Are abortion referendums a net positive for the GOP's elecotral hopes long-term?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yes the GOP tends to lose almost all of them, but there are two political advantages it gives them vs abortion being decided by the legislatures:

1) The religious base doesn't blame the party for failing to ban abortion. Instead of R politicians being elected and too afraid to pass the controversial measure, they can merely point to the referendum and don't have chickens**t their way out of passing something like the 6 week ban.

2) It prevents the issue from being repeated every cycle by Democrats. Sure it will benefit the D's the same cycle its on the ballot, but after that its a non-issue as it can no longer be used anymore. If it were up to the legislatures, Democrats would be running on abortion each and every cycle but in states with a referendum it becomes one and done. See Ohio 2023, the abortion amendment will probably pass but it prevents Dems from using abortion as a rallying cause there in 2024 and beyond.

The only states that support an abortion ban is the south and maybe Utah/Idaho. Otherwise its pretty much political poison for the GOP and something they would rather avoid dealing with the consequences every cycle in swing states and just get it over with and move on.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I feel like those two points are close to being contradictory: 2) presumes that Republicans will refrain from prioritizing this issue due to it being "solved" in a popular referendum, while 1) would likely lead to a higher engagement of the anti-abortionist religious right within the Republican party, leading Republicans to continue to prioritize this issue

[BeepBorp]

Eventually the GOP will abandon referendums entirely, because they would rather ban abortion than get re-elected. The inmates are running the asylum.

[Morning in Atlas]

lol

[Ferguson97]

Oh cool you’ve reached the bargaining stage

[cg41386]

Nope.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Oh cool you’ve reached the bargaining stage

I don't neccesarily have this same perspective as it was a concept I found on RRH and thought I would just share it here to gain further insight on the subject.

[Ferguson97]

Oh cool you’ve reached the bargaining stage

I don't neccesarily have this same perspective as it was a concept I found on RRH and thought I would just share it here to gain further insight on the subject.

What is RRH?

And anyway, my serious answer to your question is: no, it is not good for the GOP that an issue on which they are extremely unpopular is repeatedly bringing voters to the polls. I also reject your premise that referendums are a "one and done" sort of deal, where once abortion is "safe" in the state, that voters will just forget about it. All it takes is someone talking about a national ban (it doesn't matter how realistic that threat is, people just have to believe it).

[cg41386]

Oh cool you’ve reached the bargaining stage

I don't neccesarily have this same perspective as it was a concept I found on RRH and thought I would just share it here to gain further insight on the subject.

What is RRH?

A right-wing elections site.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Oh cool you’ve reached the bargaining stage

I don't neccesarily have this same perspective as it was a concept I found on RRH and thought I would just share it here to gain further insight on the subject.

What is RRH?

A right-wing elections site.

It's not city data level of right wing though, think of it mostly composed by moderate Rs. 

[Vosem]

Maybe in the extremely long term, the way TABOR has probably been a net positive for Colorado Democrats by taking some of the GOP's best issues off the table. Certainly not in the short term, though, and plausibly not in the long term either depending on how the behavior of GOP politicians develops over time.

[Lief 🗽]

Lol at thinking the GOP will just take “no” from the voters as an answer on this. They loathe democracy. They have turned wide swaths of the country into Russia-style fake democracies on the state level. They’re not just going to give up on their half century long political project because a referendum said so.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol at thinking the GOP will just take “no” from the voters as an answer on this. They loathe democracy. They have turned wide swaths of the country into Russia-style fake democracies on the state level. They’re not just going to give up on their half century long political project because a referendum said so.

lol

[Lief 🗽]

Lol at thinking the GOP will just take “no” from the voters as an answer on this. They loathe democracy. They have turned wide swaths of the country into Russia-style fake democracies on the state level. They’re not just going to give up on their half century long political project because a referendum said so.

lol

lol

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Wisconsin_State_Assembly_election

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol at thinking the GOP will just take “no” from the voters as an answer on this. They loathe democracy. They have turned wide swaths of the country into Russia-style fake democracies on the state level. They’re not just going to give up on their half century long political project because a referendum said so.

lol

lol

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Wisconsin_State_Assembly_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nevada_Assembly_election

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would abort this wishful thinking if I were you.

[Hermit For Peace]

In the long-term the Republican party is going backwards. Instead of embracing a new day and a new generation of thought, they are clinging to methods that no longer work because they are stuck in the backwoods of time. That's a bad place to be if you want to win elections.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Republicans have made it abundantly clear for years if not decades that they aren't the biggest fans of democracy and don't really believe (correctly in many cases) that their ideological aims are very popular, so as rational actors maximizing their self-interest their electoral hopes long-term or even medium-term are not their priority.

[RRusso1982]

The thing about abortion is that I don't believe that it is the black and white issue both sides say it is.  The Democrats' position on abortion is abortion on demand paid for by taxpayers up to and including in the delivery room.  A lot of Republicans want to ban abortion for all reasons including rape and incest.  Most people do not support either extreme.  I would say a good sized plurality of Americans, if not a majority, are somewhere near where I am on the issue.  I am a former Republican and left the party because of Trump.  I consider myself pro-choice with some reasonable restrictions.  Against late term, against federal funding of elective abortions, for parental notification laws for minors, and for conscience laws, like you can't require a Catholic hospital to perform elective abortions.  But at the end of the day, I believe the option should be there. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Really amazing copium here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mikado pointed out one state where this is truly going to be devastating for the GOP is Pennsylvania. Voters now are going to understand that Pennsylvania elects an R Governor, then abortion will become illegal in the state. There's really no way around it, it's quite unlikely the state party would ever nominate a pro-choice Republican and an R Governor can't get elected with a D Legislature.

Now perhaps one could argue the PA Supreme Court would be guaranteed now to strike down any such ban. But then that also means the Republicans are effectively locked out of a PASC majority as well...not a pleasant thought for them.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What part of the voters don't trust you to stop at X amount of weeks do Republicans not understand?

[Person Man]

It should but it won't.

[7,052,770]

No because a significant portion of the GOP base believes abortion is the same thing as murder and will force its politicians to keep fighting on this issue.

[CityofSinners]

Yes it helps the GOP. Anything that lowers the stakes and importance of abortion as a topic is good for the GOP outside of deep red states.

Looking at elections and referendums since Dobbs, voter seem to have an understanding of how credible the threat to legal abortion is.
Democrats running in blue states didn't seem to get much if any benefit from running on abortions. I'm looking especially at NY and CA here. There was no credible threat to legal abortion in those states.

When there was a credible threat to abortion like in PA+WI Governor races or the WI SC race, dems got a clear boost.