Who is the likeliest Non-Kamala Harris Democratic Nomiee for 2028?

[ShadowRocket]

In the event she doesn't run or is defeated in the primary, who do you is the most likely to have won the nomination?

I'm thinking Gavin Newsom followed by Gretchen Whitmer.

[BushKerry04]

In the event she doesn't run or is defeated in the primary, who do you is the most likely to have won the nomination?

I'm thinking Gavin Newsom followed by Gretchen Whitmer.

I believe that Governor Whitmer is the only Democratic candidate who can stop Harris from winning the nomination. I think more progressives will run than moderates.

First, the calendar favors her over other potential candidates. Michigan is the third primary state after South Carolina and Nevada, assuming the order stays the same in 2028. Harris would be a favorite to win South Carolina and Whitmer would almost certainly win Michigan. In Nevada, a lot would depend on who labor supports because they help candidates a lot there. Some reading this will say that labor will back the incumbent Vice President, which is generally true. However, Whitmer has a talking point Harris and few others can use. She actually repealed right to work in Michigan.

I believe Gretchen Whitmer is one of the most gifted politicians of our time, like Barack Obama. She's smart, authentic, likable, and articulate. She can make the case to moderates that she's results-oriented, pragmatic, and a proven winner. At the same time, she can make the case that she's followed through on her promises to progressives on everything from right to work, defending a woman's right to choose, voting rights, the environment, and more. Kamala Harris is the incumbent Vice President and will have years to increase her national profile. On January 20, 2025 she can start running (unofficially). While some in the establishment will support Whitmer due to the electability factor, I'd argue most in the establishment will back Harris. As I alluded to earlier, Whitmer can get some labor support and won't have trouble raising funds. But Harris will likely lead the field in fundraising.

I don't agree with you, respectfully, about Newsom. I don't think he sells in middle America. I just don't see him doing well in South Carolina or Michigan. Moderates view him as too progressive to win the general election, and I suspect the progressive vote will be relatively divided.

Now, let's say Harris decided not to run (which isn't happening) things become very interesting. I think more moderates run, folks who ran in 2020 like Buttigieg and Klobuchar run again. Whitmer would probably be the front-runner, but Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro could challenge her front-runner status.

So in short, Whitmer in my opinion.

[JGibson]

Likely Whitmer.

[Senator Incitatus]

Still Buttigieg.

[President Johnson]

I would say Whitmer. Pete lacks appeal to minority voters, especially African Americans, which are a vital voting bloc to win the Democratic nomination. Newsom, Moore and Warnock are other names that come to mind. Not sure about Shapiro, though he'd be far stronger than Pete. Either way, he would have an ideal vice presidential pick.

With that being said, I'm not fully convinced Kamala is a shoe-in for the 2028 nomination, even after a Biden reelection. Unless she's already president, she would have to fight for it and could see her losing to someone creating more excitement.

[Agonized-Statism]

People will really start talking about Gallego if he makes it to the senate next year (as I think he does), but I think he waits a while knowing that Democrats' mandate would be slipping in third and fourth consecutive terms as things continue deteriorating in this country. He would be tailor-made for 2032 if a Republican beat Harris in 2028.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

People will really start talking about Gallego if he makes it to the senate next year (as I think he does), but I think he waits a while knowing that Democrats' mandate would be slipping in third and fourth consecutive terms as things continue deteriorating in this country. He would be tailor-made for 2032 if a Republican beat Harris in 2028.

We're long past overdue for a Democratic candidate who makes a serious bid anchored around Hispanic-American (specifically Mexican-American) support; if Gallego otherwise runs as a sort of leftish-populist candidate he could be a serious contender.

Otherwise, it's Whitmer. I honestly don't think Newsom will play well outside California, and Buttigieg has zero appeal to minority voters. Fetterman and Warnock are strong contenders on paper but both would be leaving open senate seats, and Fetterman's health is a big unknown even if he seems to be recovering extremely well.

[Agonized-Statism]

We're long past overdue for a Democratic candidate who makes a serious bid anchored around Hispanic-American (specifically Mexican-American) support; if Gallego otherwise runs as a sort of leftist-populist candidate he could be a serious contender.

Absolutely. Mexican-Americans especially are something of a sleeping giant in demographic voting blocs and would be a powerful force if a Senator Gallego went all out with outreach, not to mention his military background and ability to appeal to progressives while keeping the liberal establishment happy enough. Taking down Sinema would be enough street cred on its own.

[Bismarck]

Newsom then Whitmer

[Del Tachi]

Michigan being early doesn't help Whitmer because the fact that it's her home state heavily bends the expectations curve.  No one will care if she wins big, but that will be a big story if she does poorly.  Early contests are way more about momentum and narrative-setting than delegate math, and Michigan being early is only downside for Whitmer in that respect. 

