43rd British Columbia general election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By the 1960s 'Labour' had come to denote simply the trade union movement in Canada, following the contemporary American usage of 'Labor'. As the whole point of the NDP was to be a new social democratic party for the New Canada (as opposed to the old-fashioned, outmoded and obviously doomed CCF), the name would have been inappropriate as it would have implied a party of trade union interests, rather than a party aimed at the broad electorate. Whereas for THIGMOO the name did not just imply a link to the trade unions, but also the idea of representing 'the Labour interest' (i.e. the interest of the working man)¹ as something distinct from the two old parties.²

<sub>1. This was before 1918.
2. Let us politely ignore the fact that a) it almost immediately formed an alliance with one of them and b) soon incorporated a substantial group of Liberal parliamentarians into its own ranks as soon as the MFGB affiliated to the new party. This all made sense in the context of Edwardian politics, even if it looks odd now.</sub>

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Two new polls out from Research Co and Pollara continuing to show the NDP with a large lead and with the B.C Conservatives with an eight point lead over B.C United (nee B.C Liberals.)

There is apparently some kind of guessing game over whether the B.C NDP will call a snap election even as David Eby continues to reiterate that the NDP are committed to the fixed election date and have important legislation to get passed before that.

The logistics also back this up. Not only is David Eby's wife going to give birth sometime in the summer, but the party hasn't chosen a campaign manager, and most importantly, they haven't nominated a single candidate (except for maybe one or two incumbents, not sure.)

While it is true that the B.C NDP called a snap election in 2020 and appointed a good number of candidates (there were 7 contested nominations), historically the B.C NDP prides itself (as does the NDP across Canada) on holding local nominations with local and not appointed or recruited 'star candidates.'

While the NDP membership and supporters gave the B.C NDP a pass in 2020 due to Covid and likely due to the likelihood of a first ever landslide B.C NDP reelection, I think Eby and his team know he'd be pushing it trying to do that for a second straight time.

Interestingly, several recruited candidates won contested nominations in 2020 for the NDP, at the very least Grace Lore, Murray Rankin and Brenda Bailey.

The split with B.C United and the B.C Conservatives could mean the NDP winning in additional non traditional NDP ridings like maybe even Kelowna, so that should mean a battle for nominations and many new members. I also think the NDP would appreciate that.

However, the real reason I'm making this post is to mention that Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau is switching from running in the Cowichan Valley (she mentioned that her riding was split up in the redistribution) to running in Victoria against NDP cabinet minister Grace Lore, the former riding of Carole James.

What is it the kids say these days? "Tell me you want to lose without telling me you want to lose."

[mileslunn]

What will be interesting is which party comes in second or heck maybe even Greens form official opposition.  I am pretty sure BC United and BC Conservatives will merge before 2028 but whomever comes in second has upper hand and party will look more like that.

If BC United, maybe good in long term as Lower Mainland probably more receptive to them and while your pro-business type isn't exactly popular now, economic policy tends to go in cycles so at least will be able to win when economic conservatism becomes more popular even though unlikely will dominate way pro free enterprise coalition whatever it was called did in past.  Still will always be susceptible to a more right wing takeover and actually think keeping liberal name helped party before as MAGA type crazies see word liberal as a four letter word so they stayed out of power, but rest on centre-right cared more about policies than name so united right minus the crazies. 

BC Conservatives, at moment being populist and more out there seem better positioned to do well as lots of parties across Canada and globe like them doing well.  But with how urban, diverse, and educated BC is, its probably one of the worst provinces for right wing populism.  Will dominate Interior once merged but unlikely to do well in Lower Mainland.  In fact BC might follow path of California which was once a state GOP won most of the time but now is no longer competitive at any level.

