CO-4: Boebert in hot water again (1/7)

[Tekken_Guy]

Watch as she loses the primary.

Why? It seems like she's the perfect match for the Republican base.

Because there are other candidates just like her running actually from CO-04.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/TwentyOneCity/status/1740303105336672328
https://twitter.com/TwentyOneCity/status/1740303107484201291

[Progressive Pessimist]

Now we'll never be rid of her...

[Tekken_Guy]

Now we'll never be rid of her...

Yes we will. She'd be a shoo-in for the general (though a staunch underperformer still) but her chances of winning the primary in CO-04 are negligible.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1740173695505867235?t=A_LseURomNYelJtbVP2b...
Boebert to carpetbag to CO-04 despite living west of Rockies. On one hand, this means she isn't going to be the incumbent in CO-03 which improves GOP prospects.  On the other hand, Frisch already has an absurd amount of money for a congressional race, especially an open seat.

In CO-04, we'll see if the GOP rolls over for her national image, especially since residency and the handjob incident are good nonideological points of attack for fellow conservatives.

She's literally carpetbagging to a district all the way across the state. And last year, as the incumbent, she didn't win renomination by even two-to-one. I don't think she's going to succeed in this.

Btw, what is this "handjob incident?"

[Samof94]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1740173695505867235?t=A_LseURomNYelJtbVP2b...
Boebert to carpetbag to CO-04 despite living west of Rockies. On one hand, this means she isn't going to be the incumbent in CO-03 which improves GOP prospects.  On the other hand, Frisch already has an absurd amount of money for a congressional race, especially an open seat.

In CO-04, we'll see if the GOP rolls over for her national image, especially since residency and the handjob incident are good nonideological points of attack for fellow conservatives.

She's literally carpetbagging to a district all the way across the state. And last year, as the incumbent, she didn't win renomination by even two-to-one. I don't think she's going to succeed in this.

Btw, what is this "handjob incident?"

This grandmother "south of 40" was giving a handjob to a guy at a showing of Beetlejuice in Denver.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1740173695505867235?t=A_LseURomNYelJtbVP2b...
Boebert to carpetbag to CO-04 despite living west of Rockies. On one hand, this means she isn't going to be the incumbent in CO-03 which improves GOP prospects.  On the other hand, Frisch already has an absurd amount of money for a congressional race, especially an open seat.

In CO-04, we'll see if the GOP rolls over for her national image, especially since residency and the handjob incident are good nonideological points of attack for fellow conservatives.

She's literally carpetbagging to a district all the way across the state. And last year, as the incumbent, she didn't win renomination by even two-to-one. I don't think she's going to succeed in this.

Btw, what is this "handjob incident?"

This grandmother "south of 40" was giving a handjob to a guy at a showing of Beetlejuice in Denver.

Oh yeah I remember seeing a thread on that incident. I hadn't realized it was a handjob though, lmao.

[Atlas Force]

Watch as she loses the primary.

Why? It seems like she's the perfect match for the Republican base.

Now we'll never be rid of her...

There's a chance she won't even make the primary ballot:

Candidates can try to reach the primary in one of two ways: either by winning the support of at least 30% of the delegates at their party's biennial convention (also known locally as an "assembly") or by collecting the requisite 1,500 signatures. State law requires that conventions take place "no later than 73 days before the primary," while the deadline to turn in petitions is March 19.

Campaigns can also opt to try both methods, but doing so still doesn't offer a guarantee. If a candidate takes less than 10% of the vote at the convention, then their campaign is over no matter how many signatures they turn in. And both of these routes carry risk, something that another member of the state's GOP delegation almost learned the hard way in back-to-back election cycles.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That signature goal is so low she's probably better off not even trying for the convention. Whether she's smart enough to realize that remains to be seen.

[Tekken_Guy]

That signature goal is so low she's probably better off not even trying for the convention. Whether she's smart enough to realize that remains to be seen.

I’m thinking a bigger problem is winning the actual primary. CO-04, unlike CO-03, is not a district favorable to Trumpy firebrands like Boebert and heavily favors more traditional conservative politicians.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

That signature goal is so low she's probably better off not even trying for the convention. Whether she's smart enough to realize that remains to be seen.

I’m thinking a bigger problem is winning the actual primary. CO-04, unlike CO-03, is not a district favorable to Trumpy firebrands like Boebert and heavily favors more traditional conservative politicians.

I'm not really sure this is true. There are other reasons to think that Boebert herself is not a great fit but I don't see why a Trumpy candidate would be at a disadvantage here. Buck himself was fairly Trumpy before 2020 and he was pro-Trump as state GOP chairman (again, pre-2020).

[Tekken_Guy]

That signature goal is so low she's probably better off not even trying for the convention. Whether she's smart enough to realize that remains to be seen.

I’m thinking a bigger problem is winning the actual primary. CO-04, unlike CO-03, is not a district favorable to Trumpy firebrands like Boebert and heavily favors more traditional conservative politicians.

