Swiss Elections and Politics CH(Federal election on 22 October 2023)

[Good Habit]

As the date of the Election is barely 3 weeks out, and nobody has started a thread until now -  here we go...

I will try to add a few facts and informations soon...

[Good Habit]

At this years federal election, all 200 seats in National Council and most of the 46 seats in the Ständerat (States Council) will be up for Election. After the Election, (in early December) the new parliament (both houses of parliament in joint session - 246 members - called "Federal assembly")will have to renew the mandates of the members of the Federal Council (the Swiss government) – 6 of the 7 incumbents are looking for re-election – only Alain Berset, the Federal President for this year (2023) – with 12 years in office – but at age 51 still the youngest member of the government – will not run again..

The 200 seats of the “Nationalrat” – national council – are elected with proportional representation, but not on a national level, but separately in each canton. The cantons serve as election districts – as they have vastly  different population numbers, the number of seats elected in each canton vary widely. (The seats, like in the US-house of Representations – are distributed to the cantons before the election, so that they elect a fixed number of members each.)  Six cantons (UR,NW,OW,GL,AR,AI) only elect one seat, so the method used there is FPTP. The others have between 2 (SH,JU) and 36 (ZH) seats.
This results in extremely different thresholds a party / coalition needs to clear to get a mandate – while in cantons with 2 seats, >33 % are needed to receive a seat for certain, in Zürich >2.7 % will be enough… As a result of this, the number of parties running in each canton, and the coalitions they form, vary widely.

In the Ständerat (Senate), each canton only elects 2 members – (six so called “half cantons” – who have been split for old historical reasons, only elect 1 (one) – these are NW/OW/AI/AR/BS/BL..  Elections of the Ständerat are according to different local laws, few use proportional representation as well, but most have majority elections with the entire canton at large as one district, but with different rules to what counts as a “majority” – and who would qualify for an eventual second round…. And some (very few) cantons actually have different terms, so that their Ständerat has already been elected…

Voting is actually already going on – as the vast majority of votes are now mail ballots (Voters receive their voter card and all the ballots about 4 weeks earlier, mail in votes have to be posted a few days before the election day – although some physical voting boots still exist that will be open on the 22 for a few hours before noon) – there are very few people actually still voting in person…

[Good Habit]

The last general election, held in October 2019, brought a large spike of votes / seats to parties using the “Green” label – the actual greens and the green-liberals, and a major setback for the SVP (traditional farmer party gone right wing populist) and its former (moderate) break off BDP.

The results in the National Council were:
SVP 53 (-12) / SP 39 (-4) / FDP 29 (-4) / Greens 28 (+17) / CVP 25 (-2) / GLP 16 (+9) / BDP 3 (-4) /  EVP 3 + 1) / PdA / Solidarities (far left) 2 (+1) EDU 1 (+1) / Lega dei Ticinesi 1 (-1).

Such a large shift in seat distribution is quite unusual and was seen as a landslide towards a green policy. But – as usual – we got little actual change, and the established parties were opposed to any change in the composition of the government, with the argument that parties only deserve a stronger representation in the government if they can repeat those results over a longer period of time. (Several election cicles..)

And with 84 (42 %) women (dominating in the left wing parties) the female share of MP’s reached an all-time high.

As for the Ständerat, the shift had been less strong, and the gains of the Greens had occurred mostly at the expense of the SP. Stronges party here was still CVP with 13 seats (nc) / FDP 12 (-1) / SP 9 (-3) /  SVP 6 (+1) / Greens 5 (+4) and 1(nc)  independent (caucusing with SVP).
During the term, there have been a few by-elections, resulting in at least on gain of SVP at the cost of SP.

The biggest institutional change in the party landscape has been the formal merger of CVP with BDP and their rebranding as “Mitte” (Center), therefore dropping the “Christian” – traditionally meaning Catholic – label – in the hope to appeal more to secular and non-catholic voters.

