9/15/2023 check-in: How do you think the Ukrainian invasion ends up?

[GeneralMacArthur]

For reference, here's my poll from 2/11/2022, shortly before the invasion:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=482516.msg8474674#msg8474674

At that time, only 13% of the forum thought Ukraine would actually hold its own against the Russian military.  Thus far the Ukrainian army has proven much more capable than expected, the Russian army far less capable than expected, and NATO far more patient when it comes to providing Ukraine with a steady stream of supplies.

There's two questions to answer:
First 12:  How do you think the war ends up?
Last 2:  Do you think Putin survives atop Russia?

I set December 2025 as an arbitrary endpoint since at that point we'll be about 4 years into the war and if nothing has happened we can probably safely say it's going to be static for a long time or Russian patience will wear thin.

Another bonus question I considered asking is whether any other nation will join the war.  Belarus and Moldova seem like the most likely combatants on their respective sides.  Feel free to offer an opinion on this as well.

[CityofSinners]

To force Russia to the negotiation table and get a good deal, Ukraine would need to cut off the landbridge between Russia and Crimea. Which would mean reaching near Mariupol or Melitopol.

This would force negotiations as Ukraine could dig in and slowly deprive russian troops in Zaporizhzhya, Kherson and Crimea of supplies.
There is only so much supplies you can send over the Crimean bridge. Both transport planes and ships are vulnerable to missle attacks if ukraine advances that far.

I don't think that is realistic. Even untrained troops are good enough to dig trenches and defend heavily mined areas.
Though I also don't expect meaningful Russian gains. Their troop quality and artillery has been too degraded.

There will be one final push in the spring with F-16 support but after that the west will reduce their support and push for negotiations.
I predict some form of ceasefire along the lines after the spring offensive. Some additional gains for Ukraine compared to the current status but not much.

The one X factor that could upend my prediction is russian morale. Can Russia keep up their mobilization without civil unrest? Will some russian units revolt if they have to stay another 6 months in the field without rotation?

[WalterWhite]

I think Ukraine will retake all of its territory, including Crimea. Ukraine has been hacking away at Russian supply lines, and it is likely only a matter of time before the Ukrainian army starts recapturing large amounts of territory.

As for Putin, nothing can really put him out of power. Russian elections are rigged, and whoever tries to overthrow Putin ends up accidentally dead for some mysterious reason.

[MATTROSE94]

I think Putin and his allies (China, Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, North Korea, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, the PMF, and the remnants of Wagner) will push through Ukrainian defenses using human wave attacks and conquer Ukraine by the end of the year.

[dead0man]

I think Putin and his allies (China, Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, North Korea, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, the PMF, and the remnants of Wagner) will push through Ukrainian defenses using human wave attacks

that would be awesome, the good places on the planet can get together and have themselves a good old fashioned Western Ukraine Turkey Shoot.  Sending that many bad people to hell will have long lasting good affects on the planet, probably launch us into a new era of great prosperity.  Sadly the enemies of humanity couldn't possibly all get together on the same page for something like that.  They all know how untrustworthy each other are and act accordingly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah yes, the good old "human wave attacks" that took almost a year to capture one small town.

Great stuff.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Resorting to “human wave attacks” is not a sign of confidence that you’ll win.

Yes, Iran used them against Iraq in the 80s (at massive cost in lives) but the Iranians were also the ones fighting for their survival against a superior military force intent on occupying and annexing Iranian territory (side note: Saddam Hussein did the Islamic Republic a massive favor in terms of boosting its domestic legitimacy. Come to think of it, Putin has done likewise for Ukrainian nationalism and the project of Ukrainian national unity).

A much larger invading country using such desperate tactics is just pathetic, and a tacit admission of defeat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

#7 and #13.

[KaiserDave]

My powers of prediction are unremarkable, but I feel like I know the situation well enough to hang my hat on two things.

1) A decisive breakthrough for either side, in Ukraine's case the liberation of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts as well as Donetsk and Luhansk, or in Russia's case the conquest of the whole of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia and possibly Kharkiv, is incredibly unlikely. I do not anticipate any kind of massive shift. I am confident that Crimea will remain occupied.

2) No side will be willing to sign a formal peace treaty under any circumstances. Russia will absolutely never agree to a peace treaty recognizing the current frontline, as Ukraine currently holds territory that Russia considers to be as Russian as Moscow, and Ukraine will never recognize these claims or recognize the current frontline. There's nothing that could change this, whatsoever, including "Western pressure."

