Was Trump really on track to win reelection before Covid?

[President Johnson]

This seems to be a narrative that's been around lately. Was Trump really on track to win reelection before Covid? I think he may have been more competitive than widely assumed, but "on track" seems quite far fetched. Remember that he was one of the least popular presidents in modern history and never had positive approval ratings on average.

I do admit, however, that my general assumption through his entire presidency was probably a false assumption and wishful thinking. I long thought 2016 was a fluke and the "perfect storm" after the Comey letter and that Clinton would have won in nine out of ten times. And that quickly after Trump took over people realized his election was a huge error and he was absolutely not up to the job. And therefore any halfway competent challenger would easily take him out in 2020. Nonetheless, I remember that lots of journalists and users on this forum also thought Trump was more likely to lose reelection between mid-2017 and early 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes for 3 reasons

1. 2018 wasn’t that bad of a midterm defeat for the GOP compared to 2006 for them and 2010/14 for the Dems . The democrats sure won but if you did a House Popular Vote Map , the map was basically the 2016 map + WI/MI/PA/AZ/IA for them which still put them under 300 EV . So it’s not hard to imagine once you take the midterm boost away , Trump still wins the EC.

2. The democratic primary was a complete clown car in 2019-early parts of 2020 with the debates being completely chaotic and democrats pandering further and further left . In a non Covid world , those primary promises Biden made would have harmed him far more sorta like it did to Romney in 2012 .

3. The first impeachment did backfire on the democrats as Trump’s approvals went up after that

4.  Polls consistently shows that 60-70% of Americans thought the economy was in really good shape and those types of numbers absolutely do help incumbents out and Biden isn’t really that great of a candidate to overcome them

[Progressive Pessimist]

Probably. Democrats weren't really able to have a meaningful message until Trump failed at the biggest test of his term.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans, and espeially Trump supporters, got inoculated for COVID-19 at lower rates and were less likely to survive to vote... or to have their votes counted. The GOP made much of disqualifying the votes of deceased voters who had cast an absentee ballot... and this time a disproportionate number  of the absentee votes deleted due to the death of a voter were those of Trump.

The 2020 election was a nail-biter, but without the margin of inoculations, Trump might have won Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin... and still be President.  Incumbent Presidents usually get re-elected if they choose to run for re-election. That includes mediocre-to-awful Presidents. Exceptions:

Hoover (faulted for the Great Depression)
Ford (incompetent campaigner)
Carter (bad luck anda changing political culture)
the elder Bush (third term of a tired agenda)
Trump (thoroughly-awful President... but almost got re-elected!)

[Sumner 1868]

No, it was pretty clear in early 2020 a recession was near. COVID just created a more complicated situation in it's place instead.

[Pres Mike]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

[Pres Mike]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

There were no signs of a recessions, the economy was still strong. Just like there were no "signs" back in 2022.

Cable news likes to predict a recession because its "interesting"

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

There were no signs of a recessions, the economy was still strong. Just like there were no "signs" back in 2022.

Cable news likes to predict a recession because its "interesting"

The yield curve had already inverted in late 2019.

[Pres Mike]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

There were no signs of a recessions, the economy was still strong. Just like there were no "signs" back in 2022.

Cable news likes to predict a recession because its "interesting"

The yield curve had already inverted in late 2019.

That alone is not an upcoming sign of a recession, just like two quarters of negative growth alone is not a sign of a recession. Labeling a recession requires multiple things.

Without COVID, the odds are much greater that a recession didn't occur in 2020 than actually occurs. Its was always a low possiblity hoped by Democrats.

[dw93]

I think so, he wins with the 2016 map minus Michigan, give or take Nevada.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think so. The 2020 was still dangerously close even though Biden won 7 million more votes. He probably wins Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe Nevada. He'd still lose the popular vote by millions.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I think so. The 2020 was still dangerously close even though Biden won 7 million more votes. He probably wins Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe Nevada. He'd still lose the popular vote by millions.

COVID probably helped Trump in Nevada (and Florida for that matter).

