CO-4: Boebert in hot water again (1/7)

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Holtorf still defeats Boebert. He's just as far-right without seeming like an embarrassment.

IMO Holtorf and Boebert split the MAGA vote and allow a normie con like Mike Lynch through.

[SnowLabrador]

What a coward. To be fair, would we expect courage from Lauren Boebert?

[JMT]

Yeah this is interesting, I didn’t see this one coming but I’m not surprised.

While incumbents often run in different districts in redistricting years, are there other examples of incumbents carpetbagging to a new district in non-redistricting years? Besides Boebert, the only other example I can think of is Mario Díaz-Balart, who opted to leave the 25th district to run for the more conservative 21st district that his brother (Lincoln Díaz-Balart) was vacating in 2010. Are there any other examples?

[Ferguson97]

She must have had some dismal internal polling. I never thought that she was rational enough to recognize when she would lose.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah this is interesting, I didn’t see this one coming but I’m not surprised.

While incumbents often run in different districts in redistricting years, are there other examples of incumbents carpetbagging to a new district in non-redistricting years? Besides Boebert, the only other example I can think of is Mario Díaz-Balart, who opted to leave the 25th district to run for the more conservative 21st district that his brother (Lincoln Díaz-Balart) was vacating in 2010. Are there any other examples?

It's not immediate,  but the one that springs to mind is Ann Kirkpatrick who represented the big first district after 2008 and again after 2012 redistricting until she ran for senate in 2016. Then in 2018 she ran in the Tuscon second district and had it until 2022. Now, in her case it wasn't really a major issue cause her old seat now had a different Dem incumbent, the districts had similar partisanship (no accusations of running for safety), and the Arizona population is so transient.  But it still came up on that first 2018 campaign.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah this is interesting, I didn’t see this one coming but I’m not surprised.

While incumbents often run in different districts in redistricting years, are there other examples of incumbents carpetbagging to a new district in non-redistricting years? Besides Boebert, the only other example I can think of is Mario Díaz-Balart, who opted to leave the 25th district to run for the more conservative 21st district that his brother (Lincoln Díaz-Balart) was vacating in 2010. Are there any other examples?

It's not immediate,  but the one that springs to mind is Ann Kirkpatrick who represented the big first district after 2008 and again after 2012 redistricting until she ran for senate in 2016. Then in 2018 she ran in the Tuscon second district and had it until 2022. Now, in her case it wasn't really a major issue cause her old seat not had a different Dem incumbent, the districts had similar partisanship (no accusations of running for safety), and the Arizona population is so transient.  But it still came up on that first 2018 campaign.

Also Kirkpatrick was well liked by Democrats across the state. Definitely not the case with Boebert.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

She must have had some dismal internal polling. I never thought that she was rational enough to recognize when she would lose.

I think she would've been even more delusional than she already is to think she would be secure after winning by the narrowest margin of anyone in Congress right now.

[JMT]

Yeah this is interesting, I didn’t see this one coming but I’m not surprised.

While incumbents often run in different districts in redistricting years, are there other examples of incumbents carpetbagging to a new district in non-redistricting years? Besides Boebert, the only other example I can think of is Mario Díaz-Balart, who opted to leave the 25th district to run for the more conservative 21st district that his brother (Lincoln Díaz-Balart) was vacating in 2010. Are there any other examples?

It's not immediate,  but the one that springs to mind is Ann Kirkpatrick who represented the big first district after 2008 and again after 2012 redistricting until she ran for senate in 2016. Then in 2018 she ran in the Tuscon second district and had it until 2022. Now, in her case it wasn't really a major issue cause her old seat not had a different Dem incumbent, the districts had similar partisanship (no accusations of running for safety), and the Arizona population is so transient.  But it still came up on that first 2018 campaign.

Also Kirkpatrick was well liked by Democrats across the state. Definitely not the case with Boebert.

Good example! I forgot about Kirkpatrick.

I just remembered that Gil Cisneros is essentially running in a new district this year (CA-31) to replace Grace Napolitano. Very technically, there is some overlap with his old district, but not a lot… per Daily Kos, “all of five of Napolitano's current constituents live within the boundaries of Cisneros' old seat.”

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/1/2184435/-Morning-Digest-Two-Republicans-who-recognized-Biden-s-win-weigh-retirement

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah this is interesting, I didn’t see this one coming but I’m not surprised.

While incumbents often run in different districts in redistricting years, are there other examples of incumbents carpetbagging to a new district in non-redistricting years? Besides Boebert, the only other example I can think of is Mario Díaz-Balart, who opted to leave the 25th district to run for the more conservative 21st district that his brother (Lincoln Díaz-Balart) was vacating in 2010. Are there any other examples?

It's not immediate,  but the one that springs to mind is Ann Kirkpatrick who represented the big first district after 2008 and again after 2012 redistricting until she ran for senate in 2016. Then in 2018 she ran in the Tuscon second district and had it until 2022. Now, in her case it wasn't really a major issue cause her old seat not had a different Dem incumbent, the districts had similar partisanship (no accusations of running for safety), and the Arizona population is so transient.  But it still came up on that first 2018 campaign.

Also Kirkpatrick was well liked by Democrats across the state. Definitely not the case with Boebert.

Good example! I forgot about Kirkpatrick.

