French Senate Election - Sept. 24, 2023

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The French (half-)Senate (indirect) election is being held this Sunday. 170 seats out of 348 are to be renewed from 'series 1', which includes all departments numbered 37 to 66, 75, 77, 78, 91 to 95, five overseas collectivities (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Mayotte and New Caledonia) and half of the 12 expats seats. These seats were last renewed in the fall of 2017. Senators serve six year terms.

The Senate is elected in each department by an electoral college made up (for the metro and most overseas seats) of parliamentarians, regional and departmental councillors and delegates from municipal councils (who make up around 95% of the electoral colleges). The number of delegates from each commune varies based on population, and all communes with a population over 300,000 send additional delegates over and above the full municipal council. In practice, despite some tinkering around the edges (under Flanby), the smaller communes are significantly over-represented at the expense of larger ones, so the electoral college is in very large part made up of delegates from the smaller communes (whose mayors and councillors tend to be more apolitical, or at least without clear partisan loyalties).

The number of seats by department varies loosely based on population. Departments with 1 or 2 senators elect them using majority voting - candidates run separately, electors have as many votes as there are seats and candidates require an absolute majority in the first round to win or a plurality in successive rounds (no candidate is legally forced to withdraw from successive rounds). Departments with 3 or more senators elect them by proportional representation (highest averages) - parties run closed lists of candidates, electors vote for lists and so forth.

The Senate can't kill legislation, although it can significantly delay and/or amend legislation and - above all - be a hassle for the government. Those who know French history will also know that the president of the Senate would become interim president should the presidency be vacant. In the constitutional theory, the Senate represents 'territorial collectivities' (local governments) and, informally, rural regions. In practice, it is commonly perceived as a retirement home for failed politicians, decrepit hacks and old white men. The average age is about 60, which is 11 years higher than for the National Assembly. Two-thirds of senators are men, with the share of women in the upper house gradually increasing over the past cycles (from just a quarter ten years ago).

The right or the centre controlled the Senate from the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958 until the socialist left gained control, for the first time ever, in 2011. The right comfortably regained control of the Senate in 2014, and expanded its majority in 2017 and 2020. The current president of the Senate, since 2014 (and prior to that from 2008 to 2011), is the jovial rotund 74-year-old Gérard Larcher (LR), the longest-serving senator, who is a stereotype of what people imagine the average senator to be like (old, male, fat, likes meat and wine, old-style right-winger). This year there's been media speculation that Macron might be looking at him as a potential prime minister.

In comparison to the lower house, the Senate was historically somewhat less politicized or polarized and senators have tended to be more moderate, pragmatic and consensual than the deputies. In comparison to the lower house, 'cadre parties' (partis de notables) were historically over-represented in the Senate - this meant that, until the 1980s if not later, the Christian democrats, liberals/non-Gaullist right and radicals were 'over-represented' in the Senate while the Gaullist right and communists in particular were 'under-represented'. Today, macronismo, in part because of its weakness at a local level, only has a small Senate group of 24 members.

There is very little at stake in these elections because the right's large majority is not at risk. The Senate's politics evolve gradually, slowly. There will, however, be interesting races in the bigger departments up this year, which include Paris (12 seats), Nord (11), Pas-de-Calais (7) and the Île-de-France departments.

As per usual, there was some psychodrama on the left ('NUPES') because the PS, PCF and EELV agreed on common lists in several departments, including Paris, which led to an exaggerated freakout by LFI, which responded by running its own lists in most departments, labelled Union populaire écologique et sociale in a clear attempt to take ownership of the NUPES brand. However, LFI has few 'grands électeurs' in the electoral colleges, so they don't weigh very much at all, and will not win any seats, but could spoil it for the rest of the left in some places (par for the course for Mélenchon's cultists). Left-wing unity is only good when LFI says so.

The RN has no senators anymore (Stéphane Ravier defected to zemmourismo) but feels confident that it can elect a few this year - all are long-shots, but definitely not impossible in several departments.

The outgoing Senate composition, by group, is as follows:

LR 145 (65 at play)
SOC 64 (33 at play)
UC 57 (29 at play) - centrist group, UDI and MoDem
RDPI 24 (12 at play) - macronista group, which adopted a Third Republic-worthy name in 2020 rather than 'LREM'
CRC 15 (11 at play) - PCF and allies
RDSE 14 (7 at play) - the oldest parliamentary group in France, created in 1892, the old Radical group, a mix of centre-left and centre-right senators
LIRT 14 (7 at play) - soft-macronista centre-right liberal group with Édouard Philippe's Horizons, created in 2017
EST 12 (4 at play) - green group recreated in 2020
RASNAG 3 (2 at play) - shrinking non-inscrits

A preview of each department follows


Indre-et-Loire (3): The right won all three seats in 2017. The left, boosted by regaining Tours in 2020, has a solid chance at winning one seat, with a PS-EELV-PCF list led by Pierre-Alain Roiron (the brother of a former president of the general council), with a LFI list in between which shouldn't do too much damage. The right has two lists: the LR list led by the president of the departmental council Jean-Gérard Paumier, with incumbent LR senator Isabelle Raimond-Pavero in second, and a macronista list led by departmental councillor Vincent Louault (Horizons), the son of retiring UC-DVD senator Pierre Louault, with former senator and mayor of Benais Stéphanie Riocreux (ex-PS) in second.

Isère (5): The left has two seats, LR has two and macronismo has one. Incumbent senator Guillaume Gontard (EELV) leads a united EELV-PCF-PS list which will be hoping to hold retiring PS senator André Vallini's seat (with a PCF candidate in second) and perhaps, if things go particularly well, gain a third seat. But their ambitions may be checked by a dissident DVG list, led by Leyrieu mayor Jean-Yves Brenier and pushed (from symbolic seventh place) Christophe Ferrari, president of Grenoble-Alpes Métropole, rival of Grenoble's EELV mayor Éric Piolle. There is also a LFI list. The right's list is led by incumbent senators Michel Savin and Frédérique Puissat, while macronista senator Didier Rambaud leads his own list, openly admitting that it won't be easy to hold his seat.

Jura (2): The race is on the centre/right. Incumbent senator Sylvie Vermeillet (UC-Rad) is running for a second term. The LR incumbent is retiring, and should be succeeded by the LR president of the departmental council Clément Pernot. LR has a second candidate (a departmental councillor-mayor). The left is not a serious factor here.

Landes (2): The Landes remain a left-wing stronghold at the local level, and both PS incumbents should have no trouble winning re-election.

Loir-et-Cher (2): Both senators, who both sat in the UC group, are retiring. The left is not a factor, and, like in 2017, the battle will be fought between the right and macronista-leaning centrists in the footsteps of former MoDem senator Jacqueline Gourault (former minister and now member of the Constitutional Council). The main candidates would appear to be LR's Catherine Lhéritier (departmental councillor and mayor of Valloire-sur-Cisse), the UDI vice-president of the departmental council Bernard Pillefer, the centrist-macronista mayor of Mennetou-sur-Cher Christophe Thorin and the centrist-macronista Jean-Luc Brault, president of the CC Val-de-Cher-Controis.

Loire (4): The right and left hold two seats each, and both right-wing senators are retiring. On the left, incumbent senators Jean-Claude Tissot (PS) and Cécile Cukierman (PCF), will be leading separate lists, like in 2017, further challenged by separate EELV and LFI lists. The 2020 municipal elections did not really change the balance too much. On the right, the LR list is led by Hervé Reynaud, mayor of Saint-Chamond, with Clotilde Robin in second place hoping to retain the right's second seat (in 2017, two separate right-wing lists won a seat each). A DVD list, supported by macronismo, led by Pierre-Jean Rochette, dept. councillor and mayor of Boën-sur-Lignon, could be in contention for a seat. The soap opera-esque sexual blackmail scandal of Saint-Étienne LR mayor Gaël Perdriau could have an impact on the right.

Haute-Loire (2): Incumbent senators Laurent Duplomb (LR) and Olivier Cigolotti (UC-UDI) will be re-elected in the first round, their only opposition being LFI and RN candidates.

Loire-Atlantique (5): The left holds three seats and the right holds two, and two PS senators are retiring. The official left PS-EELV-PCF list is led by incumbent ecologist senator Ronan Dantec (who has his own microparty, Territoires44), with Karine Daniel (PS), adjointe to the mayor of Nantes Johanna Rolland in second, and a EELV candidate in third. The objective would be to hold all three seats won by the left in 2017, on two separate lists at the time, but this official list is challenged by a dissident list led by Philippe Grosvalet, former president of the departmental council (2011-2021) from Saint-Nazaire, who protested the domination of the Nantes metro in the makeup of the PS-endorsed list at the expense of the Saint-Nazaire region (Grosvalet's dissident list also comes from the anti-NUPES/anti-EELV faction of the PS). His second candidate is the mayor of Pontchâteau, and a DVD departmental councillor has the fourth spot. The right-wing list is led by senator Laurence Garnier (LR), leader of the opposition in Nantes who became senator in 2020. The centrist list is led by senator Joël Guerriau (Horizons), allied to the mayor of Pornic, who is third on his list. It is likely that both Garnier and Guerriau will hold their own seats.

Loiret (3): PS senator Jean-Pierre Sueur is retiring after 22 years in the Senate, which should weaken the left somewhat given Sueur's roots and local recognition, which will be seeking to hold its seat in the department with a PS-PCF list led by Christophe Chaillou, mayor of Saint-Jean-de-la-Ruelle, a suburban commune of Orléans (challenged to his left by a LFI-EELV list). The right-wing list is led by incumbent senator Hugues Saury, but is weakened by the retirement of the other LR senator and a centre-right list led by Frédéric Néraud (Horizons), the vice-president of the departmental council.

Lot (2): The race here is open by the retirement, after 12 years in the Senate, of RDSE-Radical senator Jean-Claude Requier, who is also the president of the RDSE group. The retiring incumbent supports the two Radical candidates, but is said to prefer Raphaël Daubet, departmental councillor and mayor of Martel (Requier's hometown of which he was also mayor until 2014), who is notably Requier's suppléante, Geneviève Lasfargues (PRG). The other seat is held by the PS' Angèle Préville, who may lose her seat to the PS' other candidate, Jean-Marc Vayssouze-Faure, the mayor of Cahors, the largest city, and president of the departmental mayors' association, which gives him a big leg up. There is another left-wing candidate, Anne Laporterie (DVG).