[Good Habit]

The expectations, according to polls and the local / cantonal elections in recent years – are not for any landslide changes. Predictions see a slight recovery of SVP and probably SP, a fight for 3 place between FDP and Mitte, some losses for the Greens, and may be – small gains for GLP. There doesn't seem to be a minor party that will have a breakthrough – although some COVID-deniers try to present themselves as the new force…

Without a big shift in voter shares, gains and losses are more likely to happen as a result of the peculiarities of the electoral system, and are therefore often difficult to predict.

While in larger cantons, that elect 12 or more members to the NR, shifts in voter shares would be the most important factor for gains and losses, in smaller cantons – electing 3 to 9 members, changes in party coalitions or marginal vote shifts between or within a coalition will often be more important.

The elections happens with proportional representation, using D’Hondt formula for seat allocation.

But parties can form coalitions and sub-coalitions. And those coalitions vary from canton to canton – sometimes minor parties form quit ideologically incoherent alliances – ‘we are all the small but not irrelevant parties that can’t get a seat on their own – so lets pool our votes, so that the luckiest / best campaigning among us will get a seat – and not all seats go to the big established parties.’ (In the last election cycles, especially the GLP profited from quite heterogenous coalitions across ideological borders – they did the math were they would most likely benefit from a coalition.

So, every voter receives ballot papers of all the parties / lists that are registered in his cantons. They can vote for as many members as there are seats in their cantons – so the number of votes vary from 1 to 36. If your canton elects several MP’s, you can select a party list and return it unchanged, or you can strike candidates (so giving no votes to that candidate) – with the empty line still counting as a list vote – or you can double the name of a particular candidate, thus giving it 2 votes – at the cost of one you eliminated. Thus, voters actually influence the ranking on the party list.

And you can also give some votes to candidates on other party lists, thus splitting your vote between several parties, (you have to strike candidates on your selected party list and replace them by writing in the candidate number and name of the candidate that you want to elect in it’s place.
But seats are attributed to party lists – all the votes for candidates on one list are added together –  (list total) – all the lists on the same sub-coalition are added together (sub-coalition total) – all the list of the coalition are added together (coalition total). So seats are first allocated to the coalitions, then to sub-coalitions, then to lists, and just as a last step to the candidates that received the highest number of votes on that list. As well known personalities get a high number of personal votes, this often shifts the seat distribution, resulting in the election of other people on the same list.

OTOH, to collect more votes, party have started to present a high number of subsidiary list – youth wing having some tradition, but this year we see a real plethora of additional lists – Youth, Seniors, LGBTQ+, Migrants, Business, Nursing.. etc. – all in the hope of reaping some additional votes that will finally benefit the parties main list, as no-one one those “special” lists stands a chance of getting elected…

[Good Habit]

Campaign.

The actual campaign is quite shallow, as most people don’t expect big changes, and there are no plausible coalitions to get solutions to the real pressing issues passed.

Issues during the legislature have been: 1) COVID – 2)Pensions – 3) Ukraine 4) Energy 5) Skilled Labor shortage, 6) Density Stress 7) affordable Housing Inflation, 9) Banking Crisis 10) Health Care Cost 11) Migration 12) Climate Change, 13 Europe, asf…

While the Covid crisis dominated the earlier part of the period, with the SVP sometimes opposing measures, but emergency laws post facto confirmed 3 times in a row by referendum, the debate has mostly died down now – so no established party is campaigning on the issue – some of the loudest opponents to Covid Measures formed their own organizations, that run separately. In some cantons, they formed electoral coalitions with the SVP, in others only among each other (there are several splintered groups) or with other far right / evangelic Christian groups. There are some guesses that 1 or 2 of them might actually gain a seat, including the most prominent spokesman, Nicolas Rimoldi.

A controversial issue has been the raise of the official pension age for women – from 64 – to 65 (as for men). It has been heavily opposed by the left and feminist organizations, with the argument that women still have (mostly) lower wages and often lower pensions – but was finally approved by referendum – the change will be implemented gradually over the next few years. Proposals – mostly from FDP – to raise the pension age further – to 67 – or linked with live expectancy – are not very popular- and the reform of the mandatory private pension sector is going nowhere. (There is a dual pension system – a national basic system – and an additional system, where people above an absolute minimum wage (low paying part time jobs) have to join a private pension fund of their employer – with savings on personal accounts transferable when you change employment.)