That being said there isn't enough time left to merge or even cut a deal to not run candidates against each other.  And even if they did latter I highly doubt would get the combined.  Many BC Conservatives see BC United as another left wing party like BC NDP (they are not) and would just stay home if only choice was BC United.  By same token some more moderate types find BC Conservatives too extreme and would either stay home or plug nose and vote NDP.  A lot of the wealthy ridings BC Liberals used to dominate in Lower Mainland like Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano are eerily similar to your Romney-Biden counties in US.  It seems in US & UK your wealthy educated types are seeing big swings to left and I suspect it has little to do with becoming more economically left wing and more their disdain for right wing populism is stronger than dislike of left wing economic policies.  Even in Alberta, you saw this with some fairly well off ridings in Calgary almost going NDP and in Winnipeg NDP did win some and few didn't come closer than ever have before.

So if had a non-compete agreement, would maybe stop an NDP landslide, but NDP would still win a comfortable majority.  And dividing up ridings based on non-compete would be very messy and anger it would create probably would lead to many on other side just staying home and not voting at all.

[Flyersfan232]

What will be interesting is which party comes in second or heck maybe even Greens form official opposition.  I am pretty sure BC United and BC Conservatives will merge before 2028 but whomever comes in second has upper hand and party will look more like that.

If BC United, maybe good in long term as Lower Mainland probably more receptive to them and while your pro-business type isn't exactly popular now, economic policy tends to go in cycles so at least will be able to win when economic conservatism becomes more popular even though unlikely will dominate way pro free enterprise coalition whatever it was called did in past.  Still will always be susceptible to a more right wing takeover and actually think keeping liberal name helped party before as MAGA type crazies see word liberal as a four letter word so they stayed out of power, but rest on centre-right cared more about policies than name so united right minus the crazies. 

BC Conservatives, at moment being populist and more out there seem better positioned to do well as lots of parties across Canada and globe like them doing well.  But with how urban, diverse, and educated BC is, its probably one of the worst provinces for right wing populism.  Will dominate Interior once merged but unlikely to do well in Lower Mainland.  In fact BC might follow path of California which was once a state GOP won most of the time but now is no longer competitive at any level.

That being said there isn't enough time left to merge or even cut a deal to not run candidates against each other.  And even if they did latter I highly doubt would get the combined.  Many BC Conservatives see BC United as another left wing party like BC NDP (they are not) and would just stay home if only choice was BC United.  By same token some more moderate types find BC Conservatives too extreme and would either stay home or plug nose and vote NDP.  A lot of the wealthy ridings BC Liberals used to dominate in Lower Mainland like Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano are eerily similar to your Romney-Biden counties in US.  It seems in US & UK your wealthy educated types are seeing big swings to left and I suspect it has little to do with becoming more economically left wing and more their disdain for right wing populism is stronger than dislike of left wing economic policies.  Even in Alberta, you saw this with some fairly well off ridings in Calgary almost going NDP and in Winnipeg NDP did win some and few didn't come closer than ever have before.

So if had a non-compete agreement, would maybe stop an NDP landslide, but NDP would still win a comfortable majority.  And dividing up ridings based on non-compete would be very messy and anger it would create probably would lead to many on other side just staying home and not voting at all.

there isnt the cpc doing well in polling in bc?

[Flyersfan232]

The CCF was an alliance of agrarian and labor interests.  The transition to the NDP occurred in the 1960s which strengthened institutional ties with unions but also tried to become more of a party for "liberally minded Canadians."  The hope was it would displace the Liberals but that never occurred. 

I mean, in some provinces they have. Just not nationally.

it did one time

[mileslunn]

What will be interesting is which party comes in second or heck maybe even Greens form official opposition.  I am pretty sure BC United and BC Conservatives will merge before 2028 but whomever comes in second has upper hand and party will look more like that.

If BC United, maybe good in long term as Lower Mainland probably more receptive to them and while your pro-business type isn't exactly popular now, economic policy tends to go in cycles so at least will be able to win when economic conservatism becomes more popular even though unlikely will dominate way pro free enterprise coalition whatever it was called did in past.  Still will always be susceptible to a more right wing takeover and actually think keeping liberal name helped party before as MAGA type crazies see word liberal as a four letter word so they stayed out of power, but rest on centre-right cared more about policies than name so united right minus the crazies. 

