Trump v Obama 2012

[Samof94]

What if Trump had run 4 years early?

[Vice President Christian Man]

Ohio and North Carolina would flip, Iowa would probably flip and Florida would be closer (possibly approaching 2000 margins) although Obama was an incumbent so he would've been favored. I doubt any STS would happen since he wasn't an incumbent but if anything this would solidify Trump's status as the frontrunner in 2016, particularly if he's successful in recruiting America-first populists during the 2014 midterms.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Obama adds North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona to the states he wins in real life.

[dw93]

Obama adds North Carolina and possibly Georgia while Arizona, IA, OH, and FL are closer than they were with Romney as the Republican nominee.

[EternalOptimistPopulist]

You could say the Trump of 2012 isn't as strong of a candidate as Trump of 2016. What happened between 2013 and 2016 was what really helped make Trump a serious political figure, like the 2014 riots in Ferguson, SCOTUS ruling on same-sex marriage, rise of ISIS, etc. Trump would've tapped into voters frustrations more effectively than Romney did, but WWC voters in states like WI, MI, PA that went for Trump in 2016 wouldn't be for lack of a better term "betrayed" by Obama in 2012 as in 2016.

[oldtimer]

You could say the Trump of 2012 isn't as strong of a candidate as Trump of 2016. What happened between 2013 and 2016 was what really helped make Trump a serious political figure, like the 2014 riots in Ferguson, SCOTUS ruling on same-sex marriage, rise of ISIS, etc. Trump would've tapped into voters frustrations more effectively than Romney did, but WWC voters in states like WI, MI, PA that went for Trump in 2016 wouldn't be for lack of a better term "betrayed" by Obama in 2012 as in 2016.

On the other hand unemployment was higher in 2012.
But Trump might not have won the 2012 GOP primary, the share of the WWC within the Republican party was lower then.

[Del Tachi]

Same as OTL, except maybe IA/OH. 

[Mr. Smith]

See 2012, except with NC and Florida reversed.

Trump could be painted just as much as Romney as elitist and out of touch, it only didn't work in 2016 because Hillary didn't even try that approach...notably Biden did, but the damage was done by that point.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I tried a timeline on this once.

The basic path to a Trump victory in 2012 would involve the following.

1. Failure at Abottabad: The raid fails after Seal Team Six's helicopter crashes, or is shot down, or whatever. Osama escapes into the Waziristan region, and the country is furious at the tragedy.

2. Emboldened by Obama's weakness, more candidates enter the presidential race. This includes Huckabee, Trump, maybe Mitch Daniels, plus a few other minor candidates like Pataki or Bolton. This further divides the anti-Trump wing of the party.

3. The Republicans hold out against Obama in regards to the fiscal cliff, causing America to default and a credit downgrade that reignites the recession.