For that reason I feel comfortable predicting a protracted frozen conflict. The Russian professional army was defeated a year ago, but Russia's unprofessional army is probably large and fortified enough to prevent a Ukrainian breakthrough. I do not consider Russia to be capable of offensive warfare. I feel more confident about 2) than 1). I could not categorically rule out a decisive Ukrainian breakthrough after the events of September 2022.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I think Putin and his allies (China, Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, North Korea, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, the PMF, and the remnants of Wagner) will push through Ukrainian defenses using human wave attacks and conquer Ukraine by the end of the year.

I agree that Bolivia will send tens of thousands of men to die in Kharkiv, this makes total sense.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think Putin and his allies (China, Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, North Korea, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, the PMF, and the remnants of Wagner) will push through Ukrainian defenses using human wave attacks and conquer Ukraine by the end of the year.

I agree that Bolivia will send tens of thousands of men to die in Kharkiv, this makes total sense.

Bolivia hasn't even been willing to actively support Russia diplomatically on this war, although it's obviously still Russian-aligned in broader senses. It's in a roughly similar place to Serbia and Armenia, which are themselves shockingly weak in their support for Putin's war compared to what would have been expected even on February 21, 2022.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I think Putin and his allies (China, Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, North Korea, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, the PMF, and the remnants of Wagner) will push through Ukrainian defenses using human wave attacks and conquer Ukraine by the end of the year.

I agree that Bolivia will send tens of thousands of men to die in Kharkiv, this makes total sense.

Bolivia hasn't even been willing to actively support Russia diplomatically on this war, although it's obviously still Russian-aligned in broader senses. It's in a roughly similar place to Serbia and Armenia, which are themselves shockingly weak in their support for Putin's war compared to what would have been expected even on February 21, 2022.

None of these countries want to openly be seen as backing an aggressive war. In Serbia's case, Serbia has quite strong ties with Ukraine, and Ukraine still doesn't recognize Kosovo.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Please don't take the MATTROSE bait people.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Please don't take the MATTROSE bait people.

It’s really hard for some as Matt is such a master at baiting people. A masterbaiter one might even say

[BigSerg]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

[Sol]

It seems like Russian control of most of currently occupied areas in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts + Crimea seems pretty baked in for the medium term. The Russians are extremely dug in along the front and it seems hard to imagine how Ukraine could ever break out towards Melitopol or Mariupol without even heavier Western support, and the trend is in the opposite direction.

That's a long way of saying that I think Ukraine will probably be forced to give up those areas to Russia, either formally through a treaty or informally through the freezing of the conflict. I hope I'm wrong.

[dead0man]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

hi

are you part of Vlad the Incompetent's Disinformation Team:Atlas Division or do you carry their water because you are just a Russian simp?

[GeneralMacArthur]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

[BigSerg]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

Yes, you see, we will never get to that point. At that point you have to be totally detached from reality to think something like that.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

Yes, you see, we will never get to that point. At that point you have to be totally detached from reality to think something like that.

Detached from reality like this?

Even I know there will be no invasion tonight

No. It was supposed (according to Western propaganda) that today at 3:00 am in Ukraine the invasion would start... it didn't happen, nothingburger.  

There will be no Russian invasion. However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

The only realistic scenario: Ukraine surrenders and accepts all Russian demands or is reduced to radioactive ashes.

[BigSerg]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

Yes, you see, we will never get to that point. At that point you have to be totally detached from reality to think something like that.

Detached from reality like this?

Even I know there will be no invasion tonight

No. It was supposed (according to Western propaganda) that today at 3:00 am in Ukraine the invasion would start... it didn't happen, nothingburger.  

There will be no Russian invasion. However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

The only realistic scenario: Ukraine surrenders and accepts all Russian demands or is reduced to radioactive ashes.

Sir, stop making a fool of yourself. As it says there, the invasion did not start that day. And the second thing is still true lmao, Ukraine has no chance, its only way out is to accept Russian demands.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

Yes, you see, we will never get to that point. At that point you have to be totally detached from reality to think something like that.

Detached from reality like this?

Even I know there will be no invasion tonight

No. It was supposed (according to Western propaganda) that today at 3:00 am in Ukraine the invasion would start... it didn't happen, nothingburger.  

There will be no Russian invasion. However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

The only realistic scenario: Ukraine surrenders and accepts all Russian demands or is reduced to radioactive ashes.