Lot-et-Garonne (2): Incumbent senators Christine Bonfanti-Dossat (LR) and Jean-Pierre Moga (UDI) are both favoured to win a second term. The PS only has a single candidate, Michel Masset, mayor of Damazan and departmental councillor.

Lozère (1): France's least populated department has only one seat in the Senate, currently held by Guylène Pantel (PS but in the RDSE), who took office after the death of Alain Bertrand in 2020 and who is seeking a first full term. The right's candidate is Alain Astruc, long-time departmental councillor and mayor of Peyre en Aubrac, who lost by a narrow margin to Bertrand in 2017. The race should be close again: Pantel lacks her late predecessor's name recognition and political trajectory, and is challenged by two minor left-wing candidates (G.s and PCF).

Maine-et-Loire (4): The LR-UDI list is led by incumbent senator Stéphane Piednoir, with a UDI regional councillor in second, aiming to hold the right's two seats despite the retirement of Catherine Deroche. Horizons incumbent Emmanuel Capus leads his own list. The left, which has held one seat in this department since 2001, has a retiring incumbent and two main lists - one led by Grégory Blanc, a departmental councillor, supported by EELV and anti-NUPES Socialists, and the other led by Rodolphe Mirande, PS mayor of Rou-Marson. In 2017, the left saved its seat by only a handful of votes, so its division could seriously threaten its chances of saving its only seat.

Manche (3): The right-wing LR list is led by Philippe Bas, seeking a third term, with the other LR incumbent, Béatrice Gosselin, in second on the list. Their goal to hold both seats is made difficult by a macronista-right list led by Gaëtan Lambert, mayor of Sartilly-Baie-Bocage, which seems to have a fair amount of backing. A DVD list and another centrist list are also challenging. On the left, a PS-PCF list is led by Sébastien Fagnen, 'maire délégué' of Cherbourg-Octeville, and is seeking to hold the seat left open by the retirement of PS senator Jean-Michel Houllegatte.

Marne (3): In 2017, a right-wing list led by René-Paul Savary had won all three seats. This year, all three incumbents (one LR and two UC-UDI) are retiring. Christian Bruyen, president of the departmental council, leads the right-wing list, which is presented as the successors of the three incumbent senators. However, a repeat of 2017's 'grand slam' is unlikely: the Marne is one two departments where Édouard Philippe's Horizons has high hopes to gain a seat, thanks to the support of Reims mayor Arnaud Robinet and Catherine Vautrin, president of the Reims urban community, both LR defectors. Horizons' list is led by Cédric Chevalier, mayor of Saint-Léonard, a tiny suburban commune just outside of Reims (with the vice-president of Châlons Agglo in second on the list). There is PS-PCF-EELV list and a LFI list, but the left stands no chance in this right-wing stronghold. The RN list is led by former deputy Anne-Sophie Frigout, who lost her seat in a by-election earlier this year. Juliette de Causans, leader of the small macronista scam party 'Europe Égalité Écologie', is leading a list; she's famous for being a perennial candidate and for Photoshopping her campaign ads to look younger and better (there are even articles about her in the British media this month, so her scam is working quite well).

Haute-Marne (2): LR holds both seats here, with only Bruno Sido seeking reelection. LR's other candidate is Anne-Marie Nédélec, mayor of Nogent and departmental councillor. Two DVD mayors are also running, notably Virginie Gerevic, mayor of Eurville-Bienville. While still very unlikely, RN would like to win a seat in Haute-Marne, one of their strongholds, and their sole candidate is Benjamin Fèvre, mayor of Courcelles-sur-Blaise. The two-round system in this small department makes it difficult for them.

Mayenne (2): Incumbent senators Élisabeth Doineau (UC-DVC) and Guillaume Chevrollier (LR) are seeking reelection. Doineau's former party, the UDI, is supporting Chevrollier and another candidate, Adélaïde Dejardin. The left gained Laval and Mayenne, the two largest communes, in 2020 but this shouldn't seriously threaten the centre-right's dominance here. The two incumbents should, most likely, be reelected.

Meurthe-et-Moselle (4): In 2017, the four seats split neatly between two lists, 3 seats to 1 in the right's favour. Just like six years ago, the right's list is led by LR senator Jean-François Husson, with RDSE-PRV senator Véronique Guillotin in second, while the left's list is led by PS senator Olivier Jacquin, with the support of the PS and PCF (a LFI list challenges them). The left regained Nancy in 2020, but its impact on the electoral college is fairly muted. A repeat of the 3-1 result appears likely, unless LFI spoils things for the left.

Meuse (2): Gérard Longuet (LR), is retiring after a long parliamentary career (which began in 1978) which included nearly 22 years in the Senate, since 2001 (save for his time in cabinets under Sarkozy). The department's other senator, Franck Menonville (LIRT-PRV), is seeking reelection. The other strong candidates in this conservative department are on the right: Jean-Christophe Vélain, DVD mayor of Vacherauville, Jocelyne Antoine, DVD mayor of Senon, Sylvain Gillet, centrist mayor of Nançois-sur-Ornain and a LR candidate (who doesn't hold elected office).

Morbihan (3): Left-wing/ecologist senator Joël Labbé's retirement weakens the left here given that Labbé had a strong personal vote. Moreover, the left is split between two lists: Simon Uzenat, opposition councillor in Vannes, leads a PS-PCF list, while Thérèse Thiéry, former mayor of Lanester and sister of Jean-Yves Le Drian (though unlike her brother, she's remained on the left and is pro-NUPES), supported by EELV. LR incumbent Muriel Jourda leads the LR list, while retiring UDI senator Jacques Le Nay supports a centrist list led by Yves Bleunven, mayor of Grand-Champ.

Moselle (5): 13 lists competing for five seats, split 4-1 for the right in 2017. The LR-UDI list has two incumbents: Jean-Marie Mizzon (UDI) as the top candidate and Catherine Belrhiti in second. DVD senator Christine Herzog, surprisingly elected in 2017 as the second candidate on right-wing gadfly senator Jean-Louis Masson's list (but the two are now on bad terms). Masson, who has shifted to the far-right to the point of leading the RN's list in Moselle in the 2021 regional elections, is not seeking reelection but his base of votes provides some hope for the RN, whose list is led by the mayor of a tiny village (but with RN deputy Alexandre Loubet in a symbolic fifth place and Hayange mayor Fabien Engelmann in third), with the hopes to capture votes from rural electors. Horizons has a list led by Anne Boucher, whose list includes four mayors though she doesn't hold elected office (she is supported by the mayors of Thionville and Montigny-lès-Metz), while there's also a LR dissident list led by Laurent Muller, mayor of Hombourg-Haut, with five mayors on the list. The left is also divided. Michaël Weber, PS mayor of Woelfling-lès-Sarreguemines, will seek to hold the seat left open by the retirement of PS senator Jean-Marc Todeschini, and has the mayors of Audun-le-Tiche and Talange in second and third on his list. Another left-wing list, officially supported by the PCF and led by the left-Rads (RDG), challenges Weber, who is anti-NUPES, but Weber's list appears strong enough to hold one seat.

Nièvre (2): PS senator Patrice Joly is seeking reelection, as is Nadia Sollogoub (UC), the surprise winner in 2017 (and the first right-wing senator elected in Mitterrand's old stronghold) thanks to the division of macronismo in the second round. Marie-Christine Amiot, mayor of Saint-Firmin, is the other PS candidate. The macronista deputy for the second constituency, Patrice Perrot, is also running. The list of candidates also includes two LFI candidates, one Communist, two EELV candidates, another macronista, one DVG, one RN and one other.

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Nord (11): It's a real mess, with 16 lists fighting over eleven seats, and divisions on all sides. In 2017, the result was as follows: UDI 2, PS 2, PCF 2, LR 2, LREM 1, DVD 1, DVD 1. On the left, to begin with, PS senator Patrick Kanner, leader of the Socialist group, leads the official PS list, supported in second place by Audrey Linkenheld, close ally of Lille mayor Martine Aubry. However, PS incumbent Martine Filleul, sidelined in Linkenheld's favour, is leading her own dissident list. The PCF, led by senator Éric Bocquet, suffered substantial losses in the 2020 municipal elections, which will make holding their two seats quite challenging. On top of that, LFI, relishing every occasion to weaken the loathed PCF, has a list with a high-profile top candidate, Ugo Bernalicis, deputy for the 2nd constituency since 2017, not enough to win a seat but perhaps enough to spoil it for the PCF. An EELV list also adds to the divisions on the left. Not to be outdone, the centre-right is divided as well. UDI senator Valérie Létard is retiring after over 18 years in the upper house, first elected in 2001, and is supporting a list led by Guislain Cambier, vice-president of the regional council, at the expense of incumbent UDI senator Olivier Henno (who was second on her list in 2017), who leads his own list with some LR support. Marie-Hélène Quatrebœufs (UDI), a departmental councillor, leads another list with Thierry Lazaro, former deputy and LR mayor of Phalempin since 2000, recently found guilty of illegal conflict of interest. On the right, LR senator Marc-Philippe Daubresse, recently indicted in a corruption scandal dating back to 2017, leads a list with the other LR incumbent, Brigitte Lherbier, in second. The 'presidential majority' is no less divided. Incumbent macronista Renaissance senator Frédéric Marchand (ex-PS), backed by Jean-René Lecerf, the former right-wing president of the departmental council until 2021 and former senator, is challenged by a Horizons list led by Franck Dhersin, vice-president of the regional council and mayor of Téteghem-Coudekerque-Village, who claims to be a philippiste but not a macroniste. The strongest list, however, is led by DVD (LIRT) senator Dany Wattebled, who is supported by Damien Castelain, president of the Lille metro (accused in several corruption scandals), Christian Poiret, the president of the departmental council, retiring senator Jean-Pierre Decool (DVD) and... Gérald Darmanin, the interior minister who takes care to retain his personal fiefdom in Tourcoing. To add to this mess, an independent list by Luc Waymel, former president of the association of rural mayors (who was on Kanner's list in 2017) with several DVD and DVG mayors, also appears in contention. The RN has an outside chance at scoring a seat, although its results in 2020 were not great, and it could be tough to find enough electors given the plethora of right-wing lists (which also includes a zemmourista list).