BC Conservatives, at moment being populist and more out there seem better positioned to do well as lots of parties across Canada and globe like them doing well.  But with how urban, diverse, and educated BC is, its probably one of the worst provinces for right wing populism.  Will dominate Interior once merged but unlikely to do well in Lower Mainland.  In fact BC might follow path of California which was once a state GOP won most of the time but now is no longer competitive at any level.

That being said there isn't enough time left to merge or even cut a deal to not run candidates against each other.  And even if they did latter I highly doubt would get the combined.  Many BC Conservatives see BC United as another left wing party like BC NDP (they are not) and would just stay home if only choice was BC United.  By same token some more moderate types find BC Conservatives too extreme and would either stay home or plug nose and vote NDP.  A lot of the wealthy ridings BC Liberals used to dominate in Lower Mainland like Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano are eerily similar to your Romney-Biden counties in US.  It seems in US & UK your wealthy educated types are seeing big swings to left and I suspect it has little to do with becoming more economically left wing and more their disdain for right wing populism is stronger than dislike of left wing economic policies.  Even in Alberta, you saw this with some fairly well off ridings in Calgary almost going NDP and in Winnipeg NDP did win some and few didn't come closer than ever have before.

So if had a non-compete agreement, would maybe stop an NDP landslide, but NDP would still win a comfortable majority.  And dividing up ridings based on non-compete would be very messy and anger it would create probably would lead to many on other side just staying home and not voting at all.

there isnt the cpc doing well in polling in bc?

It comes down to vote splits.  Right wing vote at both levels (Conservatives federally while BC United + BC Conservatives provincially) are in low 40s while left wing vote at both levels (Liberals + NDP + Greens federally and NDP + Greens provincially) are in high 50s at both levels.  Conservatives yes have a big lead federally in BC, but still more voting for centre-left parties than parties on right in both levels.  BC's current ideological split is about 58% progressive, 42% conservative so if you have 58% split amongst 3 parties while 42% conservative united behind one banner will have big lead.  By contrast 42% conservative split close to even while 58% progressive mostly behind one party with 10% for another, then landslide for NDP.  Main reason NDP has big lead provincially is they have more or less united BOTH federal NDP and federal Liberal voters under one banner while federal Conservative vote is split fairly equally between BC United and BC Conservatives.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

What will be interesting is which party comes in second or heck maybe even Greens form official opposition.  I am pretty sure BC United and BC Conservatives will merge before 2028 but whomever comes in second has upper hand and party will look more like that.

If BC United, maybe good in long term as Lower Mainland probably more receptive to them and while your pro-business type isn't exactly popular now, economic policy tends to go in cycles so at least will be able to win when economic conservatism becomes more popular even though unlikely will dominate way pro free enterprise coalition whatever it was called did in past.  Still will always be susceptible to a more right wing takeover and actually think keeping liberal name helped party before as MAGA type crazies see word liberal as a four letter word so they stayed out of power, but rest on centre-right cared more about policies than name so united right minus the crazies.  

BC Conservatives, at moment being populist and more out there seem better positioned to do well as lots of parties across Canada and globe like them doing well.  But with how urban, diverse, and educated BC is, its probably one of the worst provinces for right wing populism.  Will dominate Interior once merged but unlikely to do well in Lower Mainland.  In fact BC might follow path of California which was once a state GOP won most of the time but now is no longer competitive at any level.

That being said there isn't enough time left to merge or even cut a deal to not run candidates against each other.  And even if they did latter I highly doubt would get the combined.  Many BC Conservatives see BC United as another left wing party like BC NDP (they are not) and would just stay home if only choice was BC United.  By same token some more moderate types find BC Conservatives too extreme and would either stay home or plug nose and vote NDP.  A lot of the wealthy ridings BC Liberals used to dominate in Lower Mainland like Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano are eerily similar to your Romney-Biden counties in US.  It seems in US & UK your wealthy educated types are seeing big swings to left and I suspect it has little to do with becoming more economically left wing and more their disdain for right wing populism is stronger than dislike of left wing economic policies.  Even in Alberta, you saw this with some fairly well off ridings in Calgary almost going NDP and in Winnipeg NDP did win some and few didn't come closer than ever have before.

