should be it - if any surpises happend, mayhem might occur... - leading to further surprises...

[Good Habit]

On december 13th, The Federal Assembly (both houses of parliament in joint session - 246 members) re-elected the Federal Council, the Swiss goverment. At the start of the session, all governing parties stated that they will re-elect the 6 incumbents that seek re-election (although with some hesitation in the case of SP - who might have prefered a Green candidate over one FDP - and Mitte, who stated that while normally they always favor re-election of incumbents, the over-representation of FDP might be addressed at an eventual vacancy.

The incumbents were facing re-election in order of anciennity -
1. Guy Parmelin, SVP, got easily re-elected with 215 votes..
2. Ignazio Cassis, FDP, only got 167 votes, 59 went to the Green challenger Gerhard Andrey - a very modest result for Andrey..
3. Viola Amherd, Mitte, got re-elected with 201 votes
4. Karin Keller-Sutter, FDP, got releced with 176 votes, with a number of votes still going to Gerhard Andrey, GP, and, suprisingly(for reasons unknown..), 15 to Anna Giacometti, another FDP MP from Graubünden..
5. Albert Rösti, SVP, got 189 votes, and finally
6 Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, SP, 151, with some still going to GP Andrey, and some even to her last years inner party competitor and actual President of the Ständerat, Eva Herzog...


For the 7th seat - vacated by this years President Alain Berset, the SP officially nominated 2 candidates, Beat Jans, President of Basel-Stadt Cantonal Government and former NR, and Jon Pult, NR from Graubünden. While the other parties had all declared to vote for one of the 2 offical SP candidates, and not indicating a clear preference - some people - including the long term former SVP leader Christoph Blocher, had proposed to vote for someone else...

So, in the first round, while Jans got 89 votes and Pult only 49, it was not that surpising that Daniel Jositsch, who had been angling for a BR post longtime - got 63, and G. Andrey, GP, still 30...
In the 2nd round, Jans got 112, Jositsch 70, and Pult 54 - and in the 3rd, Jans got finally elected with 134 votes, with Jositsch stilll getting 68 and Pult 43..

The question, who acutally voted for Jositsch is still controversial, (most guess many SVP and some Mitte), particulary after FDP President Tierry Burkart stated that he knows that almoust none of those votes came from FDP (as there is a secret ballot, and a whip is illegal - there only remains "social control" as to know who voted for whome...)


In the final elections, Viola Amherd, Mitte, was elected as President for 2024 (as was her turn) - and a new Chancellor was elected, (in Switzerland, the Chancellor is the Chief of Staff of the Government). In the second round, the choice fell to Viktor Rossi, a GLP member, who did beat 2 candidates of SVP and a non-partisan candidate...

And yes - as a result of the BR Election, there is some bad blood between SP and Greens, as the Greens now complain about the Non-Support for their candidate - the readiness of SP to play power-games..


And then, the day after the election, there was a first surprise, as a small "Rochade" (change of Departement by incumbents) was announced... Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, who had been ad Justice and Police for just one year (dealing with Migration among other things) - switches over to "interior" - but in Switzerland the "interior" departement is a big tent departement including Social Security, Health Care, Culture, Gender-Equality, Statistics, asf..., while hear newely elected party colleague Beat Jans takes over Justice and Police

This change is often commented in todays media - and particulary by SVP members - as flight from responsabilty in the Asylum-question, OTOH, the question remains, why no-one from the political right wanted to take over this responsabiltiy... It is clearly easier to blame others (the left) for not finding solutions than to try themselves...