Sir, stop making a fool of yourself. As it says there, the invasion did not start that day. And the second thing is still true lmao, Ukraine has no chance, its only way out is to accept Russian demands.

You said on the 16th “there will be no invasion” but nice try 👍. Also trying to argue Ukraine has no chance after this past year of embarrassing an degrading your precious orc military to the point you’re begging NK for aid and your most effective fighting unit straight up mutinied on you makes it pretty clear who the fool is.

[BigSerg]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

Yes, you see, we will never get to that point. At that point you have to be totally detached from reality to think something like that.

Detached from reality like this?

Even I know there will be no invasion tonight

No. It was supposed (according to Western propaganda) that today at 3:00 am in Ukraine the invasion would start... it didn't happen, nothingburger.  

There will be no Russian invasion. However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

The only realistic scenario: Ukraine surrenders and accepts all Russian demands or is reduced to radioactive ashes.

Sir, stop making a fool of yourself. As it says there, the invasion did not start that day. And the second thing is still true lmao, Ukraine has no chance, its only way out is to accept Russian demands.

You said on the 16th “there will be no invasion” but nice try 👍. Also trying to argue Ukraine has no chance after this past year of embarrassing an degrading your precious orc military to the point you’re begging NK for aid and your most effective fighting unit straight up mutinied on you makes it pretty clear who the fool is.

However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

pretty clear who the fool is.

Yes, I think it's clear

[Hindsight was 2020]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

Yes, you see, we will never get to that point. At that point you have to be totally detached from reality to think something like that.

Detached from reality like this?

Even I know there will be no invasion tonight

No. It was supposed (according to Western propaganda) that today at 3:00 am in Ukraine the invasion would start... it didn't happen, nothingburger.  

There will be no Russian invasion. However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

The only realistic scenario: Ukraine surrenders and accepts all Russian demands or is reduced to radioactive ashes.

Sir, stop making a fool of yourself. As it says there, the invasion did not start that day. And the second thing is still true lmao, Ukraine has no chance, its only way out is to accept Russian demands.

You said on the 16th “there will be no invasion” but nice try 👍. Also trying to argue Ukraine has no chance after this past year of embarrassing an degrading your precious orc military to the point you’re begging NK for aid and your most effective fighting unit straight up mutinied on you makes it pretty clear who the fool is.

However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

pretty clear who the fool is.

Yes, I think it's clear

I get you’re a Z troll so bad faith comes to you naturally but we can all literally see the quote with the sentence you cut out of your highlight in which you openly state that there will be no invasion.

[BigSerg]

I seriously wonder who are the 9 people with severe cognitive impairment who think that Ukraine will regain Crimea and liberate all its former territories.

If we reach a point where Ukraine has already defeated Russia on the battlefield and retaken Luhansk and Donetsk, why would they not be expected to retake Crimea as well?  It's like if the Union crushed the confederacy but just decided to not recapture South Carolina for whatever reason.  What, because it was first?

Yes, you see, we will never get to that point. At that point you have to be totally detached from reality to think something like that.

Detached from reality like this?

Even I know there will be no invasion tonight

No. It was supposed (according to Western propaganda) that today at 3:00 am in Ukraine the invasion would start... it didn't happen, nothingburger.  

There will be no Russian invasion. However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

The only realistic scenario: Ukraine surrenders and accepts all Russian demands or is reduced to radioactive ashes.

Sir, stop making a fool of yourself. As it says there, the invasion did not start that day. And the second thing is still true lmao, Ukraine has no chance, its only way out is to accept Russian demands.

You said on the 16th “there will be no invasion” but nice try 👍. Also trying to argue Ukraine has no chance after this past year of embarrassing an degrading your precious orc military to the point you’re begging NK for aid and your most effective fighting unit straight up mutinied on you makes it pretty clear who the fool is.

However, I fear a conflict in Ukraine, especially because of the nuclear power plants.... There would surely be sabotage actions and Chernobyl could suffer attacks, nobody knows if what hides all that sand is still active.

pretty clear who the fool is.

Yes, I think it's clear

I get you’re a Z troll so bad faith comes to you naturally but we can all literally see the quote with the sentence you cut out of your highlight in which you openly state that there will be no invasion.

Here we go with the trolling. If you check the context, it is clear that I was referring to that day, in that same quote I leave open the possibility of conflict in the future. Does it amuse you to troll? Not to mention it was practically me who started the first threads about the situation when you all ignored it.