I'm not really sure this is true. There are other reasons to think that Boebert herself is not a great fit but I don't see why a Trumpy candidate would be at a disadvantage here. Buck himself was fairly Trumpy before 2020 and he was pro-Trump as state GOP chairman (again, pre-2020).

They like folks like Jim Banks, Andy Biggs, and Byron Donalds, who support Trump’s policies but aren’t style over substance like Boebert, Gaetz, Cawthorn, Santos. Even MTG has slowly been moving into the former camp.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

That signature goal is so low she's probably better off not even trying for the convention. Whether she's smart enough to realize that remains to be seen.

She’ll still need 10% at the convention no matter what according to the article

[MaxQue]

That signature goal is so low she's probably better off not even trying for the convention. Whether she's smart enough to realize that remains to be seen.

She’ll still need 10% at the convention no matter what according to the article

It's a "or". You need 10% at the convention, but you are not forced to participate in it if you have the signatures.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

That signature goal is so low she's probably better off not even trying for the convention. Whether she's smart enough to realize that remains to be seen.

She’ll still need 10% at the convention no matter what according to the article

It's a "or". You need 10% at the convention, but you are not forced to participate in it if you have the signatures.

Oh, I had read it as

30% at the convention OR 10% at the convention + signatures

not

30% at the convention OR 10% at the convention + signatures OR signatures alone

[patzer]

Attempting an analysis of the district to try to find a potentially winning Dem voter coalition, by breaking it down into three separate sections:



Yellow = Douglas County and immediate surroundings. 401,033 people (55.6% of the 4th's population). 256,100 votes in 2020 (57.9% of the district's votes) (63.9% turnout). Trump+18.1 in 2016, Trump+7.1 in 2020.

Red = Fort Collins suburbs. 155,051 people (21.5% of the 4th's population). 97,206 votes in 2020 presidential (22.0% of the district's votes) (62.7% turnout). Trump+23.4 in 2016, Trump+14.7 in 2020.

Green = sprawling eastern plains. 165,710 people (23.0% of the 4th's population). 88,907 votes in 2020 presidential (20.1% of the district's votes) (53.7% turnout). Trump+56.2 in 2016, Trump+55.5 in 2020.

The immediate lesson to learn is that the green area (eastern plains) is a minor component to the district, with the lower turnout there making its relevance even less, but that it's so heavily Republican that it still carries a significant impact.

Let's imagine, for example, that the 2016-20 trend were repeated in 2024, with the result being the yellow area being Biden+3.9, red being Trump+6.0, and green being Trump+54.8. Yellow and red together would be narrowly Democratic-leaning (by 0.9%), but add green and the whole lot is suddenly R+10.1.

However... there is another slightly useful factor for Dems here. Population growth. Yellow area VAP grew by 33.1% from 2010-2020, red area VAP grew by 34.8%, green area VAP grew by... 3.8%. Extend that trend to 2024, and one would expect the portion of the district's votes occurring in the yellow area to grow from 57.9% in 2020 to 59.0% in 2024, the portion occurring in the red area to grow from 22.0% in 2020 to 22.5% in 2024, and the portion occurring in the green area to drop from 20.1% in 2020 to 18.5% in 2024. Which helps slightly.

Putting all of this together to try to find a winning coalition for a potential Democrat in this district... The plains clearly won't shift left much no matter what, let's put them at R+55. The difficulty is that even if that area is only 18% of the votes in the district, it is strong enough that the remainder of the votes in the district need to lean Dem heavily to counter it. It seems to me that what you'd need is along the lines of the yellow area voting D+15 and the red area voting D+6 (or yellow voting D+16 and red voting D+3.5, or yellow voting D+14 and red voting D+8.5, etc). That would just about be enough to get the seat to flip.

Conveniently, the partisan lean of the yellow area precisely matches the partisan lean of Douglas County as a whole, as the few non-Douglas areas in it pretty much perfectly match up. So, my conclusion is that a Democrat winning this district would need to win Douglas County by around 15 points.

It's a (very) tall order, however, if the Republican nominee does end up being Lauren Boebert (an extremely poor fit for the district) and the Democrats were to find a high quality moderate candidate as a recruit able to pull in large amounts of anti-Boebert resist money (and potentially even an endorsement from Ken Buck), I don't think I would entirely rule out an upset.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Attempting an analysis of the district to try to find a potentially winning Dem voter coalition, by breaking it down into three separate sections:



Yellow = Douglas County and immediate surroundings. 401,033 people (55.6% of the 4th's population). 256,100 votes in 2020 (57.9% of the district's votes) (63.9% turnout). Trump+18.1 in 2016, Trump+7.1 in 2020.

Red = Fort Collins suburbs. 155,051 people (21.5% of the 4th's population). 97,206 votes in 2020 presidential (22.0% of the district's votes) (62.7% turnout). Trump+23.4 in 2016, Trump+14.7 in 2020.