Ukraine: The war did lead to some shifts in party positions, especially SP went from a pacifistic to a more pro-military / anti – Russian position. The imposition of sanctions against Russia analogue to those of the EU where widely accepted, but sometimes not out of conviction, but as bending to foreign pressure. Particularly the SVP has been somewhat vocal in that respect  - sanctions violate neutrality – and pressure by EU / US to impose them actually violate our sovereignty. (Honestly, they mostly care about the loss of business opportunities with oligarchs).
But there is not that much outright Putinist propaganda – of the SVP MP’s, Roger Köppel – Editor of Weltwoche - was the most outspoken pro-Russian voice – but he is not seeking re-election.
And of course, there are ca. 90 k Ukrainians now living here – but they are not very well visible – some claim that they contribute to the housing crisis, others find that they are unduly privileged against other refugee groups, like Afghans or Syrians.

Energy: The Ukraine war did lead to a major price shock in fossil energy, and to some questions about supply security. But initiatives to produce more sustainable energy locally often fail due to widespread NIMBY’sm – there are barely any Wind-Generators – and projects are heavily opposed by landscape protection groups – Solar power is used on rooftops, but larger projects in the high alps fail due to the same opposition – legislation in Wallis to shortcut permission procedures were killed in a referendum initiated by the Greens – (leaving the impression that they care more about intact nature than about clean energy…) The actual energy minister Rösti (SVP) – a long standing Oil-Lobbyist – is clearly pushing for continued use of fossil fuels – and – eventually – a renewal of nuclear energy…

With the recovery after Covid, a new issue seemed to emerge strong – the shortage of skilled labor, about which most businesses started to complain. While this did lead to pay rises in some sectors, and more labor immigration, the main issue – that there is to little investment in education and training – was not addressed at all. E.g. Switzerland still has strong restrictions on the number of Medical doctors that can be trained in our universities, (training a doctor is “to expensive”) – so nearly 40% of the doctors – and a high percentage of nurses) are now immigrants – and this at a time, when many local doctors from the “boomer” generation are looking for retirement – so there is a shortage of GP.s Similar problems in other sectors, e.g. teachers…

Another – related – issue is the frequent talk about density stress. The population has been strongly increasing in recent years due to immigration (the birthrate is fairly below replacement, although not as low as in some parts of eastern and southern Europe.) It has come up as a campaign issue in the form of “opposition to the 10 million Switzerland” – mostly by SVP – but also some on the left (mostly concerned about housing and environment) – don’t look positively forward to it.
(The official population – depending on the method of calculation – has passed the 9 million mark sometimes in Q2 2023 – although the biggest jump was the result of Ukrainians that are here since more than 1 year now counted as part of the “residential population”.) Concerns are that more people mean higher demand for infrastructure, and particularly for housing – and less space in recreation areas.  OTOH, the claims of SVP, that the problem mainly results from migrants from the global south, is obviously untrue, because >50 % of the immigrants are EU-citizens coming as labor migrants due to the agreement about freedom of movement with the EU, and the second largest group by far are family reunions. So – asylum seekers are small minority of the problem – while the right tries to play the anti-immigration card, it’s their business interests that mostly generates immigration.

Housing has become a major issue, particularly in the larger cities. The high quota of immigration of skilled labor did lead to a very strong demand, and resulted in heavy rises in prices of both individually owned homes as well as in rents. While there are some caps to rent increases, investors often tend to demolish older rental buildings and build larger, newer, and vastly more expensive ones in their place. So, many poorer people are displaced trough gentrification.
As a solution – the SVP proposes less immigration – although many of their leaders are actively promoting labor migration – they just oppose poorer migrants and blame them fact free – while the left demands more public housing – lower rents – and protection against evictions. And the FDP of course demands higher rents, allowing more profits for real estate companies, with the claim that this will solve the problem by generating more investment.