[Agonized-Statism]

A recession was likely with the inversion of the yield curve and the manufacturing sector in its biggest slump in over a decade because of the trade war with China, not to mention his movement was losing steam after Charolettesville, the Shayrat missile strike, the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, et cetera. He was getting down to just the old and increasingly outnumbered conservative base and all he really had was Democrat factionalism and the economy on his side. COVID was as much a shot in the arm for him (pun intended) as it was his downfall, as it brought out millions of low propensity voters against the lockdowns- many of them men of color- and the QAnon followers. Without it, assuming he doesn't keep going at Iran and starts a devastating war, I think a recession, Operation Gideon, and probably some smaller police brutality protests would have done him in over the summer.

[Person Man]

I think so. The 2020 was still dangerously close even though Biden won 7 million more votes. He probably wins Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe Nevada. He'd still lose the popular vote by millions.

Maybe. How many votes do you think COVID actually flipped? I am sure some people probably voted TRUMP because of his response to COVID.


I mean, say that Pennsylvania is the closest state, that means that Trump wins WI by .4% and GA/AZ by 1%. He probably wins 270-268, and maybe 276-262 if he somehow wins Nevada. Democrats probably still win the senate seats in CO, AZ and get at least one and probably 2 runoffs in Georgia. This would be the result of a 3.4% Biden NPV win.

Of course, this all assumes that the racial stuff happens. What happens if you butterfly away the racial stuff, too? Again. This is something that is largely seen as HELPING Trump, but could have hurt him, too.

Looking past 2020 in a non-COVID world:

One thing that would happen is that 2022 is a total bloodbath when Dobbs gets handed down. COVID might have been a huge blessing in disguise for them.

Chances are, Barnes, Beasley, and maybe even Murphy win in 2022 and Democrats are most definitely winning 30+ seats in the house, provided that Trump is reelected with a 2022 house composition.

[oldtimer]

Yes he was.

[darklordoftech]

The argument that Trump would have won if it wasn’t for COVID comes from the perceived closeness of the election. If Biden won a landslide, I don’t think you’d hear that argumemt as much.

[dw93]

The argument that Trump would have won if it wasn’t for COVID comes from the perceived closeness of the election. If Biden won a landslide, I don’t think you’d hear that argumemt as much.

For me it's not just the closeness of the election. While I do think Trump should've been impeached in the 1st impeachment, the Democrats royally screwed up the optics of it, and generally screwed themselves optically in terms of the Russia investigation and it backfired on them. To top it off, the Democratic primaries were a crowded sh**tshow and while Biden obviously still would've won the nomination, just how well would the base have rallied without the backdrop of Trump royally botching the federal response to a global pandemic and without George Floyd's murder? Also, quotes I always constantly heard during Trump's Presidency was "I don't like Trump, but..." or "Trump's an a**hole, but..." Just add a "I'm making more money now than I was four years ago" at the end of "I don't like Trump, but..." or add a "my 401k more than doubled since he took office" at the end of "Trump's an a**hole, but" or add a "he's better than the socialist Democrat party" at the end of either one of those quotes and that's why I feel he would've won.

[Bush did 311]

I was fully prepared to let Biden lose after the 2020 primary. Covid changed my mind last minute. I would assume plenty others were in the same boat.

[DaleCooper]

I don't think so. I don't think COVID lost him as many voters as the endless rioting (and the left's support of it) gained him.

[Radicalneo]

Covid helped him

[Skill and Chance]

So the CW on here is now that COVID was a net benefit to Trump?!  That just seems bizarre to me.

[Pericles]

So the CW on here is now that COVID was a net benefit to Trump?!  That just seems bizarre to me.

The polling showed that Trump's response got majority disapproval and it was worse than his overall support. As such an important issue, this looks like an election-losing liability right there.

[Pres Mike]

I was fully prepared to let Biden lose after the 2020 primary. Covid changed my mind last minute. I would assume plenty others were in the same boat.

Why?

[MARGINS6729]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

I don't think impeachment would have mattered much without the pandemic happening- of course we'll never know now. But COVID made it seem like ancient history, lol.