CO-4: Boebert in hot water again (1/7)

[Tekken_Guy]

Ehh Douglas County alone won't be enough to flip the entire district, imo.

Could get it within 10 at the very least.

[Schiff for Senate]

CO-05 is trending blue?

Yes, and actually very fast, but it also remains very red overall. It swung from Trump+28 in 2016 (60/32) to Trump+18 in 2020 (58/40).

The Colorado Springs district?   Trump won it by 22% in 2016 and 10% in 2020.  2016 had a huge third party vote share though (~10%)

Yeah, in part because of this, pretty much all of Colorado (outside of a few deep red, totally rural counties with no people) swung hard left in 2020. And contrary to its rural appearance, Buck's district isn't actually all that rural (cough cough Douglas County).

CO-05 is trending blue?

Yes, and actually very fast, but it also remains very red overall. It swung from Trump+28 in 2016 (60/32) to Trump+18 in 2020 (58/40).

The Colorado Springs district?   Trump won it by 22% in 2016 and 10% in 2020.  2016 had a huge third party vote share though (~10%)

Biden set a record for Democratic presidential performance in that seat regardless. Then Polis and Bennet did even better last year. That seat will probably flip sometime in the next decade.

I could definitely see CO-03 and CO-05 voting Democratic regularly by the end of the decade. CO-04 will be the toughest nut to crack but it has Douglas County in the district. It could be in the single digits very soon, and while I could see it going D in statewide races it’ll take some time before it catches up downballot.

I don't think CO-03 will become a "blue" district anytime soon, but given Republicans like Boebart and how close 2022 was, it could definitely become an R-tilted swing district (it's already nearly there).

Ehh Douglas County alone won't be enough to flip the entire district, imo.

Could get it within 10 at the very least.

Possibly in the long term, but even if it does, that last 10% will be tough to crack. Trends aren't linear and they're going to eventually slow down and stop even in counties like Douglas.

[Zedonathin2020]

Buck retirement official

https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1719762049134203144?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1719762488978231757

[Roll Roons]

Safe R for this cycle, but after that, a particularly toxic incumbent could make this seat less safe for the GOP than it should be.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I expect a lot of the more senior ““sane”” republicans to retire. Buck and Granger are just the beginning

[Vosem]

There are Republicans who legitimately, genuinely oppose the witch-hunt into Joe Biden. And there are people like Ken Buck, who are very clearly gunning for cushy jobs in the media.

No, I don't think there are? I think 'investigate the administration very thoroughly', and correlates like Hunter's career being a serious issue, is a goal held by literally everyone in the party, including the members representing the most normally-Democratic seats like D'Esposito or Duarte.

[Vosem]

Anyway, two individuals who seem to be making moves towards running here are St. Rep. Richard Holtorf and former Douglas County DA George Brauchler, who was the Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2022. Both are quite right-wing -- Brauchler primaried (well, convention-ed) out more moderate Republican incumbent Cynthia Coffman in 2018 to get the nomination -- but Brauchler is considered probably more amenable to national leadership and is more of a rising star (he lost the state Attorney General race in 2018 by 7 points, 52-45, which is really not that bad all things considered). Holtorf has been discussed here already.

In a direct race between the two of them Brauchler will have both a money advantage and a geographical advantage, but Holtorf probably can't be counted out: in particular he will probably get the convention endorsement. (That counts for less than you think, though: Buck lost the convention endorsement in 2022 to a random nobody but still won the primary fairly easily). Brauchler is a much likelier eventual-statewide candidate in a good year, or if trends shift, though.

(The name that would be field-clearing here is former Senator Cory Gardner, who represented this seat before Buck and remains really strong in the area, but he hasn't made any moves towards running and is apparently busy as one of the main guys in the Tim Scott campaign.)

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyway, two individuals who seem to be making moves towards running here are St. Rep. Richard Holtorf and former Douglas County DA George Brauchler, who was the Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2022. Both are quite right-wing -- Brauchler primaried (well, convention-ed) out more moderate Republican incumbent Cynthia Coffman in 2018 to get the nomination -- but Brauchler is considered probably more amenable to national leadership and is more of a rising star (he lost the state Attorney General race in 2018 by 7 points, 52-45, which is really not that bad all things considered). Holtorf has been discussed here already.

In a direct race between the two of them Brauchler will have both a money advantage and a geographical advantage, but Holtorf probably can't be counted out: in particular he will probably get the convention endorsement. (That counts for less than you think, though: Buck lost the convention endorsement in 2022 to a random nobody but still won the primary fairly easily). Brauchler is a much likelier eventual-statewide candidate in a good year, or if trends shift, though.

(The name that would be field-clearing here is former Senator Cory Gardner, who represented this seat before Buck and remains really strong in the area, but he hasn't made any moves towards running and is apparently busy as one of the main guys in the Tim Scott campaign.)

Do you think Heidi Ganahl might run here?

[Vosem]

Anyway, two individuals who seem to be making moves towards running here are St. Rep. Richard Holtorf and former Douglas County DA George Brauchler, who was the Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2022. Both are quite right-wing -- Brauchler primaried (well, convention-ed) out more moderate Republican incumbent Cynthia Coffman in 2018 to get the nomination -- but Brauchler is considered probably more amenable to national leadership and is more of a rising star (he lost the state Attorney General race in 2018 by 7 points, 52-45, which is really not that bad all things considered). Holtorf has been discussed here already.