With the Ukraine war and rising energy prices, inflation has become an issue again. The central Bank (SNB) has raised interest rates from – 0.75 % to + 1.75 ) – thus ending a long period of negative interest rates. This did suppress some of the inflation pressure (officially, in September, it was only 1.7 % - ) but many people feel it much higher (Supermarkets raised prices of many basic products by  higher margins…) – but some imported products didn’t rise that much, as the SwissFranc (CHF) has quite somewhat appreciated against both the US$ and the €uro. But pay raises have mostly been modest, and a strong series of second round effects is expected to hit soon (some electricity suppliers only adapt prices once a year – so a second round of energy inflation is due – and rents are linked to mortgage rates – and the threshold was only passed recently – so many people will soon see a rent hike. And then, the premium for the mandatory health insurance is NOT part of the CPI – and this rates have been strongly raising for many years.

A strong issue this spring was of course the bail-out (not to be called that) of Credit Suisse, respectively it’s forced merger with UBS. The SNB issued guarantees for more than CHF 200 Billion to avoid a collapse, and the government gave additional guarantees. The deal was pushed trough by the head of the Financial Department, Karin Keller-Sutter (FDP). The fact that the “To big to fail” legislation has actually failed at the first test, and the government was taking large liabilities while the same people were claiming about the necessity to curtail spending seemed to be water on the mill of the left, that the FDP is only caring about banks, and not about ordinary people. The SVP saw a violation of Switzerlands sovereignty again (pressure from the US and the UK for a deal) – and asked that after the merger, the domestic part of CS should be split off to allow for continued competition. This, however, is not what the UBS management wanted, and after they stated that they don’t need the federal guarantees anymore, the opposition has gone silent..  (The main risk in the deal – aside from the excessive size of the new UBS – is the governments order to write down some convertible bonds – those bonds did have a clause that in case a government intervention is necessary, they would become worthless, but the bondholders are not happy, claiming that a forced merger is not the condition mentioned in the contract, and therefore have started a class action in the US – not against UBS, but against the Swiss Government. (This could, of course, have been avoided if the government would have gone for a full nationalization of CS – but this was an option KKS seemingly never considered…

So, the most acute issue in last few weeks was continued increase in Health-Care costs, leading to the second heavy rise in the premiums for the mandatory health insurance in two years. (On average, premiums did rise by almost 7% last year, and will rise by more than 8.6 % to January 1. (Tariffs vary according to region, co-payments and insurance company, but they have to be approved by the ministry of health every year) – The rate is per capita, irrespective of income – so poorer people are hurt more. As a counter-measure, poor people have the right to claim subsidies for their premium, but they have to be approved by the respective cantons, (that have to pay at least half of the subsidy) – and many cantons have restricted their payments below the constitutionally required minimum. Measures to curb costs usually fail in parliament, because the lobbies of big Pharma prevent price controls (many medicaments are significantly more expensive in Switzerland than in the EU) – there are to many small hospitals (but local governments oppose merger of hospitals because this is not a vote getter – and there are to many expensive specialist that are consulted without co-ordination. So proposals often only include – a cap on premiums to max 10 % of income (SP) – or a unified health insurer – (dito) – possibly with income based premiums. Less helpful would be a cap on the salaries of CEO’s of insurance companies (only a tiny section of the total cost). And the FDP proposes a “Health insurance light” – not clear what this should be, clearly Class medicine – but if those with the “light” insurance would get care in emergencies (at government cost?) – unclear. The same with the proposal of the SVP’s Natalie Rickly – (health secretary for Canton Zürich) to abolish the mandate – again – what happens in emergencies? and to concentrate subsidies for premiums only for the “really poor” – thus screwing many middle class families.