So if had a non-compete agreement, would maybe stop an NDP landslide, but NDP would still win a comfortable majority.  And dividing up ridings based on non-compete would be very messy and anger it would create probably would lead to many on other side just staying home and not voting at all.

There won't be a non compete agreement as the B.C Conservatives have already nominated 35 candidates (not including John Rustad) and the B.C United have already nominated 31 (about 1/2 incumbents.)

A non compete is also not in the interests of Rustad as he clearly hopes to shut B.C United out of the legislature even if it means winning only a handful of seats for his party mostly or entirely in the North. Causing Kevin Falcon to lose in Vancouver-Quilchena and defeating Shirley Bond in Prince George won't be easy, but if B.C United is reduced to a two seat rump (although that is enough for official party status) of two MLAs first elected in 2001, that would be close to wiping B.C United out.

It's interesting what Rustad's motivations might be. This is a guy who was first elected in 2005 who voted for both the carbon tax and SOGI and seemed to be a well respected conservative leaning B.C Liberal MLA and cabinet minister who gave no indication of being a right wing populist.

Neither, I should add, did Maxime Bernier, who was a libertarian but was satisfied as a mainstream Conservative cabinet minister or even Donald Trump who was a finger in the wind private citizen who advocated mostly mainstream views (although he did pay for advertising calling for the Central Park Five to be locked up.)

I think there are two possibilities with Rustad:
1.He's an opportunist who saw the election of Falcon to the leadership with Falcon's views of warmed over Reaganomics combined with 'woke' social views as an unpalatable combination for most British Columbians and recognized an opening, especially with the rise of the Federal Conservatives in British Columbia. WAC Bennett saw a similar opening (although this seems to be more limited in becoming the opposition right now rather than government) when he jumped to Social Credit in 1952.

2.He has a personal dislike of Kevin Falcon and simply wants to destroy him.

Of course, both can be true.

[lilTommy]

Furstenau's move to Victoria -Beacon Hill does not seem to make sense? maybe the Greens are sensing something in the Capital but that just doesn't seem like a shift is happening. Yes the new Cowichan Valley is more NDP friendly but it makes more sense for the Green leader to move to Juan de fuca-Malahat. No John Horgan and it now pulls in more Green polls around Malahat.

I think posters here are right, the Lower mainland will not vote BCC if they stick to social conservativism, and will instead favour a more moderate centre-right United BUT... there may be enough rightwing voters who shift and for the NDP to win all but about 3 seats (I still think Van-Quilchena will stay BCU, Delta South, West Van-Capilano). AND I'm giving the Greens West Van-Sea to Sky. I think there are more right-leaning voters in Abbostford to split the vote and for the NDP to gain those seats.
With the right split; I can only see Kootenay-Rookies, both Prince George, both Peace River, Nechako Lakes, 3 Kelowna seats (Kelowna Centre going NDP), Salmon Arm-Shuswap and maybe Kamloops-North Thompson (Kamloops Centre going NDP).

That's 13 seats for United and CONS, Greens 2; I think that is best case with the spilt we see going on.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Furstenau's move to Victoria -Beacon Hill does not seem to make sense? maybe the Greens are sensing something in the Capital but that just doesn't seem like a shift is happening. Yes the new Cowichan Valley is more NDP friendly but it makes more sense for the Green leader to move to Juan de fuca-Malahat. No John Horgan and it now pulls in more Green polls around Malahat.