That being said, Whitmer and Newsom are both lame candidates.  Newsom comes off as "Mr. Coastal Elite" while Whitmer probably wouldn't have enough appeal among Southern Black voters to win.  My money is on Raphael Warnock. 

Warnock/Shapiro or Warnock/Gallego seem like pretty good GE tickets!

[Zedonathin2020]

Whitmer=Newsom>Anybody else

[Aurelius2]

Whitmer. Newsom will never win a national election, primary or general.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Newsom. Whitmer is the dem DeSantis

[SWE]

Warnock I think is the path of least resistance if not Harris, but it's really anyone's guess

[MABA 2020]

Whitmer

[MarkD]

Still Buttigieg.

^^^

[Senator Incitatus]

People will really start talking about Gallego if he makes it to the senate next year (as I think he does), but I think he waits a while knowing that Democrats' mandate would be slipping in third and fourth consecutive terms as things continue deteriorating in this country. He would be tailor-made for 2032 if a Republican beat Harris in 2028.

We're long past overdue for a Democratic candidate who makes a serious bid anchored around Hispanic-American (specifically Mexican-American) support; if Gallego otherwise runs as a sort of leftist-populist candidate he could be a serious contender.

Bernie Sanders 2020.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

People will really start talking about Gallego if he makes it to the senate next year (as I think he does), but I think he waits a while knowing that Democrats' mandate would be slipping in third and fourth consecutive terms as things continue deteriorating in this country. He would be tailor-made for 2032 if a Republican beat Harris in 2028.

We're long past overdue for a Democratic candidate who makes a serious bid anchored around Hispanic-American (specifically Mexican-American) support; if Gallego otherwise runs as a sort of leftist-populist candidate he could be a serious contender.

Bernie Sanders 2020.

Had plurality support with Hispanics but, like Biden, his coalition was basically a swathe of the general population, with the major correlating factor being age.

[Alben Barkley]

Kamala Harris is not the likeliest nominee anyway.

I'll be all in on Beshear if he wins again, which incidentally would result in his term ending in 2027, just in time for a run.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Kamala Harris is not the likeliest nominee anyway.

I'll be all in on Beshear if he wins again, which incidentally would result in his term ending in 2027, just in time for a run.

It would be interesting to see how well he'd do in Kentucky in the general. Obviously barring some freak circumstance resulting in a wild realignment that happens in the next five years there's no chance he'd carry it outright but I could definitely see him overperforming quite a bit more then Mitt Romney did in Massachusetts in 2012.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think Kamala is a shoe in for the nomination. From all I've heard, she isn't a terribly popular VP. She'd do better than say Mike Pence is doing, but I think more likely than not she will not be the nominee if she runs.

[Mister Mets]

Hmm, thinking about this.

AOC is the progressive favorite. But I think she's overrated as a political talent.
Whitmer seems to be an establishment choice. It's going to be a hard primary for her to defeat a black woman who has been elected to national office.
Buttigieg is clearly set up for a future run, but he doesn't seem to have impressed the public all that much.
Gavin Newsom is a generic white coastal guy. I don't think that plays too well.
Pritzker is rich, but seems to appeal to progressive types.

If Andy Beshear wins a second term, he'll have a good electability argument.
Rafael Warnock is a political talent with a great backstory.

I'll go with Whitmer. I've got the sense the party wants a woman, and wants someone who is a strong general-election candidate.

[Devils30]

Hmm, thinking about this.

AOC is the progressive favorite. But I think she's overrated as a political talent.
Whitmer seems to be an establishment choice. It's going to be a hard primary for her to defeat a black woman who has been elected to national office.
Buttigieg is clearly set up for a future run, but he doesn't seem to have impressed the public all that much.
Gavin Newsom is a generic white coastal guy. I don't think that plays too well.
Pritzker is rich, but seems to appeal to progressive types.

If Andy Beshear wins a second term, he'll have a good electability argument.
Rafael Warnock is a political talent with a great backstory.

I'll go with Whitmer. I've got the sense the party wants a woman, and wants someone who heis a strong general-election candidate.

If Dems are smart they'd pick Gretch in '28 but it could be a mess of a primary. If I'm the GOP I wouldn't mind losing 2024, the odds of the Dems coalition cracking post-Trump are very high in this event.

You can see Kamala's team calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist and her trying to have it both ways with moderate pro-Israel Dems and the Hamas left. AOC meanwhile could raise a lot of money and have polls suggesting 25% of Dems will vote for a Youngkin/Kemp type over her. Combine this with good white, Jewish candidates like Whitmer, Shapiro the chance of the Dems shattering is quite possible. Not to mention a recession will happen between 2025-29.

[Fwillb21]

Whitmer, hands down! It is time for a woman president!