PA Supreme Court (Commonwealth Foundation): McCaffery +6

[wbrocks67]

Rare we get a poll for this -

Democrat Daniel McCaffery has a 42-36 lead over Republican Carolyn Carluccio for the open Pennsylvania high court seat.

https://www.politicspa.com/poll-pennsylvanians-feeling-better-about-biden-shapiro-direction-of-state/125869/

[Duke of York]

I don't like to make predictions anymore but Democrats tend to do well in statewide elections when Philadelphia has its elections.

[wbrocks67]

These #s are insane for an off year election, but also surprising that Dems are actually leading in likelihood to vote:

How likely are you to vote in the 2023 PA municipal elections?
Very likely: Dems (73%), GOP (69%)
Overall likely: Dems (92%), GOP (89%)

[wbrocks67]

Dems: McCaffery 81%, Carluccio 4%, Unsure 16%
Reps: Carluccio 73%, McCaffery 7%, Unsure 20%
Independents: McCaffery 35%, Carluccio 28%, Unsure 37%

McCaffery also getting a bit more GOP support than other way around. Also interesting that he leads Indies by 8, despite this being a bit more of a GOP-leaning group (they lean GOP in the prez vote)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Dems: McCaffery 81%, Carluccio 4%, Unsure 16%
Reps: Carluccio 73%, McCaffery 7%, Unsure 20%
Independents: McCaffery 35%, Carluccio 28%, Unsure 37%

McCaffery also getting a bit more GOP support than other way around. Also interesting that he leads Indies by 8, despite this being a bit more of a GOP-leaning group (they lean GOP in the prez vote)

Might be an extension of the Dobbs effect - judiciary elections slowly becoming a de facto referendum on abortion restrictions.

[SnowLabrador]

The Democratic brand is fine, it's just Biden's brand that isn't doing well. There could be a universe in which Democrats hold the Senate, yet Biden loses. I'm not saying it's likely, just that it's a little more possible than I thought.

[Senator Incitatus]

He’s doing really well on my fantasy team too.

[Pericles]

The Democratic brand is fine, it's just Biden's brand that isn't doing well. There could be a universe in which Democrats hold the Senate, yet Biden loses. I'm not saying it's likely, just that it's a little more possible than I thought.

Nonsense. Politics is so presidentialised, if the President is losing then so is his party.

[Person Man]

This was accurate.