Oise (4): The three LR incumbents are each running their own lists: Édouard Courtial, Jérôme Bascher and Olivier Paccaud (only Bascher has LR's official endorsement). The right is strong enough here that it can afford to be divided without facing too much of a risk. The left is united (again, LFI excluded), but PS senator Laurence Rossignol is running in Val-de-Marne. The PS-PCF-EELV list's top candidate is Alexandre Ouizille. There are two centrist-macronista lists, as well as LFI and RN lists.

Orne (2): Incumbent senators Vincent Segouin (LR) and Nathalie Goulet (UDI) will most likely be easily reelected. Which is unfortunate because Goulet is an Azerbaijani asset who would happily support any genocide of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the left, the PS, PCF, EELV and LFI each have their own candidate. The presidential majority is supporting Olivier Bitz, a former subprefect.

Pas-de-Calais (7): The PS, which won two seats in 2017, will find it difficult to do the same this year, hurt by its losses at the local government level in this former stronghold and the defection of some of its members to macronismo, led by senator Michel Dagbert, former president of the departmental council. The PS list is led by Jérôme Darras, 'adjoint' to the mayor of Liévin, with incumbent senator Sabine Van Heghe (MDC) in second and Philippe Kemel (PS), mayor of Carvin, in third. The PCF list is led by senator Cathy Apourceau-Poly, who replaced Dominique Watrin in 2018, and welcomes incumbent ex-PS senator Jean-Pierre Corbisez (RDSE-DVG) with the second spot on the list. The PCF should have enough support to save one seat, but Corbisez will find it very difficult to be reelected. On the right, the LR-UDI list includes both right-wing imcumbents, Jean-François Rapin and Amel Gacquerre, will seek to hold both seats. In the end, the presidential majority is united behind incumbent MoDem senator Jean-Marie Vanlerenberghe, the dean of the Senate at 84 years old, seeking a fourth six-year term. Brigitte Bourguignon, former cabinet minister who was defeated in last year's legislative elections, is second on his list while Dagbert was convinced not to run again. Finally, the Pas-de-Calais, Panzergirl's stronghold, is perhaps the RN's best chance at a seat: in 2017 it was still a few hundred votes short of a seat; since then, the RN did well in 2020 and 2022 but poorly in 2021. Like in 2017, the RN's list is led by Christopher Szczurek, regional councillor and deputy to the mayor of Hénin-Beaumont, Steeve Briois.

Puy-de-Dôme (3): The LR list led by incumbent senator Jean-Marc Boyer, which has MEP and former cabinet minister Brice Hortefeux (accused in the Sarkozy-Gaddafi scandal) in third position, has its eyes on two seats, but must first face a strong centre-right UDI list led by Flavien Neuvy, departmental councillor and mayor of Cébazat, who ran in 2017 (5.6%). There's also another list, of various DVD/DVG rural mayors, that could bite into the right's electorate. Centre-left (RDSE) incumbent senator Éric Gold, elected as a macronista in 2017, is seeking reelection. The PS-PCF-EELV list is led by Marion Canales, 'adjointe' to the PS mayor of Clermont-Ferrand, Olivier Bianchi. The lone PS senator, Jacques-Bernard Magner, is retiring.

Pyrénées-Atlantiques (3): Senators Max Brisson (LR), Denise Saint-Pé (MoDem) and Frédérique Espagnac (PS) are all seeking reelection and should seemingly all hold their seats. There are five other lists, including PCF and LFI lists on the left.

Hautes-Pyrénées (2): Incumbent senators Viviane Artigalas (PS) and Maryse Carrère (PRG) should win reelection fairly easily, with no strong opposition on the right and centre.

Pyrénées-Orientales (2): LR won both seats here in 2017. One incumbent, Jean Sol, is running again, while the retiring incumbent's suppléante, Lauriane Josende, is the other LR candidate for the second seat. The left, which lost a seat here in 2017, is divided between the PS, PCF, EELV and LFI each with one candidate and doesn't really stand much of a chance. The RN conquered Perpignan with Louis Aliot in 2020, but that on its own wouldn't be enough to win a seat, although the far-right still fancies its chances at a surprise victory. Both RN candidates are 'adjoints' to Aliot in the departmental capital.

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Paris (12): The capital is always the big prize and top race of the serie 1 senatorial elections. In 2017, the PS won 4 seats, EELV and the PCF won one seat each with independent lists, and ex-EELV Bernard Jomier won one seat with his own list. Macronismo won one seat while the LR right won 4 seats, but on three separate lists, with a dissident list winning two. This year, there is a single PS-PCF-EELV list, which is no small feat considering the PS' internal divisions and the difficulties of getting three parties satisfied on a list. Together, this list is aiming for 8 seats, which would be a gain of one seat for the left. The list is led by incumbent PS senator Rémi Féraud, president of the Socialist group in the Paris city council and close to Anne Hidalgo. EELV has 2-3 candidates in eligible spots: Antoinette Guhl (2nd), former presidential candidate and MEP Yannick Jadot (3rd) and Anne Souyris (8th) who'd win the last seat if it does live up to its ambitions. The PCF has one seat secured, for Ian Brossat ('adjoint' to Hidalgo responsible for housing), who will replace retiring PCF senator Pierre Laurent. The other slots are for PS incumbent Marie-Pierre de La Gontrie (4th), Colombe Brossel (6th, also 'adjointe' to the mayor) and incumbent senator Bernard Jomier (7th, from 'Paris en commun' movement, a sort of pro-Hidalgo support group of non-PS members). The national leadership of the PS/Olivier Faure faction, opposed to Hidalgo's faction, finally gave the green light to the list, after having previously complained at the lack of representation for the Faure faction on the list (the top fauriste candidate is in 9th, who'd likely still end up in the Senate in a few years from a retirement/death). The left is upbeat about its chances because the Parisian right, where everyone hates each other, is once again divided. The official LR list is led by senator Catherine Dumas, elected as a dissident in 2017, with Francis Szpiner, mayor of the 16th, in second place and Marie-Claire Carrère-Gée in third. The official list is supported by Rachida Dati, mayor of the 7th and unsuccessful 2020 mayoral candidate (and using these elections to warm up her own repeat candidacy in 2026). Excluded from the list, MEP Agnès Evren, an ally of regional president Valérie Pécresse, has her own dissident list. In the election of the additional delegates to the electoral college by the city council, Evren's own list was supported by 16 councillors, which would ensure one seat for her. In addition, sarkozyste incumbent Pierre Charon, who led the official list in 2017, is running his own 'anti-system' list, having refused the fourth place offered to him and complaining that Francis Spinzer is a serial electoral loser, having lost five legislative elections, which is a bit rich coming from a guy who has only won thanks to proportional representation. Charon's list claims to be anti-system and includes no other elected officials (his second candidate is Pauline Déroulède, a wheelchair tennis player and descendant of anti-Semitic nationalist agitator Paul Déroulède), but in reality Charon is said to be well liked by Macron and the palace. Macronismo, on its end, managed to unite all three parties behind a single list led by incumbent RE senator Julien Bargeton, but it will find it quite difficult to hold its seat because, after its 2020 results, it only has 11 seats in the city council, when lists need 13 councillors to win a seat.

Seine-et-Marne (6): LR's three incumbent senators are on the same list, led by Anne Chain-Larché, and will be hoping to retain all 3 seats, but needs to hold off the left and centre and a stronger RN. Seine-et-Marne is one department where Horizons is optimistic about its chances, with a strong list by Louis Vogel, mayor of Melun. In 2017, the macronista list won two seats (both are retiring). On the left, PS incumbent Vincent Éblé leads a united list with PS, PCF and EELV which has a solid shot at regaining one seat.

Yvelines (6): In the stronghold of Gérard Larcher, president of the Senate, the right remains hegemonic. Larcher's LR-UDI list includes all five senators and wants a 'grand slam' - winning all 6 seats. In 2017, his list won about 58% of the vote and five seats. Macronismo was able to get behind a single list, led by incumbent senator Martin Lévrier (RE), who is seconded by Anne Grignon, the MoDem mayor of Lévis-Saint-Nom and protégé of MoDem digital minister Jean-Noël Barrot. The left, which lost its seats here in 2017 because of divisions, isn't making the same mistake again and has a united list (without LFI, obviously) led by EELV regional councillor Ghislaine Senée, which could win one seat.

Essonne (5): LR and UDI's four incumbents are split between three lists, which could result in some nasty surprises for them. The official LR list is led by senator Laure Darcos, while her colleague, senator Jean-Raymond Hugonet leads his own list, the two having been unable to agree on a common list. The UDI's two senators are on their own list led by Vincent Delahaye, one of the vice-presidents of the Senate. Holding all four seats will be difficult because the left's gains in the 2020 local elections allows them to have two seats in their targets. The left has a united list led by David Ros, the PS mayor of Orsay, with a PCF municipal councillor in second. The macronista list is led by MoDem incumbent Daphné Ract-Madoux, who succeeded Olivier Léonhardt after his death in 2022.

Hauts-de-Seine (7): In 2017, LR managed to be divided between no less than five lists (!) in the 92, the fiefdom of kleptocratic right-wing dynasties and feuding clans, which deprived them of a fourth seat. They're still divided this year, but less dramatically so. The official LR list led by senator Roger Karoutchi includes the other incumbent senators, Christine Lavarde and Philippe Pemezec (corrupt far-right racist, alleged sex pest), with the fourth place held by Joëlle Ceccaldi-Raynaud, mayor of Puteaux since 2004 and indicted of tax fraud (in a corruption scandal involving gold bars), who is trying to be elected to the Senate in order to arrange her succession as mayor by her son (which would be the third generation of the family controlling the city since 1969). However, that fourth seat may be out of reach because a dissident list led by Marie-Do Aeschlimann (wife of Manuel Aeschlimann, the mayor/political boss of Asnières-sur-Seine), who was snubbed for fourth place and turning down the sixth place on the official list. Incumbent UDI senator Hervé Marseille, president of the UC group and UDI, leads his own UDI list which includes, in second place, former MoDem deputy Isabelle Florennes (daughter of Pas-de-Calais senator Jean-Marie Vanlerenberghe). Macronismo has two senators here - André Gattolin (an ex-EELV reelected with LREM in 2017) and Xavier Iacovelli (the PS top candidate in 2017 who defected to LREM in 2019) - and Gattolin is retiring. Iacovelli, considered to be a weak candidate for macronismo, will find it very difficult to win reelection, especially with the MoDem allied with the UDI and biting into the macronista vote. The left is likely to win two seats, with a united list led by PCF incumbent Pierre Ouzoulias, with a EELV regional councillor in second spot.