I think posters here are right, the Lower mainland will not vote BCC if they stick to social conservativism, and will instead favour a more moderate centre-right United BUT... there may be enough rightwing voters who shift and for the NDP to win all but about 3 seats (I still think Van-Quilchena will stay BCU, Delta South, West Van-Capilano). AND I'm giving the Greens West Van-Sea to Sky. I think there are more right-leaning voters in Abbostford to split the vote and for the NDP to gain those seats.
With the right split; I can only see Kootenay-Rookies, both Prince George, both Peace River, Nechako Lakes, 3 Kelowna seats (Kelowna Centre going NDP), Salmon Arm-Shuswap and maybe Kamloops-North Thompson (Kamloops Centre going NDP).

That's 13 seats for United and CONS, Greens 2; I think that is best case with the spilt we see going on.

Delta South is made up of two communities, Ladner and Tsawwassen (the 'T' is silent) with roughly equal populations. I forget which is which, but one of them is kind of a throwback to the suburbs of the 1950s in the United States (or some of the U.S exurbs of today): semi rural with a large number of churches. It's something of a small enclave 'Bible belt.'

I don't see the B.C Conservatives winning Delta South, but I certainly think they could split the vote to allow the NDP to win with just over 30% in a three way race, as the NDP received in 2020 (and with the Greens getting about 10%.)

Given the religious right prevalence in Delta South, this isn't a riding where populist Conservatives should take too many votes from the NDP. When we look at the rise of the B.C Conservatives in general though, it shouldn't be overlooked that there are quite a lot of populists who vote for the NDP who also can find a B.C Conservative Party appealing.

You're right that B.C United should also hold onto West Vancouver-Capilano.

I agree with you on Furstenau that it would have made more sense for her to run in Juan De Fuca-Malahat, this is why I don't think it's a conspiracy theory (of mine) to believe that while she wants to lead the B.C Green Party in the next election, she doesn't want to get reelected.

Edit to add: I'd be surprised if Bruce Banman lost.

[lilTommy]

So far we have 15 MLAs who are not running for re-election:
- 5 NDP
Katrina Chen; Burnaby-Lougheed
George Heyman; Vancouver-Fairview
Selina Robinson; Coquitlam-Maillardville (no surprise there with the recent controversy)
Doug Routley; Nanaimo-North Cowichan
Nicholas Simons; Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Routley and Simons are 2005 crew so it's almost 20 years elected for them

- 10 BCU
Dan Ashton; Penticton
Doug Clovechok; Columbia River-Revelstoke
Mike de Jong; Abbotsford West (1994! going out at 30 years not bad)
Karin Kirkpatrick; West Vancouver-Capilano
Greg Kyllo; Shuswap
Norm Letnick; Kelowna-Lake Country   
Mike Morris; Prince George-Mackenzie
Ellis Ross; Skeena
Ben Stewart; Kelowna West
Jordan Sturdy; West Vancouver-Sea to Sky


Nomination news:
NDP
> Vancouver-Little Mountain (new seat): looks like we have current City Councillor Christine Boyle running against former City Councillor Andrea Reimer for the NDP nomination here.

> Powell River-Sunshine Coast; 5! people are running for the nomination
-Amanda Amaral, current School District Trustees chair
-Randene Neill, former Global BC journalist
-Jäger Rosenberg, Secondary School student and air cadet;
-Jacquie Shields, president of the Sunshine Coast Teachers Association;
-Darnelda Siegers, previous mayor of Sechelt and previous Sunshine Coast Regional District chair.

>West Vanouver-Sea-to-Sky: Whistler Councillor Jen Ford has announced.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

So far we have 15 MLAs who are not running for re-election:
- 5 NDP
Katrina Chen; Burnaby-Lougheed
George Heyman; Vancouver-Fairview
Selina Robinson; Coquitlam-Maillardville (no surprise there with the recent controversy)
Doug Routley; Nanaimo-North Cowichan
Nicholas Simons; Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Routley and Simons are 2005 crew so it's almost 20 years elected for them

- 10 BCU
Dan Ashton; Penticton
Doug Clovechok; Columbia River-Revelstoke
Mike de Jong; Abbotsford West (1994! going out at 30 years not bad)
Karin Kirkpatrick; West Vancouver-Capilano
Greg Kyllo; Shuswap
Norm Letnick; Kelowna-Lake Country
Mike Morris; Prince George-Mackenzie
Ellis Ross; Skeena
Ben Stewart; Kelowna West
Jordan Sturdy; West Vancouver-Sea to Sky


Nomination news:
NDP
> Vancouver-Little Mountain (new seat): looks like we have current City Councillor Christine Boyle running against former City Councillor Andrea Reimer for the NDP nomination here.

