Is North Carolina the next Wisconsin?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is North Carolina the next Wisconsin? A state that basically becomes a permanent single-party GOP state despite being a close battleground?

[SnowLabrador]

I voted Yes, but NC was already a semi-autocracy before WI was.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC has a history of being horrifically gerrymandered. How else would the GOP have a supermajority when the state votes essentially 50/50 or 51/49

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I voted Yes, but NC was already a semi-autocracy before WI was.

Yea if anything Wisconsin modeled itself after NC. NC stripped Cooper of all effective power years before Wisconsin did it to Evers

[Tekken_Guy]

I voted Yes, but NC was already a semi-autocracy before WI was.

Yea if anything Wisconsin modeled itself after NC. NC stripped Cooper of all effective power years before Wisconsin did it to Evers

I think what really changed WI's trajectory is when Democrats started to win. Democrats not named Obama, Baldwin, and LaFollette lost almost every major race from 2010 until 2018. Then fortunes really began to reverse afterwards.

IMO, North Carolina is going the way of Georgia, at a slower pace but with less downballot lag. I think by the end of the decade, both are going to be true swing states moving in Democratic directions, rather than NC's Titanium Tilt R or GA's "pro-Republican, anti-Trump" phase.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In some sense yes, especially since NC politically geography also seems to be becoming an increasing problem for NC Dems as they pack more into lopsided and high turnout urban seats. Most suburban communities have already flipped to Dems in NC, so even if they make further suburban gains won't really matter when it comes to seats, but Rs have been and are likely to continue peeling off a lot of rural 30-50% black seats in eastern NC as rural whites become more polarized.

[Tekken_Guy]

In some sense yes, especially since NC politically geography also seems to be becoming an increasing problem for NC Dems as they pack more into lopsided and high turnout urban seats. Most suburban communities have already flipped to Dems in NC, so even if they make further suburban gains won't really matter when it comes to seats, but Rs have been and are likely to continue peeling off a lot of rural 30-50% black seats in eastern NC as rural whites become more polarized.

Republicans already peeled off pretty much all those eastern NC seats in 2022. The good news for Democrats is that Republicans have zero room for error on their supermajorities in both chambers. They can break the house one solely through gains in Wake and Mecklenburg, and just need to peel off a seat in New Hanover to break it in the Senate.

The goal for Democrats over the next decade:
-Flip the state for Biden in 2024 and/or the Democrat in 2028
-Elect Josh Stein as governor in 2024, and re-elect him in 2028.
-Flip the Lt. Governor’s office, and hold SOS and AG
-Beat Tillis in 2026 and Budd in 2028.
-Keep the Republicans from getting supermajorities in at least one chamber
-Win as many judicial races as possible. If they have at least 1 Supreme Court seat left by 2028’s election, they can flip the court by sweeping the race. If they have at least 2 they can afford to lose 1.

[Mr.Phips]

In some sense yes, especially since NC politically geography also seems to be becoming an increasing problem for NC Dems as they pack more into lopsided and high turnout urban seats. Most suburban communities have already flipped to Dems in NC, so even if they make further suburban gains won't really matter when it comes to seats, but Rs have been and are likely to continue peeling off a lot of rural 30-50% black seats in eastern NC as rural whites become more polarized.

Republicans already peeled off pretty much all those eastern NC seats in 2022. The good news for Democrats is that Republicans have zero room for error on their supermajorities in both chambers. They can break the house one solely through gains in Wake and Mecklenburg, and just need to peel off a seat in New Hanover to break it in the Senate.

The goal for Democrats over the next decade:
-Flip the state for Biden in 2024 and/or the Democrat in 2028
-Elect Josh Stein as governor in 2024, and re-elect him in 2028.
-Flip the Lt. Governor’s office, and hold SOS and AG
-Beat Tillis in 2026 and Budd in 2028.
-Keep the Republicans from getting supermajorities in at least one chamber
-Win as many judicial races as possible. If they have at least 1 Supreme Court seat left by 2028’s election, they can flip the court by sweeping the race. If they have at least 2 they can afford to lose 1.

Dems should have never lost the New Hanover senate seat in the first place in 2020.  Biden won it and Dems had an incumbent running.

[Tekken_Guy]

In some sense yes, especially since NC politically geography also seems to be becoming an increasing problem for NC Dems as they pack more into lopsided and high turnout urban seats. Most suburban communities have already flipped to Dems in NC, so even if they make further suburban gains won't really matter when it comes to seats, but Rs have been and are likely to continue peeling off a lot of rural 30-50% black seats in eastern NC as rural whites become more polarized.

Republicans already peeled off pretty much all those eastern NC seats in 2022. The good news for Democrats is that Republicans have zero room for error on their supermajorities in both chambers. They can break the house one solely through gains in Wake and Mecklenburg, and just need to peel off a seat in New Hanover to break it in the Senate.

The goal for Democrats over the next decade:
-Flip the state for Biden in 2024 and/or the Democrat in 2028
-Elect Josh Stein as governor in 2024, and re-elect him in 2028.
-Flip the Lt. Governor’s office, and hold SOS and AG
-Beat Tillis in 2026 and Budd in 2028.
-Keep the Republicans from getting supermajorities in at least one chamber
-Win as many judicial races as possible. If they have at least 1 Supreme Court seat left by 2028’s election, they can flip the court by sweeping the race. If they have at least 2 they can afford to lose 1.

Dems should have never lost the New Hanover senate seat in the first place in 2020.  Biden won it and Dems had an incumbent running.

The Republican was the popular long-time former incumbent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, it's a swing state

[Mr.Phips]

In some sense yes, especially since NC politically geography also seems to be becoming an increasing problem for NC Dems as they pack more into lopsided and high turnout urban seats. Most suburban communities have already flipped to Dems in NC, so even if they make further suburban gains won't really matter when it comes to seats, but Rs have been and are likely to continue peeling off a lot of rural 30-50% black seats in eastern NC as rural whites become more polarized.

Republicans already peeled off pretty much all those eastern NC seats in 2022. The good news for Democrats is that Republicans have zero room for error on their supermajorities in both chambers. They can break the house one solely through gains in Wake and Mecklenburg, and just need to peel off a seat in New Hanover to break it in the Senate.

The goal for Democrats over the next decade:
-Flip the state for Biden in 2024 and/or the Democrat in 2028
-Elect Josh Stein as governor in 2024, and re-elect him in 2028.
-Flip the Lt. Governor’s office, and hold SOS and AG
-Beat Tillis in 2026 and Budd in 2028.
-Keep the Republicans from getting supermajorities in at least one chamber
-Win as many judicial races as possible. If they have at least 1 Supreme Court seat left by 2028’s election, they can flip the court by sweeping the race. If they have at least 2 they can afford to lose 1.

Dems should have never lost the New Hanover senate seat in the first place in 2020.  Biden won it and Dems had an incumbent running.

The Republican was the popular long-time former incumbent.

Was he particularly popular?  He was only first elected in 2014 and only won around 55% of the vote then and in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK and NC are patriotic with Biden we won NC with Obama and Biden 2008 and AK and AK 2014/22

That's why Biden is within 4 and Cooper won in 20