9/15/2023 check-in: How do you think the Ukrainian invasion ends up?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Again you’re the one saying an invasion won’t happen calling it a “nothingburger” and saying “there will be no invasion” for everyone to see. Also you only made the original to troll andjey so you can save the whining as no one wants to hear it

[Horus]

The fact that it's been this long and there's still no consistent view leads me to believe that, sadly, #6 is the most likely option for the next couple years at least. Last time I checked Ukraine was gaining territory back but at such a slow pace that it will take like 70 years to regain everything if they don't speed up.

[lfromnj]

6 but replace it with a more frozen/low intensity conflict.

[CumbrianLefty]

Last time I checked Ukraine was gaining territory back but at such a slow pace that it will take like 70 years to regain everything if they don't speed up.

Remember the maxim "gradually, then suddenly" though - lots of examples of it in wartime.

Not saying that you are wrong, simply that it is still too early to say.

[BigSerg]

Last time I checked Ukraine was gaining territory back but at such a slow pace that it will take like 70 years to regain everything if they don't speed up.

Remember the maxim "gradually, then suddenly" though - lots of examples of it in wartime.

Not saying that you are wrong, simply that it is still too early to say.

That only happens when both sides can't afford any more attrition. Russia has not mobilized and that is a huge factor in the calculation. Ukraine has had a general mobilization for over a year, while Russia has only done a partial one. If you don't see the difference, I don't know what to tell you.

[BigSerg]

Last time I checked Ukraine was gaining territory back but at such a slow pace that it will take like 70 years to regain everything if they don't speed up.

Remember the maxim "gradually, then suddenly" though - lots of examples of it in wartime.

Not saying that you are wrong, simply that it is still too early to say.

Can you mention those examples? I am sure they will all be from two sides fully committed to war, war economics and general mobilization. The point is that in this conflict, only Ukraine has those characteristics. The Russian economy is still mostly civilian and they have had only partial mobilization in over a year of war.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Last time I checked Ukraine was gaining territory back but at such a slow pace that it will take like 70 years to regain everything if they don't speed up.

Remember the maxim "gradually, then suddenly" though - lots of examples of it in wartime.

Not saying that you are wrong, simply that it is still too early to say.

Can you mention those examples? I am sure they will all be from two sides fully committed to war, war economics and general mobilization. The point is that in this conflict, only Ukraine has those characteristics. The Russian economy is still mostly civilian and they have had only partial mobilization in over a year of war.

Like with America in the War on Terror, Russia not going into war economy footing or enacting mass mobilization is a deliberate policy choice. Anything which affects the daily lives of Russians, and for something that unlike the Great Patriotic War is absolutely not an existential conflict, is likely to spur greater opposition.

Anyway, I think the medium-term outcome is #6, though less Iran-Iraq and more of another post-Soviet frozen conflict.

[SnowLabrador]

It will never end.

[oldtimer]

Last time I checked Ukraine was gaining territory back but at such a slow pace that it will take like 70 years to regain everything if they don't speed up.

Remember the maxim "gradually, then suddenly" though - lots of examples of it in wartime.

Not saying that you are wrong, simply that it is still too early to say.

Can you mention those examples? I am sure they will all be from two sides fully committed to war, war economics and general mobilization. The point is that in this conflict, only Ukraine has those characteristics. The Russian economy is still mostly civilian and they have had only partial mobilization in over a year of war.

Like with America in the War on Terror, Russia not going into war economy footing or enacting mass mobilization is a deliberate policy choice. Anything which affects the daily lives of Russians, and for something that unlike the Great Patriotic War is absolutely not an existential conflict, is likely to spur greater opposition.

Anyway, I think the medium-term outcome is #6, though less Iran-Iraq and more of another post-Soviet frozen conflict.

No country has ever won a war that it didn't fully commit.