A long debated issue is, of course, migration – while labor migration from the EU is heavily encourage by the business community – and many skilled labor can even come from Third Countries – the same people stile the poorer migrants from the global south as big dangers. While the number has recently be rising again. Switzerland has long been benefitting from the Dublin agreement – basically – without an external border (external to the EU, that is) there shouldn’t be any first arrivals. This has, however, never been true – and with the actual position of Italy to not take people back that have gone further on, this has become a stronger issue again. And so, parliament does just a bit politics for the gallery – they denied the construction of temporary shelter for migrants, although the numbers are rising., OTOH, the government has also stated, that only about 3 % of all migrants actually claim asylum in Switzerland, the overwhelming majority are just passing through… (and therefore, we wont halt them, because we can’t send them further back either…) So the Dublin process has become an absolute joke.

And then there is Europe – an issue about which no one really wants to talk – the proposed framework agreement about our relationship with the EU is on hold, because no one dares to discuss risks and benefits. The left is afraid that the EU will force worse conditions for workers (resulting in downward pressure for wages), and the SVP that they would force better conditions for unemployed EU citizens. So silence – particularly in an election year – seems to most the least damaging course of in-action).

[CityofSinners]

I'm always happy to read your previews of swiss elections and ballot issues.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Campaign.

Thank you for this excellent summary!

May I ask how you intend to vote?

[Good Habit]

BTW - there is a tool to check your preferences

https://www.smartvote.ch/

The result goes, however, by individual candidate, and not party - as party discipline is poor (there is generally NO WHIP) - MP's often vote differently from the recommendation of their party / fraction leadership. So, this does make some sense - But if you only agree with the candidates of the Youth wing / or other minority lists of a party, it seems doubtful that this party should be your first choice, because the minority lists never gain seats, they are just vote collectors for the main list. And with the very different sizes of constituencies (cantons) - there are several where your choice is really slim...

[Good Habit]

Here the newest poll from SRF (the main public broadcaster) - shows a trend towards stronger SVP, heavy losses for the Greens, and may be some changes for SP and Mitte and some losses for FDP and GLP

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-HHVIhk3-90BrFBECRukbas6MqhDQDMQ/view?pli=1

this changes are not to significant, as they don't reflect local conditions (cantons as election districts - with local party alliances)  - but might be indicative of some trends...

[Estrella]

Tried the quiz. As a foreigner who speaks decent German but very little French, I guess if I somehow ended up in Switzerland it'd be in one of the big, urban, German-speaking cantons.

Zürich
Top candidates: Janik Steiner (JGLP), Lois Nyx Schulz (JUSO), Hans-Jakob Mosimann (SP)
Top 36 by party: SP 19, Grüne 5, GLP 4, JUSO 2, JGrüne 2, JGLP 1, AL 1, JMitte 1, JEVP 1
Ständerat: Daniel Leupi (Grüne), Peter Vetsch (independent)

Bern
Top candidiates: Lorenz Jordi (JGrüne), Linus Rothacher (JUSO), Stefan Jordi (SP)
Top 24 by party: SP 10, JGrüne 5, JUSO 3, GLP 3, JGLP 2, Grüne 1
Ständerat: Flavia Wasserfallen (SP), Bernhard Pulver (Grüne)

Basel Stadt
Top 4: Lukas Bollack (GLP), Sarah Wyss (SP), Leonard Burckhardt (SP), Wanja Kaufmann (GLP)
Ständerat: Eva Hertzog (SP)

#leftliberalelitist but a much better match for SP than I expected

[S019]

Top three lists:

Zurich:
Die Mitte: 52.7%
GLP: 50.3%
FDP: 49.1%

Geneva:
PVL: 50.5%
Centre: 50.4%
PLR: 49.9%

Zug:
GLP: 54.1%
Die Mitte: 48.4%
FDP: 46.2%

[Good Habit]

Top three lists:

Zurich:
Die Mitte: 52.7%
GLP: 50.3%
FDP: 49.1%

Geneva:
PVL: 50.5%
Centre: 50.4%
PLR: 49.9%

Zug:
GLP: 54.1%
Die Mitte: 48.4%
FDP: 46.2%

a bit surprising... I mean - you only got +/- 50 % for centrist / center right parties - but those are still the top 3 choices... - would have expected that, if you don't agree with them more often, you should either tilt heavily to the right OR the left, and then have someone else in your top ranks...

