When will the Russia-Ukraine war end?

[SnowLabrador]

Three things are clear to me:

Ukraine is not going to surrender any of the land that is rightfully theirs, and why should they? It's their territory, and the Russians are committing genocide against them. Plus, if Ukraine falls, the rest of Europe is next.

Russia is not going to withdraw willingly. If sanctions were going to make Putin back down, this would have happened already. Putin is likely to be killed if he withdraws, so he won't do this. Additionally, Russia has over three times more men to throw into the meat grinder than Ukraine. Therefore, the only way Ukraine wins is to beat Russia on the battlefield.

Ukraine has until 2029 to do this if we're lucky, 2025 if we're not. The instant a Republican becomes President again, they will cut off all aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine will lose the war, since aid is all that's keeping them afloat. Therefore, the Biden administration would be wise to send the most lethal aid possible to defeat Russia.

Since I happen to think Trump wins in 2024 and takes office in 2025, I expect Ukraine to lose the war then. I don't know how long World War III will last as a result, but to make things simple, I'll say it lasts about as long as World War II did. Therefore, I'll vote 2030s. I'm curious to hear your thoughts.

[pppolitics]

After Biden wins reelection, Putin realizes that the war is hopeless and pulls out.

[Storr]

End as in officially ending with a peace treaty and/or other binding agreement or, like the War in Kosovo, ending where there's a halt to active fighting, but no official end to the conflict and continued tension with occasional flare ups?

The former: Definitely only after Putin is dead or no longer in power. He feels that it is his historical mission to keep Ukraine in "the Russian World", meaning he has no interest in ending the war. Even post-Putin, a Korea-like freezing of the then current conflict lines might only be what's agreed to.

The latter: Sometime after the 2024 US Presidential election; Russia clearly hopes a second Trump term would give them an end to the war in their favor. Neither side feels it's in their interest to agree to a ceasefire at the moment and I'm not sure when that might change. Maybe if Western support to Ukraine wanes, forcing them to accept the then current geographical "reality"?

[jaichind]

I doubt a Trump administration policies will be that different from the Biden administration. I do think Trump will to shift more of the cost of the war to the EU. 

[CumbrianLefty]

After Biden wins reelection, Putin realizes that the war is hopeless and pulls out.

An interesting hypothesis, I wonder how much Russia *is* hoping for Trump to come back?