Seine-Saint-Denis (6): In 2017, LR, after their strong results in 2014, placed first and won two seats in the very left-wing 93, while the PCF gained a second seat at the expense of a divided PS. The 2020 results indicate that LR remains in a good position to hold both of those seats, with their list led by incumbent senator Thierry Meignen, with Séverine Maroun, 'adjointe' to the mayor of Aulnay-sous-Bois in second. UDI senator Vincent Capo-Canellas leads his own list, with Aude Lagarde, mayor of Drancy and wife of corrupt clientelist Jean-Christophe Lagarde, in second on the list (the list also includes candidates from RE and Horizons). The PS(+EELV) and PCF are running separately here. The PCF's Éliane Assassi, president of the CRC group, is retiring after 19 years in the Senate and their list is led by senator Fabien Gay, but the loss of Saint-Denis in 2020 makes it nearly impossible for them to retain their second seat (the LFI is there to make sure of that). The PS-EELV list, which is favoured regain a second seat, is led by Corinne Narassiguin, who was deputy for the 1st expats constituency for a brief 7 months in 2012-13 and was defeated running in the canton of Aubervilliers in 2021.

Val-de-Marne (6): Six years ago, the six seats split 3-3 between left and right. The right's substantial gains in 2020 and 2021 (toppling the PCF from the presidency of the department) and the left's divisions this year allows the right to dream big. The LR list is led by incumbent senator and Moroccan regime lobbyist Christian Cambon, who was first elected in 2004. Marie-Carole Ciuntu, mayor of Sucy-en-Brie and Sylvain Berrios, mayor of Saint-Maur-des-Fossés, are second and third on the list, which is hopeful that it can score a third seat. UDI senator Laurent Lafon heads the UDI list, allied with Marie-Christine Ségui, Horizons mayor of Ormesson-sur-Marne, also hopeful that a second seat is on the cards. The left is not only weakened but divided, courtesy of Laurence Rossignol, Oise senator who is running for reelection in the 94 instead, which divided the PS and caused a falling out with EELV, which has one incumbent here. The official PS-PCF list is led by PCF incumbent Pascal Savoldelli, with Rossignol in second position. The PCF has already sacrificed a seat entirely here (Laurence Cohen, the other PCF incumbent, is retiring), their claim to it badly weakened by the party's defeats in 2020 and 2021. The official list faces a dissident list led by Akli Mellouli, second deputy to the mayor of Bonneuil-sur-Marne, supported by EELV (EELV regional councillor Annie Lahmer is second on his list), which refused the fourth place offered to it on the official list. The obligatory LFI list adds to the divisions on the left. A 4-2 split for the right is likely, a 5-1 catastrophe is not impossible if the left's votes are too divided.

Val-d'Oise (5): LR's incumbents Arnaud Bazin and Jacqueline Eustache-Brinio lead the LR list, joined in third place by Georges Mothron, former deputy and mayor of Argenteuil. In 2017, Sébastien Meurant won a seat as a LR dissident and is now a zemmourista, and is seeking reelection with his own list, which has a departmental councillor and small village mayor in second. Remains to be seen if he can win another term under his new political leanings. There's also a localist DVD list led by Daniel Fargeot, mayor of Andilly and president of the union of mayors of the Val-d'Oise, and which includes several other mayors, including the mayor of Garges-lès-Gonesse. The left's last remaining senator, Rachid Temal (PS), leads a PS-allies list. There's also a PCF-LFI list, but the PCF has lost much of its strength in the 95 (and its last senator, Robert Hue, left the party in 2008). Macronista incumbent Alain Richard, a former PS parliamentarian and defence minister under Jospin reelected with LREM in 2017, is seeking reelection at the age of 78, with former macronista deputy Zivka Park, defeated in 2022, in second on the list.

Guadeloupe (3): All three incumbents are running on separate lists. Victorin Lurel leads the official PS list, allied with the mayor of Le Moule and former deputy Gabrielle Louis-Carabin, while the other Socialist senator, Victoire Jasmin, has her own list. In addition, there's a third PS dissident list led by Jocelyn Sapotille, mayor of Lamentin. This situation could favour the other incumbent, Dominique Théophile (GUSR), who sits with the macronista RDPI group. GUSR made strong gains in 2020 and controls the departmental and regional councils.

Martinique (2): One incumbent, Maurice Antiste, is retiring and the other, Catherine Conconne (LME, sits in Socialist group but allied with LR in the 2021 regional election) seems unlikely to win reelection given her shift to the right. The PPM-led governing majority in the Martinican assembly supports Raphaël Séminor (PPM) and Fréderic Buval (DVG mayor of La Trinité) although there are two other PPM candidates running on their own. The separatist Péyi-A, a NUPES ally, supports Richard Barthéléry and Jean Lanoix, but also has a dissident candidate (Louise Telle).

La Réunion (4): The right, which won 3 out of 4 seats in 2017 with 58% of the vote, is more or less united with a LR-UDI list led by senator Viviane Malet, with UDI incumbent Nassimah Dindar, implicated in several corruption scandals, in third place, and supported by the LR president of the departmental council. There are two other DVD lists, one of which is led by a regional councillor allied with the RN. The left, which did fairly well in 2020 and regained the region in 2021 with Huguette Bello, can hope to regain one seat (the left's sole winner in 2017 defected to macronismo the next day...), but is divided between a PS-PCR-allies list led by Audrey Belim, municipal councillor in Saint-Denis (the largest city, led by former cabinet minister Ericka Bareigts) and a PLR (regional president Huguette Bello's party) list led by Évelyne Corbière and supported by 3 deputies. Macronismo is led by Michel Vergoz, former senator (2011-2017) and mayor of Sainte-Rose.

Mayotte (2): Both incumbents sit in the macronista RDPI group, one is retiring. Thani Mohamed Soilihi (RE) is running for a third term, and there are two other Renaissance candidates. Saïd Omar Oili, the mayor of Dzaoudzi, appears as a strong candidate. There are also 2 LR candidates. In general I don't know much what to expect.

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (1): 39 electors elect one senator. Stéphane Artano (Archipel demain/RDSE) is retiring. Former deputy and former cabinet minister (2014-2022) Annick Girardin is the candidate of her party, the centre-left-macronista Cap sur l'avenir, and should have a slight edge on paper in the electoral college over the centre-right AD's Jacqueline André-Cormier, vice-president of the territorial council (controlled by AD). Patrick Lebailly is the candidate of PS-affiliated Ensemble pour construire, the party of former senator Karine Claireaux, defeated in 2017 and further weakened by her defeat in Saint-Pierre in 2020. Both Girardin and André-Cormier have said they'd sit in the RDSE group.

New Caledonia (2): Both seats are held by the loyalists (anti-independence), who are quite divided this year. Pierre Frogier (R-LR), a longtime politician, is running for a third term and is now allied with Sonia Backès, secretary of state for citizenship (she is the only cabinet minister running this year) and president of the assembly of the Province Sud, leader of Les Républicains calédoniens and the leading macronista ally in New Caledonia. Interior minister Gérald Darmanin has declared his support for his secretary of state, which isn't a smart move when you're also leading sensitive negotiations for the future political status of the islands. They face another R-LR candidate, Georges Naturel, mayor of Dumbéa, as well as the other incumbent, Calédonie ensemble's Gérard Poadja. The nationalist FLNKS has a single candidate, Lifou mayor Robert Xowie, although there's another independent nationalist candidate.

French citizens abroad (6): The expat seats are elected by a college of 532 electors, largely made up of consular councillors and delegates elected in 2021. The current senators are split 4-2 in the right's favour. This year's electorate is essentially the same as that which voted for the other 6 expat seats in 2021, which split 3-1-2 for the right, macronismo and left respectively. There are 16 lists this year, including seven centrist-macronista lists of various flavours, three far-right lists (one RN, one zemmourista), three right-wing lists including the LR list and three left-wing lists (EELV, PS, LFI). The official LR list is led by senator Ronan Le Gleut, but faces a dissident list led by LR senator Damien Regnard, as well as the ASFE (Alliance solidaire des français de l'étranger) list of incumbent LR-affiliated senator Évelyne Renaud-Garabedian. The ASFE is a clientelistic right-wing party led by wealthy businessman and senator Jean-Pierre Bansard, elected in 2021 despite his 2017 election being invalidated by the ConCouncil for vote buying. In the centre(-right), it's a real mess: the official macronista list is led by Thierry Masson, president of the macronista group in the AFE (the assembly of French expats), but there's also a centrist-MoDem list led by Sophie Suberville, a centre-right list led by Olivia Richard (parliamentary assistant of UDI senator Olivier Cadic), a centrist list led by Hélène Degryse (president of the AFE) plus a few other 'centrist' lists of different kinds. On the left, both PS and EELV can hope to win a seat: the PS list is led by PS incumbent Hélène Conway-Mouret, first elected in 2011, and includes EELV dissidents, while the EELV list is led by Mathilde Ollivier and includes PS incumbent Jean-Yves Leconte and other PS dissidents. The most likely outcome, based on the 2021 results, is 3-1-2 between the right, macronismo and left, but with such an insane number of lists, it's unclear who will win.