Wouldn't ever look at a party I can't agree at least > 70% - and individual Ständerat (Senate) candidates with > 66 %..

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Results can be found here:

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/a7CjJ/127/

Swiss elections have to be the most boring in the world (except for certain referendums).

Still, if elections are boring, it means the country is in good shape.

[Good Habit]

Still, if elections are boring, it means the country is in good shape.

Well, I wouldn't agree on that - it's may be a bit less bad than in many other countries - most people just don't believe that the parties will really solve any problems - so they stopped caring / gave up hope of improvement.

[Good Habit]

And yes - polling stations are closed since noon (4:30 hours ago) - and counting is ongoing.

There are no exit polls, as this wouldn't be representative, as the overwhelming majority of voters is voting by mail ballot. And then, counting is local - so as their is no consolidation on a national level, even basic information as voter turnout will only be calculated when all votes (more or less) are in...

[Good Habit]

There are final results - already for some hours - for the smaller cantons, particularly those with only 1 seat - voting with FPTP.

So, AI / AR / OW / UR confirmed their incumbent NR (Mitte/SVP/SVP/Mitte) - while in NW and GL, where the incumbents didn't seek re-election, they switched their seats (NW Mitte gain from SVP / GL SVP gain from (former) BDP.).

Already final are the results from SO - where the seat distribution (6 seats) remained the same (2 SVP, 1 FDP, 1 SP, 1 Mitte, 1 Greens) - although the Greens lost quite a bit, and the Mitte gained - but not enough to move a seat..,.

[Keep Calm and ...]

There is a first national projection (1. nationale Hochrechnung) gfsbern/SRF

https://twitter.com/srfnews/status/1716105387781304453
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1716099681615315451

[Good Habit]

Other final results include Zug (3 seats) - where the seat distribution remains unchanged (1 Mitte / 1 SVP / 1 Green) - and Aargau (16 seats) - here only SVP wins one seat at the expense of EVP - so the new distribution is  SVP 7 (+1), SP 3 (nc), FDP 2 (nc), Mitte 2 (nc), Green and GLP 1 each (nc) - EVP 0 (-1). Their were relatively strong gains for SVP and heavy losses for the Greens...

And - yep - the national trend would be gains for SVP and losses for Greens...

[Good Habit]

surprisingly, there are some differences in the projection that SRF published on their website and on X..?

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/wahlen-2023

SVP       29 % (+3.4)
SP         17. 2 % (+0.4)
Mitte     14.7 % (+0.9)
FDP      14.6 % (-0.5)
Greens    9.1 % (-4.1)
GLP        7.1 % (-0.7)
EVP        2 %  (-0.1)
EDU      1.3 % (+0.3)
PdA/Sol.  0.8 % (-0.2)
Lega       0.5 % (-0.3)
others     3.7 % (+ 0.9)

[Keep Calm and ...]

Second national projection

https://twitter.com/srfnews/status/1716124717772410891

First national seat projection

https://twitter.com/Andy__Mllr/status/1716122360875565320

[Good Habit]

Some more cantonal results:

Luzern: 9 seats / SP wins one seat from GLP (Mitte 3, SVP 2, SP 2 (+1) FDP 1, GP 1, GLP 0 (-1)

Schwyz: 4 seats / no change (SVP 2, FDP 1, Mitte 1)

Fribourg: 7 seats / SVP wins one seat from SP (SVP 2 (+1), Mitte 2, SP 1 (-1), FDP 1, GP 1

Basel-Land: 7 seats /no change (SVP 2, SP 2, FDP 1, Mitte 1, GP 1)

Schaffhausen: 2 seats / no change (1 SVP, 1 SP)

Graubünden: 5 seats / SVP wins one seat from SP (SVP 2 (+1), SP 1(-1),Mitte 1, FDP 1

St. Gallen: 12 seats / SVP wins one seat from GLP (SVP 5 (+1), SP 2, Mitte 2, FDP 2, GP 1, GLP 0 -1)

