New Zealand has a decent chance for a megaquake this century

[LAKISYLVANIA]

one place also that should theoretically produce a megathrust quake or be able to is new zealand however weve not experienced one since humans settled it (what classifies as megathrust quake)
which is an earthquake near a deep trench and new zealand has them
this one and the kermadec subduction zone



hasn't had one that is like M8.5+ since humans settled new zealand (or at least the british)
mean time interval is calculated around 500 years ago and the last one is dated ∼520–470  yr before present



i don't think many people lived in new zealand in the year 1520 to witness it

waiting periods can be longer or less long because theres some variation of course, but usually the longer it takes for an earthquake to happen the more slip is generated and there might be some other external factors that trigger an earthquake earlier (or add more buildup over less time)
which is why they don't have a clock
because of the way stress buildup works, because for instance surrounding faults or surrounding segments their behavior
which might relief stress buildup or add more buildup

But there's still a decent chance that this one will happen soon or this century. Not a guarantee but imo quite likely still though.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

A tsunami from this location would hit the eastern parts of New Zealand the most, in case of an earthquake in the north & central zone most would go to antarctica (of the big impact of wave), with some perhaps going to Chile or South America. In case of the southern zone i think even more would be directed towards Antarctica, though the Zealandia banks might kill the momentum though of a tsunami to some extent. For ring of fire tsunami's, the starting point or location being New Zealand isn't theoretically the most impactful for locations outside of ofc New Zealand.

[CumbrianLefty]

i don't think many people lived in new zealand in the year 1520 to witness it

A few did, it is generally believed the first Maori arrived around two centuries earlier.

I wonder if they had any oral legends about it?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

i don't think many people lived in new zealand in the year 1520 to witness it

A few did, it is generally believed the first Maori arrived around two centuries earlier.

I wonder if they had any oral legends about it?

I wonder that too, but i'm not sure of it. Probably it does exist but a lot is lost in the fog and dating something based on oral legends is often hard.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

i don't think many people lived in new zealand in the year 1520 to witness it

A few did, it is generally believed the first Maori arrived around two centuries earlier.

I wonder if they had any oral legends about it?

Yes, there’s significant Māori oral tradition about Earthquakes and tsunamis that line up with the geological record. Though not as impressive as some Australian Aboriginal oral traditions that seem to line up with geological events up to 7,000-10-000 years ago.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

i don't think many people lived in new zealand in the year 1520 to witness it

A few did, it is generally believed the first Maori arrived around two centuries earlier.

I wonder if they had any oral legends about it?

Yes, there’s significant Māori oral tradition about Earthquakes and tsunamis that line up with the geological record. Though not as impressive as some Australian Aboriginal oral traditions that seem to line up with geological events up to 7,000-10-000 years ago.

Well to be fair, the Maori people didn't settle New Zealand for 7000-10.000 years, and in case of Australia, Australia is relatively speaking stable geologically. Though tsunamis can happen, they would mostly occur from earthquakes elsewhere in the world (in particular the eastern & southern parts of Indonesia could potentially have damaging tsunamis for the northern coast of Australia)