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Here is a chart of the makeup of the Senate by groups following each election since 1959 (2023 for now shows the pre-election makeup). The data comes from Laurent de Boissieu's website france-politique.fr

This chart should put the general statement 'the right and centre has controlled the Senate since 1958' into perspective somewhat. The 'socialist left' never controlled the Senate until 2011 and was indeed a very weak minority in the upper house for much of the early decades of the Fifth Republic, but Gaullism was also weak until the institutionalization of the RPR under Chirac in the 1980s. Under the early years of Gaullism, the Senate was of course something of a counter-power, though not really an opposition, to the new Gaullist regime: Gaston Monnerville and Alain Poher opposed the referendums of 1962 and 1969, for example.

The strength of groups made up of 'cadre parties' (partis de notables) is also quite obvious up until the late 1970s/early 1980s.

Notes on some of the former groups:

RI (Républicains indépendants or Républicains et Indépendants) or UREI (Union des républicains et des indépendants) were the largest group from 1959 to 1977. The group was made up of right-wing 'moderates' (CNIP) and later the right-wing liberals (Giscard's RI and later PR). The smaller CRARS (Centre républicain d'action rurale et sociale) and later RIAS (Républicains indépendants d'action sociale) eventually merged into the larger RI/UREI group, and were also made up of right-wing rural 'moderates' and 'independents' (CNIP). The RI group existed until the creation of the UMP, and all but one of its senators joined the new UMP group in the Senate in 2002.

The RP (Républicains Populaires), RPCD (Républicains Populaires et du Centre Démocratique), UCDP (Union Centriste des démocrates de progrès) and UC since 1983 was the Christian democratic (MRP, CD, CDS, UDF etc.) group in the Senate, whose most famous member was undoubtedly Alain Poher (and Jean Lecanuet). It lost over half of its members in 2002 with the creation of the UMP and continued as the group of the UDF, and, after 2007, as a united centrist group included the different microparties of the centrist/centre-right galaxy.

The Gauche démocratique (GD) became the RDE (Rassemblement démocratique et européen) in 1989 and RDSE in 1995 and has, under the Fifth Republic, been the group of the Radical family.

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First round results in 1/2 seat departments elected by majority voting

Jura: Incumbent senator Sylvie Vermeillet (UC-PRV) is reelected in the first round with 57.4%. Clément Pernot (LR), president of the departmental council, is the favourite to win the other seat in the second round, having 33.5% and the other LR candidate (24.5%) withdrawing in his favour. The PS-PCF candidate has 17%, a centrist candidate has 13.8%.

Landes: Unsurprisingly, both PS incumbents are reelected in the first round with 56% and 53.2% respectively. Jean-Luc Lafenêtre, macronista mayor of Maurrin, finished third with 25.4% and LR's candidate won 18.7%.

Loir-et-Cher: Catherine Lhéritier (LR) and Bernard Pillefer (UDI) won the exact same number of votes, 354, or 37.5%. They should be favourites in the runoff. Their main rival is the macronista Jean-Luc Brault, who had 32.8%. The PS candidate Karine Gloanec Maurin had 21.7% and EELV's candidate (17.8%) withdrew in her favour. Christophe Torin, the other centrist-macronista candidate, won 21.2% and has withdrawn. Both incumbents (retiring) were in the UC group so it could be a gain of one for LR.

Haute-Loire: Opposed only by the RN and LFI, incumbents Olivier Cigolotti (UDI) and Laurent Duplomb (LR) are reelected with 79.1% and 74.5% respectively.

Lot: Jean-Marc Vayssouze-Faure (PS), mayor of Cahors, elected in the first round with 63.6%. PS incumbent senator Angèle Préville won only 30.2% and will be alone in an unfavourable second round against Raphaël Daubet (PRV), the preferred candidate of retiring RDSE-Radical senator Jean-Claude Requier, who came close to a first round win with 47%. All other candidates withdrew, including Anne Laporterie (DVG, 19.2%) and the other Radical (PRG) candidate Geneviève Lasfargues (12.6%). So two new senators likely but no change of groups.

Lot-et-Garonne: Inucmbent Christine Bonfanti-Dossat (LR) is first with 42% but the other incumbent, Jean-Pierre Moga (UDI), trails in third with 30% and could be defeated in the second round by the PS' Michel Masset, who has 39.9%. EELV (7.6%) and the PCF (5.6%) withdrew their candidates, but so did RE (12.3%) and another centrist (8.6%). RN won 10.3% and is staying in. So a good chance at a gain for the left.

Lozère: Guylène Pantel (RDSE-PS) reelected with 53.7% against 38.2% for Alain Astruc (DVD), who lost in 2017.

Haute-Marne: Anne-Marie Nédélec (LR) leads with 43.7% and incumbent Bruno Sido (LR) is second with 31.9%. Virginie Gerevic, a DVD mayor, is a strong third with 23.5% and there is a very strong result for the RN, 21.5%, up from 6.9% in 2017. Another DVD mayor has 20%, a PRG candidate has 19.7% and another DVD mayor has 14.5%. Only LFI's candidates (~1%) withdrew so the runoff is quite crowded. LR's incumbents should be favourites but the sole incumbent's weak result, the strong RN result and the strong result of the various DVD mayors suggests that some form of anti-LR mood is brewing among rural electors here.

Mayenne: Élisabeth Doineau (UC-DVC) reelected with 59.6% and LR incumbent Guillaume Chevrollier, with 48.4%, is the clear favourite in a second round against the PS (39.2%) and RN (3.8%). The UDI's candidate (15.7%) withdrew, as did EELV (14.4%).

Meuse: Franck Menonville (LIRT-UDI) is reelected with 77.8%. The other seat, opened by Gérard Longuet's retirement, will be fought between five candidates in the second round, the leading candidates between Jocelyn Antoine (DVD mayor of Senon) with 30.5% and Jean-Christophe Vélain (DVD mayor of Vacherauville) with 25.6%. Not a bad result for the RN (14.1%) who is ahead of the left (12.4%).

Nièvre: Nadia Sollogoub (UC-UDI) easily reelected in the first round with 60.4%. PS incumbent Patrice Joly, who won 43.4% in the first round, is the favourite in a second round against RE deputy Patrice Perrot, who won just 16.8% in the first round. The PS' other candidate (19.8%) withdrew as did the PCF, DVG, EELV and LFI.

Orne: Nathalie Goulet (UC-UDI) is reelected in the first round with 69% but the other incumbent, Vincent Segouin (LR, 35%), is trailing Horizons candidate Olivier Bitz (42.8%) going into the second round, an unexpected pickup opportunity for philippismo (new word I made up). The PS (9.8%) and RN (6.8%) staying in.

Hautes-Pyrénées: Maryse Carrère (RDSE-PRG) and Viviane Artigalas (PS) reelected with 69.3% and 61.7% respectively. A macronista candidate trailed miles behind (15.9%)

Pyrénées-Orientales: LR's candidates Lauriane Josende (44.7%) and incumbent senator Jean Sol (42%) lead the pack, with the PS not very far behind (35.5%). On the other hand, not a particularly good result for the RN here, which was hoping for better - 19%. Both LR candidates should win the second round.

Mayotte: Saïd Omar Oili, centrist mayor of Dzaoudzi, leads the pack with 45.5%, follwed by LR departmental councillor Zaidou Tavandday, with 41.5%. Macronista incumbent Thani Mohamed Soilihi is third with 35.2%. Nadjim Ahamada (centre-right MDM) had 23.1% but withdrew from the second round.
Runoff edit: Saïd Omar Oili elected with 55.7% but Thani Mohamed Soilihi saves his seat, winning 48.9% while LR just went up slightly to 43.5%.

New Caledonia: The first big surprise of these elections: LR dissident Georges Naturel elected in the first round with 63%, and FLNKS candidate Robert Xowie defeated (!) Sonia Backès, secretary of state for citizenship, in the secound round, 55.3% to 44.3%. Backès' ally and LR incumbent Pierre Frogier had 32.1% in the first round and withdrew for her, which was still insufficient. So a very nasty surprise defeat for macronismo and their allies, and a huge surprise victory for the nationalists, despite them being a minority in the electoral college: quite clear that non-nationalists/loyalist electors voted for Xowie against Backès, in an anti-government vote. (Left +1)

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: Former deputy and former cabinet minister Annick Girardin (centrist/centre-left CSA) elected with 20 votes against 17 for Jacqueline Cormier-André (centre-right AD). A change in local partisan label but no change in groups: Girardin will sit in the RDSE group, as did the retiring AD incumbent.

Let's see how the departments with PR go.

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Second round results in remaining 1/2 seat departments:

Jura: Clément Pernot (LR) elected in the second round with 39.2%, with centrist candidate Jean-Daniel Maire not far behind with 32.3%.

Lot: Raphaël Daubet (PRV) defeats the PS incumbent Angèle Préville decisively, 58.9% to 41.1%.

Lot-et-Garonne: While Christine Bonfanti-Dossat (LR) is reelected with 48.1%, the left gains a seat with Michel Massat (PS) winning the second seat with 46.7% against just 32.8% for UDI senator Jean-Pierre Moga. Left +1 (UDI -1)

Haute-Marne: Anne-Marie Nédélec (LR) and Bruno Sido (LR) elected/reelected with 48.5% and 34% respectively in a crowded second round. Virginie Gerevic (DVD) grew her vote to 27.8%, at the expense of the other candidates who lost votes, while the RN dropped by just two votes.

Mayenne: Guillaume Chevrollier (LR) reelected with 53.2% against 44.5% for the PS. The RN dropped to 2.3% from 3.8%, which worked in Chevrollier's favour. A very good result for the left nonetheless.

Meuse: Jocelyne Antoine (DVD) wins the second seat with 42.1% against 32.6% for Jean-Christophe Velain (DVD)

Nièvre: Patrice Joly (PS) reelected with 61.2% against 28.1% for macronista deputy Patrice Perrot.

Orne: LR incumbent Vincent Segouin soundly defeated by Olivier Bitz (Horizons), just 35% against 51.7% for Bitz. Segouin won just ten more votes while Bitz gained 76, with the PS and RN candidates both losing votes from the first round. A real surprise, particularly given that Bitz never held elected office in the region: he was subprefect in Mortagne-au-Perche and before that a PS adjoint in... Strasbourg.

Pyrénées-Orientales: As expected, LR candidates Lauriane Josende and Jean Sol are elected/reelected with 52.9% and 47.2% respectively. The PS won 36.9%, an unexpectedly good result, while the RN dropped to 14.9%, a disappointing result for them.