Thurgau: 6 seats / FDP wins one seat from Greens (SVP 3, SP 1, Mitte 1, FDP 1 (+1), GP 0 (-1)

Ticino: 8 seats / SVP wins one seat from Mitte (SVP 2 (+1), FDP 2, SP 1, GP 1, Mitte 1 (-1), Lega 1

Vaud: 19 seats /SVP, SP and Mitte eachwin one seat  - FDP, GP and GLP loose one - so:(SP 6 (+1), FDP 4 (-1), SVP 4 (+1) GP 3 (-1) GLP 1 (-1) Mitte 1 (+1)

Neuchatel: 4 seats / SVP wins one seat from PdA (communists). SP, FDP, GP and SVP  on seat each


Btw - the projected 3 seats for "others" seem to be 2 for MCG - a local populist party in Geneva - and (seemingly) "Aufrecht" (Upright) - one of the Covid-denier lists, although surprisingly not to the most prominent - but controversial - figure (Mass-Volls Nicolas Rimoldi)

and - I just noticed - I didn't mention the results of Aaragu; 16 seats / SVP wins one from EVP (SVP 7 (+1), SP 3, FDP 2, Mitte 2, GP 1, GLP 1, EVP 0 (-1)

[Good Habit]

And some more cantonal results (now - all cantons - with the exception of Bern have finished counting.)

Jura: 2 seats - SVP wins one seat from Mitte - (SP 1, SVP 1 (+1), Mitte 0 (-1)

Valais/Wallis: 8 seats - No changes (Mitte 3, SVP 2, FDP 1, SP 1, GP 1)

Geneve: 12 seats - SP wins one seat from Greens, GLP and Solidarites (Far-Left) loose their seats to MCG (Mouvement of Geneva Citizens - Local Right Wing Populist parties) - so the seat distribution is:
SP 3 (+1) FDP 2, MCG 2 (+2) GP 2 -(1) SVP 2, Mitte 1

Basel-Stadt 4 seats (-1) The seat is lost by SP / SP 1 (-1), GP 1, GLP 1 and LPS 1 (a local FDP sister party...)

Zürich, 36 seats (+1): SP wins one seat from GP, Mitte + 2 from GLP, and the additional seat goes to EDU - Evangelicalist Party that dominated the Alliance with Covid Deniers because they presented 2 competing lists.....
So - seat distribution is: SVP 10, SP 8 (+1) FDP 5, GLP 4 (-2), GP 4 (-1) Mitte 3 (+2) EVP 1, EDU 1 (+1)

without the results from Bern - with 24 seats the 2nd largest canton - SVP wins 8, SP 1, Mitte + 1, MCG + 2, EDU + 1, while the (net) losses go GLP (-6), the Greens (-4), EVP (-1) and the far left parties that lose all their seats(-2).

[Keep Calm and ...]

Final results

https://twitter.com/srfnews/status/1716195314091127287

[Good Habit]

With the results from Bern finally coming in, the seat distribution is now final...
Bern: 24 seats - SVP and SP win one seat each at the expense of Greens and FDP.
SVP 8 (+1), SP 5 (+1) , GP 3(-1), GLP 3, Mitte 2, FDP 1(-1), EVP 1, EDU 1...

(So, the final seat distribution is correct according to the X-quote in the post above... (but as often, the text on X is quite sloppy... (e.g. SVP and SP DID each win a seat in Bern - but not in Zürich, were SVP couldn't gain... - contrary to the text...).

And, BTW, from the 46 seats in the Ständerat (Senate) only 31 have already been filled - there hasn't been any large shifts, so it would be to early for a clear trend... (There will be second rounds in many cantons in november - those aren't exactly "run-offs" - as the number of candidates qualified varies widely, and there are likely quite a few tactical withrawals....

[Double Carpet]

Many thanks Good Habit for all the updates! Much appreciated.

In a nutshell, what explains the results? - ie SVP gains, Green (inc Green Libs) losses, others largely unchanged?