Who wins each chamber in Virginia?
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  Who wins each chamber in Virginia?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who wins each chamber in Virginia?
#1
Republicans win both		  
#2
Republicans hold the House, Democrats hold the Senate		  
#3
Democrats flip the House, Republicans flip the Senate		  
#4
Democrats win both		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: Who wins each chamber in Virginia?  (Read 823 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: September 13, 2023, 01:49:16 PM »
Who wins each chamber in Virginia in November? Republicans or Democrats?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2023, 09:43:24 AM by Skill and Chance »
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?

That’s probably the most likely thing.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2023, 10:09:29 AM »
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?

That’s probably the most likely thing.

Do you not see Democrats get above 50 seats?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2023, 10:18:36 AM »
Slight Dem tilt to both.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2023, 10:24:56 AM »
I say Democrats win both.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2023, 10:27:19 AM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 14, 2023, 10:09:29 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?



That’s probably the most likely thing.

Do you not see Democrats get above 50 seats?

Something that would indicate a R+3 to D+1 environment? My guess is that they win everything Biden+6-7 and above or under Youngkin+3-4. What does that get us?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2023, 10:28:39 AM »
I’m sticking with 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HOD.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2023, 11:09:03 AM »
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:27:19 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 14, 2023, 10:09:29 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?



That’s probably the most likely thing.

Do you not see Democrats get above 50 seats?

Something that would indicate a R+3 to D+1 environment? My guess is that they win everything Biden+6-7 and above or under Youngkin+3-4. What does that get us?

Depends.  They could reasonably win a Biden +5/Youngkin +5 seat with a college town while blowing a Biden +15/McAuliffe +5 majority-minority seat.  There's plenty of both types in the HoD.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2023, 11:15:44 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 11:09:03 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:27:19 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 14, 2023, 10:09:29 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?



That’s probably the most likely thing.

Do you not see Democrats get above 50 seats?

Something that would indicate a R+3 to D+1 environment? My guess is that they win everything Biden+6-7 and above or under Youngkin+3-4. What does that get us?

Depends.  They could reasonably win a Biden +5/Youngkin +5 seat with a college town while blowing a Biden +15/McAuliffe +5 majority-minority seat.  There's plenty of both types in the HoD.

Any seat that McAuliffe won in 2021 should be won by Dems this year.  I think Dems win the Petersburg seat and the Virginia Beach seat where I think your and my predictions differ.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2023, 11:20:19 AM »
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:27:19 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 14, 2023, 10:09:29 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?



That’s probably the most likely thing.

Do you not see Democrats get above 50 seats?

Something that would indicate a R+3 to D+1 environment? My guess is that they win everything Biden+6-7 and above or under Youngkin+3-4. What does that get us?

Gets them to 52 in the HOD and 23 in the Senate (I think they lose SD-17 and get only 22).
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2023, 11:48:00 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on September 14, 2023, 11:20:19 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:27:19 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 14, 2023, 10:09:29 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?



That’s probably the most likely thing.

Do you not see Democrats get above 50 seats?

Something that would indicate a R+3 to D+1 environment? My guess is that they win everything Biden+6-7 and above or under Youngkin+3-4. What does that get us?

Gets them to 52 in the HOD and 23 in the Senate (I think they lose SD-17 and get only 22).

So an R sweep would PROBABLY require an encore performance by Republicans.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2023, 12:44:02 PM »
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 11:48:00 AM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on September 14, 2023, 11:20:19 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:27:19 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 14, 2023, 10:09:29 AM
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2023, 10:06:32 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 14, 2023, 09:32:00 AM
Other: Senate 21D/19R (somewhat surprisingly, they lose the Loudoun Youngkin seat but win the Williamsburg Youngkin seat), HoD tied 50D/50R with no provision to break the deadlock (would have been a Dem majority without the Henrico district sex scandal).  Dramatically reduced margins in eastern Prince William and eastern Loudoun.  Perhaps a Dem only wins a Biden +25 district by 10?



That’s probably the most likely thing.

Do you not see Democrats get above 50 seats?

Something that would indicate a R+3 to D+1 environment? My guess is that they win everything Biden+6-7 and above or under Youngkin+3-4. What does that get us?

Gets them to 52 in the HOD and 23 in the Senate (I think they lose SD-17 and get only 22).

So an R sweep would PROBABLY require an encore performance by Republicans.

Yes probably something close to Youngkin’s 2021 performance statewide given that he won 52 HOD seats and 20 senate seats.  They may be able to afford a tie or like a less than one percent loss in the statewide vote, but it would be cutting it very close.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2023, 03:10:12 PM »
People underestimating Dobbs effect again (and in an off-off-year election entirely about turnout and motivation, no less)...

Dems comfortably exceed expectations in both chambers.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2023, 03:58:34 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on September 14, 2023, 03:10:12 PM
People underestimating Dobbs effect again (and in an off-off-year election entirely about turnout and motivation, no less)...

Dems comfortably exceed expectations in both chambers.

Well that would be nice to see.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2023, 04:45:37 PM »
Republicans win both.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2023, 05:19:22 PM »
Ds win
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