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Indre-et-Loire
LR 32.4% (1)
Left 27.4% (1 PS)
Horizons 26.6% (1)
RN 7.2%
LFI 6.3%
Left +1 (LR -1)

The left, as expected, gains a seat while Vincent Louault (Horizons), son of retiring UDI senator Pierre Louault, 'holds' the seat for the centre. LR loses a seat, with Isabelle Raimond-Pavero, second on the right's list, losing her seat.

Isère
LR 39.8% (3)
Left 23.4% (1 EELV)
RE 12.4% (1)
DVG 10.6%
RN 4.8%
LFI 4.4%
REC/DVD 3.8%
Right +1 (PS -1)

A bad result for the left, which loses a seat. The DVG (PS dissidents) list led by Jean-Yves Brenier and supported by the president of the Grenoble metro area deprives the united left's list of a second seat, allowing only for the reelection of Guillaume Gontard (the PCF therefore misses out on a seat that it expected to win), and gives a third seat to LR. A result decided by just 40 or so votes.

Loire
LR 33.1% (1)
PS 22.3% (1)
Rochette DVD 17.6% (1)
PCF 17.1% (1)
RN 5.7%
EELV 3.2%
LFI 0.9%

The left saves both of their seats - Cécile Cukierman (PCF) is reelected, just barely (about 10 votes fewer and she'd have lost). On the right, Hervé Raynaud's LR list wins just one seat, a disappointment for a list that seemed to have two seats secured (and eyes on a third). An independent right-wing list led by Pierre-Jean Rochette, DVD mayor of Boën-sur-Lignon and departmental councillor, won 17.6% and one seat, on a platform of 'defending rurality'. He said he'd sit with 'the independents', presumably LIRT, and has denied claims that he is supported by macronismo. A strong result for the PS list as well.

Loire-Atlantique
Left 31.6% (2 - 1 ecolo, 1 PS)
LR-UDI 23.3% (1)
Horizons 21.5% (1)
PS diss. 16.2% (1)
RN 3.7%
LFI 3.7%

The official united left list, led by ecolo senator Ronan Dantec, wins two seats, with the PS dissident list led by the anti-NUPES former president of the dept. council Philippe Grosvalet taking a seat away from them. The right's Laurence Garnier (LR) and Horizons' Joël Guerriau are reelected.  

Loiret
LR 46.3% (2)
Left 26.4% (1)
Horizons 17%
RN 7.6%
LFI 2.7%

LR holds both of its seats with a single united list, which didn't suffer too much from Horizons' centrist list. The left, even without Jean-Pierre Sueur, is able to hold its seat, although its vote is down significantly from 2017 as expected.

Maine-et-Loire
Horizons/centre-right 32.3% (2)
LR-UDI 28.3% (1)
DVG-EELV 18.4% (1)
PS-DVG 12.6%
RN 4.8%
LFI 2.3%
DLF 1.4%

The centre-right list led by incumbent Horizons senator Emmanuel Capus finishes in first with 32% and scores two seats, while the LR-UDI list, with 28%, is reduced to just one seat. Very strong gains for Capus' list from six years ago, growing from 17.8% to over 32%. A strong result for philippismo and Christophe Béchu, former mayor of Angers and now ecological transition minister (and leading members of Horizons). The left saves its seat despite being divided, with the list led by Grégory Blanc (ex-PS) supported by EELV winning quite clearly against the PS list led by Rodolphe Mirande, 350 votes versus 239.

Manche
LR 47.3% (2)
Left 22% (1)
ENS 9%
DVD 6.3%
RN 5.9%
EELV 4.8%
DVC 3.6%
LFI 1.2%

Both LR incumbents easily reelected with their list winning 47% and the left holds its seat with its list winning 22%. Largely similar numbers to 2017.

Marne
LR 43.4% (2)
Horizons 31% (1)
RN 11.9%
Left 10.4%
Ecolo 1.8%
LFI 1.5%

The LR list led by Christian Bruyen, president of the departmental council, wins two seats and 43%, but a very strong result for the Horizons list, led by Cédric Chevalier and supported by Arnaud Robinet (mayor of Reims) and Catherine Vautrin (president of Reims urban community) prevents a repeat of their 3-0 victory in 2017. A very good result for the RN, which gains over 100 votes from 2017 (and finishes ahead of the no-hope left).

Meurthe-et-Moselle:
Right 46.4% (2 - 1 LR, 1 RDSE-PRV)
Left 37.2% (2 - 1 PS, 1 PCF)
RN 7.6%
LFI 4.9%
Ecolo 2.6%
DLF 1.3%
Left +1 (-1 LR, +1 PCF)

Right-wing list with incumbents Jean-François Husson (LR) and Véronique Guillotin (RDSE-PRV) wins 46.4% and 2 seats, while the left-wing PS-PCF benefits from being united, unlike in 2017, and wins two seats, a gain of one, with 37.2%. Strong gains from the RN, from 43 votes in 2017 to 152.

Morbihan
LR 31.2% (1)
Centre-right 25.7% (1)
PS-PCF 19.1% (1)
DVG-EELV 15.7%
RN 5.2%
LFI 2.4%

No major changes here. Muriel Jourda's LR list takes the lead and she holds her seat, while Yves Bleunven's centre-right list, supported by retiring UDI senator Jacques Le Nay, places second with 26%. The left saves its seat despite its divisions, with the seat going to Simon Uzenat, the top candidate of the official PS-PCF list (19.1%), over the DVG-EELV list led by Thérèse Thierry (16%).

Moselle
LR-UDI 31.1% (3)
PS-DVG 13.1% (1)
Herzog DVD 11.8% (1)
Horizons 10.3%
RN 9.9%
DVD 5.6%
DVD 5.1%
DVC 4.3%
PCF-RDG 3.1%
LFI 1.9%

In a very divided field, the LR-UDI list led by senators Jean-Marie Mizzon (UDI) and Catherine Belrhiti (LR) gets lucky and runs away with 3/5 seats on just 31% of the votes. Christine Herzog (DVD) is also reelected with 12% of the vote for her own list. On the left, the PS' list led by Michaël Weber holds the seat for the left with 13%. The other left-wing list is way behind with just 3%. Horizons and RN narrowly missed out on seats - Horizons' list, with 10.3%, was just 3 votes away from a seat. The RN was also not that far off, and they went from 110 votes in 2017 to 275 this year.

Nord
Wattebled DVD 15.6% (2)
PS 14.2% (2)
PCF 11.2% (2)
LR 8.3% (1)
Cambier UDI-DVD 8.3% (1)
RN 7.6% (1)
Horizons 7.1% (1)
Henno UDI-DVD 5.6% (1)
EELV 5.5%
RE 5.2%
PS diss. 5.1%
Waymel DIV 2.2%
DVD 1.8%
LFI 1.6%
RN +1 (LR -1)

Surprises, close wins and close losses in this very crowded field. Dany Wattebled's DVD (LIRT) list, unsurprisingly, finishes first with 15.6% and wins two seats - he was supported by the presidents of Lille metro and the departmental council as well as interior minister Gérald Darmanin and has gained over 450 votes from his election in 2017. The official PS list led by Patrick Kanner and Audrey Linkenheld holds its own fairly well and wins two seats, however senator Martine Filleul's dissident list wins just 5.1% and she's defeated. The PCF, despite losses, surprisingly manages to reelect both of its incumbents (which was quite unexpected), just barely, while EELV misses out on a seat by just 5 votes. LFI, with just 1.6%, was not able to spoil it for the PCF here in the end. On the right, it's a mess: Daubresse's official LR list losses over 200 votes and is reduced to one seat, defeating Brigitte Lherbier. Guislain Cambier's UDI list, supported by retiring UDI senator Valérie Létard, is tied with LR and wins one seat and Olivier Henno (UDI) just barely manages to save his own seat, with his list getting 5.6%, just 5 votes ahead of EELV. For macronismo-philippismo, it's the philippista list of Franck Dhersin, with 7.1%, that gets a seat while macronista incumbent Frédéric Marchand, with 5.2%, is out. With 185 more votes than in 2017, the RN makes its way through the mess and gets one seat.

[Bacon King]

As someone with only a superficial knowledge of French politics I appreciate the in-depth context. You always go above and beyond with the most fascinating and informative threads - I appreciate the hard work, Hash

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thank you for your hard work.

[Hash]

Oise
Paccaud DVD/LR 41.7% (2)
Left 18.2% (1)
Courtial DVD/LR 16% (1)
Bascher LR 11.6%
RN 6.3%
ENS 3.2%
LFI 1.6%
DVC 1.5%

No changes here, but the list led by LR incumbent Olivier Paccaud ends up way ahead with 42% and gets two seats. Édouard Courtial's list saves his own seat, with 16%, but Jérôme Bascher is defeated with his LR list getting only 12%. The left holds its seat with 18.2%. Not quite sure why Paccaud's list ended up so far ahead: Courtial's list was more macronista-leaning, with Horizons and MoDem members on his list and a former ally of Éric Woerth as well, which may have put off anti-government right-wingers.

Pas-de-Calais
LR-UDI 26% (2)
PCF-DVG 25.2% (2)
RN 14.1% (1)
PS 14.1% (1)
ENS 12.2% (1)
DVC 3.7%
EELV 3.4%
LFI 1.3%
RN +1 (RDPI -1)

The LR-UDI list of senators Jean-François Rapin (LR) and Amel Gacquerre (UDI) wins a strong result, 26%, and holds both of its seat. The surprise on the left is the strong performance of the PCF list of incumbent senators Cathy Apourceau-Poly (PCF) and Jean-Pierre Corbisez (RDSE-DVG) which wins 25.2%, not far behind the right, slightly outperforming the separate totals of the PCF and Corbisez lists in 2017. On the other hand, the PS loses over 300 votes and is reduced to 1 seat (defeating PS incumbent Sabine Van Heghe who was second on the list). Jean-Marie Vanlerenberghe (MoDem) wins reelection but his list is down 46 votes from 2017. The RN wins 557 votes (14.1%), nearly 300 more votes than in 2017, and wins a seat in Panzergirl's stronghold.