> Powell River-Sunshine Coast; 5! people are running for the nomination
-Amanda Amaral, current School District Trustees chair
-Randene Neill, former Global BC journalist
-Jäger Rosenberg, Secondary School student and air cadet;
-Jacquie Shields, president of the Sunshine Coast Teachers Association;
-Darnelda Siegers, previous mayor of Sechelt and previous Sunshine Coast Regional District chair.

>West Vanouver-Sea-to-Sky: Whistler Councillor Jen Ford has announced.

I wasn't aware of this, but according to Keith Baldrey on this morning's Baldrey's beat on CKNW, the B.C Conservatives and B.C United have been appointing many candidates whereas, as we see here, it looks like the B.C NDP is returning to its tradition of local candidates running for the nomination voted on by local constituency members.

Baldrey was on with host Rob Fai, who has a background in communications but not in 'journalism' as he was the long time radio announcer for the local Vancouver Canadians minor league baseball team. I think Fai is a breath of fresh air compared to normal host Mike Smyth who is constantly looking for the most sensationalist and cynical explanations.

[Hatman 🍁]

So we've got a Vision Vancouver vs. OneCity nomination battle in Vancouver-Little Mountain? :-P

It won't be good for Vancouver City Council if Boyle wins, since she's the only progressive/non Green member of council. I wonder if a by-election is held, would One City win? The race would be at-large across the city, so it would be a referendum on mayor Sim.

[DL]

So we've got a Vision Vancouver vs. OneCity nomination battle in Vancouver-Little Mountain? :-P

It won't be good for Vancouver City Council if Boyle wins, since she's the only progressive/non Green member of council. I wonder if a by-election is held, would One City win? The race would be at-large across the city, so it would be a referendum on mayor Sim.

Another of the many reasons wy electing city councillors At Large is so absurd - the fact that anytime a vacancy occurs on Vancouver city council - it has to be fllled through a byelection across the entire City of Vancouver - ridiculous!!

[Hatman 🍁]

So we've got a Vision Vancouver vs. OneCity nomination battle in Vancouver-Little Mountain? :-P

It won't be good for Vancouver City Council if Boyle wins, since she's the only progressive/non Green member of council. I wonder if a by-election is held, would One City win? The race would be at-large across the city, so it would be a referendum on mayor Sim.

Another of the many reasons wy electing city councillors At Large is so absurd - the fact that anytime a vacancy occurs on Vancouver city council - it has to be fllled through a byelection across the entire City of Vancouver - ridiculous!!

It is ridiculous, but Vancouverites love it for some reason. They think adopting wards would make council much more parochial.

[DL]

So we've got a Vision Vancouver vs. OneCity nomination battle in Vancouver-Little Mountain? :-P

It won't be good for Vancouver City Council if Boyle wins, since she's the only progressive/non Green member of council. I wonder if a by-election is held, would One City win? The race would be at-large across the city, so it would be a referendum on mayor Sim.

From what I have heard Vancouver city council already takes the cake for being the most parochial and NIMBY-oriented city council of any major city in Canada - hard to see how it could be any worse if they had a ward system!

Another of the many reasons wy electing city councillors At Large is so absurd - the fact that anytime a vacancy occurs on Vancouver city council - it has to be fllled through a byelection across the entire City of Vancouver - ridiculous!!

It is ridiculous, but Vancouverites love it for some reason. They think adopting wards would make council much more parochial.