Green = sprawling eastern plains. 165,710 people (23.0% of the 4th's population). 88,907 votes in 2020 presidential (20.1% of the district's votes) (53.7% turnout). Trump+56.2 in 2016, Trump+55.5 in 2020.

The immediate lesson to learn is that the green area (eastern plains) is a minor component to the district, with the lower turnout there making its relevance even less, but that it's so heavily Republican that it still carries a significant impact.

Let's imagine, for example, that the 2016-20 trend were repeated in 2024, with the result being the yellow area being Biden+3.9, red being Trump+6.0, and green being Trump+54.8. Yellow and red together would be narrowly Democratic-leaning (by 0.9%), but add green and the whole lot is suddenly R+10.1.

However... there is another slightly useful factor for Dems here. Population growth. Yellow area VAP grew by 33.1% from 2010-2020, red area VAP grew by 34.8%, green area VAP grew by... 3.8%. Extend that trend to 2024, and one would expect the portion of the district's votes occurring in the yellow area to grow from 57.9% in 2020 to 59.0% in 2024, the portion occurring in the red area to grow from 22.0% in 2020 to 22.5% in 2024, and the portion occurring in the green area to drop from 20.1% in 2020 to 18.5% in 2024. Which helps slightly.

Putting all of this together to try to find a winning coalition for a potential Democrat in this district... The plains clearly won't shift left much no matter what, let's put them at R+55. The difficulty is that even if that area is only 18% of the votes in the district, it is strong enough that the remainder of the votes in the district need to lean Dem heavily to counter it. It seems to me that what you'd need is along the lines of the yellow area voting D+15 and the red area voting D+6 (or yellow voting D+16 and red voting D+3.5, or yellow voting D+14 and red voting D+8.5, etc). That would just about be enough to get the seat to flip.

Conveniently, the partisan lean of the yellow area precisely matches the partisan lean of Douglas County as a whole, as the few non-Douglas areas in it pretty much perfectly match up. So, my conclusion is that a Democrat winning this district would need to win Douglas County by around 15 points.

It's a (very) tall order, however, if the Republican nominee does end up being Lauren Boebert (an extremely poor fit for the district) and the Democrats were to find a high quality moderate candidate as a recruit able to pull in large amounts of anti-Boebert resist money (and potentially even an endorsement from Ken Buck), I don't think I would entirely rule out an upset.

Good analysis here.

I think one thing that helps Dems here is that the Dem base here is pretty pragmatic: high education and high income types. Not only as you point out does this mean turnout dynamics tend to favor Dems, but a good chunk of the D primary electorate they may be more aware of the electoral implications and try to nominate someone more moderate/electable.

One thing that I could see happening is a D primary that becomes a regional battle between someone from Douglas County and someone from the Loveland area.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't it be ironic if Ds managed to win CO 04 while falling far short of winning in the significantly closer CO 03?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wouldn't it be ironic if Ds managed to win CO 04 while falling far short of winning in the significantly closer CO 03?

That would be such a cursed looking map.

It's really funny how there's a very realistic chance the Colorado delegation goes 8D-0R before the end of the decade. Crazy how fast Colorado went from a genuine swing to a bastion of liberalism with the possibility of an all-Dem delegation on a commission drawn map.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Boebert ends up winning the primary I don’t see her losing the general in 2024, but Democrats have a real shot at flipping this later in the decade.

If she loses the primary, like I expect her to, the GOP is set for the decade here (unless they nominate another candidate with as much baggage as she does).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Could be a very interesting race given the district’s trend. Hopefully the Dems get a good candidate here.

Likely R for now, but Tossup/Lean R if Boebert gets the nomination.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Could be a very interesting race given the district’s trend. Hopefully the Dems get a good candidate here.

Likely R for now, but Tossup/Lean R if Boebert gets the nomination.

A district this Republican would not be Lean R even with Boebert

[Tekken_Guy]

Could be a very interesting race given the district’s trend. Hopefully the Dems get a good candidate here.

Likely R for now, but Tossup/Lean R if Boebert gets the nomination.

A district this Republican would not be Lean R even with Boebert

Likely R with Boebert, Safe R with anyone else.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On Saturday night, three years to the day after supporters of Donald Trump attacked the U.S. Capitol building, election objecting Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) is the subject of an active police investigation into an alleged physical altercation with her ex-husband, Jayson Boebert, at a restaurant in her district Saturday night.
...
According to the aide, on Saturday, Jayson Boebert had called the police to the Miner’s Claim restaurant in Silt, claiming that he was a “victim of domestic violence.” The aide emphasized that Lauren Boebert denies any allegation of domestic violence on her part, and that the events as depicted in social media posts on Saturday were not accurate.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/lauren-boeberts-ex-husband-jayson-called-the-cops-after-physical-fight-in-public

[Roll Roons]

One of the main reasons Madison Cawthorn lost his primary was the constant stream of embarrassing headlines that came out about him. The other was him trying to carpetbag into another district when the initial Republican gerrymander was passed, and then coming back to his original district when the State Supreme Court struck the gerrymander and created the new map.

Make of that what you will.