Puy-de-Dôme
Left 33.8% (1)
Gold DVG/RDSE 24.2% (1)
LR 24.1% (1)
UDI 8.9%
DIV 3%
LFI 3%
RN 3%

No changes. Marion Canalès' united left leads the race with 34%, up significantly from 2017 (when there was a separate PCF list). Éric Gold, the RDSE centre-leftist (ex-macronista), secures reelection with over 100 more votes than in 2017, while the right's list led by senator Jean-Marc Boyer (on which Brice Hortefeux was third) is third and holds its seat.

Pyrénées-Atlantiques
PS 33.8% (1)
LR 30.8% (1)
MoDem 20.2% (1)
EELV 5.5%
REC-DLF 2.3%
RN 2.1%
DIV 1.6%
LFI 1.2%

All three incumbents reelected atop their own lists. Frédérique Espagnac (PS) places first with 34%, while Max Brison's LR list improves significantly, from 17.4% to 30.8%. The MoDem is down a bit to 20% but holds its seat.

Paris
Left 54.6% (8 - 4 PS/DVG, 3 EELV, 1 PCF)
LR 19.5% (3)
Evren LR diss. 11.6% (1)
ENS 6%
Charon LR diss. 5.8%
LFI 2.2%
Left +1 (RDPI -1)

The united left's ambitious target was met: with 54.6%, the left wins 8 seats. The official LR list led by Catherine Dumas, backed by Rachida Dati, wins three seats, with 19.5%. As expected, Agnès Evren's LR dissident list also wins a seat, winning 11.6%. However, macronismo is shut out in the capital, as they feared: Julien Bargeton's macronista list wins just 6%, down from 11.3% in 2017. Pierre Charon, the other LR dissident, loses his seat too - his list wins just 6%, suffering from the lack of elected officials on his list besides himself (these 'civil society' lists don't work in senatorial elections in cities).

Seine-et-Marne
LR 35.2% (2)
Left 23.6% (2 - 1 PS, 1 PCF)
Horizons 14.6% (1)
RN 13% (1)
DVC 5.4%
LFI 4%
DVD 3%
RN +1, Left +1 (UC -1, LR -1)

Surprises here: the LR list falls from 42.2% to 35.2% and loses one of its three incumbents, while the united left gets 24% and two seats, reaping the benefits of a single list (against separate PS and PCF lists in 2017). The real surprise is the RN also getting through here: with 413 votes, or 13%, it's up over 300 votes from 2017 and it clearly hurt the right. This department was totally not on the cards for the far-right, but does follow the party's strong results here in 2022. Horizons' Louis Vogel wins a seat as expected but his 14.6% is down from macronismo's 23% six years ago.

Yvelines
LR-UDI 57.9% (4)
ENS 14.9% (1)
Left 13.3% (1 - 1 EELV)
RN 5.9%
LFI 3.1%
Left +1 (LR -1)

A setback for Gérard Larcher, who not only misses out on a 'grand slam' but actually loses a seat to the left. Larcher's list wins 57.9%, virtually identical to his 2017 result, but the left reaps the benefits of unity - its list gets 13.3% whereas in 2017 they were split between three lists (which, incidentally, also won 13.3% added together). Macronismo also holds its seat and improves its result a bit from 12.6% to 14.9%.

Essonne
UDI 27.5% (2)
Left 23.8% (1)
LR 18.4% (1)
Hugonet LR diss. 12.1% (1)
ENS 9.3%
LFI 4.6%
RN 3.9%
Left +1 (UC -1)

A disappointment for the left results in the reelection of all four LR/UDI incumbents. Vincent Delahaye's UDI leads, like in 2017, with 27.5% and holds its two seats. The left is second with about 24%, but misses out on a second seat by just 9 votes, largely courtesy of LFI spoiling it for them. The PCF is the victim here (they were second on the PS-led list), so LFI must be happy about that. The LR incumbents, running separately with their own lists, are both reelected: Laure Darcos (who apparently is the great-granddaughter of general Boulanger's son-in-law) wins 18.4% and Jean-Raymond Hugonet, with 12%, is the happy beneficiary of the left falling short of a second seat. The macronista list led by MoDem incumbent Daphné Ract-Madoux loses, in fifth place with 9%.

Hauts-de-Seine
LR 26.9% (2)
UDI 19% (2)
Left 18.9% (1)
ENS 18% (1)
Aeschlimann LR diss. 12.4% (1)
LFI 2.4%
RN 1.7%

A bad result for LR here benefits Hervé Marseille's UDI list, which gets a second seat (just barely), while the left misses out on a second seat (just barely), thanks to LFI. Roger Karoutchi's LR list wins 27%, a very poor result (in 2017 the official LR list led by Karoutchi and the dissident list led by Philippe Pemezec won 925 votes, the single LR list is down to 626) which results in the defeat of LR incumbent Philippe Pemezec (good riddance to trash!) as well as Crooked Joëlle Ceccaldi-Raynaud. Marie-Do Aeschlimann wins a seat for herself, her dissident list gets 12.4%, which is a very solid result. Hervé Marseille's UDI list gets 19%, up from 14.3%, and carries his second candidate, the MoDem's Isabelle Florennes, over with him -- but just barely. The UDI list with 441 votes is just 2 votes ahead of the left's list (439 votes), which is held to just one seat (the PCF's incumbent, Pierre Ouzoulias). As in the 91, LFI is to blame, though here EELV is the victim. Somewhat surprisingly, Xavier Iacovelli (RE) is reelected very nicely, with 18% vs. just 9.6% in 2017.

Seine-Saint-Denis
PS-EELV 22.9% (2 - 2 PS)
LR 21.1% (1)
UDI 18.3% (1)
PCF 17.9% (1)
PRG-DVG 10.8% (1)
LFI 3.2%
RN 2.3%
DVD 1.3%
Left +1 (LR -1)

An unexpectedly bad result for LR has them lose one seat, while the left regains one. Corinne Narassiguin's PS list with 23% and wins two seats (both for the PS), a gain of one. As expected, the PCF loses its second seat, although its result is not very different from six years ago. LR is down to 21.1% and loses its second seat to a PRG/DVG list led by Ahmed Laouedj (that nobody seems to have seen coming) which won 10.8%, winning a seat by just 13 votes. Vincent Capo-Canellas (UDI) reelected with 18.3%.

Val-de-Marne
LR 34.8% (2)
Left 25.6% (2 - 1 PCF, 1 PS)
UDI 20.3% (1)
PS diss.-EELV 11.9% (1)
LFI 4.2%
RN 2.2%

Disaster averted for the left. The left retains 3/6 seats despite its divisions, and LR narrowly misses out on the third seat it wanted. LR wins 34.8%, up from 2017, but just holds its two seats. The PCF-led left list, with 25.6%, has enough for two seats, which reelects the PCF incumbent and PS senator Laurence Rossignol who carpetbagged her way to the 94 from the Oise. The PS dissident list, allied with EELV, led by Akli Mellouli, wins 12% and wins a seat, depriving LR of a third seat by just 20 or so votes. The UDI list led by Laurent Lafon gains substantially (13.8% > 20.3%) but stays at one seat.

Val-d'Oise
LR 25% (2)
PS 18.9% (1)
Fargeot DVD 14% (1)
PCF-LFI 11.6% (1)
ENS 11.5%
REC 11.5%
RN 6.9%
Left +1 (LR -1)

A surprise for the (radical) left here. LR's list led by its two incumbents Arnaud Bazin and Jacqueline Eustache-Brinio are first with 25%, down from 31.5% in 2017, and holds two seats (this means Georges Mothron, LR mayor of Argenteuil, is defeated). A localist DVD list led by Daniel Fargeot, mayor of Andilly and president of the union of mayors of the Val-d'Oise, wins one seat with 14% The PS' Rachid Temal with 18.9% holds his seat without much trouble. The last seat is an incredible three-way tie: with 262 votes, the seat goes to a PCF-LFI list led by Pierre Barros, mayor of Fosses (which I didn't see coming), ahead of macronista incumbent Alain Richard (260 votes) and zemmourista (ex-LR) incumbent Sébastien Meurant (259 votes). With such a narrow result, the outcome will likely be challenged.

La Réunion
LR-UDI 35.9% (2 - 1 LR, 1 UDI)
PS 25.3% (1)
PLR 21.6% (1)
DVD-RN 6%
ENS 5.3%
DVC 2.9%
DVD 2.3%
Left +2 (RDPI -1, LIRT -1)

The left comes back in force with two seats. The LR-UDI list led by LR senator Viviane Malet wins 36%, down from 58% in 2017, and loses one seat (goodbye to UDI senator Nassimah Dindar). The two left-wing lists each win a seat: Audrey Bélim's PS list (25.3%) and Évelyne Corbière's PLR list, supported by LFI/NUPES (21.6%). Corbière should sit in the CRC group. A poor result for the macronista list of former senator Michel Vergoz, just 5%, behind a RN-adjacent DVD list.

Guadeloupe
GUSR/DVC 38.2% (2)
PS 23% (1)
FRAPP/DVG 15.7%
Sapotille PS diss. 13.5%
Jasmin PS diss. 8%
DVG 1%
Centre +1 (PS -1)

The GUSR (RDPI) list led by incumbent Dominique Théophile is the winner, with 38% (up from 28.7%) and gets a second seat, the result of GUSR's gains in 2020 and 2021 on the island. PS senator Victorin Lurel is reelected with 23%, but Victoire Jasmin, the other PS incumbent, is badly defeated, just 8%, and behind Lamentin mayor Jocelyn Sapotille (13.5%) and a DVG list supported by Éric Jalton, mayor of Les Abymes (15.7%).

Martinique
Incumbent (PS-affiliated) Catherine Conconne reelected in R1 with 73.5% so I was completely wrong. Fréderic Buval, mayor of La Trinité, supported by the PPM-led territorial majority, elected in the second round with 51.9% after the majority's other candidate withdrew after the first round. In the second round, Yvon Pacquit, a PPM dissident, won 22.4% and Richard Barthéléry, of the nationalist Péyi-A, won 18.4%. I assume both will still sit in the Socialist group.