[Hatman 🍁]

I get the argument that replacing one flawed system with another isn't really an improvement (it actually is in this case), but I don't think it's currently legal for Vancouver to adopt any other electoral system. One thing I wish the BC government would do is allow for municipalities to experiment with electoral reform.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I get the argument that replacing one flawed system with another isn't really an improvement (it actually is in this case), but I don't think it's currently legal for Vancouver to adopt any other electoral system. One thing I wish the BC government would do is allow for municipalities to experiment with electoral reform.

I don't know what you mean by not 'currently legal.' The only thing is that there are two provincial acts on municipal governments, the one for the rest of the province and the one for the city of Vancouver called the Vancouver Charter.

Presently the city of Vancouver has called on the provincial government to amend the Vancouver Charter to get rid of its elected park board and replace it with a board appointed by the city.

The provincial government had set some conditions for the city of Vancouver to meet for the province to amend the Vancouver Charter, apparently mainly that the city get buy in from the nearby indigenous communities, which the city has since received.

OT: The opposition to this is a clear case of status quo bias given that the opponents have argued this would create a 'democratic deficit.' Logically given that Vancouver is the only city in British Columbia (never mind the rest of the world) to have an elected park board, every other B.C city must presently have a 'democratic deficit.'

Early behavioral economics experiments showed that people react differently to losing something than to not getting something they were promised but never had (I think that's what it was and I forget the name given to this phenomena) so, there is no question status quo bias is real.

Taken on the merits., I think it's hard to argue with Mayor Ken Sim that the elected parks board is nothing more than another layer of bureaucracy that slows implementation of city policy down.

In addition to parks obviously the parks board also has shared jurisdiction with the council on such things as community centers.

[Hatman 🍁]

I get the argument that replacing one flawed system with another isn't really an improvement (it actually is in this case), but I don't think it's currently legal for Vancouver to adopt any other electoral system. One thing I wish the BC government would do is allow for municipalities to experiment with electoral reform.

I don't know what you mean by not 'currently legal.' The only thing is that there are two provincial acts on municipal governments, the one for the rest of the province and the one for the city of Vancouver called the Vancouver Charter.

Not talking at all about the park boards, I'm referring to if the city wanted to adopt proportional representation or STV to elect its councillors, it's not allowed to because of provincial legislation. Its only choices are status quo or wards.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I get the argument that replacing one flawed system with another isn't really an improvement (it actually is in this case), but I don't think it's currently legal for Vancouver to adopt any other electoral system. One thing I wish the BC government would do is allow for municipalities to experiment with electoral reform.

I don't know what you mean by not 'currently legal.' The only thing is that there are two provincial acts on municipal governments, the one for the rest of the province and the one for the city of Vancouver called the Vancouver Charter.

Not talking at all about the park boards, I'm referring to if the city wanted to adopt proportional representation or STV to elect its councillors, it's not allowed to because of provincial legislation. Its only choices are status quo or wards.

I brought up the parks board because it's an example of how the province would have to amend the Vancouver Charter. I wasn't aware those were the only two options, but it's not like the Vancouver Charter is set in stone and it's very unlikely the province would impede if the city wanted the change as we see with the parks board. The province, as with the parks board may have some broader concerns it might insist the city meet (I can't imagine what that would be here.) For pure speculation I suppose the province might have a problem with STV in terms of the transparency of the vote count.

[mileslunn]

Two polls out with very different results

Angus Reid https://angusreid.org/bc-spotlight-election-2024-rustad-falcon-eby/#gsc.tab=0

NDP 43%
BCU 22%
BCC 22%
GRN 12%

Mainstreet https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/mainstreet-british-columbia-march-2024-public/

NDP 40%
BCC 34%
BCU 15%
GRN 10%

So NDP is within margin of error in two but split on right radically different.  Angus-Reid would result in NDP landslide while Mainstreet would result in BC Conservatives forming official opposition and momentum suggests upset while very unlikely not impossible.  Probably need a third one in field to see who is right.  NDP still heavily favoured to win, but they have some vulnerabilities.  Rebranding for BC Liberals has been a massive flop.  BC Conservatives I suspect doing well more due to riding off coattails of federal party but quite skeptical they can crack 30% as when come under more scrutiny suspect fall back.  Still if Angus-Reid is final outcome likely merger and new leader with neither having an edge.  If Mainstreet correct possible BC United implodes and BC Conservatives become the new centre-right coalition.  Being more right wing and populists, probably will struggle to achieve same success in Lower Mainland BC Liberals did.

