1976 if George Wallace wasn't shot and was the Democratic nominee

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

He chooses a moderate northern Democrat as his running mate.

Discuss with maps.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Ford would probably win the black vote for one thing or at the very least win a significant minority of it. So that should make for interesting effects.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Gerald Ford (R-MI) / Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) ✓
Governor George Wallace (D-AL) / Fmr. Senator Harold Hughes (D-IA)
Fmr. Senator Eugene McCarthy (I-MN) / Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm (I-NY)

The Not Republican candidates do a little better than they would have because of Watergate, but also help Ford by stealing the headlines away from Nixon, stagflation, and the Fall of Saigon drama. Interestingly and maybe more appropriately, it's Wallace and not Carter who first uses the religious right in his electoral coalition here.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Wallace getting shot actually helped him bigly in the '72 primaries. I don't think he'd have entered the '76 campaign as strong if he didn't get shot and positioned to win in Michigan and Maryland like he was in real life.

[TDAS04]

Wallace probably would have carried Massachusetts and Rhode Island, at least in two-way race. Carter wasn't that much of a better fit for New England.

[Fuzzy Bear]

There would have been a third party presenting itself as the real Democratic Party that would have possibly thrown the race into the House.

[Real Texan Politics]

Would he have still moderated his racial views though? That's what I think the election and maps would depend on.

[Podgy the Bear]

Of course, several factors have to be considered about 1976.  In today's world, George Wallace is seen as a right wing racist.   But in the reality of the days of 1976, he was perceived as a moderate-conservative---not significantly different from Jimmy Carter or Scoop Jackson.  Wallace would not have received the nomination without tremendous resistance from the left.   In this scenario, we are assuming that for Wallace to get the nomination, he would have consolidated the Jackson/Carter vote.  And he would be facing a number of liberal candidates (which is what Carter actually encountered) to win a plurality in several primary states and pick up enough delegates to win the nomination. 

In the general, hard to say.  Remember that Ford had a tremendous fight to win the Republican nomination away from Ronald Reagan.  I would think that a lot of the Reagan voters would have moved to Wallace (unless Ford selected Reagan as his running mate).  Which would then make the Democrats quite competitive in Texas and the Mountain West states.  But we're talking about numerous variables here.

[Podgy the Bear]

Perhaps the more interesting scenario is what would have happened in 1972 had Wallace not been shot.  He was going to win the Michigan and Maryland primaries regardless.   His message on school busing was very strong that year.

Wallace was not going to get the Democratic nomination in 1972, but the party would have gone to the convention with the probability that no one was going the nomination on the first ballot--with the vote split between McGovern, Humphrey, and Wallace.     And a healthy George Wallace would have worked to be a kingmaker (as he had hoped in 1968 if the election had gone to the House) to name the eventual nominee.  The Democrats weren't going to win in 1972, but perhaps a compromise candidate could have done better against Nixon.

[VPH]

Of course, several factors have to be considered about 1976.  In today's world, George Wallace is seen as a right wing racist.   But in the reality of the days of 1976, he was perceived as a moderate-conservative---not significantly different from Jimmy Carter or Scoop Jackson.  Wallace would not have received the nomination without tremendous resistance from the left.   In this scenario, we are assuming that for Wallace to get the nomination, he would have consolidated the Jackson/Carter vote.  And he would be facing a number of liberal candidates (which is what Carter actually encountered) to win a plurality in several primary states and pick up enough delegates to win the nomination. 

In the general, hard to say.  Remember that Ford had a tremendous fight to win the Republican nomination away from Ronald Reagan.  I would think that a lot of the Reagan voters would have moved to Wallace (unless Ford selected Reagan as his running mate).  Which would then make the Democrats quite competitive in Texas and the Mountain West states.  But we're talking about numerous variables here.

In 1976, there was a brief discussion on the right about a Reagan/Wallace independent ticket so I'm inclined to agree that more than a few conservatives would have switched. But I also think Eugene McCarthy's libertarianish third-party bid would have picked up votes from disaffected liberals, so it's hard to tell exactly what would have happened on balance. I do think Ford prevails in the end.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

Wallace wins all the southern states and probably Oklahoma-Virginia....maybe if he pushes in Maryland or Ohio but Ford wins overall.