In a direct race between the two of them Brauchler will have both a money advantage and a geographical advantage, but Holtorf probably can't be counted out: in particular he will probably get the convention endorsement. (That counts for less than you think, though: Buck lost the convention endorsement in 2022 to a random nobody but still won the primary fairly easily). Brauchler is a much likelier eventual-statewide candidate in a good year, or if trends shift, though.

(The name that would be field-clearing here is former Senator Cory Gardner, who represented this seat before Buck and remains really strong in the area, but he hasn't made any moves towards running and is apparently busy as one of the main guys in the Tim Scott campaign.)

Do you think Heidi Ganahl might run here?

She does live in the seat (as does most of the COGOP leadership, really), so it's possible, but I haven't seen a lot of interest.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyway, two individuals who seem to be making moves towards running here are St. Rep. Richard Holtorf and former Douglas County DA George Brauchler, who was the Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2022. Both are quite right-wing -- Brauchler primaried (well, convention-ed) out more moderate Republican incumbent Cynthia Coffman in 2018 to get the nomination -- but Brauchler is considered probably more amenable to national leadership and is more of a rising star (he lost the state Attorney General race in 2018 by 7 points, 52-45, which is really not that bad all things considered). Holtorf has been discussed here already.

In a direct race between the two of them Brauchler will have both a money advantage and a geographical advantage, but Holtorf probably can't be counted out: in particular he will probably get the convention endorsement. (That counts for less than you think, though: Buck lost the convention endorsement in 2022 to a random nobody but still won the primary fairly easily). Brauchler is a much likelier eventual-statewide candidate in a good year, or if trends shift, though.

(The name that would be field-clearing here is former Senator Cory Gardner, who represented this seat before Buck and remains really strong in the area, but he hasn't made any moves towards running and is apparently busy as one of the main guys in the Tim Scott campaign.)

Do you think Heidi Ganahl might run here?

She does live in the seat (as does most of the COGOP leadership, really), so it's possible, but I haven't seen a lot of interest.

What about Pat Neville?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1719762488978231757

He is no hero, but he is a disturbing representation of how sick the party has become now that he is among the most reasonable in their ranks.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1719762488978231757

He is no hero, but he is a disturbing representation of how sick the party has become now that he is among the most reasonable in their ranks.

“Heroic republican takes a stand and says that we probably should have some democracy”

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1719762488978231757

He is no hero, but he is a disturbing representation of how sick the party has become now that he is among the most reasonable in their ranks.

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1719762488978231757

He is no hero, but he is a disturbing representation of how sick the party has become now that he is among the most reasonable in their ranks.

“Heroic republican takes a stand and says that we probably should have some democracy”

I’ve met Ken Buck before and he is basically programmed to seek out attention. That’s the problem with almost all of the people we talk about on this forum. I don’t think any of these people really have beliefs or convictions at the end of the day. Just strategic positions. And his is to become the reasonable conservative on CNN and make bank. Maybe travel around Europe. Write some inane book that won’t make bank or even a profit. Prolly spend lots of time avoiding his true believer of a wife

But the last thing on Ken Buck’s mind any given moment is the rule of law lol. This is after all a guy who didn’t prosecute a sexual assault because he thought the victim had “buyer’s remorse.”

People like him created this situation and are now trying to disassociate themselves from it because they are at least smart enough to smell which way the wind is blowing. Maybe he’s delusional enough to think this all will allow him to take on Hickenlooper in 2026. But the last thing motivating this guy now or ever is a love for the constitution lol

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1719762488978231757

He is no hero, but he is a disturbing representation of how sick the party has become now that he is among the most reasonable in their ranks.

“Heroic republican takes a stand and says that we probably should have some democracy”

Yep. That's where we're at.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1719806761786372335
https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1719807086467391572

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1740173695505867235?t=A_LseURomNYelJtbVP2b...

Boebert to carpetbag to CO-04 despite living west of Rockies. On one hand, this means she isn't going to be the incumbent in CO-03 which improves GOP prospects.  On the other hand, Frisch already has an absurd amount of money for a congressional race, especially an open seat.

In CO-04, we'll see if the GOP rolls over for her national image, especially since residency and the handjob incident are good nonideological points of attack for fellow conservatives.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

There’s already a couple fairly prominent local politicians running. It’ll be curious if they drop out and endorse or fight it out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Watch as she loses the primary.

[Oryxslayer]

Watch as she loses the primary.

A very distinct possibility given a already prominent field. And carpetbagging across the Rockies is crossing one of those clear societal delineators.

[Atlas Force]

Yeah they’re not gonna give her a pass:

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/1740190435753267584

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I wonder if there was some sort of deal involved to have some of the other hard right candidates already in the race like Holtorf to drop out, or if everyone was blindsided by this decision from Boebert.

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, nor does it seem very likely that it improves her re-election prospects much. She's just gambling on trading a decade of facing very competitive generals in CO-03 with one cycle of a competitive primary followed by incumbent entrenchment and easier generals in CO-04 (although with Douglas County trending D, who knows).

I don't think it'll pay off for her, unless she knows something about a path to a primary victory that we don't yet.

EDIT: Just saw Holtorf's statement about how he's staying in the race. Guess Boebert didn't really think this one through and is betting on a Trump endorsement to save the day.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think Holtorf still defeats Boebert. He's just as far-right without seeming like an embarrassment.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Yeah I’m not surprised they aren’t rolling over. Eastern Colorado is pretty regionalist and not without reason

[Atlas Force]

Yeah I’m not surprised they aren’t rolling over. Eastern Colorado is pretty regionalist and not with reason

You mean "without"?