[MaxQue]

Two polls out with very different results

Angus Reid https://angusreid.org/bc-spotlight-election-2024-rustad-falcon-eby/#gsc.tab=0

NDP 43%
BCU 22%
BCC 22%
GRN 12%

Mainstreet https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/mainstreet-british-columbia-march-2024-public/

NDP 40%
BCC 34%
BCU 15%
GRN 10%

So NDP is within margin of error in two but split on right radically different.  Angus-Reid would result in NDP landslide while Mainstreet would result in BC Conservatives forming official opposition and momentum suggests upset while very unlikely not impossible.  Probably need a third one in field to see who is right.  NDP still heavily favoured to win, but they have some vulnerabilities.  Rebranding for BC Liberals has been a massive flop.  BC Conservatives I suspect doing well more due to riding off coattails of federal party but quite skeptical they can crack 30% as when come under more scrutiny suspect fall back.  Still if Angus-Reid is final outcome likely merger and new leader with neither having an edge.  If Mainstreet correct possible BC United implodes and BC Conservatives become the new centre-right coalition.  Being more right wing and populists, probably will struggle to achieve same success in Lower Mainland BC Liberals did.

The Mainstreet one is a push poll, asking for federal intentions first and then asking for provincial, stating that Poilievre supports the Conservatives.

[mileslunn]

Two polls out with very different results

Angus Reid https://angusreid.org/bc-spotlight-election-2024-rustad-falcon-eby/#gsc.tab=0

NDP 43%
BCU 22%
BCC 22%
GRN 12%

Mainstreet https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/mainstreet-british-columbia-march-2024-public/

NDP 40%
BCC 34%
BCU 15%
GRN 10%

So NDP is within margin of error in two but split on right radically different.  Angus-Reid would result in NDP landslide while Mainstreet would result in BC Conservatives forming official opposition and momentum suggests upset while very unlikely not impossible.  Probably need a third one in field to see who is right.  NDP still heavily favoured to win, but they have some vulnerabilities.  Rebranding for BC Liberals has been a massive flop.  BC Conservatives I suspect doing well more due to riding off coattails of federal party but quite skeptical they can crack 30% as when come under more scrutiny suspect fall back.  Still if Angus-Reid is final outcome likely merger and new leader with neither having an edge.  If Mainstreet correct possible BC United implodes and BC Conservatives become the new centre-right coalition.  Being more right wing and populists, probably will struggle to achieve same success in Lower Mainland BC Liberals did.

The Mainstreet one is a push poll, asking for federal intentions first and then asking for provincial, stating that Poilievre supports the Conservatives.

I tend to believe Angus-Reid numbers more although I suspect during campaign centre-right voters likely do swing mostly towards one of two parties, but which one is unclear.  However I don't think it will be enough to beat NDP.  Even if right united I still think NDP would win albeit in that scenario would be a reduced majority from 2020 whereas with split likely a larger majority than 2020.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

NDP 2012 byelection winner and Chilliwack-Hope MLA from 2012-2013 Gwen O'Mahony is the B.C Conservative nominee for Nanaimo-Lantzville.

Nanaimo is something of an NDP stronghold, but it's also an area that has supported populist right wing types in the past.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently she became a TERF

[DL]

NDP 2012 byelection winner and Chilliwack-Hope MLA from 2012-2013 Gwen O'Mahony is the B.C Conservative nominee for Nanaimo-Lantzville.

Nanaimo is something of an NDP stronghold, but it's also an area that has supported populist right wing types in the past.

She also ran for a federal NDP nomination as recently as 2019. Usually when people swing wildly from left to far right either they are a TERF or they were anti-vaxxers who got radicalized during the pandemic and joined convoy protests etc...