I just remembered that Gil Cisneros is essentially running in a new district this year (CA-31) to replace Grace Napolitano. Very technically, there is some overlap with his old district, but not a lot… per Daily Kos, “all of five of Napolitano's current constituents live within the boundaries of Cisneros' old seat.”

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/1/2184435/-Morning-Digest-Two-Republicans-who-recognized-Biden-s-win-weigh-retirement

Well the maps have been redrawn since Cisneros last ran.

Regardless Boebert is in a very bad position and a Trump endorsement is not going to be enough to save her. Trump was not able to save Madison Cawthorn even after he carpetbagged back to his old seat, and I expect Boebert will do even worse in the primary than Cawthorn did since she's actually following through on the carpetbag.

[JMT]

It’ll be interesting to see if Mike Johnson/House Leadership/NRCC treats Boebert as the incumbent here. I imagine they’ll throw her an endorsement, but probably won’t spend money here since it’s a safe R race anyways.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’ll be interesting to see if Mike Johnson/House Leadership/NRCC treats Boebert as the incumbent here. I imagine they’ll throw her an endorsement, but probably won’t spend money here since it’s a safe R race anyways.

Was leadership willing to save Cawthorn?

[JMT]

It’ll be interesting to see if Mike Johnson/House Leadership/NRCC treats Boebert as the incumbent here. I imagine they’ll throw her an endorsement, but probably won’t spend money here since it’s a safe R race anyways.

Was leadership willing to save Cawthorn?

Good point! So perhaps not

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Yeah this is interesting, I didn’t see this one coming but I’m not surprised.

While incumbents often run in different districts in redistricting years, are there other examples of incumbents carpetbagging to a new district in non-redistricting years? Besides Boebert, the only other example I can think of is Mario Díaz-Balart, who opted to leave the 25th district to run for the more conservative 21st district that his brother (Lincoln Díaz-Balart) was vacating in 2010. Are there any other examples?

Interestingly enough, Sinema thought about doing this in 2014 and running for the district that ironically ended up electing Ruben Gallego that year. But ultimately decided against it and successfully sought reelection in the more purple AZ-09 against none other than...Wendy Rogers.

[Burke Bro]

Holtorf is going to run away with the nomination here and it won’t be close. He’s a great fit for the district. Carpetbagging to CO-5 was a bad move by Boebert, but the writing was clearly on the wall that the GOP in CO-3 didn’t want her anymore and thought it was too risky to advance her to the general election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Holtorf is going to run away with the nomination here and it won’t be close. He’s a great fit for the district. Carpetbagging to CO-5 was a bad move by Boebert, but the writing was clearly on the wall that the GOP in CO-3 didn’t want her anymore and thought it was too risky to advance her to the general election.

Wonder if this was more the NRCC/COGOP who got her to move rather than something Boebert did on her own?

This could not end well for her though. Boebert has a very low ceiling in the primary as a blatant carpetbagger and her only hope is squeaking through a clown car with a Trump endorsement.

[Pollster]

Major advantage that Boebert has here is that running for CO-03 requires you to run in every media market in the state, so her name ID is probably quite high statewide (the theater incident obviously picked up a lot of earned media coverage as well, so not all of this will be positive name ID, but it's still a significant head start).

Also worth noting that Madison Cawthorn attempted this before the NC courts redrew the map and took a lot of flack from the state party for it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Major advantage that Boebert has here is that running for CO-03 requires you to run in every media market in the state, so her name ID is probably quite high statewide (the theater incident obviously picked up a lot of earned media coverage as well, so not all of this will be positive name ID, but it's still a significant head start).

Also worth noting that Madison Cawthorn attempted this before the NC courts redrew the map and took a lot of flack from the state party for it.

True, but I don’t think people in CO-04 see Boebert as a Denver-area politician. Also, Mondaire Jones never left the NYC media market when he carpetbagged but Manhattan and Brooklyn surely didn’t treat him like an incumbent.

Given that Cawthorn couldn’t even be renominated for his old seat he would have been obliterated in the original gerrymandered Charlotte seat he planned on running in. Boebert’s in the same boat as Cawthorn was.

[Rand]

Boebert is in for a rocky primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as I am concerned the H is gone for the Rs anyways

[Lambsbread]

Watching Boebert lose this primary would be very akin to watching Steve King losing his primary to Randy Feenstra; I'll certainly cheer for the dumbfock losing, but who they're being replaced by won't be much better.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1740201646452605093

[Pollster]

True, but I don’t think people in CO-04 see Boebert as a Denver-area politician. Also, Mondaire Jones never left the NYC media market when he carpetbagged but Manhattan and Brooklyn surely didn’t treat him like an incumbent.

Given that Cawthorn couldn’t even be renominated for his old seat he would have been obliterated in the original gerrymandered Charlotte seat he planned on running in. Boebert’s in the same boat as Cawthorn was.

Not sure what the Denver-area politician thing is referring to.

Silly to compare the New York media market  to the Denver and Colorado Springs media markets.

[MasterJedi]

I don’t see this ending well for Tugger at all.

[President Johnson]

Watch as she loses the primary.

Why? It seems like she's the perfect match for the Republican base.

Anyway, I certainly hope so. Would be great to have her departing from the House.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can only imagine how bad those internal polls must've been if she was forced to go for such a Hail Mary.