LA-GOV (Mason-Dixon): Landry +16 in primary, Landry +13 in runoff

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1703896356497019229

Likely goes to a runoff and Wilson can certainly outperform Biden, but in the end I don't see how Democrats keep this one.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I’m saying it now… with Biden likely to make Dobbs an issue, I wouldn’t be surprised if Louisiana voted 65 % R or something like that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Runoff anyways for Dec

[TML]

I’m saying it now… with Biden likely to make Dobbs an issue, I wouldn’t be surprised if Louisiana voted 65 % R or something like that

Actually, in this poll a majority of voters oppose the current abortion law in Louisiana (abortion is only allowed to save the mother’s life or if the fetus is non-viable) by a 53-41 margin. It’s just that abortion doesn’t rank nearly as high in importance as an issue in this state as in many other states (in this poll, it only ranked 7th in overall importance, compared to it being ranked 2nd in overall importance in the 2022 exit polls for national House races).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m saying it now… with Biden likely to make Dobbs an issue, I wouldn’t be surprised if Louisiana voted 65 % R or something like that

Actually, in this poll a majority of voters oppose the current abortion law in Louisiana (abortion is only allowed to save the mother’s life or if the fetus is non-viable) by a 53-41 margin. It’s just that abortion doesn’t rank nearly as high in importance as an issue in this state as in many other states (in this poll, it only ranked 7th in overall importance, compared to it being ranked 2nd in overall importance in the 2022 exit polls for national House races).

Couldn't many of those people in the 53% in fact think the law isn't strict enough?

[TML]

I’m saying it now… with Biden likely to make Dobbs an issue, I wouldn’t be surprised if Louisiana voted 65 % R or something like that

Actually, in this poll a majority of voters oppose the current abortion law in Louisiana (abortion is only allowed to save the mother’s life or if the fetus is non-viable) by a 53-41 margin. It’s just that abortion doesn’t rank nearly as high in importance as an issue in this state as in many other states (in this poll, it only ranked 7th in overall importance, compared to it being ranked 2nd in overall importance in the 2022 exit polls for national House races).

Couldn't many of those people in the 53% in fact think the law isn't strict enough?

Not necessarily. According to Fox News’ voter analysis for the 2022 Senate race in Louisiana (where the incumbent Republican senator won with 62% of the vote), the electorate’s attitude toward abortion was as follows:

21% always legal
29% mostly legal
(50% net legal)
34% mostly illegal
16% always illegal
(50% net illegal)

The aforementioned numbers suggest that the number of people who oppose the current abortion law in LA as not being strict enough is likely a relatively small number compared to those who oppose it as being too strict.

[2016]

Mason-Dixon picked the about the right Number for Wilson with 24 % (he got 26 %) but obviously severly underestimated Landry + almost all of 15 % who were undecided did go to Landry.