Expats
ASFE/DVD 19.6% (2)
LR 14.6% (1)
EELV 14% (1)
PS 13.8% (1)
UDI 10.9% (1)
RE 9%
MoDem 7.7%
LFI 2.5%
Degryse DVC 2.3%
Regnard LR diss. 2.1%

A real mess but splitting roughly as expected 4-2 for the right. The winner is the ASFE (LR-adjacent) list of incumbent senator Évelyne Renaud-Garabedian with nearly 20%, with 7 more votes that Crooked Jean-Pierre Bansard's ASFE list in 2021. The official LR list led by Ronan Le Gleut wins just one seat, with 76 votes (105 for the official LR list in 2017). The other LR incumbent, running as a dissident, Damien Regnard, is way behind with just 2%. EELV's list wins 73 votes (-7 from 2021) and the PS list, led by senator Hélène Conway-Mouret, wins 72 votes. EELV's senator-elect Mathilde Ollivier, born in June 1994, becomes the youngest senator, just a month younger than 29-year-old PS senator Rémi Cardon elected in 2020 (the minimum age for senators was reduced to 24 in 2011). The UDI gains a seat with Olivia Richard, parliamentary assistant of UDI senator Olivier Cadic (expat senator in the other batch), winning 57 votes, likely getting a nice chunk of Cadic's 80 votes from 2021. Macronismo is shut out: the official macronista list is just behind Richard's UDI list, with 9%, and the MoDem list is at 7.7%.


A result I forgot to mention earlier: in Loir-et-Cher, in the second round, Bernard Pillefer (UDI) is elected with 43.4% but macronista Jean-Luc Brault is elected with 44.7%, ahead of LR's Catherine Lheritier (40.7%). The withdrawal of another centrist candidate, Christophe Thorin, helped Brault.

[Hash]

I will have some more analysis tomorrow (why do I care so much about this?) and do some math, but overall the left has seen some small but notable gains that bring it further over the line of 100 senators by a bit, slowly digging their way out of the post-2017 ditch that had them below 100 seats, but still quite some ways behind their 2014 standings, when they lost control. The PS and EELV groups are the main beneficiaries but the Communists had a pretty good day as well, despite losing seats in the 93/94 and missing out in 38/91 (the CRC group had a very tough batch to defend but held up better than expected, so it could have been a lot worse for them). LFI was irrelevant everywhere but they did cost the left at least 2-3 seats - the LFI's own egotistical reaction claims that 'NUPES lists' with them could have gained an additional 10 seats, but this is largely nonsense (and obviously NUPES lists with LFI would have been toxic to more than a few electors and would have led to a lot more anti-NUPES dissident lists).

On the other hand, the 'senatorial majority' (LR-UDI) has some pretty significant net losses but still retains a very big majority. Both LR and UC groups are down, especially LR which could be looking at a net loss of 7 from numbers I've seen online.

Macronismo itself had rather poor results on the whole, despite some occasional bright spots in certain departments, and the RDPI group should be down a few seats in the end. On the other hand, right-macronismo or philippismo, increasingly its own thing and largely aligned with the LR-UDI 'senatorial majority', did better and its group, LIRT, should grow. On the whole that should be close to a draw for the 'presidential majority' coalition.

The RN did well in the most difficult elections for them and makes it return to the Senate with 3 seats, the most it's ever had (the previous record was two in 2014). Basically everywhere the RN candidates/lists gained, in spite of the RN's poor results in the 2020 municipal elections (they lost over 670 councillors in communes of more than 1,000 people), which shows that more and more electors - presumably right-leaning (but with no partisan affiliation) councillors from smaller towns and villages in rural regions, particularly in departments where the RN is strong and increasingly well rooted locally - are voting for the RN in senatorial elections. Outside of three departments, those gains were still not enough for seats (it did come close to a fourth in Moselle though as mentioned). I'll take a look at the RN's gains from 2017 tomorrow.

Congratulations to Gégé on his reelection, btw

[Hash]

RN results in 2017 and 2022 (departments where they won seats highlighted)



Gains in every department where they had candidates except for the Val-de-Marne (not sure what happened there). Particularly big gains in percentage share terms in Haute-Marne and Pyrénées-Orientales (double-digits) as well as Meuse and Seine-et-Marne. All are departments where the RN is very strong in national elections (all elected at least one RN deputy in 2022), and the Pyrénées-Orientales includes Perpignan, the largest municipality controlled by the RN since 2020. All except the Pyrénées-Orientales are departments where the electoral college is heavily right-wing and overrepresents rural communes, with very blurred boundaries between the right (particularly the 'DVD' mayors and councillors who make up a big share of electoral colleges) and the far-right in practice.

[Oliver]

There were 2 881 departmental electoral college members (Grands électeurs) to elect the new Senators of Paris.

How many delegates of the municipal councils were elected to the electoral college for Paris? Are the elected by the city council and district councils of Paris?

Where can I find any information about the political affiliation of those electoral college members in Paris and other departments?

[snip]

[Hash]

There were 2 881 departmental electoral college members (Grands électeurs) to elect the new Senators of Paris.

How many delegates of the municipal councils were elected to the electoral college for Paris? Are the elected by the city council and district councils of Paris?

Where can I find any information about the political affiliation of those electoral college members in Paris and other departments?

[snip]

The electoral college in Paris is made up of deputies (18), senators (12), regional councillors (44), the entirety of the city council (163) and additional delegates elected by the members of the city council (2,644) in June.

The prefecture has a list of the names of the members of the electoral college, but you won't find their political affiliation. Not that it'd be of much use: outside of Paris and the Petite Couronne departments, most electors are from smaller towns and villages' municipal councils whose councillors, as I wrote in my first post, tend to be more apolitical, or at least without clear partisan loyalties. You could get a very rough idea of the political makeup of electoral colleges by looking at the results of the 2020 municipal elections in every commune, but you'd soon get lost in a sea of 'DVD/DVG/DVC/DIV' labels and doing so also requires that one trusts the labels assigned to lists by the Interior ministry, which nobody should.

For Paris, the additional delegates were elected in June by the council and the results were as follows:

PS and allies: 53 votes > 866 delegates
LR and allies: 39 > 637
EELV and allies: 27 > 441
Agnès Evren LR: 16 > 261
PCF: 13 > 212
RE, Horizons: 6 > 98
MoDem: 5 > 81
G.s: 1 > 16
LFI: 1 > 16
Other > 1 > 16
(162 valid votes, 1 blank vote)

[Hash]

To wrap this up, the final numbers of the groups:

LR 133 (-12)
SER 64 (nc)
UC 56 (-1)
RDPI 22 (-2)
CRCE-Kanaky 18 (+3)
LIRT 18 (+4)
EST 17 (+5)
RDSE 16 (+2)
RASNAG 4 (+1)

The three left-wing groups add up to 99 seats, in addition to the left-wingers who sit in the RDSE group. The 'senatorial majority' (LR-UDI-LIRT) has 207 seats.

Yesterday, national treasure Gérard Larcher was re-elected to a fifth term as president of the Senate with 218 votes against 64 for Kanner (PS), 20 for Cukierman (PCF) and 18 Gontard (EELV), with 22 blank votes from macronismo and 6 invalid votes.

In terms of group makeups, not too many surprises and the general direction is as expected from election day. LR is down by a bit more than anticipated. The Socialist group (SER) remains unchanged at 64. The centrist group (UC) is only down by one. The macronista RDPI is down two. The Communist (CRCE) and green (EST) groups are the big winners on the left, up 3 and 5 respectively, confirming how unexpectedly good this election was for the CRCE group. The centre-right LIRT gains four, the venerable RDSE is also up two. The non-inscrits (RASNAG) are now, for the first time ever, exclusively far-right (Ravier and the three new RN).

Among the interesting or unexpected affiliations:

Édouard Courtial, re-elected in the Oise, has left LR and joined the UC group. Courtial, close to Sarkozy, has grown increasingly close to macronismo and favours an LR-macronismo coalition. His list this year included candidates from the MoDem and Horizons. Laure Darcos, re-elected in the Essonne, also left LR and joined the LIRT group, particularly embittered by the way the party handled the elections in her department.

The RDPI group got the surprise membership of the purportedly left-wing Frédéric Buval, elected in Martinique, the second candidate on the right-wing list in La Réunion (Stéphane Fouassin) as well as Olivier Bitz, elected in the Oise but labelled as Horizons. As a fun fact, 10 of the group's 22 members are from the overseas, which is quite amusing when you consider how terribly Macron performed there in 2022.

For the Communists, Jean-Pierre Corbisez (DVG), re-elected in the Pas-de-Calais on the PCF list left the RDSE group to sit with the Communists. New Caledonian nationalist Robert Xowie (UC-FLNKS) joined the group and has clearly gotten a very good deal: he got the group renamed to Groupe communiste républicain citoyen et écologiste - Kanaky (Kanaky being the Kanak nationalist name for New Caledonia). It's really not often that a single member is able to change the name of their parliamentary group...

The greens group (EST) get, as expected, Val-de-Marne PS dissident Akli Mellouli (elected with EELV support) and Maine-et-Loire's Grégory Blanc, also elected with EELV support.

The LIRT group continues to grow, with Horizons' new senators as well as Laure Darcos (see above), Pierre-Jean Rochette (elected in the Loire with an independent right-wing list) and Jean-Luc Brault (elected in Loir-et-Cher though presumed to be macronista-RE), although with Franck Menonville (Meuse), who has preferred to join the UC group this time.

The RDSE includes Philippe Grosvalet (elected in Loire-Atlantique as a PS dissident), Michel Masset (elected in Lot-et-Garonne but expected to join the PS group) and Ahmed Laouedj (surprise PRG winner in Seine-Saint-Denis). The RDSE continues to be a refuge for PS dissidents, renegades and outcasts (your daily reminder that Jean-Noël Guérini is still a senator). By my count, about ~10-11 of the members are left-wing (PRG, PS, DVG) and five and right-wing (PRV), but the 'left-wing' senators in the group don't really vote as a bloc with the rest of the left -- for example, on the pension reform, the group split with 8 against and three in favour (3 abstentions).

My updated chart:



Thank you for following me along on this very unexciting election. See you in three years.